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    تقرير اياتا

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    Mohamed Mabrouk
    The document discusses the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global air transport industry. It notes that worldwide flights in Q2 2020 were 70% lower than the start of the year. The International Air Transport Association forecasts over a 70% year-over-year decline in revenue passenger kilometers in Q2 2020. Cash burn across airlines in Q2 may exceed $60 billion as revenues decline sharply while many costs cannot be avoided. With median airlines only having two months of cash reserves at the start of 2020, many are at risk of running out of funds. The collapse of air transport will also have significant negative impacts on broader economies through effects on international trade, supply chains, tourism industries, and jobs.

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    تقرير اياتا

    Uploaded by

    Mohamed Mabrouk
    41 views11 pages
    The document discusses the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global air transport industry. It notes that worldwide flights in Q2 2020 were 70% lower than the start of the year. The International Air Transport Association forecasts over a 70% year-over-year decline in revenue passenger kilometers in Q2 2020. Cash burn across airlines in Q2 may exceed $60 billion as revenues decline sharply while many costs cannot be avoided. With median airlines only having two months of cash reserves at the start of 2020, many are at risk of running out of funds. The collapse of air transport will also have significant negative impacts on broader economies through effects on international trade, supply chains, tourism industries, and jobs.

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    The document discusses the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global air transport industry. It notes that worldwide flights in Q2 2020 were 70% lower than the start of the year. The International Air Transport Association forecasts over a 70% year-over-year decline in revenue passenger kilometers in Q2 2020. Cash burn across airlines in Q2 may exceed $60 billion as revenues decline sharply while many costs cannot be avoided. With median airlines only having two months of cash reserves at the start of 2020, many are at risk of running out of funds. The collapse of air transport will also have significant negative impacts on broader economies through effects on international trade, supply chains, tourism industries, and jobs.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    41 views11 pages

    تقرير اياتا

    Uploaded by

    Mohamed Mabrouk
    The document discusses the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global air transport industry. It notes that worldwide flights in Q2 2020 were 70% lower than the start of the year. The International Air Transport Association forecasts over a 70% year-over-year decline in revenue passenger kilometers in Q2 2020. Cash burn across airlines in Q2 may exceed $60 billion as revenues decline sharply while many costs cannot be avoided. With median airlines only having two months of cash reserves at the start of 2020, many are at risk of running out of funds. The collapse of air transport will also have significant negative impacts on broader economies through effects on international trade, supply chains, tourism industries, and jobs.

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    COVID-19

    Wider economic impact


    from air transport collapse

    Brian Pearce
    Chief Economist
    7th April 2020

    1
    Worldwide flights were 70% lower at the start of Q2
    Further decline possible as restrictions rise in a number of regions
    Daily flights, indexed 1st January = 100
    160
    Number of flights, index to equal 100 1st Jan

    140

    120

    100

    80

    60 N America

    40
    Global
    20 Asia Pacific
    Europe
    0

    Source: IATA Economics using data from FlightRadar24


    We are forecasting a 70%+ y-o-y fall in RPKs in Q2
    Revenue shock similar as lower passenger yields offset by cargo
    Worldwide RPKs, % change year-on-year
    20%

    10%

    0%
    % change year-on-year

    -10%

    -20%

    -30%

    -40%

    -50%

    -60%

    -70%
    2020 Q2
    -80%
    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    Source: IATA Economics https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/covid-19-cash-burn-analysis/


    Cash burn may be over $60 billion in Q2
    Some costs cannot be avoided and ticket refunds also burning cash

    Cash burn of
    $61bn in Q2

    Source: IATA Economics https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/covid-19-cash-burn-analysis/


    Many airlines running out of cash
    Situation at start of this year - median airline only 2 months cash
    Balance Sheet Liquidity
    (Cash and Equivalents Coverage of Revenues*)
    Months Min Max Median
    10
    9
    8
    7
    6
    5
    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America

    *Latest available 12 months cumulative revenues Africa, Latin America and the Middle East might not be representative due to small sample size.

    Source: IATA Economics using the Airline Analyst https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/covid-19-airlines-liquidity-crisis/


    Connecting cities by air will be critical for the recovery
    35% of international trade, supply chains, investment, tourism
    End-March 2019

    Source: IATA Economics using data from FlightRadar24, w/c March 25, 2019
    Connecting cities by air will be critical for the recovery
    35% of international trade, supply chains, investment, tourism
    End-March 2020

    Source: IATA Economics using data from FlightRadar24, w/c March 30, 2020
    Advanced economies depend on supply chains
    Rapid air transport links critical for functioning of modern businesses

    Source: IATA Economics using an image from wearemoblans.com


    Emerging economies often depend on inbound tourism
    The spending and investment driven by tourism industry can be critical

    22% Thailand 11% China 9% South Africa

    Mexico India 8% Brazil


    17% 9%

    12% Turkey Vietnam 6% Indonesia


    9%

    Source: IATA Economics using data from World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019
    The consequences are severe for the wider economy
    Not just airlines, also 25 million jobs at risk throughout economies
    Jobs supported by air transport at risk due to COVID-19

    Asia-Pacific 11.2 m

    Europe 5.6 m

    Latin America 2.9 m

    North America 2.0 m

    Africa 2.0 m

    Middle East 0.9 m Note: these estimate are based on the full year 2020
    impact assessment of a 38% decline in RPKs

    Source: IATA Economics


    Contacts
    economics@iata.org
    www.iata.org/economics

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