Business Cycles

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Ship demolition market helps to balance over supply in shipping market. Some factors accelerate and some factors slow down this process. Freight revenues are one of the most important factor that directly affect this process. Because even the old and obsolete ships can survive and carry out their operations profitably in buoyant market with high freight rates. In this context, this study aims to contribute existing literature by presenting an econometric analysis of the relationship between freight revenues and ship disposal decisions. Total tonnage sent to the demolition and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) variables are chosen, and annual data between 1985 and 2015 is used in the model. BDI is selected as a representative of freight revenues due to data constraint. Total tonnage sent to the scrapping is taken as a result of the decision to send ships to disposal. Correlation and regression analysis are conducted to determine the econometric relationship between variables. The results verifies the negative relationship between freight revenues and vessel disposal decisions.

In the aftermath of World War II, the world's economies exhibited very different rates of economic recovery. We provide evidence that those countries that caught up the most with the U.S. in the postwar period are those that also saw an acceleration in the speed of adoption of new technologies. This acceleration is correlated with the incidence of U.S. economic aid and technical assistance in the same period. We interpret this as supportive of the interpretation that technology transfers from the U.S. to Western European countries and Japan were an important factor in driving growth in these recipient countries during the postwar decades.

We use the framework implicit in the model of inflation by Shone (1997) to address the analytical properties of a simple dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand (AS-AD) model and solve it numerically. The model undergoes a bifurcation as its steady state smoothly interchanges stability depending on the relation between the sensitivity of the demand for liquidity to variations in the interest rate and the way expectations on inflation are formed based on real output fluctuations. Using code embedded into a unique function in Matlab, we plot the numerical solutions of the model and simulate different dynamic adjustments using different parameter values. The same function also accommodates for the implementation of different policy shocks: monetary policy shocks through changes in the growth rate of money supply, fiscal policy shocks due to variations in public spending and in the exogenous tax rate, and supply side shocks as given by changes in the level of natural output.

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in agents' estimates of these fundamentals (noise). We use a simple forward-looking model of consumption to address some methodological issues:

The weakening of the world economy, as well as the economies of high-income OECD countries, in comparison with the 2000s and even the 2010s, fits perfectly into the concept of a more crisis-depressive phase of the development in the global economy in the downswing phases of Kondratieff waves. Accordingly, at the moment we are experiencing the downswing phase of the fifth Kondratieff wave . We proceed from the fact that the governments and financial authorities of high-income OECD countries and China are not ready to let the recession spread in a natural way, but intend to support thousands of economically doomed enterprises and unprofitable projects, greatly increasing injection of money into the economy and supporting low, zero and even negative interest rates (which allows simultaneously and with less effort to support the rapid growth of the national debt). Hence it can be expected that the new medium-term (7–11 years) Juglar cycle will last longer than usual.

Настоящее издание является четвертым выпуском ежегодника «Кондратьевские волны». Первые два раздела ежегодника дают достаточно широкую палитру
разных подходов к современным крупномасштабным экономическим, технологиче-
ским и социальным проблемам, в том числе на основе использования методологий,
разработанных Н. Д. Кондратьевым, показывая их большой прогностический потен-
циал.
Настоящий выпуск ежегодника не случайно имеет подзаголовок «Наследие
и современность». С него начинается регулярная публикация разделов «Наследие» и
«Кондратьевская энциклопедия». В «Наследии» будут опубликованы малоизвестные
или ставшие раритетами работы Кондратьева, а также воспоминания о выдающихся
и значимых ученых, архивистах и других людях, которые внесли вклад в кондрать-
евскую тематику.
В настоящем выпуске в этот раздел включены две малоизвестные, но очень ин-
тересные работы Н. Д. Кондратьева (в том числе его очерк об одном из своих учите-
лей – М. И. Туган-Барановском, 150-летие которого отмечается в 2015 г.), а также
статья о С. М. Меньшикове, выдающемся советском экономисте, который одним из
первых начал возрождать идеи Кондратьева в СССР после долгих лет забвения.
В разделе «Кондратьевская энциклопедия» мы публикуем первые статьи из бу-
дущей энциклопедии.
Альманах будет полезен экономистам и обществоведам, широкому кругу читателей, интересующихся проблемами прошлого, настоящего и будущего мировой
экономики и глобализации.

