ICAO Coronavirus Econ Impact PDF

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 110

Effects of Novel Coronavirus

(COVID-19) on Civil Aviation:


Economic Impact Analysis
Montréal, Canada
27 January 2023
Economic Development – Air Transport Bureau
Contents

• Executive Summary: • 2020/2021 Results and 2022


Economic Impact in Brief Estimates: Global
• 2020/2021 Results and 2022
• Scenario Building
Estimates: Regional
– Analytical consideration Breakdown
– Shapes of Economic
– Africa
Recession and Recovery
– Asia/Pacific
– Indicative Scenarios and
– Europe
Paths Forward
– Latin America/Caribbean
– Middle East
– North America

2
Executive Summary: Economic Impact in Brief

2022 figures and estimates herein are subject to changes, and will be updated
with the situation evolving and more information available.

3
World passenger traffic collapses with
unprecedented decline in history

World passenger traffic evolution


1945 – 2022

Decline in world total passengers


2022 vs. 2019 -28% to -29%
2021 vs. 2019 -49%
2020 vs. 2019 -60%

Source: ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form A and A-S plus ICAO estimates. 4
Year 2020/2021 results:
World total passenger traffic

The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2020 (actual results),
compared to 2019 levels:

– Overall reduction of 50% of seats offered by airlines


– Overall reduction of 2,703 million passengers (-60%)
– Approx. USD 372 billion loss of gross passenger operating revenues of airlines

The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2021 (preliminary
estimates), compared to 2019 levels:

– Overall reduction of 40% of seats offered by airlines


– Overall reduction of 2,201 million passengers (-49%)
– Approx. USD 324 billion loss of gross passenger operating revenues of airlines

5
Moderate recovery in domestic travel
while international travel remained stagnant

Monthly passenger numbers in 2020-21-22 vs. 2019


450

400
Passenger Numbers (million)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

International Domestic 2019 total

Source: ICAO estimates 6


Source: ICAO ADS-B
-100%
0%

-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
20%
40%
01/01/20
01/02/20
01/03/20
01/04/20
01/05/20
01/06/20
01/07/20
01/08/20
01/09/20
01/10/20
01/11/20
01/12/20
Africa

01/01/21
Europe

01/02/21
Asia/Pacific

Middle East

01/03/21
North America

01/04/21
01/05/21
01/06/21
Latin America/Caribbean

01/07/21
01/08/21
01/09/21
01/10/21
01/11/21
01/12/21
01/01/22
01/02/22
01/03/22
(7-day average, compared to 2019)

01/04/22
01/05/22
Comparison of total seat capacity by region

01/06/22
01/07/22
01/08/22
01/09/22
01/10/22
01/11/22
7
speed of recovery
Regional difference in resilience and
Year 2022 outlook:
Due to uncertainty, consider 4 different paths
Scenarios for passenger seat capacity
0%
Outlook 2022 (compared to 2019 levels)
0%
-20%

-10%
-40%
-20%
-60% Actual
Scenario 1 -30%
Scenario 1a
-80% Scenario 2 -40%
Scenario 2a
Reference
-100% -50%
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
-60%

Scenarios for passenger number -70%


0%
Actual -80%

Jun 21

Jun 22
Aug 21

Aug 22
May 22
Apr 21
May 21

Apr 22
Jan 21

Jan 22

Dec 22
Dec 21
Sep 21

Feb 22

Jul 22
Feb 21

Jul 21

Sep 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Oct 21
Nov 21

Oct 22
Nov 22
Scenario 1
-20%
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
-40% Seat capacity (Low) Seat capacity (High)
Reference
Passenger number (Low) Passenger number (High)
-60%

-80%
The actual impacts will depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak
-100% and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel,
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 22
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22

and economic conditions, etc.

8
Year 2022 outlook:
International and domestic passenger traffic

The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2022 (estimated results),
compared to 2019 levels:

– Overall reduction of 25% to 26% of seats offered by airlines


– Overall reduction of 1,278 to 1,281 million passengers (-28% to -29%)
– Approx. USD 174 to 175 billion loss of gross passenger operating revenues of airlines

International passenger traffic (2022, vs. 2019) Domestic passenger traffic (2022, vs. 2019)
– Overall reduction of 33% to 34% of seats – Overall reduction of 19% to 20% of seats
offered by airlines offered by airlines
– Overall reduction of 658 to 660 million – Overall reduction of 620 to 621 million
passengers (-35% to -36%) passengers (-23% to -24%)
– Approx. USD 123 to 124 billion loss of – Approx. USD 51 to 51 billion loss of gross
gross operating revenues of airlines operating revenues of airlines

9
Scenario Building

10
Scope of analysis

• Analysis focuses on simultaneous supply shock and drop in demand


– in a near-term, i.e. monthly profile from January 2020 to December 2022
– in terms of scheduled passenger traffic globally

• Taking into account the heterogeneity, distinction is made:


– between international and domestic
– by month (seasonality)
– by six (6) geographical region and/or 50 route groups used in ICAO’s long-term
traffic forecasts (LTF)

• Analysis is based on forward-looking scenarios, which will be continuously


adjusted and updated
11
Analytical Consideration

• Geographical disparity of international-domestic passenger traffic mix


• Difference in market size among regions
• Potential difference in resilience and speed of recovery
• Outbreak timing that impacts when traffic would bottom out
• Gap between what is scheduled and actual operations

12
International share of passenger traffic
decreased in all regions in 2019-2020-2021

Share of international-domestic passenger traffic by region


(2019-2020-2021, based on from/to State)

Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates 13


Europe accounted for over half of the world
international traffic in 2021
Number of international passengers by region
(2019-2020-2021, based on from/to State)

Share
2021 vs. 2019

Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates 14


North America overtook China with over 30%
share of world domestic passengers in 2021

Number of domestic passengers by Route Group


(2019-2020-2021)

Share
2021 vs. 2019

Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates 15


Domestic passenger traffic often exhibits more
resilience than international

Asia/Pacific and North America have experienced 20% to 25% less decline in
domestic passenger traffic than international in 2020

International seat capacity reduction Domestic seat capacity reduction


(7-day average, compared to 2019) (7-day average, compared to 2019)
20% 60%
Africa
Africa
40% Asia/Pacific
0% Asia/Pacific
Europe
Europe
20% Latin America/Caribbean
Latin America/Caribbean
-20% Middle East
Middle East 0%
North America
North America
-40% -20%

-40%
-60%
-60%
-80%
-80%

-100% -100%

01/01/20
01/02/20
01/03/20
01/04/20
01/05/20
01/06/20
01/07/20
01/08/20
01/09/20
01/10/20
01/11/20
01/12/20
01/01/21
01/02/21
01/03/21
01/04/21
01/05/21
01/06/21
01/07/21
01/08/21
01/09/21
01/10/21
01/11/21
01/12/21
01/01/22
01/02/22
01/03/22
01/04/22
01/05/22
01/06/22
01/07/22
01/08/22
01/09/22
01/10/22
01/11/22
01/01/20
01/02/20
01/03/20
01/04/20
01/05/20
01/06/20
01/07/20
01/08/20
01/09/20
01/10/20
01/11/20
01/12/20
01/01/21
01/02/21
01/03/21
01/04/21
01/05/21
01/06/21
01/07/21
01/08/21
01/09/21
01/10/21
01/11/21
01/12/21
01/01/22
01/02/22
01/03/22
01/04/22
01/05/22
01/06/22
01/07/22
01/08/22
01/09/22
01/10/22
01/11/22

Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data 16


Domestic passenger traffic has been recovering
ahead of international

China domestic passenger traffic experienced significant volatility


during the recovery course due to the renewed outbreaks

Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data 17


The outbreak timing impacts when domestic
traffic bottoms out in each region

Capacity evolution of two largest domestic markets


China and United States since January 2020

Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data 18


For international passenger traffic, share of
Intra-Region traffic further decreased in 2021
Share of Intra-Region and Inter-Region passenger traffic by region
(2019-2020-2021, based on from/to State, share of international traffic)

Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates 19


A large gap exists between scheduled
and actual operations
Substantial variations between airlines’ announced capacity and
actual capacity

International schedules Domestic schedules

Source: OAG 20
Shapes of Economic Recession and Recovery

Informal classification to describe different types of recessions:


• V-shaped: normal shape for recession, a brief period of sharp economic decline
followed by quick/smooth recovery
• U-shaped: prolonged contraction and muted recovery to trend line growth
• L-shaped (depression): long-term downturn in economic activity, steep drop
followed by a flat line with possibility of not returning to trend line growth
• W-shaped: a double-dip recession, “down up down up” pattern before full recovery
• “Nike swoosh”-shaped*: bounce back sharply but blunt quickly (* Brookings Institution/WEF)
21
What “recession shape” can be assumed
given uncertainties surrounding the outlook?

World’s GDP Projections (by IMF)


• How long will the impact of the pandemic
on air travel last and what will be the
severity levels?
• How long will the global recession be?
• To what extent will the global economic
situation impact the global air travel?
• How fast will the demand for air travel
return?
• Will there be a structural shift in industry
and consumers’ behaviors?

Source: IMF Word Economic Outlook (January2021) 22


Previous outbreaks/pandemics had a V-shaped
impact on air transport in Asia/Pacific

The impact of
COVID-19 has
already surpassed
the 2003 SARS
outbreak which had
resulted in reduction
of annual RPKs by
8% and USD 6
billion revenues for
Asia/Pacific airlines.
The 6-month
recovery path of
SARS might not
apply to today’s
situation.
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/third-impact-assessment/

Source: IATA COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment (dated 24 March 2020) 23


9/11 and global financial crisis had a U/L-shaped
impact on air transport in United States

https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact-of-covid19-data-updates/

Source: A4A Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19 (updated on 7 December 2021) 24


Indicative Scenarios and Paths Forward

As overall severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic are still uncertain, four (4)
different recovery paths under two (2) indicative scenarios are developed:

• Baseline: counterfactual scenario, in which the COVID-19 pandemic does not


occur, that is, originally-planned or business as usual
• Scenario 1: two (2) different paths (similar to Nike swoosh- and W-shaped)
• Scenario 2: two (2) different paths (similar to U- and L-shaped)
• Reference: information only, based on latest airline schedules (similar to V-shaped)

25
What does Scenario mean?

• Notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding the outlook, a scenario analysis


could help gauge potential economic implications of the pandemic
• Scenarios are not forecasts of what is most likely to happen. Given rapidly
changing circumstances, they are merely indicative of possible paths or
consequential outcomes out of many
• The exact path (depth, length and shape) will depend upon various factors,
inter alia, duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures,
availability of government assistance, consumer confidence, and economic
conditions
• With the situation evolving and more information available, scenarios will be
adjusted as necessary

26
Key assumptions

• International and domestic passenger traffic has separate scenarios/paths

• Scenarios/paths are differentiated in terms of supply and demand, i.e.


