‘Human Factors’ in Tech Diving

The role of non-technical skills in

managing ‘risk’ in diving

The Divers’ Dilemm

Managing the balance between risk, reward
Gareth Lock
and the external pressures divers face
counter-errorism in diving
www.thehumandiver.com
Gareth Lock
gareth@thehumandiver.com
Mob: +44 7966 483832

Safety is your perception…

Risk, Uncertainty and Dilemmas
“…To try is to risk failure.
But risks must be taken because the greatest
hazard in life is to risk nothing.
The person who risks nothing, does nothing,
has nothing, is nothing.
He may avoid suffering and sorrow,
But he cannot learn, feel, change, grow or live.
Chained by his servitude he is a slave who has
forfeited all freedom.
Only a person who risks is free.
The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
And the realist adjusts the sails.”

- To Risk. William Arthur Ward

Risk
“…the probability that a
particular adverse event occurs
during a stated period of time, or
results from a particular
challenge. As a probability in the
sense of statistical theory, risk
obeys all the formal laws of
combining probabilities.”

1983 -Royal Society

Risk - Multiple Meanings

• Risk as a hazard
• Risk as probability
• Risk as consequence
• Risk as potential adversity or threat
• Context Specific
 Safety - Opposite to Risk?
“Safety is not the absence of accidents or incidents, but
rather the presence of barriers and defences and the
capacity of the system to fail safely.”
Todd Conklin, Los Alamos

Barriers/Defences Failing Safely

System Design Non-Technical Skills/Human
Factors
Technical Skills
Bailout/Contingencies
Non-Technical Skills/Human
Factors Medical Kit
Attitude Emergency Drills/Training
Knowledge/Experience Insurance/Life Assurance
Perceived Risks

Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of risk posed by extreme events. Science, 236(4799), 280–285.
 Incompetent and Unaware

Grammar

Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing

one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
Dunning, Kruger. 1999 Logical Reasoning
Uncertainty: Self and the Situation

Cook, R, & Rasmussen, J. (2005).

“Going solid”: a model of system dynamics and consequences for patient safety.
Uncertainty
•Zero Risk Illusion
- Large numbers create illusion of
certainty
•The ‘Turkey Illusion’
- The longer something happens, the
more certain we become that it is certain
Certainty Risk Uncertainty

Dice Stocks
Gambling Business
Casino Health

Zero Risk Turkey Illusion

Situational Awareness
The ability to FOCUS on what is
important and / or relevant…
…whilst being conscious of, and
taking into account, the limitations
of focussed attention
Situational Awareness
The ability to FOCUS on what is
important and / or relevant…
…whilst being conscious of, and
taking into account, the limitations
of focussed attention

We only see those

things which we are
expecting to see…

“The invisible gorilla strikes again: Sustained inattentional blindness in expert observers”
Decision Making
• System 1 / System 2
• Naturalistic Decision Making
• Mental Models/Heuristics
 Biases
Recency Bias
Default effect
Ambiguity effect

Dunning–Kruger effect
Availability heuristic
Framing effect
Belief bias
Gambler's fallacy
Conjunction fallacy

Blog article: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/17-cognitive-biases

Intuition can be correct but only if…

• There is regularity in the world…

• You undertake lots of practice…
• You get immediate feedback…

“Intuition is thinking that you know without knowing why you d

In general, confidence is a very poor cue to accuracy.
Because intuitions come to your mind with considerable
confidence and there is no guarantee they’re right.”

Thinking. Fast and Slow. Kahneman.

Intuition can be correct but only if…

• There is regularity in the world…

• You undertake lots of practice…
• You get immediate feedback…

“Intuition is thinking that you know without knowing why you d

In general, confidence is a very poor cue to accuracy.
Because intuitions come to your mind with considerable
confidence and there is no guarantee they’re right.”
Otherwise we fill the gaps with
Thinking. Fast and Slow. Kahneman.
made-up stuff!
Diving risks don’t exist in isolation

Cook, R, & Rasmussen, J. (2005).

Risk Management - Logical Approach

Where do you get the

likelihood information from?

How many ‘Greens’ make a ‘Red’?

”The job of any human is to be able
to predict with 100% accuracy what
is going to happen next. Sadly
though, this is an utterly impossible
task so instead the human has to
make a probability/possibility
trade-off where they gamble on the
million and one things that can
possibly happen next against the
one or two things that will probably
happen next.”