Настоящий выпуск ежегодника является третьим из новой серии альманахов «Кондратьевские волны», начатой в 2012 г. Он имеет подзаголовок «Длинные и среднесрочные циклы». В ежегоднике с разных сторон исследуются аспекты связи
между средними (7–11 лет) и длинными (40–60 лет) циклами. Это тем более важно,
что данная проблема исследована недостаточно. Между тем именно в этом направ-
лении можно искать ответ на вопрос о причинах длительной депрессии мировой
экономики, в том числе и в настоящий период. Такой анализ также способен про-
лить свет на причины наиболее загадочного момента – достаточно стабильной дли-
тельности кондратьевских волн и их фаз (соответственно 40–60 и 20–30 лет). Альманах
содержит интересный материал о генезисе теории длинных циклов Н. Д. Кондратьева,
связи его теории с идеями его учителя М. И. Туган-Барановского, его современников
и оппонентов (Д. И. Опарина, С. А. Первушина и др.), об известной дискуссии 1926 г.,
о взглядах целого ряда знаменитых экономистов (Ж. Лескюра, У. Митчелла, Й. Шум-
петера и др.). Острая дискуссия о том, что же такое длинные циклы, об истоках длин-
новолновой теории делает ежегодник еще более интересным.
Альманах будет полезен экономистам и обществоведам, широкому кругу чита-
телей, интересующихся проблемами прошлого, настоящего и будущего мировой
экономики и глобализации.

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of the turning points in the transformation of the world order, as well as many political, social and other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly, we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative to look beyond the horizon of current events in order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In the present article some forecasts of technological, political, as well as social and economic development of the world are presented in a systematic manner. The authors present short-term (10-15 years), medium-term (20-50 years) and longterm (50-100 years) forecasts (with alternative scenarios) based on the theories of long cycles and respective technological paradigms, as well as on the theories of global aging, production principles, production revolutions, Great Divergence and Great Convergence. It is also important for the topic of the article to show that measures taken against the COVID-19 can significantly accelerate the development of social self-regulating systems, which will become one of the important parts of the Cybernetic revolution.

Wavelet analysis, although used extensively in disciplines such as signal processing, engineering, medical sciences, physics and astronomy, has not fully entered the economics discipline yet. In this survey article, wavelet analysis is introduced in an intuitive manner, and the existing economics and finance literature that utilizes wavelets is surveyed and explored. Extensive examples of exploratory wavelet analysis are given, most using Canadian, US and Finnish industrial production data. Finally, potential and possible future applications for wavelet analysis in economics are discussed.

Markov state switching models are a type of specification which allows for the transition of states as an intrinsic property of the econometric model. Such type of statistical representations are well known and utilized in different problems in the field of economics and finance. This paper gives an overview of MS Regress, a MATLAB toolbox specially designed for the estimation, simulation and forecasting of a general markov regime switching model. The package was written in an intuitive manner so that the user have at its reach a large number of different markov switching specifications, without any change in the original code. This document introduces the main functionality of the package with the help of several empirical examples.

Joseph Schumpeter’s economic thought is indissolubly linked to the study of entrepreneurship and innovation. In Business Cycles, the book planned to be ‘the crown of his work’, Schumpeter carefully crafted a theoretical framework in which both concepts are presented as the main engines of the cyclical economic evolution. This paper aims to offer a different view on this complex combination of economic theory, historical and statistical applied analyses which are today largely forgotten. Schumpeter’s theories of entrepreneurship and innovation are discussed within the general framework of his main intellectual legacy. Re-reading Schumpeter’s Business Cycles in the light of its scholarly reception, this study pays a special attention to some of the key reviews that critically addressed this book. The novelty of our approach lies in revealing the systematic emphasis placed upon the elements introduced by Schumpeter’s Business Cycles to his theories of innovation and entrepreneurship.

We present a class of convex endogenous growth models and analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. We interpret the exogenous growth rate of productivity as an endogenous growth rate of human capital. This perspective allows us to compare the strengths of the two classes of models. To highlight the mechanism that gives endogenous growth models the ability to improve upon their exogenous growth relatives, we study models that are symmetric in terms of human and physical capital formation-our two engines of growth. More precisely, we analyze models in which the technology used to produce human capital is identical to the technologies used to produce consumption and investment goods and in which the technology shocks in the two sectors are perfectly correlated.