– Scale of output or seat capacity change
– Degree of consumer confidence that can be translated into demand or load factor as a proxy

• Supply and demand are influenced by:


– Different timing and speed of recovery by region, international/domestic, and intra-/inter-region
– Global economic contraction

• No consideration is made to social distancing requirements on aircraft, etc.

27
Baseline & Reference

• Baseline: originally-planned or business as usual


– Counterfactual hypothesis that are expected to occur in the absence of COVID-19 pandemic
– Supply: airlines’ originally-planned schedules supplemented by trend line growth
– Demand: trend line growth of demand from 2019 (pre-COVID-19) level

• Reference: V-shaped
– Information-only scenario that reflects airlines’ most recent expectation or a “signal” of airlines’
plan to the market (not necessarily realistic)
– Supply: based on latest update of airline schedules filed, which are adjusted weekly by airlines
according to the expectation of the evolving situation (quite often managing capacity for a short
period due to the uncertainties)
– Demand: quickly returning to Baseline level

28
Scenarios 1 & 2

Scenario 1: Nike swoosh- and W-shaped Scenario 2: U- and L-shaped


• International • International
– Path 1: Smooth capacity recovery by picking up pent-up – Path 2: Accelerating the return to trend growth after
demand but at a diminishing rate of growth slow progression of capacity recovery
– Path 1a: Capacity to start with smooth recovery but – Path 2a: Capacity recovery at diminishing speed due
then turn back down due to over-capacity to respite and continuous demand slump
• Domestic • Domestic
– Path 1: Swift capacity rebound pushed by pent-up – Path 2: Gradual capacity recovery, followed by the
demand but at a diminishing rate of growth acceleration of growth
– Path 1a: Capacity to start with smooth recovery but – Path 2a: Capacity recovery at diminishing speed due
then turn back down due to over-capacity to sluggish demand growth

In the following analysis, international and domestic scenarios having the same path number are linked with
each other, although different combination of scenarios/paths would be possible

29
Assumptions underlying Scenarios

(International and Baseline (Originally-planned, business as usual)


domestic) Seat capacity Passenger load factor
January to March 2020 Airlines' winter schedules filed with OAG as of 6 January 2020

Maximum number of seats taken from airlines' summer schedules filed with Forecasted 2020 load factor by region/route group, based on ICAO long-term
April to September 2020
OAG during the period from 6 January 2020 to 20 April 2020 traffic forecasts (LTF), which was adjusted monthly by difference between
2019 actual monthly results (ICAO, IATA) and 2019 LTF forecasted load factor
Using 2019 winter schedule as the base, and applying the pre-COVID-19 trend
October to December 2020
line growth, i.e. growth rate of 2019/2018 as proxy

Forecasted 2021 load factor by region/route group, based on ICAO long-term


Using "2020 Baseline" as the base, and applying the baseline growth of
January to December 2021 traffic forecasts (LTF), which was adjusted monthly by difference between
2020/2019, or growth rate of 2019/2018, whichever is smaller
2019 actual monthly results (ICAO, IATA) and 2019 LTF forecasted load factor
Forecasted 2022 load factor by region/route group, based on ICAO long-term
The baseline growth of 2021/2020 * 0.8 + the baseline growth of 2020/2019
January to December 2022 traffic forecasts (LTF), which was adjusted monthly by difference between
baseline * 0.2
2019 actual monthly results (ICAO, IATA) and 2019 LTF forecasted load factor

(International and Scenarios 1/1a, 2/2a and Reference


domestic) Seat capacity Passenger load factor
January 2020 to November
Actual capacity based on ICAO ADS-B data Actual estimated results by region/route group
2022
Scenarios 1/1a & 2/2a: Application of monthly "base percentage" which
Application of "base percentage" incorporating GDP impact by region/route
December 2022 incorporates impacts of intra-/inter-regional share difference (2019)
group
Reference: Most recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG

30
“Base percentages” used for scenarios

International (world average) Domestic (world average)

Seat capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Seat capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Reference -51% -53% -45% -41% -38% -39% -36% -37% -37% -34% -35% -40% Reference -27% -28% -29% -31% -27% -22% -21% -21% -27% -28% -29% -31%
Scenario 1 -51% -53% -45% -41% -38% -39% -36% -37% -37% -34% -35% -36% Scenario 1 -27% -28% -29% -31% -27% -22% -21% -21% -27% -28% -29% -27%
Scenario 1a -51% -53% -45% -41% -38% -39% -36% -37% -37% -34% -35% -36% Scenario 1a -27% -28% -29% -31% -27% -22% -21% -21% -27% -28% -29% -28%
Scenario 2 -51% -53% -45% -41% -38% -39% -36% -37% -37% -34% -35% -36% Scenario 2 -27% -28% -29% -31% -27% -22% -21% -21% -27% -28% -29% -28%
Scenario 2a -51% -53% -45% -41% -38% -39% -36% -37% -37% -34% -35% -36% Scenario 2a -27% -28% -29% -31% -27% -22% -21% -21% -27% -28% -29% -28%

Load factor Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Load factor Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Reference -19% -14% -11% -7% -2% -1% -1% -3% 0% 1% 0% 2% Reference -14% -11% -7% -6% -6% -6% -6% -7% -3% -2% -2% -2%
Scenario 1 -19% -14% -11% -7% -2% -1% -1% -3% 0% 1% 0% 0% Scenario 1 -13% -11% -7% -6% -6% -6% -6% -7% -3% -2% -2% -2%
Scenario 1a -19% -14% -11% -7% -2% -1% -1% -3% 0% 1% 0% 0% Scenario 1a -14% -11% -7% -6% -6% -6% -6% -7% -3% -2% -2% -2%
Scenario 2 -19% -14% -11% -7% -2% -1% -1% -3% 0% 1% 0% 0% Scenario 2 -14% -11% -7% -6% -6% -6% -6% -7% -3% -2% -2% -2%
Scenario 2a -19% -14% -11% -7% -2% -1% -1% -3% 0% 1% 0% 0% Scenario 2a -14% -11% -7% -6% -6% -6% -6% -7% -3% -2% -2% -2%

• Base percentages of seat capacity already take into consideration short-/long-haul (intra-/inter-region) impacts and will be
applied to Baseline level of seat capacity
• Base percentages of load factor already take into consideration economic (GDP) factors and will be added to Bassline level of
load factor %

31
Data used for scenario analysis

• Seat capacity (seats available for sale): OAG airlines schedule data; Route Online; airline
websites and ICAO ADS-B operational data

• Load factor (RPKs/ASKs): ICAO long-term traffic forecasts (LTF); ICAO statistical reporting
forms; IATA economics data; and airline news release

• Historical passenger traffic (including ASKs, RPKs, passenger numbers and operating
revenues): ICO Annual Report of the Council; and ICAO statistical reporting forms

• Yield (passenger revenues/RPK): ICAO revenue-cost analysis of airlines (RCA); and ICAO-ICM
Marketing Information Data Transfer (MIDT passenger origin-destination)

• Macroeconomic factors (GDP impact): Income elasticity of demand estimated for ICAO LTF;
and IMF and World Bank economic outlook data

Note: Average air fares (i.e. passenger yield multiplied by average trip distance) for each region/route group are used to
estimate gross passenger operating revenues.

32
2020/2021 Results and 2022 Estimates:
Global

2022 figures and estimates herein reflect the latest operational data and schedules filed by airlines
but are subject to changes, and will be updated with the situation evolving
and more information available.

33
Three (3) key impact indictors

• Three (3) key impact indicators under four (4) paths of two (2) scenarios:
– Change of passenger seat capacity (supply, %)
– Change of passenger numbers (demand)
– Change of gross passenger operating revenues of airlines

• Comparison to:
– Baseline scenario
– 2019 level
– 2020/2021 levels Estimation based on actual
results of January 2020 to
• Break-down by: November 2022 are used for
– International and domestic the key impact indicators.

– Month, quarter and year


34
Estimated impacts compared to 2019 & Baseline
Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -16.4% -21.5% -12.9% -240,026 -23.3% -100,825 -24.6% -139,201 -22.4% -30,993 -18,575 -12,418
2Q 2020 -78.2% -92.6% -67.6% -984,642 -86.3% -461,109 -96.7% -523,533 -78.8% -129,835 -82,146 -47,689
3Q 2020 -55.3% -75.3% -39.9% -820,791 -67.0% -451,781 -85.5% -369,010 -53.0% -115,933 -82,356 -33,576
4Q 2020 -48.0% -75.7% -29.0% -657,149 -59.9% -377,836 -86.2% -279,313 -42.4% -95,624 -69,914 -25,710
Total 2020 -50.1% -67.7% -37.6% -2,702,608 -60.1% -1,391,550 -75.1% -1,311,058 -49.6% -372,385 -252,991 -119,395
1Q 2021 -49.7% -75.6% -32.2% -638,105 -61.9% -355,015 -86.8% -283,090 -45.5% -91,685 -65,858 -25,827
2Q 2021 -43.3% -72.1% -22.0% -592,913 -52.0% -396,161 -83.0% -196,753 -29.6% -87,442 -70,759 -16,682
3Q 2021 -36.2% -53.8% -22.6% -553,262 -45.2% -343,255 -64.9% -210,007 -30.2% -81,590 -64,852 -16,738
4Q 2021 -30.5% -47.4% -19.0% -417,143 -38.0% -247,408 -56.4% -169,735 -25.8% -62,892 -49,248 -13,644
Total 2021 -39.8% -61.9% -23.9% -2,201,424 -49.0% -1,341,840 -72.4% -859,584 -32.5% -323,609 -250,717 -72,892
1Q 2022 -30.8% -45.3% -21.0% -408,256 -39.6% -222,465 -54.4% -185,791 -29.9% -57,179 -42,151 -15,028
2Q 2022 -25.9% -32.9% -20.7% -328,290 -28.8% -164,205 -34.4% -164,085 -24.7% -44,636 -30,868 -13,768
3Q 2022 -21.1% -29.5% -14.7% -281,342 -23.0% -154,615 -29.2% -126,727 -18.2% -38,981 -28,346 -10,635
4Q 2022 -24.4% to -24.2% -28.5% to -28.3% -21.6% to -21.3% -263,390 to -261,098 -24.0% to -23.8% -118,347 to -117,100 -27.0% to -26.7% -145,044 to -143,069 -22.0% to -21.7% -34,383 to -34,157 -22,577 to -22,450 -11,816 to -11,646
Total 2022 -25.4% to -25.3% -33.7% to -33.6% -19.5% to -19.4% -1,281,278 to -1,278,986 -28.5% to -28.5% -659,631 to -658,385 -35.6% to -35.5% -621,647 to -619,673 -23.5% to -23.5% -175,179 to -174,953-123,942 to -123,816 -51,247 to -51,077

