WK 3 Answers MPH511

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1. a. ANSWER: PROBABILITY = 0.

75 at least 3 are hyperlipidemia

Why???

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION PROPORTION


n = NUMBER OF TRIALS [ 12 ] (sample size)
k = NUMBER OF SUCCESSES [ 2 ] (from 0 up to and including k NUMBER OF
SUCCESSES)
p = POPULATION PROPORTION [ 30 %]

significant digits 2

COMPUTATION OF BINOMIAL PROPORTION:


P(k => 3) = 1 - P(k ≤ 2) = 1 - n!/[k!*(n - k)!] * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
0.75 = 12!/[2!*(12 - 2)!] * 0.3^2 * (1 - 0.3)^(12 - 2)

ALTERNATIVE COMPUTATION USING EXCEL:


"Look-up" value of PROBABILITY = 0.75 = 1 - BINOMDIST ( 2 , 12 , 30/100 , TRUE )
"Using Excel function: BINOMDIST(number_s, trials, probability_s, cumulative)
Number_s is the number of successes in trials. [ 12 ]
Trials is the number of independent trials. [ 2 ]
Probability_s is the probability of success on each trial. [ 30]"

Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is
TRUE, then BINOMDIST returns the cumulative distribution function, which is the
probability that there are at most number_s successes; if FALSE, it returns the probability
mass function, which is the probability that there are number_s successes.

b. ANSWER: PROBABILITY = 0.24 exactly 3 are hyperlipidemic

Why???

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION PROPORTION


n = NUMBER OF TRIALS [ 12 ] (sample size)
k = NUMBER OF SUCCESSES [ 3 ] (Exactly 3 NUMBER OF SUCCESSES)
p = POPULATION PROPORTION [ 30 %]

significant digits 2

COMPUTATION OF BINOMIAL PROPORTION:


P(k = 3) = n!/[k!*(n - k)!] * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
0.24 = 12!/[3!*(12 - 3)!] * 0.3^3 * (1 - 0.3)^(12 - 3)

ALTERNATIVE COMPUTATION USING EXCEL:


"Look-up" value of PROBABILITY = 0.24 =BINOMDIST ( 3 , 12 , 30/100 , FALSE )
"Using Excel function: BINOMDIST(number_s, trials, probability_s, cumulative)
Number_s is the number of successes in trials. [ 12 ]
Trials is the number of independent trials. [ 3 ]
Probability_s is the probability of success on each trial. [ 30]"

Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is
TRUE, then BINOMDIST returns the cumulative distribution function, which is the
probability that there are at most number_s successes; if FALSE, it returns the probability
mass function, which is the probability that there are number_s successes.

c. ANSWER: (approx) 4 children expected to be hyperlipidemic

Why???
SAMPLE SIZE * POPULATION PROPORTION = EXPECTED [12 * 0.3 = (approx) 4]

3. Total cholesterol in children ages 10 to 15 years of age is assumed to follow a


normal distribution with a mean of 191 and a standard deviation of 22.4.
a. What proportion of children 10 to 15 have a total cholesterol between 180
and 190?
----------------
Find the z-scores:
z(180) = (180-191)/22.4 = -0.4911
z(190) = (190-191)/22.4 = -0.0446
----
The proportion between 180 and 190 = the probability
that z is between -0.4911 and -0.0446 = 17.05%
------------------------------------------------------
b. What proportion of children 10 to 15 would be classified as
hyperlipidemic(assume that hyperlipidemia is defined as a total cholesterol level
over 200?

z(200) = (200-191)/22.4 = 0.4018


Proportion over 200 = probability z is greater than 0.4018 = 34.49%
-------------------------------------------------------
c. what is the 90th percentile of total cholesterol?
Find the z-value corresponding to a left-tail of 0.90.
---
invNorm(0.90) = 1.2816
---
Use x = zs+u to find the total cholesterol.
x = 1.2816*22.4+191 = 219.71
==================================

a.
P(X < 180.0) = P((x - 191) / 22.4) < (180.0 - 191) / 22.4) = P(Z < -0.49) = 0.3117
P(X < 190.0) = P((x - 191) / 22.4) < (190.0 - 191) / 22.4) = P(Z < -0.04) = 0.4822

P(180.0 < x < 190.0) = 0.4822 - 0.3117 = 0.1705

b.
P(X < 200.0) = P((x - 191) / 22.4) < (200.0 - 191) / 22.4) = P(Z < 0.40) = 0.6561P(X > 200.0) =
1 - 0.6561 = 0.3439

c.
P(Z < 1.2816 ) = 0.9
Solving for x:
z =1.2816=(x-191)/22.4x=1.2816*22.4+191
=219.70784

6. Suppose that 40% of participants consume caffeine and smoke.


If 8 participants are evaluated, what is the probability that:
-----------------------------
Binomial Problem with n= 8 and p = 0.4
---
Exactly half of them consume caffeine and smoke?
P(x = 4) = 8C4*0.4^4*0.6^4 = binompdf(8,0,4,4) = 0.2322

More than 6 consume caffeine and smoke?


P(7 <= x <=8) = 1 - binomcdf(8,0.4,6) = 0.0085
-----------
Exactly 4 do not consume caffeine or smoke?
P(x = 4) = 8C4(0.6)^4*0.4^4 = 0.2322
==============================

10. Diastolic blood pressures are assumed to follow a normal distribution with a
mean of 85 and a standard deviation of 12
a. What proportion of people have disastolic blood pressure less than 90%
z(90) = (90-85)/12 = 0.4167
P(x < 90) = P(z < 0.4167) = 0.6616
==================
b. What proportion have diatolic blood pressure between 80 and 90% ?
80 is 5 to the left of the mean just as 90 is 5 to the right.
P(80< x < 90) = P(-0.4167 < z < 0.4167) = 0.3231

In order to use the tool, you need to have java enabled on you computer.

To answer these questions, you would use the top graph and enter a mean
of 85 and a standard deviation of 12 where indicated.

I believe your question should be worded as follows:

My answers are below each of the parts of the question.

5. Diastolic blood pressures are assumed to follow a normal distribution


with a mean of 85 and a standard deviation of 12.

a. What proportion of people have diastolic blood pressure less than 90?

The proportion of the people with diastolic blood pressure less than 90
would be .661539 or 66.13539%.

Using the tool, you would select "below" and enter a 90 in the box.

b. What proportion have diastolic blood pressure between 80 and 90?


The proportion of the people with diastolic blood pressure between 80 and
90 would be .323078 or 32.3078%

Using the tool, you would select "between" and enter 80 in the first box
and 90 in the second box.

c. If someone has a diastolic blood pressure of 100. what percentile does


that represent?

The proportion of the people with diastolic blood pressure of 100 and
above would be .105650 or 10.5650%

Using the tool, you would select "above" and enter 90 in the box.
A picture of the three graphs is shown below:

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