Finland's top three political parties — the governing National Coalition (NCP) and Finns parties, as well as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) — all saw slight increases in their support in Yle's latest poll of voter sentiment.
The results consolidates the three parties' position at the top of the latest survey.
The SDP saw the recent decline in its support reversed in the latest poll, as it registered a slight increase in voter backing of 0.3 percent to leave the main opposition party in second place on the poll with 20.4 percent share.
The NCP, led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, retained its lead with 21.6 percent of voter support, while the Finns Party stayed in third place with 15.9 percent.
The latest poll reflects typical summertime results with minimal change, according to Tuomo Turja, Research Director at pollster Taloustutkimus.
"All changes fall within the margin of error. The top three parties have slightly increased their support but remain at similar levels as before," he said.
SDP no longer losing support to the Left
Turja also noted that support for the SDP, which has steadily dropped from 24.4 percent in May, has now stabilised.
In the previous poll, the SDP lost female supporters to the Left Alliance, but Turja noted a change in the trend now.
"The Left's support among women remains relatively high but has decreased from the previous poll. The SDP’s support among women is slightly rising," he said.
The timing of the controversial deportation law vote during the polling period momentarily impacted the performance of different parties. The government-backed law was passed in parliament in mid-July.
The opposition SDP, which supported the government in the backing of the bill, saw its support drop in the weeks after the vote, Turja noted.
The Left Alliance, which voted against the law, meanwhile saw its support stabilise in the weeks following the vote, while the Green Party also saw a bump in its backing having also opposed the controversial law change.
Finns Party losing long-term support
Support for the Finns Party has fallen by 4.2 percentage points since the spring 2023 elections, and while it bounced back in the most recent poll, the party was last month polling at 5.3 percentage points below its election result.
According to Turja, the long-term decline in support for the Finns is particularly visible among the working population.
"The Finns have long been the most voted and most popular party among the working population. At the moment, however, the SDP and Finns are tied in support among the working population," he said.
Government support falls below 45 percent
Support for the governing parties has been declining over the long term. Although there was a slight uptick in the latest poll, support remains at 44.8 percent.
The decline which began in late spring is largely due to a decrease in support for the Finns Party, according to Turja.
Meanwhile, over the long term, the Left and Greens, which performed poorly in the parliamentary elections, have increased their support.
With the exception of two polls, Petteri Orpo's government has consistently been less popular than Juha Sipilä's (Centre) government over a similar time period. The gap in popularity between Antti Rinne–Sanna Marin's (SDP) government and the current administration has now exceeded ten percentage points.
Taloustutkimus interviewed 2,497 people between 8 July to 6 August, 2024, to compile the poll, with 1,827 stating their party preferences. The margin of error is ± 2.0 percentage points.
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