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
Baseline Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -19.6% -24.5% -16.2% -286,114 -26.6% -119,027 -27.9% -167,086 -25.7% -36,643 -21,802 -14,841
2Q 2020 -78.8% -92.8% -68.5% -1,025,019 -86.8% -479,340 -96.8% -545,678 -79.5% -135,148 -85,383 -49,765
3Q 2020 -56.6% -76.1% -41.7% -864,643 -68.2% -470,410 -86.0% -394,233 -54.7% -121,608 -85,671 -35,936
4Q 2020 -49.1% -76.3% -30.5% -687,938 -61.0% -390,623 -86.6% -297,315 -43.9% -99,804 -72,404 -27,401
Total 2020 -51.6% -68.7% -39.4% -2,863,713 -61.5% -1,459,400 -76.0% -1,404,313 -51.4% -393,202 -265,259 -127,943
1Q 2021 -52.6% -77.0% -36.2% -709,653 -64.3% -380,902 -87.6% -328,751 -49.2% -100,481 -70,500 -29,982
2Q 2021 -46.5% -73.9% -25.9% -667,266 -54.9% -428,960 -84.1% -238,306 -33.8% -97,390 -76,809 -20,581
3Q 2021 -40.3% -56.9% -27.6% -646,647 -49.1% -382,051 -67.3% -264,596 -35.3% -93,957 -72,101 -21,856
4Q 2021 -34.4% -50.4% -23.3% -489,206 -41.8% -275,435 -59.1% -213,772 -30.4% -72,871 -55,170 -17,702
Total 2021 -43.3% -64.2% -28.2% -2,512,772 -52.3% -1,467,347 -74.2% -1,045,425 -37.0% -364,700 -274,580 -90,120
1Q 2022 -36.6% -49.7% -27.8% -514,845 -45.2% -261,699 -58.4% -253,146 -36.7% -70,395 -49,147 -21,249
2Q 2022 -32.1% -39.2% -26.7% -443,296 -35.3% -216,326 -40.9% -226,970 -31.2% -60,114 -40,419 -19,696
3Q 2022 -29.1% -36.7% -23.2% -430,045 -31.3% -217,998 -36.8% -212,048 -27.1% -58,792 -40,125 -18,667
4Q 2022 -31.1% to -30.9% -35.1% to -34.8% -28.4% to -28.1% -380,530 to -378,238 -31.3% to -31.1% -164,955 to -163,708 -34.0% to -33.8% -215,575 to -213,601 -29.5% to -29.3% -50,694 to -50,468 -32,380 to -32,253 -18,325 to -18,154
Total 2022 -32.1% to -32.0% -39.8% to -39.8% -26.5% to -26.4% -1,768,715 to -1,766,424 -35.5% to -35.5% -860,977 to -859,731 -41.9% to -41.8% -907,738 to -905,764 -31.0% to -30.9% -239,995 to -239,769-162,069 to -161,943-77,936 to -77,766

35
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - World Total International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
World (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 177,268 182,398 170,726 -6,542 -3.7% -11,672 -6.4% 186,217 47,019 -130,249 -73.5% -123,707 -72.5% -139,198 -74.8%
Actual
February 161,518 171,001 145,018 -16,499 -10.2% -25,982 -15.2% 174,775 36,649 -124,869 -77.3% -108,370 -74.7% -138,126 -79.0%
March 180,307 186,297 91,574 -88,732 -49.2% -94,723 -50.8% 189,048 42,937 -137,370 -76.2% -48,638 -53.1% -146,112 -77.3% Scenario 1
-20%
April 187,238 193,388 11,566 -175,673 -93.8% -181,823 -94.0% 199,445 46,603 -140,636 -75.1% 35,037 302.9% -152,843 -76.6% Scenario 1a
May 196,728 202,872 12,888 -183,839 -93.4% -189,984 -93.6% 208,089 51,292 -145,436 -73.9% 38,403 298.0% -156,797 -75.4% Scenario 2
June 203,837 211,262 19,259 -184,578 -90.6% -192,003 -90.9% 219,279 65,985 -137,852 -67.6% 46,726 242.6% -153,294 -69.9%
-40% Scenario 2a
July 217,084 223,881 45,476 -171,608 -79.1% -178,405 -79.7% 232,917 93,858 -123,226 -56.8% 48,382 106.4% -139,059 -59.7%
August 217,866 224,512 59,849 -158,017 -72.5% -164,663 -73.3% 233,587 102,562 -115,305 -52.9% 42,713 71.4% -131,025 -56.1% Reference
September 201,248 206,939 51,625 -149,623 -74.3% -155,315 -75.1% 214,691 97,450 -103,798 -51.6% 45,825 88.8% -117,242 -54.6%
October 196,081 199,529 49,530 -146,552 -74.7% -150,000 -75.2% 205,593 100,268 -95,813 -48.9% 50,739 102.4% -105,325 -51.2% -60%
November 171,448 174,904 38,381 -133,067 -77.6% -136,523 -78.1% 180,781 90,244 -81,204 -47.4% 51,863 135.1% -90,537 -50.1%
December 181,235 187,894 45,385 -135,850 -75.0% -142,509 -75.8% 196,151 98,302 -82,933 -45.8% 52,917 116.6% -97,848 -49.9%
1Q 519,092 539,696 407,318 -111,774 -21.5% -132,378 -24.5% 550,040 126,604 -392,488 -75.6% -280,714 -68.9% -423,436 -77.0% -80%
2Q 587,803 607,522 43,713 -544,090 -92.6% -563,809 -92.8% 626,813 163,879 -423,924 -72.1% 120,166 274.9% -462,934 -73.9%
3Q 636,198 655,332 156,950 -479,248 -75.3% -498,383 -76.1% 681,196 293,870 -342,329 -53.8% 136,920 87.2% -387,326 -56.9%
4Q 548,765 562,327 133,296 -415,469 -75.7% -429,031 -76.3% 582,525 288,815 -259,950 -47.4% 155,519 116.7% -293,710 -50.4%
-100%
Total 2,291,858 2,364,878 741,277 -1,550,581 -67.7% -1,623,601 -68.7% 2,440,574 873,168 -1,418,690 -61.9% 131,891 17.8% -1,567,406 -64.2%

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - World Total International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 191,196 93,089 93,089 93,089 93,089 93,089 -84,179 -47.5% 46,070 98.0% -98,107 -51.3%
February 180,560 85,651 85,651 85,651 85,651 85,651 -75,867 -47.0% 49,002 133.7% -94,909 -52.6%
March 193,207 105,400 105,400 105,400 105,400 105,400 -74,907 -41.5% 62,463 145.5% -87,808 -45.4%
April 206,171 120,823 120,823 120,823 120,823 120,823 -66,415 -35.5% 74,220 159.3% -85,348 -41.4%
May 214,237 133,670 133,670 133,670 133,670 133,670 -63,057 -32.1% 82,379 160.6% -80,566 -37.6%
June 228,062 139,876 139,876 139,876 139,876 139,876 -63,960 -31.4% 73,892 112.0% -88,186 -38.7%
July 242,436 154,776 154,776 154,776 154,776 154,776 -62,309 -28.7% 60,917 64.9% -87,660 -36.2%
August 243,138 153,163 153,163 153,163 153,163 153,163 -64,704 -29.7% 50,601 49.3% -89,976 -37.0%
September 222,820 140,782 140,782 140,782 140,782 140,782 -60,466 -30.0% 43,333 44.5% -82,038 -36.8%
October 211,907 140,760 140,760 140,760 140,760 140,760 -55,322 -28.2% 40,492 40.4% -71,147 -33.6%
November 186,980 120,885 120,885 120,885 120,885 120,885 -50,563 -29.5% 30,641 34.0% -66,094 -35.3%
December 205,095 130,981 131,850 131,207 130,591 123,918 -50,644 to -49,385 -27.9% to -27.2% 32,289 to 33,548 32.8% to 34.1% -74,504 to -73,245 -36.3% to -35.7%
1Q 564,964 284,140 284,140 284,140 284,140 284,140 -234,953 -45.3% 157,536 124.4% -280,824 -49.7%
2Q 648,470 394,370 394,370 394,370 394,370 394,370 -193,433 -32.9% 230,491 140.6% -254,100 -39.2%
3Q 708,394 448,721 448,721 448,721 448,721 448,721 -187,478 -29.5% 154,851 52.7% -259,674 -36.7%
4Q 603,981 392,626 393,495 392,852 392,236 385,563 -156,528 to -155,270 -28.5% to -28.3% 103,421 to 104,680 35.8% to 36.2% -211,745 to -210,486 -35.1% to -34.8%
Total 2,525,810 1,519,856 1,520,725 1,520,083 1,519,466 1,512,793 -772,392 to -771,133 -33.7% to -33.6% 646,299 to 647,558 74.0% to 74.2%-1,006,344 to -1,005,085 -39.8% to -39.8%

