Hazard Mapping

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.

A plinian eruption occurred approximately 6500 yr ago at La Virgen Volcano, the youngest volcano of the Tres Virgenes Ž. Volcanic Complex TVVC , located in Baja California, Mexico. Deposits of the eruption suggest a sequence of events that started with the opening of the volcanic conduit, and development of a plinian eruption column up to 18 km in height. This eruption column produced a fallout deposit with a dispersal axis toward the southwest, an areal extent of about 500 km 2 , and 3 Ž. a minimum volume of 1.14 km. Vulcanian activity hydromagmatic followed the plinian phase, producing pyroclastic surge and fallout deposits. The eruptive activity ceased after a basaltic-andesite lava flow was emplaced closing the eruptive activity. Petrological and geochemical evidence indicates that the eruption was triggered by magma mixing processes. Our studies confirm that La Virgen is a dormant volcano with the potential for future violent eruptions. The present study provides important information for the construction of a volcanic hazards map. Significant hazards are presented to the population living within a distance of 30 km from the volcano, together with the interstate road connecting the entire peninsula of Baja California, which runs at a distance of only 3 km from the volcano. q 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

The first object of this study is to consider ground surface displacements that occurred due to Philippine Sea Plate movements in the adjacent area of Huatung Valley in Taiwan. In order to clarify the activity of Crustal Deformation in this area, we have previously performed repeat-pass Differential SAR Interferometry (D-InSAR) to estimate and then evaluate the displacement values by geodesic levering measurements. According to these previous results using successful ENVISAT/ASAR data. The displacement values ranged between -1.5 cm and +2.8 cm, which coincide on the active fault area. In order to confirm these obtained results, we are expecting to acquire and more detail processing of L-band ALOS/PALSAR interferograms. The second object of this study is aiming to apply the Triherence method developed by ENVISAT/ASAR data to generate the stable phase points to extract the small hazardous area of landslides. According to previous results, varying of stable phase point number that indi...

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

Deep deposits of the Mississippi Embayment, overlying the New Madrid Seismic Zone, present unique challenges for the estimation of local site effects on propagated ground motion. Limited information is available on the dynamic properties of these deposits. This paper develops generalized depth dependent modulus degradation and damping curves specific to the embayment deposits. Depth dependent small strain damping is estimated using weak motion recordings during the Enola earthquake, 2001. Modulus degradation and damping curves are further constrained using limited laboratory test data of embayment soils at low confining pressure. At high confining pressures embayment specific data is unavailable and test data from outside the embayment is used in developing the dynamic properties. The representative modulus degradation and damping curves are used in non-linear and equivalent linear one-dimensional site response analyses. A companion paper describes a large-scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis study in the Mississippi Embayment that integrates non-linear site effects. q

Intisari Tsunami merupakan gelombang laut yang dihasilkan oleh proses geologi bawah laut berupa letusan gunungapi, gempa bumi, longsoran serta jatuhnya meteor di laut (Surmayadi, 2012). Wilayah kepesisiran selatan jawa merupakan wilayah yang memiliki potensi tinggi terhadap bencana tsunami. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah melakukan pemodelan tsunami berdasarkan penginderaan jauh dan SIG. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah dengan bantuan analisis SIG. beberapa tahapan yang dilakukan adalah a) membuat data kemiringan lereng dari data DEM, b) membuat nilai roughness (n) dari data landuse, c) membuat model tsunami, dan d) menghitung luas kerusakan bangunan. apabila ketinggian Tsunami hingga mencapai 4,2 meter akan menimbulkan kerugian area bangunan yang mengalami kerusakan sekitar 43.974,5 meter 2 , sedangkan kerugian untuk sawah sekitar 42.400,7 meter 2. Sedangkan ketinggian Tsunami mencapai 10,4 meter, maka area yang bangunan yang mengalami kerusakan sekitar 113.084,7 meter 2 , sedangkan kerugian untuk sawah sekitar 944.69,6 meter 2.

Kata kunci: Tsunami, Penginderaan Jauh, SIG

A plinian eruption occurred approximately 6500 yr ago at La Virgen Volcano, the youngest volcano of the Tres Virgenes Ž. Volcanic Complex TVVC , located in Baja California, Mexico. Deposits of the eruption suggest a sequence of events that started with the opening of the volcanic conduit, and development of a plinian eruption column up to 18 km in height. This eruption column produced a fallout deposit with a dispersal axis toward the southwest, an areal extent of about 500 km 2 , and 3 Ž. a minimum volume of 1.14 km. Vulcanian activity hydromagmatic followed the plinian phase, producing pyroclastic surge and fallout deposits. The eruptive activity ceased after a basaltic-andesite lava flow was emplaced closing the eruptive activity. Petrological and geochemical evidence indicates that the eruption was triggered by magma mixing processes. Our studies confirm that La Virgen is a dormant volcano with the potential for future violent eruptions. The present study provides important information for the construction of a volcanic hazards map. Significant hazards are presented to the population living within a distance of 30 km from the volcano, together with the interstate road connecting the entire peninsula of Baja California, which runs at a distance of only 3 km from the volcano. q 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Deep deposits of the Mississippi Embayment, overlying the New Madrid Seismic Zone, present unique challenges for the estimation of local site effects on propagated ground motion. Limited information is available on the dynamic properties of these deposits. This paper develops generalized depth dependent modulus degradation and damping curves specific to the embayment deposits. Depth dependent small strain damping is estimated using weak motion recordings during the Enola earthquake, 2001. Modulus degradation and damping curves are further constrained using limited laboratory test data of embayment soils at low confining pressure. At high confining pressures embayment specific data is unavailable and test data from outside the embayment is used in developing the dynamic properties. The representative modulus degradation and damping curves are used in non-linear and equivalent linear one-dimensional site response analyses. A companion paper describes a large-scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis study in the Mississippi Embayment that integrates non-linear site effects. q

