Juan Guaidó

Executive Summary
The Hybrid War embodies a number of conflicts that occurred in the last two decades. The central hypothesis is that the relationship between security and technology has accelerated the transition from traditional kinds of conflict to contemporary hybrid warfare. The variables that I use as keywords throughout this (threat, media, actors, and Technology) will verify the veracity of this hypothesis.
They are:
A. the forces at work: They are the first element of distinction. It is conventional actors (states) and non-conventional actors (terrorists, secessionist forces). In Hybrid War, the conventional actors in the field only send forces with a high degree of specialisation (elite bodies created ad hoc for specific missions). This is demonstrated by the case of Unit 8200 IDF (Israeli Defense Force);
B. the means used;
C. the threat is the third variable. There is much research about Hybrid War because the forces are totally different than the traditional protagonists of the conflict. Through the example of the War on Terrorism (GWOT) is called "Network-centric warfare" because no conventional force field is a "network" (network) groups, financiers and military forces;
D. technology is the fourth variable. The data show that, together with technological progress, the war industry has caused the shift from traditional conflict to the hybrid. In particular, the focus on the war industry technology has introduced the "cyberspace" and therefore the "cyberwarfare".
you must refer to the Liberal School, whose authors have studied, since the first half of the nineties of the last century, the relationship between economic interdependence, security, and technology to place the "War Hybrid" in the discipline of International Relations.
Given the above assumptions, there are three real examples, which fall under the "hybrid" conflicts category, to analyse: the case of Stuxnet, to highlight the relationship between Hybrid War and war information (or cyber warfare), the case of Ukraine as a hybrid conflict in toto and finally the case of Venezuela as an example of the relationship between Hybrid War and Diplomacy. Taken together, the three cases want to explain the dynamics of the new conflicts that fall under the category of War Hybrid.
In conclusion, I identify two trends:
- General trend: the relationship between security and technology revealed that the conflicts will become increasingly complex and, with them, the responses of States increasingly rely on technology and the subsequent specialization of the armed forces.
- Trend about the European Union: Although the idea of a European army (and therefore of the European special forces) have not yet taken hold, the European Commission launched a minimum level of CPI (Critical Infrastructure Protection) and Resilience that Member States should respect. I consider these measures as the only advancement concerning the EU response Hybrid War.

RESUMEN:
El 23 de enero de 2019, al término de una manifestación opositora, Juan Guaidó sorprendía a Venezuela y al mundo entero (auto)proclamándose Presidente encargado de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela. Lo hizo, según sus propias palabras, amparándose en los artículos de la Constitución venezolana; artículos que permitirían, ante la ausencia de un Presidente válidamente electo, “encargar” la Presidencia de la República al presidente de la Asamblea Nacional. La decisión, más allá del debate político, generó un gran debate jurídico que precisamente se trata de analizar a través del presente trabajo. ¿Tiene Venezuela un nuevo Presidente o se trata de una burda tentativa de golpe de Estado? Esa es la principal pregunta a la que trataremos de dar respuesta.

PALABRAS CLAVE: Venezuela, Constitución, elecciones, golpe de estado, democracia.

ABSTRACT:
On January 23 2019, at the end of an opposition demonstration, Juan Guaidó surprised Venezuela and the entire world by proclaiming himself President in charge of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. In his own words, he made the decision based on the articles of the Venezuelan Constitution, articles that would allow, in the absence of a validly elected President, to "entrust" the Presidency of the Republic to the President of the National Assembly. The decision, beyond the political debate, generated a great legal debate that is analyzed through this essay. Does Venezuela have a new President or is it a gross attempt at a coup d'état? This is the main question we will try to answer.

KEY WORDS: Venezuela, Constitution, elections, coup d'état, democracy.

Internally and internationally, there has been a long and dense controversy over the real options for a definitive solution to the deep Venezuelan humanitarian crisis. Two sides, the 'pacifist' and supporter of an 'internal' solution and the 'interventionist' or external one, debate endlessly without taking into account the systematic violation of humanitarian law by the State, hunger, medical neglect and the forced exodus of large masses of the population.
As in the recent cases of Syria or Yemen, the international community shows even greater indolence. This trend towards the petrification of the 'Venezuelan case' has not changed after the appointment of an interim president by the National Assembly, the last stronghold of democratic representation, nor has it happened after the international majority support it has received.
Nevertheless, the Venezuelan constitution of 1999 imposes on the legitimate president to fully exercise as Head of State and President of the Government of his country, among other things to achieve the democratic and institutional restoration in Venezuela. With the exception of a massive desertion of military commanders and troops unrelated to State crimes attributable to the regime, it seems almost impossible for the legitimate president to fulfill such duties without agreeing on a sufficiently strong military alliance and guarantor of the required success.