Source: ICAO estimates 36


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - World Total Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
World (Domestic)
January 262,466 271,354 267,346 4,879 1.9% -4,008 -1.5% 279,239 172,628 -89,839 -34.2% -94,718 -35.4% -106,611 -38.2%
February 240,234 253,610 210,847 -29,387 -12.2% -42,763 -16.9% 259,500 147,244 -92,990 -38.7% -63,602 -30.2% -112,256 -43.3% 0%
March 264,736 272,566 190,067 -74,668 -28.2% -82,498 -30.3% 276,956 200,416 -64,320 -24.3% 10,349 5.4% -76,540 -27.6%
April 258,831 265,004 70,290 -188,541 -72.8% -194,714 -73.5% 271,114 207,908 -50,923 -19.7% 137,618 195.8% -63,207 -23.3%
May 269,054 276,690 78,467 -190,587 -70.8% -198,223 -71.6% 283,849 206,001 -63,053 -23.4% 127,534 162.5% -77,849 -27.4%
-20%
June 267,016 275,513 108,917 -158,100 -59.2% -166,596 -60.5% 281,992 205,899 -61,117 -22.9% 96,982 89.0% -76,093 -27.0%
July 282,148 292,148 157,802 -124,347 -44.1% -134,346 -46.0% 303,898 228,519 -53,629 -19.0% 70,717 44.8% -75,379 -24.8%
August 280,440 287,236 175,065 -105,375 -37.6% -112,170 -39.1% 296,278 203,885 -76,556 -27.3% 28,819 16.5% -92,393 -31.2%
September 266,257 275,280 165,264 -100,993 -37.9% -110,017 -40.0% 285,871 208,762 -57,495 -21.6% 43,498 26.3% -77,109 -27.0% -40%
October 274,296 280,033 188,072 -86,225 -31.4% -91,961 -32.8% 290,171 222,523 -51,773 -18.9% 34,451 18.3% -67,648 -23.3%
November 260,526 265,144 184,804 -75,722 -29.1% -80,340 -30.3% 272,924 206,716 -53,810 -20.7% 21,912 11.9% -66,209 -24.3% Actual
December 267,896 275,092 196,934 -70,962 -26.5% -78,158 -28.4% 285,142 220,939 -46,957 -17.5% 24,005 12.2% -64,204 -22.5%
-60% Scenario 1
1Q 767,436 797,529 668,260 -99,176 -12.9% -129,269 -16.2% 815,695 520,288 -247,148 -32.2% -147,972 -22.1% -295,406 -36.2%
2Q 794,902 817,206 257,674 -537,228 -67.6% -559,533 -68.5% 836,956 619,808 -175,094 -22.0% 362,134 140.5% -217,148 -25.9% Scenario 1a
3Q 828,845 854,664 498,131 -330,715 -39.9% -356,533 -41.7% 886,046 641,166 -187,680 -22.6% 143,035 28.7% -244,881 -27.6% Scenario 2
4Q 802,717 820,268 569,809 -232,909 -29.0% -250,459 -30.5% 848,237 650,177 -152,541 -19.0% 80,368 14.1% -198,061 -23.3% -80%
Total 3,193,901 3,289,668 1,993,874 -1,200,027 -37.6% -1,295,794 -39.4% 3,386,935 2,431,439 -762,462 -23.9% 437,565 21.9% -955,496 -28.2% Scenario 2a
Reference
Seat Capacity (thousand) - World Total Domestic -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 288,715 212,203 212,203 212,203 212,203 212,203 -50,263 -19.2% 39,576 22.9% -76,512 -26.5%
February 268,123 194,337 194,337 194,337 194,337 194,337 -45,897 -19.1% 47,092 32.0% -73,786 -27.5%
March 283,205 199,906 199,906 199,906 199,906 199,906 -64,830 -24.5% -510 -0.3% -83,300 -29.4%
April 278,160 192,556 192,556 192,556 192,556 192,556 -66,275 -25.6% -15,352 -7.4% -85,603 -30.8%
May 292,146 213,000 213,000 213,000 213,000 213,000 -56,054 -20.8% 6,999 3.4% -79,146 -27.1%
June 289,930 224,831 224,831 224,831 224,831 224,831 -42,186 -15.8% 18,931 9.2% -65,100 -22.5%
July 316,771 248,962 248,962 248,962 248,962 248,962 -33,186 -11.8% 20,443 8.9% -67,809 -21.4%
August 306,027 240,860 240,860 240,860 240,860 240,860 -39,580 -14.1% 36,975 18.1% -65,167 -21.3%
September 297,475 216,860 216,860 216,860 216,860 216,860 -49,396 -18.6% 8,099 3.9% -80,614 -27.1%
October 300,898 215,862 215,862 215,862 215,862 215,862 -58,434 -21.3% -6,661 -3.0% -85,036 -28.3%
November 281,299 200,906 200,906 200,906 200,906 200,906 -59,620 -22.9% -5,809 -2.8% -80,393 -28.6%
December 296,007 215,022 212,221 212,803 212,935 204,736 -55,675 to -52,874 -20.8% to -19.7% -8,717 to -5,917 -3.9% to -2.7% -83,786 to -80,985 -28.3% to -27.4%
1Q 840,043 606,446 606,446 606,446 606,446 606,446 -160,991 -21.0% 86,157 16.6% -233,597 -27.8%
2Q 860,236 630,386 630,386 630,386 630,386 630,386 -164,515 -20.7% 10,579 1.7% -229,850 -26.7%
3Q 920,272 706,682 706,682 706,682 706,682 706,682 -122,163 -14.7% 65,517 10.2% -213,590 -23.2%
4Q 878,204 631,789 628,989 629,571 629,703 621,504 -173,729 to -170,928 -21.6% to -21.3% -21,188 to -18,387 -3.3% to -2.8% -249,215 to -246,414 -28.4% to -28.1%
Total 3,498,755 2,575,304 2,572,504 2,573,085 2,573,218 2,565,019 -621,397 to -618,597 -19.5% to -19.4% 141,065 to 143,866 5.8% to 5.9% -926,252 to -923,451 -26.5% to -26.4%

Source: ICAO estimates 37


Seat capacity

Seat Capacity (thousand) - World Total International + Domestic


Year 2019 2020 2021 World (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline 0%
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 439,734 453,752 438,072 -1,663 -0.4% -15,680 -3.5% 465,456 219,647 -220,088 -50.1% -218,425 -49.9% -245,809 -52.8%
February 401,752 424,610 355,865 -45,887 -11.4% -68,745 -16.2% 434,275 183,893 -217,859 -54.2% -171,972 -48.3% -250,382 -57.7%
March 445,042 458,863 281,642 -163,401 -36.7% -177,221 -38.6% 466,004 243,353 -201,690 -45.3% -38,289 -13.6% -222,651 -47.8% -20%
April 446,070 458,392 81,855 -364,214 -81.6% -376,537 -82.1% 470,560 254,510 -191,559 -42.9% 172,655 210.9% -216,049 -45.9%
May 465,782 479,562 91,356 -374,426 -80.4% -388,206 -81.0% 491,938 257,293 -208,489 -44.8% 165,937 181.6% -234,646 -47.7%
June 470,853 486,774 128,176 -342,678 -72.8% -358,599 -73.7% 501,271 271,884 -198,969 -42.3% 143,708 112.1% -229,387 -45.8% -40%
July 499,233 516,029 203,278 -295,955 -59.3% -312,751 -60.6% 536,815 322,377 -176,855 -35.4% 119,100 58.6% -214,437 -39.9%
August 498,306 511,748 234,914 -263,392 -52.9% -276,833 -54.1% 529,865 306,446 -191,860 -38.5% 71,532 30.5% -223,419 -42.2%
September 467,504 482,220 216,889 -250,616 -53.6% -265,331 -55.0% 500,562 306,211 -161,293 -34.5% 89,323 41.2% -194,351 -38.8%
-60% Actual
October 470,378 479,562 237,601 -232,776 -49.5% -241,961 -50.5% 495,764 322,791 -147,587 -31.4% 85,190 35.9% -172,973 -34.9%
November 431,974 440,048 223,185 -208,789 -48.3% -216,863 -49.3% 453,705 296,960 -135,014 -31.3% 73,775 33.1% -156,746 -34.5% Scenario 1
December 449,131 462,986 242,319 -206,812 -46.0% -220,667 -47.7% 481,293 319,241 -129,890 -28.9% 76,922 31.7% -162,052 -33.7% Scenario 1a
1Q 1,286,529 1,337,225 1,075,579 -210,950 -16.4% -261,647 -19.6% 1,365,735 646,893 -639,636 -49.7% -428,686 -39.9% -718,842 -52.6% -80% Scenario 2
2Q 1,382,705 1,424,728 301,386 -1,081,318 -78.2% -1,123,342 -78.8% 1,463,769 783,687 -599,018 -43.3% 482,300 160.0% -680,082 -46.5% Scenario 2a
3Q 1,465,043 1,509,996 655,080 -809,963 -55.3% -854,916 -56.6% 1,567,242 935,035 -530,008 -36.2% 279,955 42.7% -632,207 -40.3%
Reference
4Q 1,351,482 1,382,595 703,105 -648,377 -48.0% -679,490 -49.1% 1,430,762 938,992 -412,491 -30.5% 235,887 33.5% -491,771 -34.4%
-100%
Total 5,485,759 5,654,545 2,735,150 -2,750,609 -50.1% -2,919,395 -51.6% 5,827,509 3,304,606 -2,181,153 -39.8% 569,456 20.8% -2,522,902 -43.3%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Nov 20
Jan 20

Jan 21

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - World Total International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 479,912 305,293 305,293 305,293 305,293 305,293 -134,442 -30.6% 85,646 39.0% -174,619 -36.4%
February 448,683 279,988 279,988 279,988 279,988 279,988 -121,764 -30.3% 96,095 52.3% -168,695 -37.6%
March 476,413 305,305 305,305 305,305 305,305 305,305 -139,737 -31.4% 61,953 25.5% -171,107 -35.9%
April 484,331 313,379 313,379 313,379 313,379 313,379 -132,690 -29.7% 58,869 23.1% -170,952 -35.3%
May 506,383 346,670 346,670 346,670 346,670 346,670 -119,112 -25.6% 89,378 34.7% -159,713 -31.5%
June 517,993 364,707 364,707 364,707 364,707 364,707 -106,146 -22.5% 92,823 34.1% -153,286 -29.6%
July 559,206 403,738 403,738 403,738 403,738 403,738 -95,495 -19.1% 81,360 25.2% -155,469 -27.8%
August 549,165 394,023 394,023 394,023 394,023 394,023 -104,284 -20.9% 87,576 28.6% -155,142 -28.3%
September 520,295 357,643 357,643 357,643 357,643 357,643 -109,862 -23.5% 51,431 16.8% -162,653 -31.3%
October 512,804 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 -113,756 -24.2% 33,831 10.5% -156,183 -30.5%
November 468,279 321,791 321,791 321,791 321,791 321,791 -110,182 -25.5% 24,831 8.4% -146,488 -31.3%
December 501,102 346,002 344,071 344,010 343,526 328,654 -105,605 to -103,129 -23.5% to -23.0% 24,286 to 26,761 7.6% to 8.4% -157,576 to -155,100 -31.4% to -31.0%
1Q 1,405,007 890,586 890,586 890,586 890,586 890,586 -395,943 -30.8% 243,693 37.7% -514,421 -36.6%
2Q 1,508,706 1,024,756 1,024,756 1,024,756 1,024,756 1,024,756 -357,948 -25.9% 241,069 30.8% -483,950 -32.1%
3Q 1,628,667 1,155,403 1,155,403 1,155,403 1,155,403 1,155,403 -309,640 -21.1% 220,368 23.6% -473,264 -29.1%
4Q 1,482,185 1,024,415 1,022,484 1,022,423 1,021,939 1,007,067 -329,543 to -327,067 -24.4% to -24.2% 82,948 to 85,424 8.8% to 9.1% -460,246 to -457,770 -31.1% to -30.9%
Total 6,024,565 4,095,160 4,093,229 4,093,168 4,092,684 4,077,812 -1,393,075 to -1,390,599 -25.4% to -25.3% 788,078 to 790,554 23.8% to 23.9%
-1,931,881 to -1,929,405 -32.1% to -32.0%