Although Thailand is not so prone to flooding compared to other countries in the Southeast Asia region, the country is usually faced with flooding problems every year with increasing severity attributed to climate change, including global warming. Many structural measures have been developed to overcome this problem. However, it is realized that structural measures have failed to prevent flooding completely due to unprecedented and unpredictable flooding events. Some flood protection structures, such as levees tend to increase the flood hazard levels with possible breach due to over-stressing resulting in increased damage. Under the circumstances, nonstructural measures are explored more towards sustainable mitigation. Flood hazard mapping through modelling, which helps analyse a variety of possible scenarios, has been the focus of this study. Nan municipality area in Nan province, Thailand, was selected for the study considering the severity of the past occurrences.

Cerro Machín is a dacitic tuff ring located in the central part of the Colombian Andes. It lies at the southern end of the Cerro Bravo-Cerro Machín volcanic belt. This volcano has experienced at least six major explosive eruptions during the last 5000 years. These eruptions have generated pyroclastic flows associated with Plinian activity that have traveled up to 8 km from the crater, and pyroclastic flows associated with Vulcanian activity with shorter runouts of 5 km from the source. Today, some 21,000 people live within a 8 km radius of Cerro Machín. The volcano is active with fumaroles and has shown increasing seismic activity since 2004, and therefore represents a potentially increasing threat to the local population. To evaluate the possible effects of future eruptions that may generate pyroclastic density currents controlled by granular flow dynamics we performed flow simulations with the TITAN2D code. These simulations were run in all directions around the volcano, using the input parameters of the largest eruption reported. The results show that an eruption of 0.3 km 3 of pyroclastic flows from a collapsing Plinian column would travel up to 9 km from the vent, emplacing a deposit thicker than 60 m within the Toche River valley. Deposits >45 m thick can be expected in the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks, while 30 m thick deposits could accumulate within the drainages of the Tochecito, Bermellón, and Coello Rivers. A minimum area of 56 km 2 could be affected directly by this kind of eruption. In comparison, Vulcanian column-collapse pyroclastic flows of 0.1 km 3 would travel up to 6 km from the vent depositing >45 m thick debris inside the Toche River valley and more than 30 m inside the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks. The minimum area that could be affected directly by this kind of eruption is 33 km 2 . The distribution and thickness of the deposits obtained by these simulations are consistent with the hazard map presented by INGEOMINAS (Geological Survey of Colombia) in 2002. The composite map of the simulated flow deposits suggests that after major explosive events such as these, the generation of lahars is probable.

At local level, tsunami hazard is usually described by inundations maps providing inundation depths and extension. However, many other parameters such as eddies, fast currents, erosion, receding seas, impact of breaking waves have effects on natural and human environment. Modern tsunami modelling tools can provide a part of these informations and allow producing hazard maps with multiple parameters. Nevertheless, a benchmark is necessary to qualify the capacity of the models for traducing the reality. A comparison of five modelling tools has been undertaken in the framework of SCHEMA Project, using a single set of data on an Island of Seychelles. A simulation of the 26th December 2004 Indian tsunami has been carried out on each model and simulated tide gauges have been compared to the Point la Rue Tide recorded tide gauge close to the Airport of Mahé Island. The inundation extension is also compared to the mapped Dec 2004 inundation. The results show that each model represent generally well the first waves for 2 or 3 hours but they almost all loose compatibility with reality beyond, whereas the real effects were recorded during 24 hours on the Seychelles. The modelled inundation can also vary significantly and introduce a high level of uncertainty on inundation depth and extents. This sets the difficulty to have trust in models simulations for long duration events especially in the aim of emergency planning after warning or confirmation of a real tsunami. After a first stage of qualification of models, a set of hazard parameters are produced for a given tsunami source. Each of these factors is represented by a map and simulated tide gauges complete the set of information describing the hazard. The operational hazard mapping scales ranging generally from 1/25000 to 1/5000 require using a higher ground resolution than what is generally used in most tsunami modelling software's. A ground resolution around 10m appears to be an optimal target. The uncertainty level is assessed and represented for some of the factors and land use features are added for a first representation of vulnerability. For the chosen location, the final global hazard map is produced by the extraction of each maximum tsunami scenario for some parameters with a potential use for coastal zone planning and management. Each tsunami scenario and its associated hazards are a tool for early warning, alert, crisis management and rescue operations by relief operators. Considering the rarity of tsunamis both in Seychelles and in the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic, the probability of occurrence is not considered as a relevant parameter in this first stage of the analysis.