Анализ длинных экономических циклов помогает понять долго-срочную динамику развития Мир-Системы, позволяет строить прогнозы, но также очень многое проясняет в понимании прошлых кризисов и современного глобального экономического кризиса. В статье рассмотрена история исследования К-волн, которые представлены как особая форма цикличности, возникающая в ин-дустриальный период, а также проведен анализ взглядов на их при-роду. Дается исторический и теоретический анализ динамики конд-ратьевских волн в рамках Мир-Системы, в частности анализирует-ся влияние длинноволновой динамики на изменения мирового ВВП в течение последних полутора веков. Показываются взаимосвязи между кондратьевскими и жюгляровскими циклами. Статья осно-вана на большом статистическом материале, используется мате-матический аппарат, приведены многочисленные диаграммы и гра-фики. На основании проведенных исследований делаются некоторые прогнозы развития мировой экономики в ближайшие 10–20 лет. Завершает статью раздел, в котором высказывается предпо-ложение о том, что чередование фаз А и В кондратьевской волно-вой динамики значимо коррелирует с фазами флуктуаций во взаи-моотношениях центра и периферии Мир-Системы. Ключевые слова: циклическая динамика, жюгляровские циклы, кондратьевские волны, К-волны, мир-система, длинные волны, фа-зы длинных волн, мировая экономика, Николай Кондратьев, миро-вой ВВП, технологические инновации, центр и периферия, лиди-рующий сектор, технологическая система, технологический стиль.

Referat la seminarul nr. 16, din 22.V.2018 (https://youtu.be/D93iDP1EccM ) ALEXANDRU A. POPOVICI Ciclurile Kondratiev şi economia globală 1 Modele multinivel ale economiei Ciclurile Kondratiev sunt cicuri economice de 40-60 de ani, observate cu suficientă certitudine pe ultimii 200 de ani. Ele se manifestă la nivelul economiei globale şi în economiile ţărilor industriale dezvoltate, având o influenţă majoră asupra evoluţiei globalizării. Deşi ele se manifestă în toate sectoarele şi nivelele economice, cei mai mulţi cercetători pun aceste cicluri în legătură cauzală cu difuzarea inovaţiilor tehnologice majore. Pe de altă parte, ciclurile K. sunt in raporturi de co-determinare cu ciclurile Juglsar ale afacerilor, de 8-12 ani. Pentru înţelegerea mai bună a fenomenelor, vom schiţa un cadru conceptual mai abstract. Am adaptat aici o parte din lucrarea mea "Filozofia realităţii multinivel", II (2014).

While in the early 1930s Keynes and Hayek were the major figures in a heated academic debate about money and capital, in which Keynes also and especially involved the Italian Piero Sraffa, it might seem at first sight that the Austrian economist set aside an organic demolition of the ideas expressed in 1936 by his rival in the General Theory. Hayek himself, in the future, would regret not having devoted an organic work to criticising the new Keynesian theories. However, as demonstrated in Sanz Bas (2011), although it is not possible to find a debate such as the one on the Treatise on Money, Hayek’s subsequent works do include timely and reasoned criticisms as regards the main conclusions of the new Cambridge macroeconomics.
But the ‘Austrian knight’ of a new Vienna-Cambridge debate, in the subsequent decades, was the German economist Ludwig M. Lachmann (1906-1990), a student of Hayek at LSE during the 1930s and later a professor in Johannesburg and New York. Lachmann was one of the protagonists of the Austrian revival after 1974 and the founding leader of the ‘hermeneutic stream’, opposed by the Rothbardian stream.
Lachmann, defending Keynes’s subjectivism and expectation theory, revived the Vienna-Cambridge controversy, criticising not Keynes but his followers, in particular the ‘new’ Cambridge School, developed by Joan Robinson and Piero Sraffa. Lachmann’s life sight was to build a new economics paradigm, centred on the idea of market process, expectations and kaleidic society (Shackle); in order to do so he developed a deep attack toward the new Cambridge macroeconomics mainstream, arising from World War II ashes during the 1950s and 1960s. His polemic toward the ‘modern’ macroeconomics can be read in all his books and papers, but it is particularly evident in Lachmann (1973, 1986a).
His preferred targets were Sraffa and Joan Robinson, ‘guilty’, according to Lachmann, to overcome Keynes’s subjectivism and to develop a new Neo-Ricardian approach. The resulting macroeconomics is accused to be excessively formalist, ignoring the microfoundations that are at the very root of human action and choice.
But Lachmann’s attack was not only an epistemological one. He intensively tried to demolish all the pillars of the Cambridge macroeconomics: capital as aggregate, long run equilibrium, the absence of innovation and technological change and the conception of rate of profit. His starting point was an economics based on human expectations as the only possible source of human actions. A source, however, never at rest, and continuously influenced by technological change and changing information.
In conclusion, we will see how to extend the traditional Austrian theory of business cycle, taking in account Lachmann’s insight about expectations and technological change. We will try to demonstrate that, under such perspective, economic fluctuations are inevitable, even if the boom arises in the way that Austrian terminology labels ‘sustainable’. We will define natural cycle the cycle characterized by a liquidation crisis after a ‘sustainable’ boom.