Source: ICAO estimates 38


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - World Total International
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline World (International)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 139,096 143,794 139,753 657 0.5% -4,040 -2.8% 146,670 20,818 -118,278 -85.0% -118,935 -85.1% -125,852 -85.8%
0%
February 126,481 134,532 110,292 -16,189 -12.8% -24,240 -18.0% 137,353 14,779 -111,702 -88.3% -95,513 -86.6% -122,574 -89.2%
Actual
March 143,577 149,031 58,284 -85,293 -59.4% -90,747 -60.9% 151,018 18,542 -125,035 -87.1% -39,742 -68.2% -132,476 -87.7%
-20% Scenario 1
April 153,025 158,823 3,471 -149,554 -97.7% -155,352 -97.8% 163,501 20,210 -132,815 -86.8% 16,739 482.3% -143,291 -87.6%
May 155,972 161,409 4,246 -151,726 -97.3% -157,163 -97.4% 165,062 24,152 -131,819 -84.5% 19,907 468.8% -140,909 -85.4% Scenario 1a
June 168,021 175,018 8,192 -159,829 -95.1% -166,825 -95.3% 181,254 36,495 -131,527 -78.3% 28,302 345.5% -144,759 -79.9% Scenario 2
July 182,533 189,198 22,147 -160,386 -87.9% -167,051 -88.3% 196,350 58,704 -123,829 -67.8% 36,558 165.1% -137,646 -70.1% -40% Scenario 2a
August 184,124 190,669 30,595 -153,529 -83.4% -160,074 -84.0% 197,878 66,882 -117,243 -63.7% 36,286 118.6% -130,996 -66.2% Reference
September 161,960 167,379 24,095 -137,865 -85.1% -143,285 -85.6% 173,184 59,776 -102,184 -63.1% 35,681 148.1% -113,408 -65.5%
October 156,831 160,262 22,114 -134,716 -85.9% -138,147 -86.2% 164,653 63,974 -92,857 -59.2% 41,860 189.3% -100,678 -61.1%
-60%
November 135,416 138,724 16,450 -118,966 -87.9% -122,274 -88.1% 143,107 59,912 -75,504 -55.8% 43,462 264.2% -83,195 -58.1%
December 146,056 152,104 21,902 -124,154 -85.0% -130,202 -85.6% 158,570 67,009 -79,047 -54.1% 45,106 205.9% -91,561 -57.7%
1Q 409,154 427,357 308,330 -100,825 -24.6% -119,027 -27.9% 435,041 54,139 -355,015 -86.8% -254,190 -82.4% -380,902 -87.6%
2Q 477,018 495,249 15,909 -461,109 -96.7% -479,340 -96.8% 509,817 80,857 -396,161 -83.0% 64,948 408.2% -428,960 -84.1%
-80%
3Q 528,617 547,246 76,836 -451,781 -85.5% -470,410 -86.0% 567,413 185,362 -343,255 -64.9% 108,525 141.2% -382,051 -67.3%
4Q 438,303 451,090 60,467 -377,836 -86.2% -390,623 -86.6% 466,330 190,895 -247,408 -56.4% 130,428 215.7% -275,435 -59.1%
Total 1,853,093 1,920,943 461,542 -1,391,550 -75.1% -1,459,400 -76.0% 1,978,600 511,253 -1,341,840 -72.4% 49,711 10.8% -1,467,347 -74.2% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Nov 20
Jan 21

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Passenger Number (thousand) - World Total International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 151,123 56,342 56,342 56,342 56,342 56,342 -82,754 -59.5% 35,524 170.6% -94,781 -62.7%
February 142,403 55,988 55,988 55,988 55,988 55,988 -70,493 -55.7% 41,208 278.8% -86,416 -60.7%
March 154,862 74,360 74,360 74,360 74,360 74,360 -69,218 -48.2% 55,817 301.0% -80,502 -52.0%
April 169,596 91,971 91,971 91,971 91,971 91,971 -61,054 -39.9% 71,761 355.1% -77,625 -45.8%
May 170,355 104,589 104,589 104,589 104,589 104,589 -51,383 -32.9% 80,436 333.0% -65,767 -38.6%
June 189,188 116,254 116,254 116,254 116,254 116,254 -51,768 -30.8% 79,759 218.5% -72,934 -38.6%
July 205,049 130,924 130,924 130,924 130,924 130,924 -51,609 -28.3% 72,220 123.0% -74,125 -36.1%
August 206,624 127,440 127,440 127,440 127,440 127,440 -56,685 -30.8% 60,558 90.5% -79,184 -38.3%
September 180,327 115,638 115,638 115,638 115,638 115,638 -46,322 -28.6% 55,862 93.5% -64,689 -35.9%
October 170,165 115,545 115,545 115,545 115,545 115,545 -41,286 -26.3% 51,571 80.6% -54,620 -32.1%
November 148,421 97,550 97,550 97,550 97,550 97,550 -37,867 -28.0% 37,638 62.8% -50,871 -34.3%
December 166,326 107,180 108,109 107,364 106,862 103,793 -39,194 to -37,947 -26.8% to -26.0% 39,853 to 41,100 59.5% to 61.3% -59,464 to -58,217 -35.8% to -35.0%
1Q 448,388 186,689 186,689 186,689 186,689 186,689 -222,465 -54.4% 132,550 244.8% -261,699 -58.4%
2Q 529,139 312,813 312,813 312,813 312,813 312,813 -164,205 -34.4% 231,956 286.9% -216,326 -40.9%
3Q 592,000 374,002 374,002 374,002 374,002 374,002 -154,615 -29.2% 188,640 101.8% -217,998 -36.8%
4Q 484,912 320,274 321,204 320,459 319,957 316,888 -118,347 to -117,100 -27.0% to -26.7% 129,062 to 130,308 67.6% to 68.3% -164,955 to -163,708 -34.0% to -33.8%
Total 2,054,439 1,193,779 1,194,708 1,193,964 1,193,462 1,190,393 -659,631 to -658,385 -35.6% to -35.5% 682,208 to 683,455 133.4% to 133.7% -860,977 to -859,731 -41.9% to -41.8%

Source: ICAO estimates 39


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - World Total Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 World (Domestic)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 206,283 214,456 210,633 4,350 2.1% -3,823 -1.8% 221,720 102,742 -103,541 -50.2% -107,891 -51.2% -118,978 -53.7%
February 195,973 208,033 162,166 -33,807 -17.3% -45,867 -22.0% 213,856 93,987 -101,986 -52.0% -68,179 -42.0% -119,869 -56.1%
March 219,944 227,596 110,199 -109,745 -49.9% -117,397 -51.6% 232,285 142,381 -77,564 -35.3% 32,181 29.2% -89,904 -38.7% -20%
April 214,339 220,554 27,809 -186,530 -87.0% -192,745 -87.4% 226,556 151,332 -63,007 -29.4% 123,523 444.2% -75,224 -33.2%
May 223,305 230,786 44,392 -178,912 -80.1% -186,393 -80.8% 237,749 155,103 -68,201 -30.5% 110,711 249.4% -82,645 -34.8%
June 226,481 234,930 68,390 -158,091 -69.8% -166,540 -70.9% 241,374 160,937 -65,544 -28.9% 92,547 135.3% -80,437 -33.3%
July 241,015 250,908 99,795 -141,221 -58.6% -151,114 -60.2% 262,070 183,708 -57,307 -23.8% 83,913 84.1% -78,362 -29.9% -40%
August 237,819 244,691 111,758 -126,061 -53.0% -132,933 -54.3% 253,337 150,898 -86,921 -36.5% 39,140 35.0% -102,439 -40.4%
September 216,968 225,425 115,239 -101,729 -46.9% -110,186 -48.9% 234,983 151,189 -65,779 -30.3% 35,950 31.2% -83,794 -35.7%
October 226,690 232,649 131,906 -94,784 -41.8% -100,743 -43.3% 242,064 169,079 -57,611 -25.4% 37,173 28.2% -72,985 -30.2% -60% Actual
November 212,213 217,125 122,685 -89,528 -42.2% -94,440 -43.5% 224,437 154,874 -57,339 -27.0% 32,189 26.2% -69,563 -31.0% Scenario 1
December 220,156 227,287 125,156 -95,001 -43.2% -102,131 -44.9% 236,595 165,372 -54,784 -24.9% 40,216 32.1% -71,223 -30.1% Scenario 1a
1Q 622,200 650,085 482,998 -139,201 -22.4% -167,086 -25.7% 667,861 339,110 -283,090 -45.5% -143,889 -29.8% -328,751 -49.2% Scenario 2
-80%
2Q 664,125 686,270 140,592 -523,533 -78.8% -545,678 -79.5% 705,678 467,373 -196,753 -29.6% 326,781 232.4% -238,306 -33.8%
Scenario 2a
3Q 695,802 721,024 326,791 -369,010 -53.0% -394,233 -54.7% 750,390 485,795 -210,007 -30.2% 159,003 48.7% -264,596 -35.3%
4Q 659,059 677,061 379,747 -279,313 -42.4% -297,315 -43.9% 703,096 489,325 -169,735 -25.8% 109,578 28.9% -213,772 -30.4% Reference
Total 2,641,186 2,734,441 1,330,128 -1,311,058 -49.6% -1,404,313 -51.4% 2,827,026 1,781,601 -859,584 -32.5% 451,473 33.9% -1,045,425 -37.0% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 20