Ce rapport contient le Plan de réduction du risques d'inondation de Tallé, un village administratif de la commune rurale de Gothèye, région de Tillabéri, Niger. Tallé (2 603 habitants en 2012, 0,5 km2 de surface bâtie en 2019) est situé le long de la rivière Sirba, près de la confluence avec le fleuve Niger. Le village est menacé par les inondations fluviales. Le plan est structuré selon l’ISO 31010. L’analyse intègre les connaissances locales et scientifiques. Le processus de planification est entièrement participatif. Les risque d’inondation est identifié et analysé. Les zones inondables suite au débordement de la Sirba et de reflux du fleuve Niger sont identifiées en fonction de trois scénarios de probabilité d’occurrence grâce à une modélisation hydraulique 1D. Les enjeux sont identifiés après une reconnaissance systématique de terrain. Huit mesures de réduction du risque sont sélectionnées et classées par ordre de priorité. L’analyse bénéfice/coût est utilisée pour évaluer l’intérêt de traiter ou d’accepter le risque. Le dispositif de suivi-évaluation est décrit. Le plan comprend règlement des zones inondables, le zonage règlementaire, les cartes des aléas et des enjeux, ainsi que des fiches décrivant chaque action prioritaire. --- (ENGLISH) This report contains the Flood Risk Reduction Plan for Tallé, an administrative village of the rural municipality of Gothèye, Tillabéri region, Niger. Garbey Kourou (2603 inhabitants in 2012, 0.5 km2 of built up area in 2019) is located along the Sirba River, close to the confluence with the Niger River. The village is threatened by fluvial floods. The plan is structured according to the ISO 31010. The analysis integrates local and scientific knowledge. The planning process is fully participatory. Flood risk is identified and analyzed. Areas inundated by the flood of the Sirba river and the backwaters of the Niger river are identified according to three river flood probability of occurrence scenarios through a 1D hydraulic modeling. Floodable assets are identified through a systematic field survey. Eight risk reduction actions are selected and prioritized. Benefit/cost analysis is used to assess the convenience of treating or accepting the risk. The monitoring and evaluation system is described. The plan consists of the flood zone regulation, hazard, assets, and zoning maps, and sheets describing each priority action.

It was found that the frequency of the landslide events in Thailand is increasing sharply for the last decade starting from 1996-2006. The assumptions of the cause of increasing number of landslide for the past decade are 1. Landslide actually occur more often 2. Mismanagement of land use in the hazard areas 3. Both reason as indicated. Landslide hazard zoning

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA(T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA(T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

The deterministic Stability INdex MAPping (SINMAP) model, which integrates a mechanistic infinite-slope stability model and a hydrological model, was applied to assess susceptibility of slopes in 32 shallowlandslide-prone watersheds of the eastern to southern areas of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. Input to the model includes a 10-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM), an inventory of storm-induced landslides that occurred from 1949 to 2006, and listings of soil-strength and hydrological parameters including transmissivity and steadystate recharge. The study area of ca. 384 km 2 was divided into four calibration regions with different geotechnical and hydrological characteristics. All parameter values were separately calibrated using observed landslides as references. The study used a quasi-dynamic scenario of soil wetness resulting from extreme daily rainfall events with a return period of 50 years. The return period was based on almost-90-year-long daily rainfall records from 26 raingauge stations in the study area. Output of the SINMAP model includes slope-stability-index-distribution maps, slope-versus-specific-catchment-area charts, and statistical summaries for each region. The SINMAP model assessed susceptibility at the locations of all 226 observed shallow landslides and classified these susceptible areas as unstable. About 55% of the study area was predicted as highly unstable, highlighting a critical island problem. The SINMAP predictions were compared to an existing debris-flowhazard map. Areas classified as unstable in the current study were classified as low-to-moderate and moderate-to-high debris-flow hazard risks by the prior mapping. The slope-stability maps provided by this study will aid in explaining the causes of known landslides, making emergency decisions, and, ultimately mitigating future landslide risks. The maps may be further improved by incorporating heterogeneous and anisotropic soil properties and spatial and temporal variation of rainfalls as well as by improving the accuracy of the DEM and the locations of shallow landslide initiation.

There are different natural hazard, among these different natural hazards flood are most devastating and frequently occurring calamities taking human lives and causing economic damages. This report has been prepared to present hazard analysis mapping of flood of Punyamata River as a project work of 4th year student. The main focus of this project work was to determine the Elements at risk of the Punyamata River and to create flood hazard zone mapping of following years return period (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100). This project work explores the element at risk of the study area. The user’s requirement is extracted by experts view in qualitative way and system requirements are extracted by practice. Data requirement for flood hazard mapping are extracted from expert’s view and literatures. The hazard class map was performed by flood simulation process. Contours can be extracted from the system for Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The hazard map of various years return period and effected buffer zones are the main outputs from the system.

