CSCW 08 Keynote Cory Ondrejka
CSCW 08 Keynote Cory Ondrejka
CSCW 08 Keynote Cory Ondrejka
cory ondrejka
cory.ondrejka@gmail.com
topics for today
communication
innovation
collaboration
2
using sl development as a setting
3
as well as the broader context of
climate change
global recession
4
concluding with some challenges
5
or, perhaps, opportunities?
6
45 minutes, 201 slides
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45 minutes, 200 slides
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first, some questions
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how many of you...
text
tweet
instant message
update a blog or sns
play videogames
play mmos
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on the other hand
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on the other hand
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disclaimer
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not technological determinist
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not technological determinist
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not technological determinist
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so, why am i talking about this?
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distant past
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distant past
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distant past
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more recently
arcade game development
console game development
second life
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focus on linden and sl
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so, from our original list
communication
innovation
collaboration
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it all starts with communication
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by which we mean
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sharing information
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sharing experience
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at a distance
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the experience economy
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the experience economy
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and more flexible
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the history
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point-to-point sequential
pony express
telegraph
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point-to-point simultaneous
telegraph
telephone
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one-to-many
radio
television
(ie, broadcast)
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many-to-many
packet-based
the internet
the web image cc:by matt britt
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and colliding with games
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you know the history, right?
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30 second online game history
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30 second online game history
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30 second online game history
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30 second online game history
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30 second online game history
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emergence of virtual worlds
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second life
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what is second life?
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a synthetic place
create
work
play
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real-time, collaboration
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on a vast scale
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breaking the magic circle
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the magic circle?
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all about context
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all about rules
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all about rules
beating each other up OK
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all about rules
beating each other up OK
of commerce
of communication
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no magic circle in second life
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like much of the web
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innovation beyond second life
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sl and real world mix
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with more expressive user creation
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power of place
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text, sequential, monologue
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place, collaborative, dialog
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bringing us together
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‘cause when you can do anything
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we celebrate our collaboration
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even better
collaboration is a gateway drug to
technology and to participation
to entrepreneurship
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and then...
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leading to the second topic
communication
innovation
collaboration
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innovation?
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innovation?
productized knowledge
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innovation?
productized knowledge
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innovation?
productized knowledge
innovation leads to
exponential curves
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in other words, dramatic change
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that doesn’t play favorites
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that doesn’t play favorites
buggy
whip
sales
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leads to interesting times
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leads to interesting times
we predict linearly
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leads to interesting times
reality is exponential
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leads to interesting times
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consider the internet/it revolution
moore’s law
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a good thing
moore’s law
radical drop in
computing costs
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connecting us
moore’s law
radical drop in
computing costs the internet
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in unanticipated ways
moore’s law
3D
acceleration
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with far reaching results
moore’s law
3D online
online games nichification
acceleration communities
trust friends,
virtual worlds not experts
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driving the need for more innovation
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but innovation is hard
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get random walks
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with lots of false starts
start
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before we find the next big thing
eureka!
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and we see lots of false patterns
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what we know about innovation
knowledge collisions
communication
learning
participation
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knowledge collisions
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at the edges of networks
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helped by trends
decreasing
costs
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helped by trends
decreasing
costs
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learning and innovation
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maximizing participation
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long tail participation
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this isn’t just consumption
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this isn’t just consumption
total value of hits
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but also potential contributors
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but also potential contributors
traditional employees
everyone else
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examples all over
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wikipedia
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“but that’s easy”
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(who would have bet on it?)
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something harder
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“but those are open source people”
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lowered barriers are a big deal
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participation
Web Wikipedia Sims
Open Source Mainstream Media
70%
35%
0%
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participation
Web Wikipedia Sims
Open Source Mainstream Media Second Life
70%
35%
0%
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leading to the third topic
communication
innovation
collaboration
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what impedes trying?
capital
stigma
regulation
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capital
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stigma
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regulation
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so, to maximize progress
lots of communities
sharing knowledge
creating together
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bringing us back to the web
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which has some broad trends
moore’s law
3D online
online games nichification
acceleration communities
trust friends,
virtual worlds not experts
126
free-ish
computing
bandwidth
storage
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communities
connecting
learning collaborating
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enabled new models
cheap computing
+
communities
=
crowdsourcing
collaborative filtering
niche fulfillment
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this is a real power shift
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consider 935
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the gray lady 935
1851
98 pulitzers
1.5m circulation
$4b advertising
(1999)
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lots of free stuff 935
1995 1851
0 pulitzers 98 pulitzers
sf classifieds 1.5m circulation
incorporated $4b advertising
(1999) (1999)
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about as threatening as 935
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about as threatening as 935
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and if there ever was a problem
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go clubbing
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simple, right?
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except
2008
advertising down 63%
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except
2008
2008
#1 classified ad service
advertising down 63%
30 million ads/month
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except
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except
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what have we learned?
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don’t screw with baby seals
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incredibly powerful
cheap computing
+
communities
=
crowdsourcing
collaborative filtering
niche fulfillment
145
moreover
experience economy
+
crowd computing
=
new economies of scale
146
remote collaboration redefines
distance tradeoffs
local/cluster hiring
face-to-face
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driving value and participation
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nichification
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which shouldn’t surprise us
ebay
wikipedia
youtube
flickr
google
second life
etc
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and what can niches do for you?
markets
employees
partners
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consider crowd computing
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getting the right people
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doing the right work
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when you need them
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just in time employees
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consider the development of sl
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2000-2002
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2000-2002
linden street
several desks right next to each other
a&os
culture of asking questions
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2000-2002
linden street
several desks right next to each other
a&os
culture of asking questions
face-to-face interactions
ad hoc meetings
whiteboards
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2002-2004
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2002-2004
2nd street
one large room
beta and release
remote employees
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2002-2004
2nd street
one large room
beta and release
remote employees
entangled seating
local face-to-face
social signals
email, wikis
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2004-
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2004-
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2004-
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2004-
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2004-
sansome and davis
and mountain view, battery
seattle, boston, brighton
and singapore
rapid scaling
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2004-
sansome and davis
and mountain view, battery
seattle, boston, brighton
and singapore
rapid scaling
multiple offices
irc
voice
second life
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reducing non-local penalties
mixed-reality meetings
pure virtual meetings
virtual rooms
live channels
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more complications awaited
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residents
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plus metaverse entrepreneurs
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and the fortune 500
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all collaborating remotely
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brings challenges for the future
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user experience
ease of use
accessibility
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search
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making the lessons real
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how can remote collaboration help?
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relating this to the headlines
unemployment
financial crisis
climate change
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but that’s just the start
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we’re smarter together
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bridges two key challenges
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economics and education
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because as we worry about
stimulating entrepreneurship
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with accelerating complexity
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we need new options
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for entrepreneurs and education
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and
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or situated learning
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or performance before competence
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we’re smarter together
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and it’s easier to do online
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critical for innovation
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innovation is exponential
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innovation is exponential
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innovation is exponential
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which curve do we need to be on?
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and this is just the beginning
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because remote collaboration today
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is the web a decade ago
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we’re just getting started
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stop talking now
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cory.ondrejka@emimusic.com
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