Duncan MacKillop
Gambling…
Gambling with two dice

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gambling with two dice
1:36

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gambling with two dice
6:36
or
1:6

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Large Numbers
1 person, 2 dice
1 person, 2 dice
3 people, 3 experiences
100 rolls…
100 rolls…
3 people, 3 closer experiences
10 000 rolls…
10 000 rolls…
How many variables (dice) in diving?

http://www.alertdiver.com/Factors-in-decompression-stress
How we Communicate Risk is Important

http://www.probabilitysurvey.com/
Possibility?
DCS
Fatality
Totally running out of gas
Total electronics failure
Partial electronics failure
Bailing out and ascending
to surface
Hyperoxia
Hypoxia
Hypercapnia
Possibility? Probability?
DCS DCS
Fatality Fatality
Totally running out of gas Totally running out of gas
Total electronics failure Total electronics failure
Partial electronics failure Partial electronics failure
Bailing out and ascending Bailing out and ascending
to surface to surface
Hyperoxia Hyperoxia
Hypoxia Hypoxia
Hypercapnia Hypercapnia
Possibility? Probability? Acceptable?
DCS DCS DCS
Fatality Fatality Fatality
Totally running out of gas Totally running out of gas Totally running out of gas
Total electronics failure Total electronics failure Total electronics failure
Partial electronics failure Partial electronics failure Partial electronics failure
Bailing out and ascending Bailing out and ascending Bailing out and ascending
to surface to surface to surface
Hyperoxia Hyperoxia Hyperoxia
Hypoxia Hypoxia Hypoxia
Hypercapnia Hypercapnia Hypercapnia
Feedback reinforces behaviour
Human Behaviour Probability of No Accident
(Function of System) Adverse Event

CONSEQUENCE
Normalisation of Deviance/Risk Homeostasis

Cook and Rasmussen, 2005

Normalisation of Deviance/Risk Homeostasis

Cook and Rasmussen, 2005

Normalisation of Deviance/Risk Homeostasis

Cook and Rasmussen, 2005

Normalisation of Deviance/Risk Homeostasis

Cook and Rasmussen, 2005

Normalisation of Deviance/Risk Homeostasis

Cook and Rasmussen, 2005

Normalisation of Deviance/Risk Homeostasis

Cook and Rasmussen, 2005

Many years without failure…
Feedback reinforces behaviour
Human Behaviour Probability of No Accident
(Function of System) Adverse Event

Adverse Event

Severity
Probability

CONSEQUENCE
Feedback reinforces behaviour
Human Behaviour Probability of No Accident
(Function of System) Adverse Event

Adverse Event

Severity
Probability

CONSEQUENCE
Feedback can change behaviour
Hindsight Bias Doesn’t Help Learning

This is not hindsight bias!!

“There is almost no human action or decision that cannot be made to look flawed and less sensible i
misleading light of hindsight. It is essential that the critic should keep himself constantly aware of th
Hidden QC. Clapham Junction enquiry
Outcomes are a fx(…)

Technical Skills
x
CONTEXT (Environment, Task, Equipment Design)

x
RANDOMNESS (c.f. Luck)
x

Casali, Lock & Cullen. 2019

Minimising Uncertainty and its Effects
•Standards, Protocols and
Processes

Cook, R, & Rasmussen, J. (2005).

“Going solid”: a model of system dynamics and consequences for patient safety.
Minimising Uncertainty and its Effects
•Standards, Protocols and Processes
•Debriefs
•Checklistsreduce
( )
System 1 errors
Minimising Uncertainty and its Effects
•Standards, Protocols and Processes
•Debriefs
•Checklistsreduce
( )
System 1 errors

•Telling ‘stories’
Minimising Uncertainty and its Effects
•Standards, Protocols and Processes
•Debriefs
•Checklistsreduce
( )
System 1 errors

•Telling ‘stories’
•Medical InsuranceTeleports
( don’t exist!)
Minimising Uncertainty and its Effects
•Standards, Protocols and Processes
•Debriefs
•Checklistsreduce
( )
System 1 errors

•Telling ‘stories’
•Medical InsuranceTeleports
( don’t exist!)

•Life Assurance/Income Protection

••Diving
••‘Normal life’
 Safety - Opposite to Risk?
“Safety is not the absence of accidents or incidents, but
rather the presence of barriers and defences and the
ability of the system to fail safely.”
Todd Conklin, Los Alamos

Barriers/Defences Failing Safely

System Design Non-Technical Skills/Human
Factors
Technical Skills
Bailout/Contingencies
Non-Technical Skills/Human
Factors Medical Kit
Attitude Emergency Drills/Training
Knowledge/Experience Insurance/Life Assurance
What I do to help you as divers

Online Training
https://www.thehumandiver.com
“Honestly, the material is fantastic and the production
quality is stellar. I have never seen such a
well-presented programme.” Jill Heinerth

Face-to-face Training
www.thehumandiver.com, Amazon
Or €30 here
 www.thehumandiver.com

Gareth Lock
Questions? gareth@humaninthesystem.co.u
Mob: +44 7966 483832