An application of GIS for landslide hazard assessment using multivariate statistical analysis, mapping, and the evaluation of the hazard maps is presented. The study area is the Changunarayan VDC (8.19 km2) located in the central region of Nepal and listed on the UNESCOs world heritage site in 1979 A.D., which is under pressure of high construction activities. Data used to construct the landslide hazard maps were obtained from published works, topographical and geological maps, satellite images and aerial photographs and other digital sources. To determine the factors and classes influencing landsliding, layers of topographic factors derived from a digital elevation model, geology, and landuse/land cover were analyzed and the results were used for hazard mapping. Hazard map of the study area shows 15.13% area lies in the high hazard level, 53.87% on moderate hazard level and 28.53% in low hazard level.

IAEG Commission No. 1—Engineering Geological Maps—is developing a guide to hazard maps. Scientists from 17 countries have participated. This paper is one of a series that presents the results of that work. It provides a general review of GIS landslide mapping techniques and basic concepts of landslide mapping. Three groups of maps are considered: maps of spatial incidence of landslides, maps of spatial–temporal incidence and forecasting of landslides and maps of assessment of the consequences of landslides. With the current era of powerful microcomputers and widespread use of GIS packages, large numbers of papers on the subject are becoming available, frequently founded on different basic concepts. In order to achieve a better understanding and comparison, the concepts proposed by Varnes (Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice, 1984) and Fell (Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in Eastern Australua and their application 1992; Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Can Geotech J 31:261–272, 1994) are taken as references. It is hoped this will also add to the international usefulness of these maps as tools for landslide prevention and mitigation. Six hundred and sixty one papers and books related to the topic are included in the references, many of which are reviewed in the text. La Commission N°1 de l’AIGI ≪Cartes de géologie de l’ingénieur≫ réalise un guide sur les cartes d’aléas. Des scientifiques de 17 pays ont apporté leur contribution. Cet article est l’un d’une série d’articles relatant les travaux de cette Commission. Il présente les concepts de base de la cartographie de glissements de terrain ainsi qu’un panorama de l’apport des techniques SIG (Systèmes d’Information Géographique) à cette cartographie. Trois groupes de cartes ont été considérés: des cartes d’occurrence spatiale de glissements de terrain, des cartes d’occurrence spatio-temporelle et de prévision de glissements de terrain et des cartes d’évaluation des conséquences de glissements de terrain. A notre époque de développement de la micro-informatique et des logiciels SIG, de nombreuses publications sont produites sur ce sujet, avec différentes bases conceptuelles. Afin de faciliter compréhension et comparaisons, les concepts proposés par Varnes (Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice, 1984) et Fell (Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in Eastern Australua and their application 1992; Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Can Geotech J 31:261–272, 1994) sont pris comme référence. On espère que le travail réalisé rendra plus facile l’utilisation de ces cartes comme outil de prévention et de limitation des effets des glissements de terrain. Six cent soixante une articles et ouvrages relatifs au sujet traité son référencés en bibliographie, nombre d’entre eux étant appelés dans le texte de l’article.

IAEG Commission No. 1—Engineering Geological Maps—is developing a guide to hazard maps. Scientists from 17 countries have participated. This paper is one of a series that presents the results of that work. It provides a general review of GIS landslide mapping techniques and basic concepts of landslide mapping. Three groups of maps are considered: maps of spatial incidence of landslides, maps of spatial–temporal incidence and forecasting of landslides and maps of assessment of the consequences of landslides. With the current era of powerful microcomputers and widespread use of GIS packages, large numbers of papers on the subject are becoming available, frequently founded on different basic concepts. In order to achieve a better understanding and comparison, the concepts proposed by Varnes (Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice, 1984) and Fell (Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in Eastern Australua and their application 1992; Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Can Geotech J 31:261–272, 1994) are taken as references. It is hoped this will also add to the international usefulness of these maps as tools for landslide prevention and mitigation. Six hundred and sixty one papers and books related to the topic are included in the references, many of which are reviewed in the text. La Commission N°1 de l’AIGI ≪Cartes de géologie de l’ingénieur≫ réalise un guide sur les cartes d’aléas. Des scientifiques de 17 pays ont apporté leur contribution. Cet article est l’un d’une série d’articles relatant les travaux de cette Commission. Il présente les concepts de base de la cartographie de glissements de terrain ainsi qu’un panorama de l’apport des techniques SIG (Systèmes d’Information Géographique) à cette cartographie. Trois groupes de cartes ont été considérés: des cartes d’occurrence spatiale de glissements de terrain, des cartes d’occurrence spatio-temporelle et de prévision de glissements de terrain et des cartes d’évaluation des conséquences de glissements de terrain. A notre époque de développement de la micro-informatique et des logiciels SIG, de nombreuses publications sont produites sur ce sujet, avec différentes bases conceptuelles. Afin de faciliter compréhension et comparaisons, les concepts proposés par Varnes (Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice, 1984) et Fell (Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in Eastern Australua and their application 1992; Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Can Geotech J 31:261–272, 1994) sont pris comme référence. On espère que le travail réalisé rendra plus facile l’utilisation de ces cartes comme outil de prévention et de limitation des effets des glissements de terrain. Six cent soixante une articles et ouvrages relatifs au sujet traité son référencés en bibliographie, nombre d’entre eux étant appelés dans le texte de l’article.