Interna e internacionalmente existe desde hace rato una larga y densa polémica sobre las opciones reales que existen para la solución definitiva de la profunda crisis humanitaria venezolana. Dos bandos, el ‘pacifista’ y partidario de una solución ‘interna’ y el ‘intervencionista’ o externo debaten interminablemente sin tomar en cuenta la violación sistemática desde el Estado del derecho humanitario, el hambre, la desatención médico sanitaria y el éxodo forzado de grandes masas de la población.
Como en los casos recientes de Siria o Yemen, la comunidad internacional muestra una indolencia todavía mayor. Esta tendencia hacia la petrificación del ‘caso venezolano’ no ha cambiado tras la designación de un presidente interino por la Asamblea Nacional, último reducto de la representación democrática, como tampoco ha sucedido luego del respaldo mayoritario internacional que este ha recibido.
No obstante, la constitución venezolano del 99 impone al presidente legítimo ejercer plenamente como Jefe de Estado y Presidente del Gobierno de su país, entre otras cosas lograr la restauración democrática e institucional en Venezuela. Salvo una deserción masiva de mandos y tropas militares ajenos a los delitos de Estado imputables al régimen, parece casi imposible que el presidente legítimo pueda cumplir con tales deberes sin pactar una alianza militar suficientemente fuerte y garante del éxito requerido.

in: Consortium News
Volume 25, Number 70—-Wednesday, March 13, 2019
https://consortiumnews.com/2019/03/12/us-regime-change-blueprint-proposed-venezuelan-electricity-blackouts-as-watershed-event/

The group that trained Juan Guaidó and his allies laid out plans for galvanizing public unrest in a 2010 memo, Max Blumenthal reports for Grayzone.

Il lavoro analizzerà l'influenza dell'Unione Europea nella crisi venezuelana durante l’amministrazione di Nicolás Maduro. L’elaborato avrà come punto di partenza la crisi del sistema democratico bipartisan venezuelano e il conseguente arrivo al potere di Hugo Chávez. Verrà esaminata la politica di integrazione regionale di quest’ultimo e l’evoluzione della situazione politica con il passaggio all’amministrazione Maduro. Inoltre, si osserverà lo scacchiere geopolitico internazionale degli ultimi anni, al fine di comprendere la risposta dell'Unione europea alla suddetta crisi ​

Maduro is a very good friend with the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Maduro visited Turkey in October 2017 and Erdogan paid a return visit to Venezuela in December 2018. However, it is a well-known fact that the person lives 1 month whom Erdoğan said "mashallah". He previously visited Libya in November 2009, and then there was a mix up. Erdogan made his second visit in September 2011 after Gaddafi’s overthrow, a month later, Gaddafi was lynched. The same goes for Syria. Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad had made mutual visits. Later, however, Erdogan cooperated with the United States to overthrow Bashar al-Assad whom he said "my brother". Looking at what happened in the past, there is no choice but to call "the poor Maduro" for the future of the Venezuelan leader.

Maduro’nun ayrı bir özelliği de Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanı Tayyip Erdoğan ile olan dostluğudur. Maduro Ekim 2017’de Türkiye’yi ziyaret etmiş, Erdoğan da Aralık 2018’de Venezuela’yı ziyaret ederek karşılık vermişti. Ancak bilinen bir gerçek, Erdoğan’ın maşallah dediğinin 1 ay yaşadığıdır. Daha önce Kasım 2009’da ziyaret ettiği Libya, onun ardından karışmıştı. Erdoğan ikinci ziyaretini Kaddafi iktidardan düştükten sonra, Eylül 2011’de yapmış, bir ay sonra da Kaddafi linç edilerek öldürülmüştü. Aynı durum Suriye için de geçerli. Erdoğan ve Beşar Esad karşılıklı ziyaretler gerçekleştirmişti. Ancak daha sonra Erdoğan kardeşim dediği Beşar Esad’ın iktidardan düşmesi için ABD ile işbirliğine gitmişti. Geçmişe bakınca Venezuela liderinin geleceği için de “zavallı Maduro” demekten başka seçenek kalmıyor.

...¿es la política del Frente Nacional la solución necesaria para sustentar las negociaciones del gobierno bolivariano-chavista con la oposición social-demócrata venezolana? La propuesta del Presidente constitucional, Nicolás Maduro Moros, de un Frente de Unidad Nacional por la Paz es la respuesta obligada y necesaria en las presentes circunstancias del Covid-19. Esta política se consolida con la realidad del Gran Polo Patriótico, donde se reunen los diferentes partidos políticos de las izquierdas venezolanas...