We decompose the Danish business cycle into ten structural shocks using an openeconomy dsge model with infrequent determination of prices and wages which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. Consistent with the Danish monetary policy regime, we formulate an imperfect peg on the foreign exchange rate and analyse the resulting monetary transmission mechanism.

With contributions by John Bessant, Jean-Claude Burgelman, José Cassiolato, Giovanni Dosi, Wolfgang Drechsler, Gabriela Dutrénit, Christopher Freeman, Alfonso Gambardella, Marco Grazzi, Michael Hobday, William Janeway, Rainer Kattel, Jan Kregel, Helena Lastres, Bengt-Åke Lundvall, Lars Mjøset, Richard Nelson, Keith Nurse, Luigi Orsenigo, Carlos Pagola, Gabriel Palma, Erik S. Reinert, Claude Rochet, Howard Rush, Benjamin Sagalovsky, and Alexandre Vera-Cruz

Większość przygotowywanych obecnie opracowań na temat stabilności finansowej porusza kwestię kryzysu subprime, czyli światowego kryzysu finansowego. W jego trakcie pojawiły się (ponowniel problemy związane ze stabilnością systemu finansowego. Tym razem rynek, którego dotyczyły, nie był ograniczony do pojedynczego kraju czy grupy państw w jakimś regionie (jak było np. w przypadku kryzysów w Azji Południowo-Wschodniej w 1997 r.l, ale objął większość rozwiniętych finansowo krajów świata".

The conventional version of Austrian business cycle theory focuses on a temporary imbalance between natural and monetary rates of interest. When, because of the role of monetary authorities in defining the monetary rate, the two values are in a situation of imbalance, the resulting expansion stage is followed by a recession. On the other hand, if instead the expansive phase arises without any interference by monetary authorities but through re-adaptation of the productive structure to a modified structure of temporal preferences, a period of sustainable growth begins that will not be followed by a crisis. The purpose of this essay is to demonstrate, on the other hand, that because of profit-expectations and the combined action of Schumpeterian elements (imitations-speculations and the ‘creation of money’ by banks), even a so-called ‘sustainable’ boom will be affected by a liquidation and settling crisis. What distinguishes the latter situation from the conventional case of imbalance between monetary and natural rates is not the onset or otherwise of a crisis but, rather, its intensity and duration. We will define as natural an economic cycle characterised by a stage of expansion considered to be ‘sustainable’ in the Austrian theory but followed by an inevitable readjustment crisis.

This article addresses the Japanese Economic Miracle as a dichotomy between the Korean War and the Strong Fiscal Institutions biased on structural reforms during the nineteenth-century period. In analytical terms, the research framed social development studies driving for the several Japanese historical processes. For this purpose, quantitative data explains the most crucial Economic Policy factors for Sustainable Growth underlie the Comprehensive National Development Plan and the Post War events and legal actions influencing territorial development. Moreover, a crucial benchmark was CNDPs and their implications establishing balanced development on the industry, property rights, monetary and fiscal policy.