Satellite remote sensing data, in addition to Geographic Information Systems (GIS), offers an excellent alternative to conventional mapping techniques in monitoring and mapping of geo-hazards areas. One of the most sustainable development projects in Egypt has been accomplished in Sinai, especially along and around the Gulf of Aqaba and the Gulf of Suez. Variations along the coastal zone of the Gulf of Aqaba have been identified through the analysis of multi-temporal satellite images with the aid of GIS analysis. The study area is subject to rapid and increasing changes in land-use/land-cover that resulting from natural and human activities such as flash flooding, seismic activity, landslides, and tourist and urban activities. This is in addition to the construction projects of roads, ports, PowerStation stations, mineral exploration, beaches, and tourist villages resulting from major environmental impacts. The current study aims to use Remote Sensing and GIS tools to investigate, monitor, and assess geo-hazards through the building of a geographical database. Several techniques have been developed over the last decade mostly to study the geological and geomorphologic characteristics of the terrain; land-use and land-cover changes. These are based on satellite imagery and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to determine the topographic features, and geo-hazards maps. It is concluded that integrated approaches to monitoring can successfully be used to assess the environmental impacts along the Gulf of Aqaba coastal zone.

This paper presents an overview of the use of lineaments in landslide hazard mapping. The lineaments are normally derived either from aerial photographs or satellite imagery. The relative advantages and disadvantages of digital image processing and manual (visual) lineament interpretation are discussed. Most researchers prefer the manual technique, despite the fact it is more time-consuming and subjective, as it allows a higher degree of operator control. Ways of increasing objectivity in the interpretation are suggested. It is hoped that lineament mapping will increasingly be incorporated in landslide hazard assessment hence the paper emphasizes the need for care and a proper understanding of these methods and their limitations. L’article présente une revue sur l’utilisation des linéaments pour la cartographie de l’aléa de glissement de terrain. Les linéaments sont normalement obtenus à partir de photographies aériennes ou d’images satellitaires. Les avantages et inconvénients des traitements numériques des images et des interprétations manuelles (visuelles) des linéaments sont discutés. La plupart des chercheurs préfèrent les techniques manuelles, malgré le fait qu’elles sont longues et subjectives, considérant qu’elles permettent un meilleur contrôle par l’opérateur. Des moyens d’améliorer l’objectivité dans l’interprétation sont suggérés. On peut espérer que la cartographie de linéaments sera incorporée de façon plus importante dans l’évaluation des aléas de glissement de terrain. C’est pourquoi l’article met l’accent sur la nécessité de bien maîtriser ces méthodes et connaître leurs limites.

Recently, the frequency of rain-triggered landslides in Thailand has been on the increase and has gained momentum, coincident with the effects of climate change. In this regards, the impact of landslide on roads and highways in the hilly and mountainous terrains has also increased. Non-structural landslide mitigation measures, including early warning and hazard mapping, as well as structural mitigation measures with the application of geosynthetics, have been exploited in localities where rain-triggered landslides are a potential threat to human life and property. For early warning, the use of critical Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) is proposed to be most appropriate. Furthermore, deterministic hazard mapping technique incorporating the modern day geospatial technologies can also provide a useful platform to analyze a number of scenarios including rainfall and land cover/land use variations. Finally, a parametric study on a designed and constructed reinforced soil slope with polyester polymer geogrids revealed that the stiffness of backfill is very sensitive to moisture contents or wetting due to rainfall which can influence the performance of reinforced slope structure.

The conventional means to record hydrological parameters of aflood often fail to record an extreme event. Remote sensingtechnology along with geographic information system (GIS)has become the key tool for flood monitoring in recent years.Development in this field has evolved from optical to radarremote sensing, which has provided all weather capabilitycompared to the optical sensors for the purpose of flood mapping.The central focus in this field revolves around delineation of floodzones and preparation of flood hazard maps for the vulnerable areas.In this exercise flood depth is considered crucial for flood hazardmapping and a digital elevation model (DEM) is considered to bethe most effective means to estimate flood depth from remotelysensed or hydrological data. In a flat terrain accuracy of floodestimation depends primarily on the resolution of the DEM. Riverflooding in the developing countries of monsoon Asia is very acutebecause of their heavy dependence on agriculture but any floodestimation or hazard mapping attempt in this region is handicappedby poor availability of high resolution DEMs. This paper presents areview of application of remote sensing and GIS in flood managementwith particular focus on the developing countries of Asia.