Jul 22
Jul 21
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Passenger Number (thousand) - World Total Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 229,870 141,263 141,263 141,263 141,263 141,263 -65,020 -31.5% 38,521 37.5% -88,607 -38.5%
February 221,563 140,085 140,085 140,085 140,085 140,085 -55,888 -28.5% 46,098 49.0% -81,478 -36.8%
March 238,122 155,061 155,061 155,061 155,061 155,061 -64,883 -29.5% 12,681 8.9% -83,061 -34.9%
April 233,002 151,169 151,169 151,169 151,169 151,169 -63,170 -29.5% -163 -0.1% -81,833 -35.1%
May 245,282 167,863 167,863 167,863 167,863 167,863 -55,441 -24.8% 12,760 8.2% -77,419 -31.6%
June 248,725 181,008 181,008 181,008 181,008 181,008 -45,474 -20.1% 20,071 12.5% -67,718 -27.2%
July 273,868 202,846 202,846 202,846 202,846 202,846 -38,170 -15.8% 19,138 10.4% -71,023 -25.9%
August 262,219 191,939 191,939 191,939 191,939 191,939 -45,880 -19.3% 41,041 27.2% -70,280 -26.8%
September 245,034 174,290 174,290 174,290 174,290 174,290 -42,678 -19.7% 23,101 15.3% -70,744 -28.9%
October 251,570 177,275 177,275 177,275 177,275 177,275 -49,415 -21.8% 8,196 4.8% -74,296 -29.5%
November 231,831 163,205 163,205 163,205 163,205 163,205 -49,007 -23.1% 8,332 5.4% -68,626 -29.6%
December 246,189 175,510 173,631 174,200 173,536 168,464 -46,621 to -44,646 -21.2% to -20.3% 8,163 to 10,138 4.9% to 6.1% -72,654 to -70,679 -29.5% to -28.7%
1Q 689,554 436,409 436,409 436,409 436,409 436,409 -185,791 -29.9% 97,299 28.7% -253,146 -36.7%
2Q 727,010 500,040 500,040 500,040 500,040 500,040 -164,085 -24.7% 32,668 7.0% -226,970 -31.2%
3Q 781,122 569,074 569,074 569,074 569,074 569,074 -126,727 -18.2% 83,280 17.1% -212,048 -27.1%
4Q 729,591 515,990 514,111 514,680 514,016 508,944 -145,044 to -143,069 -22.0% to -21.7% 24,691 to 26,666 5.0% to 5.4% -215,575 to -213,601 -29.5% to -29.3%
Total 2,927,277 2,021,513 2,019,634 2,020,203 2,019,539 2,014,467 -621,647 to -619,673 -23.5% to -23.5% 237,937 to 239,912 13.4% to 13.5% -907,738 to -905,764 -31.0% to -30.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 40


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - World Total International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
World (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0%
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 345,379 358,249 350,386 5,007 1.4% -7,863 -2.2% 368,390 123,560 -221,819 -64.2% -226,826 -64.7% -244,830 -66.5%
February 322,454 342,565 272,458 -49,996 -15.5% -70,107 -20.5% 351,209 108,766 -213,688 -66.3% -163,692 -60.1% -242,443 -69.0%
March 363,521 376,627 168,483 -195,038 -53.7% -208,144 -55.3% 383,303 160,923 -202,599 -55.7% -7,561 -4.5% -222,380 -58.0% -20%
April 367,364 379,377 31,280 -336,084 -91.5% -348,097 -91.8% 390,057 171,542 -195,822 -53.3% 140,262 448.4% -218,515 -56.0%
May 379,276 392,195 48,638 -330,638 -87.2% -343,556 -87.6% 402,811 179,256 -200,020 -52.7% 130,617 268.5% -223,555 -55.5%
June 394,503 409,948 76,583 -317,920 -80.6% -333,365 -81.3% 422,628 197,432 -197,071 -50.0% 120,849 157.8% -225,196 -53.3% -40%
July 423,548 440,106 121,941 -301,607 -71.2% -318,165 -72.3% 458,420 242,412 -181,136 -42.8% 120,471 98.8% -216,008 -47.1%
August 421,943 435,360 142,353 -279,590 -66.3% -293,007 -67.3% 451,216 217,780 -204,163 -48.4% 75,427 53.0% -233,436 -51.7%
September 378,927 392,804 139,333 -239,594 -63.2% -253,471 -64.5% 408,167 210,965 -167,963 -44.3% 71,631 51.4% -197,203 -48.3%
-60% Actual
October 383,521 392,911 154,021 -229,500 -59.8% -238,890 -60.8% 406,717 233,053 -150,468 -39.2% 79,032 51.3% -173,664 -42.7%
November 347,629 355,849 139,135 -208,494 -60.0% -216,714 -60.9% 367,544 214,786 -132,844 -38.2% 75,651 54.4% -152,758 -41.6% Scenario 1
December 366,212 379,391 147,058 -219,155 -59.8% -232,334 -61.2% 395,165 232,381 -133,832 -36.5% 85,323 58.0% -162,784 -41.2% Scenario 1a
1Q 1,031,354 1,077,442 791,328 -240,026 -23.3% -286,114 -26.6% 1,102,902 393,249 -638,105 -61.9% -398,079 -50.3% -709,653 -64.3% -80% Scenario 2
2Q 1,141,143 1,181,519 156,501 -984,642 -86.3% -1,025,019 -86.8% 1,215,495 548,230 -592,913 -52.0% 391,729 250.3% -667,266 -54.9% Scenario 2a
3Q 1,224,419 1,268,270 403,628 -820,791 -67.0% -864,643 -68.2% 1,317,803 671,156 -553,262 -45.2% 267,529 66.3% -646,647 -49.1% Reference
4Q 1,097,363 1,128,152 440,214 -657,149 -59.9% -687,938 -61.0% 1,169,426 680,220 -417,143 -38.0% 240,006 54.5% -489,206 -41.8% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Nov 20
Jan 20

Jan 21

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Total 4,494,279 4,655,383 1,791,670 -2,702,608 -60.1% -2,863,713 -61.5% 4,805,626 2,292,855 -2,201,424 -49.0% 501,184 28.0% -2,512,772 -52.3%

Passenger Number (thousand) - World Total International + Domestic


Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 380,992 197,605 197,605 197,605 197,605 197,605 -147,774 -42.8% 74,045 59.9% -183,388 -48.1%
February 363,967 196,072 196,072 196,072 196,072 196,072 -126,381 -39.2% 87,306 80.3% -167,894 -46.1%
March 392,984 229,421 229,421 229,421 229,421 229,421 -134,101 -36.9% 68,498 42.6% -163,563 -41.6%
April 402,598 243,140 243,140 243,140 243,140 243,140 -124,224 -33.8% 71,598 41.7% -159,458 -39.6%
May 415,638 272,452 272,452 272,452 272,452 272,452 -106,824 -28.2% 93,196 52.0% -143,185 -34.4%
June 437,913 297,261 297,261 297,261 297,261 297,261 -97,241 -24.6% 99,829 50.6% -140,652 -32.1%
July 478,917 333,770 333,770 333,770 333,770 333,770 -89,778 -21.2% 91,358 37.7% -145,147 -30.3%
August 468,844 319,379 319,379 319,379 319,379 319,379 -102,565 -24.3% 101,599 46.7% -149,465 -31.9%
September 425,361 289,928 289,928 289,928 289,928 289,928 -88,999 -23.5% 78,963 37.4% -135,433 -31.8%
October 421,735 292,820 292,820 292,820 292,820 292,820 -90,701 -23.6% 59,767 25.6% -128,915 -30.6%
November 380,252 260,755 260,755 260,755 260,755 260,755 -86,874 -25.0% 45,969 21.4% -119,497 -31.4%
December 412,515 282,690 281,740 281,564 280,398 272,257 -85,815 to -83,523 -23.4% to -22.8% 48,017 to 50,309 20.7% to 21.6% -132,118 to -129,826 -32.0% to -31.5%
1Q 1,137,942 623,098 623,098 623,098 623,098 623,098 -408,256 -39.6% 229,849 58.4% -514,845 -45.2%
2Q 1,256,149 812,854 812,854 812,854 812,854 812,854 -328,290 -28.8% 264,624 48.3% -443,296 -35.3%
3Q 1,373,122 943,076 943,076 943,076 943,076 943,076 -281,342 -23.0% 271,920 40.5% -430,045 -31.3%
4Q 1,214,502 836,264 835,314 835,139 833,973 825,832 -263,390 to -261,098 -24.0% to -23.8% 153,753 to 156,045 22.6% to 22.9% -380,530 to -378,238 -31.3% to -31.1%
Total 4,981,716 3,215,292 3,214,342 3,214,167 3,213,000 3,204,859 -1,281,278 to -1,278,986 -28.5% to -28.5% 920,146 to 922,438 40.1% to 40.2%-1,768,715 to -1,766,424 -35.5% to -35.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 41


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - World Total International
Year 2019 2020 2021
World (International)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0
January 26,213 27,159 26,535 322 1.2% -623 -2.3% 27,776 4,043 -22,170 -84.6% -22,493 -84.8% -23,733 -85.4%
February 23,606 25,078 20,307 -3,299 -14.0% -4,771 -19.0% 25,541 2,957 -20,648 -87.5% -17,349 -85.4% -22,584 -88.4% Actual
March 26,693 27,501 11,094 -15,599 -58.4% -16,407 -59.7% 27,837 3,653 -23,040 -86.3% -7,441 -67.1% -24,183 -86.9% -5 Scenario 1
April 27,626 28,620 725 -26,901 -97.4% -27,895 -97.5% 29,510 3,840 -23,786 -86.1% 3,115 429.7% -25,670 -87.0% Scenario 1a
May 27,781 28,884 842 -26,939 -97.0% -28,042 -97.1% 29,704 4,417 -23,364 -84.1% 3,575 424.5% -25,287 -85.1%
Scenario 2
June 29,758 30,898 1,452 -28,306 -95.1% -29,445 -95.3% 32,002 6,149 -23,610 -79.3% 4,697 323.4% -25,853 -80.8% -10
Scenario 2a

