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    2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 09.19.12

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    kyle_r_leighton
    - The document summarizes the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from September 15-19, 2012. It included 1,772 American registered voters interviewed online. - The poll asked respondents questions about their voting intentions, opinions on a video of Mitt Romney making comments about "the 47%", and their views on various statements related to Romney's comments. - The results provide breakdowns of responses among all registered voters, likely voters, Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

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    2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 09.19.12

    Uploaded by

    kyle_r_leighton
    258 views4 pages
    - The document summarizes the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from September 15-19, 2012. It included 1,772 American registered voters interviewed online. - The poll asked respondents questions about their voting intentions, opinions on a video of Mitt Romney making comments about "the 47%", and their views on various statements related to Romney's comments. - The results provide breakdowns of responses among all registered voters, likely voters, Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

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    - The document summarizes the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from September 15-19, 2012. It included 1,772 American registered voters interviewed online. - The poll asked respondents questions about their voting intentions, opinions on a video of Mitt Romney making comments about "the 47%", and their views on various statements related to Romney's comments. - The results provide breakdowns of responses among all registered voters, likely voters, Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    258 views4 pages

    2012 Reuters Ipsos Daily Election Tracking 09.19.12

    Uploaded by

    kyle_r_leighton
    - The document summarizes the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from September 15-19, 2012. It included 1,772 American registered voters interviewed online. - The poll asked respondents questions about their voting intentions, opinions on a video of Mitt Romney making comments about "the 47%", and their views on various statements related to Romney's comments. - The results provide breakdowns of responses among all registered voters, likely voters, Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    Interview dates: Sept 15-19, 2012

    Base: 1,772 registered voters (RV)


    Base for Voting Intention: 1,197 Likely Voters (LV)
    Base for Video Questions: 869 Registered Voters
    (video data collected 3pm September 18th 10am September 19
    th
    )

    Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters
    DAILY ELECTION TRACKING 09.19.12
    These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 15-19, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,772
    American registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured
    using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all
    respondents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
    The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error
    are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited
    to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero
    but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
    Data for the video questions was collected between approximately 3pm on September 18th through 10am on September 19
    th
    .
    The video questions were asked of 869 Registered Voters who were able to view the video. The credibility interval for these
    questions is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.


    DAILY ELECTION TRACKER

    Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and
    Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans
    [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?

    All LIKELY
    Voters (LV)
    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden
    for vice president, the Democrats
    48% 49% 86% 8% 33%
    Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan
    for vice president, the Republicans
    43% 38% 8% 81% 33%
    Wouldnt vote 1% 2% 1% 2% 6%
    None / Other 3% 4% 2% 4% 10%
    Dont know / Refused 5% 8% 4% 5% 17%

    Next you will see an excerpt from a speech that Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney gave at a private fundraiser.
    Please take a minute to watch this video completely. It is important that you watch the full video in order to answer the
    remaining questions. You may need to wait a moment or two for the video to load. (INDIVIDUALS UNABLE TO WATCH THE
    VIDEO AT THIS POINT WERE SCREENED OUT)

    Q2. How, if at all, does this video affect your opinion of Mitt Romney?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Much more favorable 16% 5% 33% 5%
    Somewhat more favorable 10% 4% 19% 6%
    Makes no difference 30% 16% 39% 49%
    Somewhat less favorable 9% 9% 6% 14%
    Much less favorable 34% 65% 3% 22%
    Dont know 2% 1% 1% 4%
    More favorable 26% 9% 52% 11%
    Less favorable 43% 74% 9% 36%
    1146 19
    th
    St., NW, Suite 200
    Washington, DC 20036
    (202) 463-7300




    Q3. Which of the following statements comes closer to your personal point of view?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    In the video, Mitt Romney unfairly dismisses almost
    half of Americans as victims
    59% 91% 19% 58%
    In the video, Mitt Romney is rightly making an
    important point about the Government being too big
    41% 9% 81% 42%


    Q4. At this speech, Mitt Romney was speaking at a private home in Florida to potential campaign donors. Do you personally
    identify more with Romneys audience at this fundraiser, or with the people Romney is talking about when he says the 47%?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Romneys audience at the fundraiser 33% 14% 54% 39%
    The people Romney is talking about when
    he says the 47%
    67% 86% 46% 61%


    Q5. Mitt Romney has defended his statements in this video, pointing out that he was speaking at a private event to potential
    donors, and was sharing with them messages and campaign tactics about keeping his supporters strong and motivated. Which
    of the following statements comes closer to your personal point of view?

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    Mitt Romney is being unfairly attacked for a
    private statement to his own supporters
    27% 6% 52% 26%
    As a Presidential Candidate, all of Mitt
    Romneys comments may be subject to public
    scrutiny like this one has been
    73% 94% 48% 74%


    Q6. Do you believe that you personally fall into the 47% of Americans who do not end up owing anything in federal income
    taxes? Please note that people in this group may not pay federal income taxes, but may receive Social Security benefits, fall into
    a low-income category, or pay payroll taxes.

    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    I do not end up owing anything in federal
    income taxes (although I may receive Social
    Security benefits, fall into a low-income
    category, or pay payroll taxes)
    41% 41% 39% 35%
    I do end up owing federal income tax 59% 59% 61% 65%


    Q7. Before seeing the video, how much, if anything, have you seen or heard or read about this issue?









    All Registered
    Voters (RV)
    Democrats
    (RV)
    Republicans
    (RV)
    Independents
    (RV)
    A great deal 28% 34% 24% 23%
    Some 32% 26% 40% 34%
    A little bit 24% 23% 21% 26%
    Nothing at all 17% 16% 15% 17%
    Heard at least a little 84% 83% 85% 83%



    PARTY ID (REGISTERED VOTERS)
    Strong Democrat 19%
    Moderate Democrat 22%
    Lean Democrat 7%
    Lean Republican 8%
    Moderate Republican 16%
    Strong Republican 13%
    Independent 12%
    None of these 2%
    DK 2%



    How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

    The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter , i.e.,
    Y$Bin(n,), where n is the sie of our sample. In this seng, Y counts the number of #yes#, or #1#, observed in the sample, so
    that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood
    function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian
    1
    statistics combines both
    the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our
    opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior
    distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions
    specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

    Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief
    about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these
    intervals based on n(0). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is
    done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The
    worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and = n / . Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
    normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

    +

    V
    n

    ..

    For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for
    complex weighting
    2


    Examples of credibility intervals for different base sies are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sies (sample sies)
    below 100.


    Sample size Credibility intervals
    2,000 2.5
    1,500 2.9
    1,000 3.5
    750 4.1
    500 5.0
    350 6.0
    200 7.9
    100 11.2




    1
    Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC |
    ISBN: 158488388X | 2003

    2
    Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

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