The vulnerability of urban areas and more so
informal settlements is augmented by the rapid pace
of urbanization coupled with the ever-increasing
population burden. In Mumbai this vulnerability of
the informal settlements is most acute and greatly
compounded by the location of these communities
that is often determined by their relative proximity
to livelihood, on neglected, marginalized spaces in
the city such as coastal zones, flood prone areas and
geologically unsafe slopes, as well as proximity to
dump yards, slaughter houses etc.
Moreover, such populations are subjected to a wide
gamut of health risks arising due to an absence of
planning and provisions of basic services by the
respective institutions. And hence the marginalized
areas coupled with a poor institutional and municipal framework, creates certain conditions which
entrap the poorest citizen in a cycle of despair.
These conditions alone do not attribute to an upsurge
in risk levels. Natural hazards driven by Climate
Change impacts result in the marginalized communities exacerbated vulnerability towards health risks
and life. Impoverished and migrant population are
more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
such as extreme rainfall events, flooding and water
logging, increase in summer temperatures or the
urban heat island effect.
Thomas Hobbes, in his book, “The Leviathan,”
describes life in the natural state as being “short,
nasty and brutish”. These existential conditions,
unfortunately, have become ‘natural’ and routine
for the marginalized population  in Mumbai - its
swelling ranks lured by Mumbai’s livelihood opportunities but cast aside in the concomitant planning
and governance challenges.
This Case Study of the communities living in
informal slums (Aadarsh Nagar, a neighbourhood
in Deonar), occupying marginal low-lying land
adjacent to the dump-yard, examines how these
harsh existential conditions are being exacerbated
through environmental forces (driven by climate
change) like flooding, water logging and urban
heat island effects, and specifically aims to establish
an interlink between climate change and health.
Further, it seeks to design some planning solutions
that can play an important role in ameliorating the
severe health outcomes suffered by Mumbai’s marginalized, forgotten population

More than forty years seismological studies in Albania have produced a huge material where are uninterruptedly recorded underground tremors of this country, documented and archived seismograms, collected information on felt and damaged earthquakes, carried out expeditions on active tectonic faults, investigated seismicity and seismotectonics , studied the characteristics of tremors and crust of Albania as well as evaluated and assessed the seismic hazard which is very important for building up of dwelling places and infrastructure of a country where earthquakes have a lot damage in the past and expected also to damage in the future. All these studies have a great value on the mitigation of earthquake effects and on reducing the damages these demoniac phenomena are able to cause.

SUMMARY Albania is a Balkan country with high rate of seismicity, and earthquake risk reduction has been an important, on-going socioeconomic concern. We adapt the experience and methods used for Canadian seismic hazard maps to present, for the first time, probabilistic spectral hazard maps for Albania. A revised catalogue of Albanian earthquakes, from 58 A.D. to 2000, with magnitude Ms>4.5

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused liquefac- tion-induced lateral spreading at Oceano at an unexpectedly large distance from the seismogenic rupture. We conclude that the liquefaction was caused by ground motion that was enhanced by both rupture directivity in the mainshock and local site am- plification by unconsolidated fine-grained deposits. Liquefaction occurred in sandy artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand and fluvial deposits. The largest and most damaging lateral spread was caused by liquefaction of artificial fill; the head of this lateral spread coincided with the boundary between the artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand deposits. Values of the liquefaction potential index, in general, were greater than 5 at liquefaction sites, the threshold value that has been proposed for liquefaction hazard mapping. Although the mainshock ground motion at Oceano was not recorded, peak ground acceleration was estimated to range from 0.25 and 0.28g on the basis of the liquefaction potential index and aftershock recordings. The esti- mates fall within the range of peak ground acceleration values associated with the modified Mercalli intensity VII reported at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) "Did You Feel It?" web site.

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event.

1] Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard, endangering human life and infrastructure in mountainous areas throughout the world. In many countries with seasonally snow-covered mountains, avalanche-forecasting services reliably warn the public by issuing occurrence probabilities for a certain region. However, at present, a single avalanche event cannot be predicted in time and space. Much about the release process remains unknown, mainly because of the highly variable, layered character of the snowpack, a highly porous material that exists close to its melting point. The complex interaction between terrain, snowpack, and meteorological conditions leading to avalanche release is commonly described as avalanche formation. It is relevant to hazard mapping and essential to short-term forecasting, which involves weighting many contributory factors. Alternatively, the release process can be studied and modeled. This approach relies heavily on snow mechanics and snow properties, including texture. While the effect of meteorological conditions or changes on the deformational behavior of snow is known in qualitative or semiquantitative manner, the knowledge of the quantitative relation between snow texture and mechanical proper-ties is limited, but promising developments are under way. Fracture mechanical models have been applied to explain the fracture propagation, and micromechanical models including the two competing processes (damage and sintering) have been applied to explain snow failure. There are knowledge gaps between the sequence of processes that lead to the release of the snow slab: snow deformation and failure, damage accumulation, fracture initiation, and fracture propagation. Simultaneously, the spatial variability that affects damage, fracture initiation, and fracture propagation has to be considered. This review focuses on dry snow slab avalanches and shows that dealing with a highly porous media close to its melting point and processes covering several orders of scale, from the size of a bond between snow grains to the size of a mountain slope, will continue to be very challenging.