Billions (USD)
July 32,364 33,527 3,285 -29,079 -89.8% -30,242 -90.2% 34,895 9,232 -23,132 -71.5% 5,946 181.0% -25,663 -73.5%
August 32,701 33,908 4,398 -28,303 -86.6% -29,510 -87.0% 35,325 10,392 -22,309 -68.2% 5,994 136.3% -24,933 -70.6% Reference
September 28,680 29,625 3,705 -24,975 -87.1% -25,920 -87.5% 30,774 9,269 -19,410 -67.7% 5,565 150.2% -21,505 -69.9% -15
October 28,095 28,788 3,698 -24,397 -86.8% -25,090 -87.2% 29,839 10,054 -18,041 -64.2% 6,356 171.8% -19,785 -66.3%
November 25,241 25,926 3,124 -22,117 -87.6% -22,802 -88.0% 26,956 10,059 -15,182 -60.2% 6,935 222.0% -16,898 -62.7%
December 27,548 28,660 4,149 -23,399 -84.9% -24,511 -85.5% 30,011 11,524 -16,024 -58.2% 7,375 177.8% -18,487 -61.6% -20
1Q 76,511 79,738 57,936 -18,575 -24.3% -21,802 -27.3% 81,153 10,654 -65,858 -86.1% -47,283 -81.6% -70,500 -86.9%
2Q 85,165 88,402 3,019 -82,146 -96.5% -85,383 -96.6% 91,215 14,406 -70,759 -83.1% 11,387 377.1% -76,809 -84.2%
3Q 93,745 97,060 11,389 -82,356 -87.9% -85,671 -88.3% 100,994 28,893 -64,852 -69.2% 17,505 153.7% -72,101 -71.4% -25
4Q 80,885 83,375 10,971 -69,914 -86.4% -72,404 -86.8% 86,806 31,637 -49,248 -60.9% 20,665 188.4% -55,170 -63.6%
Total 336,306 348,575 83,315 -252,991 -75.2% -265,259 -76.1% 360,169 85,589 -250,717 -74.6% 2,274 2.7% -274,580 -76.2%
-30

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 22
May 20

May 21
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - World Total International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 28,669 10,548 10,548 10,548 10,548 10,548 -15,665 -59.8% 6,505 160.9% -18,121 -63.2%
February 26,394 10,287 10,287 10,287 10,287 10,287 -13,319 -56.4% 7,329 247.8% -16,108 -61.0%
March 28,443 13,525 13,525 13,525 13,525 13,525 -13,168 -49.3% 9,872 270.2% -14,918 -52.4%
April 30,601 16,050 16,050 16,050 16,050 16,050 -11,575 -41.9% 12,210 318.0% -14,551 -47.6%
May 30,778 18,116 18,116 18,116 18,116 18,116 -9,665 -34.8% 13,699 310.1% -12,662 -41.1%
June 33,337 20,131 20,131 20,131 20,131 20,131 -9,627 -32.4% 13,982 227.4% -13,205 -39.6%
July 36,470 22,814 22,814 22,814 22,814 22,814 -9,550 -29.5% 13,583 147.1% -13,656 -37.4%
August 36,959 22,229 22,229 22,229 22,229 22,229 -10,472 -32.0% 11,837 113.9% -14,730 -39.9%
September 32,094 20,355 20,355 20,355 20,355 20,355 -8,325 -29.0% 11,086 119.6% -11,738 -36.6%
October 31,026 20,470 20,470 20,470 20,470 20,470 -7,625 -27.1% 10,416 103.6% -10,556 -34.0%
November 28,110 17,937 17,937 17,937 17,937 17,937 -7,304 -28.9% 7,878 78.3% -10,173 -36.2%
December 31,552 19,967 20,027 20,005 19,901 19,534 -7,648 to -7,521 -27.8% to -27.3% 8,377 to 8,503 72.7% to 73.8% -11,651 to -11,524 -36.9% to -36.5%
1Q 83,506 34,360 34,360 34,360 34,360 34,360 -42,151 -55.1% 23,706 222.5% -49,147 -58.9%
2Q 94,716 54,298 54,298 54,298 54,298 54,298 -30,868 -36.2% 39,892 276.9% -40,419 -42.7%
3Q 105,523 65,398 65,398 65,398 65,398 65,398 -28,346 -30.2% 36,505 126.3% -40,125 -38.0%
4Q 90,688 58,374 58,435 58,412 58,308 57,942 -22,577 to -22,450 -27.9% to -27.8% 26,672 to 26,798 84.3% to 84.7% -32,380 to -32,253 -35.7% to -35.6%
Total 374,434 212,430 212,491 212,468 212,364 211,998 -123,942 to -123,816 -36.9% to -36.8% 126,775 to 126,901 148.1% to 148.3% -162,069 to -161,943 -43.3% to -43.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 42


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - World Total Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 World (Domestic)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 18,509 19,205 18,973 464 2.5% -232 -1.2% 19,893 9,065 -9,444 -51.0% -9,908 -52.2% -10,828 -54.4%
February 17,608 18,679 14,763 -2,845 -16.2% -3,916 -21.0% 19,236 8,310 -9,298 -52.8% -6,453 -43.7% -10,926 -56.8% -2
March 20,000 20,656 9,963 -10,037 -50.2% -10,692 -51.8% 21,143 12,915 -7,085 -35.4% 2,952 29.6% -8,228 -38.9%
-4
April 19,459 20,028 2,492 -16,967 -87.2% -17,536 -87.6% 20,598 13,819 -5,640 -29.0% 11,327 454.5% -6,779 -32.9%
May 20,350 21,037 4,092 -16,259 -79.9% -16,945 -80.5% 21,697 14,613 -5,737 -28.2% 10,522 257.1% -7,084 -32.6% -6

Billions (USD)
June 20,675 21,495 6,211 -14,464 -70.0% -15,284 -71.1% 22,087 15,369 -5,305 -25.7% 9,158 147.5% -6,718 -30.4%
July 21,934 22,894 8,994 -12,940 -59.0% -13,899 -60.7% 23,959 17,552 -4,382 -20.0% 8,558 95.1% -6,407 -26.7% -8
August 21,554 22,171 10,134 -11,420 -53.0% -12,037 -54.3% 22,966 14,440 -7,114 -33.0% 4,306 42.5% -8,526 -37.1%
September 19,524 20,306 10,307 -9,217 -47.2% -10,000 -49.2% 21,204 14,281 -5,242 -26.9% 3,975 38.6% -6,923 -32.6% -10
October 20,451 21,027 11,749 -8,702 -42.5% -9,278 -44.1% 21,877 15,901 -4,550 -22.2% 4,152 35.3% -5,977 -27.3% Actual
November 19,000 19,436 10,834 -8,166 -43.0% -8,602 -44.3% 20,074 14,494 -4,506 -23.7% 3,660 33.8% -5,581 -27.8% -12 Scenario 1
December 19,874 20,552 11,031 -8,843 -44.5% -9,521 -46.3% 21,431 15,286 -4,588 -23.1% 4,255 38.6% -6,144 -28.7% Scenario 1a
1Q 56,117 58,540 43,699 -12,418 -22.1% -14,841 -25.4% 60,272 30,290 -25,827 -46.0% -13,409 -30.7% -29,982 -49.7% -14
Scenario 2
2Q 60,484 62,560 12,795 -47,689 -78.8% -49,765 -79.5% 64,383 43,802 -16,682 -27.6% 31,007 242.3% -20,581 -32.0%
-16 Scenario 2a
3Q 63,011 65,371 29,435 -33,576 -53.3% -35,936 -55.0% 68,129 46,273 -16,738 -26.6% 16,838 57.2% -21,856 -32.1%
Reference
4Q 59,324 61,015 33,614 -25,710 -43.3% -27,401 -44.9% 63,382 45,681 -13,644 -23.0% 12,066 35.9% -17,702 -27.9%
-18
Total 238,937 247,485 119,543 -119,395 -50.0% -127,943 -51.7% 256,165 166,046 -72,892 -30.5% 46,503 38.9% -90,120 -35.2%

May 20

May 21

May 22

Sep 22
Sep 20

Sep 21
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - World Total Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 20,654 13,223 13,223 13,223 13,223 13,223 -5,286 -28.6% 4,158 45.9% -7,430 -36.0%
February 19,962 13,220 13,220 13,220 13,220 13,220 -4,388 -24.9% 4,910 59.1% -6,742 -33.8%
March 21,723 14,647 14,647 14,647 14,647 14,647 -5,353 -26.8% 1,731 13.4% -7,076 -32.6%
April 21,213 14,217 14,217 14,217 14,217 14,217 -5,242 -26.9% 398 2.9% -6,996 -33.0%
May 22,416 15,646 15,646 15,646 15,646 15,646 -4,704 -23.1% 1,033 7.1% -6,770 -30.2%
June 22,782 16,853 16,853 16,853 16,853 16,853 -3,822 -18.5% 1,483 9.7% -5,929 -26.0%
July 25,100 18,702 18,702 18,702 18,702 18,702 -3,232 -14.7% 1,150 6.5% -6,398 -25.5%
August 23,787 17,546 17,546 17,546 17,546 17,546 -4,008 -18.6% 3,106 21.5% -6,241 -26.2%
September 22,156 16,129 16,129 16,129 16,129 16,129 -3,395 -17.4% 1,847 12.9% -6,027 -27.2%
October 22,754 16,405 16,405 16,405 16,405 16,405 -4,046 -19.8% 504 3.2% -6,349 -27.9%
November 20,732 15,008 15,008 15,008 15,008 15,008 -3,992 -21.0% 514 3.5% -5,724 -27.6%
December 22,347 16,266 16,095 16,119 16,106 14,970 -3,778 to -3,608 -19.0% to -18.2% 809 to 980 5.3% to 6.4% -6,252 to -6,081 -28.0% to -27.2%
1Q 62,338 41,090 41,090 41,090 41,090 41,090 -15,028 -26.8% 10,799 35.7% -21,249 -34.1%
2Q 66,412 46,716 46,716 46,716 46,716 46,716 -13,768 -22.8% 2,914 6.7% -19,696 -29.7%
3Q 71,043 52,376 52,376 52,376 52,376 52,376 -10,635 -16.9% 6,103 13.2% -18,667 -26.3%
4Q 65,833 47,679 47,508 47,532 47,518 46,383 -11,816 to -11,646 -19.9% to -19.6% 1,827 to 1,998 4.0% to 4.4% -18,325 to -18,154 -27.8% to -27.6%
Total 265,626 187,861 187,690 187,714 187,700 186,565 -51,247 to -51,077 -21.4% to -21.4% 21,644 to 21,815 13.0% to 13.1% -77,936 to -77,766 -29.3% to -29.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 43