The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper.

The Metropolitan Municipality of Izmir (Turkey) designated a steeply inclined area for the construction of buildings to house the participants of the Izmir University Olympic Games. Before the construction activities could start, engineering geological and geotechnical investigations had to be carried out in order to establish which zones in the area were suitable for safe constructions. Seismic studies, borings and laboratory tests yielded the data, which were used for preparing five hazard maps in a GIS environment. The construction activities based on the results of this complex investigation appeared successful. The engineering geological investigations included geotechnical measurements on core samples obtained from the boreholes (core drilling) and laboratory testing. The rock-quality designation (RQD%) values of the rock units were determined and used in the rock-mass classification (rock-mass rating method) as an input parameter and in the calculation of the bearing capacity of the various rock units. Geophysical surveys were carried out to determine the seismic velocity of the rocks at the site. A short overview is provided of the main problems that had to be dealt with, and of the successive steps taken to solve the engineering-geological problems. Determination of these problems is necessary for adequate land-use planning and construction activities.

This chapter presents research works carried out in developing the latest spectral hazard maps proposed as input for revision of Indonesian Earthquake Resistant Building Code, the SNI 03-1726-2002. Improvement in seismic hazard analysis and careful inclusion of recent seismic records were augmented. Seismic sources were modeled by background, fault, and subduction zones considering truncated exponential model, pure characteristic model or both. Several well-known attenuation functions were selected including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA). Maps of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Response Acceleration (SRA) for 0.2 s (short periods) and 1.0-s period for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were developed using PSHA. Additional geotechnical and tsunami hazard assessment researchs for Banda Aceh city, the capital of Aceh Province were also submitted. The results of site response analysis and liquefaction study at several points were utilized to generate contours of acceleration, amplification factor, design response spectra, and potential of liquefaction for Banda Aceh. The tsunami hazard study was conducted using mathematical simulation and modeling leading to estimate the potential tsunami that may occur in the future which covers tsunami inundation, run-up, and developing tsunami zonation map. The output of geotechnical and tsunami hazard assessment was then overlayed on top of the land use city planning in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database and used as criteria for tsunami warning system, an input in developing land use management for Banda Aceh, and enriching the basic regulation for new infrastructures and local building codes.

An endeavour has been made in the present study to estimate the uncertainties in strong ground-motion estimation for Delhi region. The strong ground motion (SGM) has been estimated using the logic-tree approach with equal weights chosen for the branches of the logic tree because a scientific preference has not yet been developed for the area. Coefficient of variation (COV) maps have been generated along with the mean SGM which aid in visualizing the effect of our lack of knowledge on the final results and highlight those areas where improved scientific understanding can have an impact on future hazard maps. Monte Carlo simulation has been sued to consider the effect of the variation in the seismic hazard parameters. The spectral ground generated for various return periods suggests higher values in the north-west region with a decreasing trend towards the south-east part of Delhi. The hazard gradient is highest at spectral acceleration (Sa) 0.1 s and lowest at spectral acceleration (Sa) 1.0 s for all return periods. The highest COV values (~0.60) were observed in case of PGA while lowest COV values (~0.15) were observed for spectral acceleration (Sa) 0.3 s at all return periods. One of the conspicuous observations is that the trends of COV maps have been found to be governed by the boundaries of the seismogenic sources. While COV values are governed mostly by Line Sources in smaller return and time periods, in higher return periods trend of the COV maps were found to be governed by the boundaries of the Areal Sources.

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.

Ce rapport contient le Plan de réduction du risques d’inondation de Garbey Kourou, village administratif de la commune rurale de Gothèye, région de Tillabéri, Niger. Garbey Kourou (4 600 habitants en 2012, 0,7 km2 de surface bâtie en 2019) est situé le long de la rivière Sirba, l’un des principaux affluents du moyen fleuve Niger. Le village est menacé par les inondations fluviales. Le plan est structuré selon l’ISO 31010. L’analyse intègre les connaissances locales et scientifiques. Le processus de planification est entièrement participatif. Les risque d’inondation est identifié et analysé. Les zones inondables sont identifiées en fonction de trois scénarios de probabilité d’occurrence grâce à une modélisation hydraulique 1D. Les enjeux sont identifiés après une reconnaissance systématique de terrain. Sept mesures de réduction du risque sont sélectionnées et classées par ordre de priorité. L’analyse bénéfice/coût est utilisée pour évaluer l’intérêt de traiter ou d’accepter le risque. Le dispositif de suivi-évaluation est décrit. Le plan comprend règlement des zones inondables, le zonage règlementaire, les cartes des aléas et des enjeux, ainsi que des fiches décrivant chaque action prioritaire.
------ ENGLISH. This report contains the Flood Risk Reduction Plan for Garbey Kourou, an administrative village of the rural municipality of Gothèye, Tillabéri region, Niger. Garbey Kourou (4600 inhabitants in 2012, 0.7 km2 of built up area in 2019) is located along the Sirba River, one of the main tributaries of the middle Niger River. The village is threatened by fluvial floods. The plan is structured according to the international standard ISO 31010. The analysis integrates local and scientific knowledge. The planning process is fully participatory. Flood risk is identified and analyzed. Flood-prone zones are identified according to three river flood probability of occurrence scenarios through a 1D hydraulic modeling. Floodable assets are identified through a systematic field survey. Seven risk reduction measures are selected and prioritized. Benefit/cost analysis is used to assess the convenience of treating or accepting the risk. The monitoring and evaluation system is described. The plan consists of the flood zone regulation, hazard, assets, and zoning maps, and sheets describing each priority action.

Geomophological hazard assessment is an important component of natural hazard risk assessment. This paper presents GIS-based geomorphological hazard mapping in the Red Sea area between Safaga and Quseir, Egypt. This includes the integration of published geological, geomorphological, and other data into GIS, and generation of new map products, combining governmental concerns and legal restrictions. Detailed geomorphological hazard maps for flooding zones and earth movement potential, especially along the roads and railways, have been prepared. Further the paper illustrates the application of vulnerability maps dealing with the effect of hazard on urban areas, tourist villages, industrial facilities, quarries, and road networks. These maps can help to initiate appropriate measures to mitigate the probable hazards in the area. -Susceptibility=f (hazard, hazard related factors) (1) -Possibility/Hazard=f (Susceptibility, Impact factors) (2) -Risk=f (Possibility/Hazard, Damageable objects) (3) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

Purpose -The primary aim of this research is to investigate the application of open source geographic information system software, geographical resources analysis support system (GRASS) for landslide hazard assessment. Design/methodology/approach -Five parameters affecting landslide occurrence derived from topographical, geological and land use maps of Cameron highland were used for the assessment. Findings -The results showed that about 93 percent of the study area falls under zone II that is of low hazard, with less than 7 percent on zone III with moderate hazard and only less than 1 percent falls under zone IV, which is of high hazard.

Albania is situated in the Alpine-Mediterranean seismic belt and accommodates part of the deformation due to collision of the Adriatic microplate with the Eurasian plate. Albania has repeatedly been the site of historical earthquakes with considerable losses al even from moderate size events. The fact is attributed mainly to the poor quality of the construction in rural areas. During Albania's passing from an isolated and communist dictatorship to an open and democratic society in the beginning of 90's, a boom in the construction sector commenced which made imperative a modern seismic hazard assessment. In this work an evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard in Albania is presented based on an updated seismicity catalogue. For this reason Albania has been subdivided in 8 seismogenic zones on the basis of seismotectonic criteria as well as on the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquake epicenters. The earthquake cata logue adopted contains 530 earthquakes with M ≥ 4.5 for the time period A.D.58-2000. Values of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for different probability levels of exceedance are obtained for a grid of 10 km × 10 km cells over the territory of Albania. Respective maps are also constructed.

Landslide susceptibility assessment forms the basis of any hazard mapping, which is one of the essential parts of quantitative risk mapping. For the same study area, different susceptibility maps can be achieved depending on the type of susceptibility mapping methods, mapping unit, and scale. Although there are various methods of obtaining susceptibility maps, the efficiency and performance of each method should be evaluated. In this study the effect of mapping unit and susceptibility mapping method on landslide susceptibility assessment is investigated. When analyzing the effect of susceptibility mapping method, logistic regression (LR) which is widely used in landslide susceptibility mapping and, spatial regression (SR), which have not been used for landslide susceptibility mapping, are selected. The susceptibility maps with logistic and spatial regression models are obtained using two different mapping units namely slope unit-based and grid-based mapping units. The procedure for investigation of effect of mapping unit on different susceptibility mapping methods is applied to Kumluca watershed, in Bartin Province of Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. 18 factor maps are prepared for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study region. Geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques are used to create the landslide factor maps, to obtain susceptibility maps and to compare the results. The relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve is used to compare the predictive abilities of each model and mapping unit and also the accuracy is evaluated depending on the observations made during field surveys. By analyzing the area under the ROC curve for grid-based and slope unit-based mapping units, it can be concluded that SR model provide better predictive performance (0.774 in grids and 0.898 in slope units) as compared to the LR model (0.744 in grids and 0.820 in slope units). This result is also supported by the accuracy analysis. For both mapping units, the SR model provides more accurate result (0.55 for grids and 0.57 for slope units) than the LR model (0.50 for grids and 0.48 for slopes). The main reason for this better performance is that the spatial correlations between the mapping units are incorporated into the model in SR while this fact is not considered in LR model.