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - World Total International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
World (Total)
January 44,722 46,363 45,508 786 1.8% -855 -1.8% 47,669 13,108 -31,615 -70.7% -32,401 -71.2% -34,561 -72.5% 0
February 41,214 43,757 35,070 -6,144 -14.9% -8,688 -19.9% 44,777 11,267 -29,946 -72.7% -23,802 -67.9% -33,510 -74.8%
March 46,693 48,157 21,057 -25,636 -54.9% -27,100 -56.3% 48,979 16,569 -30,124 -64.5% -4,489 -21.3% -32,411 -66.2% -5
April 47,085 48,649 3,217 -43,868 -93.2% -45,431 -93.4% 50,108 17,659 -29,426 -62.5% 14,442 448.9% -32,448 -64.8%
May 48,132 49,921 4,934 -43,198 -89.7% -44,987 -90.1% 51,401 19,030 -29,101 -60.5% 14,097 285.7% -32,371 -63.0% -10
June 50,433 52,392 7,663 -42,770 -84.8% -44,729 -85.4% 54,089 21,518 -28,915 -57.3% 13,855 180.8% -32,571 -60.2%
July 54,298 56,421 12,280 -42,018 -77.4% -44,141 -78.2% 58,853 26,784 -27,514 -50.7% 14,504 118.1% -32,070 -54.5% -15

Billions (USD)
August 54,255 56,079 14,532 -39,723 -73.2% -41,547 -74.1% 58,291 24,832 -29,424 -54.2% 10,300 70.9% -33,460 -57.4%
September 48,203 49,931 14,011 -34,192 -70.9% -35,920 -71.9% 51,979 23,551 -24,652 -51.1% 9,539 68.1% -28,428 -54.7% -20
October 48,546 49,815 15,447 -33,099 -68.2% -34,368 -69.0% 51,716 25,955 -22,592 -46.5% 10,507 68.0% -25,761 -49.8%
November 44,241 45,362 13,958 -30,283 -68.5% -31,404 -69.2% 47,031 24,552 -19,688 -44.5% 10,595 75.9% -22,478 -47.8% -25
Actual
December 47,422 49,212 15,180 -32,242 -68.0% -34,032 -69.2% 51,441 26,810 -20,612 -43.5% 11,630 76.6% -24,631 -47.9%
1Q 132,629 138,278 101,635 -30,993 -23.4% -36,643 -26.5% 141,425 40,944 -91,685 -69.1% -60,692 -59.7% -100,481 -71.0% -30 Scenario 1
2Q 145,650 150,962 15,814 -129,835 -89.1% -135,148 -89.5% 155,598 58,208 -87,442 -60.0% 42,393 268.1% -97,390 -62.6% Scenario 1a
3Q 156,756 162,431 40,823 -115,933 -74.0% -121,608 -74.9% 169,123 75,166 -81,590 -52.0% 34,343 84.1% -93,957 -55.6% -35 Scenario 2
4Q 140,209 144,389 44,585 -95,624 -68.2% -99,804 -69.1% 150,188 77,317 -62,892 -44.9% 32,732 73.4% -72,871 -48.5% Scenario 2a
Total 575,244 596,060 202,858 -372,385 -64.7% -393,202 -66.0% 616,334 251,635 -323,609 -56.3% 48,776 24.0% -364,700 -59.2%
-40
Reference
-45
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - World Total International + Domestic

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Jul 20

Jul 21
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 49,322 23,771 23,771 23,771 23,771 23,771 -20,951 -46.8% 10,663 81.4% -25,551 -51.8%
February 46,356 23,506 23,506 23,506 23,506 23,506 -17,707 -43.0% 12,239 108.6% -22,850 -49.3%
March 50,166 28,172 28,172 28,172 28,172 28,172 -18,521 -39.7% 11,603 70.0% -21,994 -43.8%
April 51,815 30,267 30,267 30,267 30,267 30,267 -16,817 -35.7% 12,608 71.4% -21,547 -41.6%
May 53,194 33,762 33,762 33,762 33,762 33,762 -14,370 -29.9% 14,732 77.4% -19,432 -36.5%
June 56,119 36,984 36,984 36,984 36,984 36,984 -13,449 -26.7% 15,466 71.9% -19,135 -34.1%
July 61,570 41,516 41,516 41,516 41,516 41,516 -12,782 -23.5% 14,732 55.0% -20,054 -32.6%
August 60,747 39,775 39,775 39,775 39,775 39,775 -14,480 -26.7% 14,943 60.2% -20,972 -34.5%
September 54,250 36,484 36,484 36,484 36,484 36,484 -11,719 -24.3% 12,933 54.9% -17,766 -32.7%
October 53,780 36,875 36,875 36,875 36,875 36,875 -11,671 -24.0% 10,920 42.1% -16,905 -31.4%
November 48,842 32,945 32,945 32,945 32,945 32,945 -11,296 -25.5% 8,393 34.2% -15,897 -32.5%
December 53,899 36,233 36,123 36,124 36,007 34,505 -11,416 to -11,189 -24.1% to -23.6% 9,196 to 9,423 34.3% to 35.1% -17,892 to -17,666 -33.2% to -32.8%
1Q 145,845 75,450 75,450 75,450 75,450 75,450 -57,179 -43.1% 34,506 84.3% -70,395 -48.3%
2Q 161,128 101,014 101,014 101,014 101,014 101,014 -44,636 -30.6% 42,806 73.5% -60,114 -37.3%
3Q 176,566 117,775 117,775 117,775 117,775 117,775 -38,981 -24.9% 42,609 56.7% -58,792 -33.3%
4Q 156,521 106,053 105,943 105,944 105,826 104,325 -34,383 to -34,157 -24.5% to -24.4% 28,509 to 28,736 36.9% to 37.2% -50,694 to -50,468 -32.4% to -32.2%
Total 640,060 400,291 400,180 400,182 400,064 398,562 -175,179 to -174,953 -30.5% to -30.4% 148,430 to 148,656 59.0% to 59.1% -239,995 to -239,769 -37.5% to -37.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 44


2020/2021 Results and 2022 Estimates:
Region Breakdown

2022 figures and estimates herein reflect the latest operational data and schedules filed by airlines
but are subject to changes, and will be updated with the situation evolving
and more information available.

45
Breakdown by ICAO statistical region

• Regional breakdown follows ICAO’s six (6) statistical regions (Doc 9060)

• The same key impact indicators are presented under four (4) paths of two (2)
scenarios, in comparison to:
– Baseline scenario, 2019 level and 2020/2021 level
– by international and domestic, as well as month, quarter and year

• To avoid double counting:


– Number of “international” passengers departing from each country and territory are
aggregated in each region
– Gross passenger operating revenues of all airlines serving “international” routes from
each country and territory are aggregated at regional level

46
Seat capacity change compared to 2019:
International + Domestic
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
0% 0%

-20% -20%

-40% -40%

-60% Africa -60%


Asia/Pacific
Europe
-80% Latin America/Caribbean -80%
Middle East
North America
-100% -100%
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22

Scenario 1a Scenario 2a
0% 0%

-20% -20%

-40% -40%

-60% -60%

-80% -80%

-100% -100%
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22

Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, Routes Online and airline websites 47
Passenger number change compared to 2019:
International + Domestic
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
0% 0%

-20% -20%

-40% -40%

-60% Africa -60%


Asia/Pacific
Europe
-80% Latin America/Caribbean -80%
Middle East
North America
-100% -100%
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22

Scenario 1a Scenario 2a
0% 0%

-20% -20%

-40% -40%

-60% -60%

-80% -80%

-100% -100%
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22

Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistical Reporting, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook 48
Passenger revenue change compared to 2019:
International + Domestic
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4
Billions (USD)

Billions (USD)
-6 -6

-8 -8

-10 Africa -10


Asia/Pacific
Europe
-12 -12
Latin America/Caribbean
Middle East
-14 North America -14
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22

Scenario 1a Scenario 2a
0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4
Billions (USD)

Billions (USD)
-6 -6

-8 -8

-10 -10

-12 -12

-14 -14
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22

Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO-ICM MIDT, ICAO LTF, ICAO RCA, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook 49
Africa

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -12.2% -15.1% -7.3% -4,356 -16.1% -2,922 -17.2% -1,434 -14.3% -736 -606 -130
2Q 2020 -93.8% -93.8% -93.9% -27,097 -97.9% -17,687 -97.9% -9,410 -97.7% -4,639 -3,786 -853
3Q 2020 -75.1% -77.7% -70.1% -27,117 -85.5% -18,507 -87.8% -8,610 -81.1% -4,734 -3,954 -780
4Q 2020 -55.3% -61.8% -44.5% -19,886 -68.8% -13,715 -75.8% -6,171 -57.2% -3,548 -2,989 -559
Total 2020 -59.6% -63.1% -53.5% -78,456 -68.0% -52,831 -71.2% -25,625 -62.4% -13,657 -11,334 -2,323
1Q 2021 -50.2% -56.0% -40.6% -17,539 -64.9% -12,231 -72.0% -5,308 -52.7% -3,161 -2,680 -481
2Q 2021 -43.4% -54.2% -23.5% -16,235 -58.6% -12,715 -70.4% -3,520 -36.6% -3,049 -2,730 -319
3Q 2021 -37.6% -40.9% -31.4% -15,829 -49.9% -11,383 -54.0% -4,445 -41.9% -2,903 -2,500 -403
4Q 2021 -26.8% -31.9% -18.6% -10,574 -36.6% -7,731 -42.7% -2,843 -26.4% -2,024 -1,766 -258
Total 2021 -39.3% -45.5% -28.4% -60,177 -52.2% -44,061 -59.4% -16,116 -39.2% -11,138 -9,677 -1,461
1Q 2022 -31.6% -34.3% -27.2% -10,292 -38.1% -7,094 -41.8% -3,198 -31.8% -1,794 -1,504 -290
2Q 2022 -20.3% -19.7% -21.3% -5,590 -20.2% -3,554 -19.7% -2,036 -21.2% -932 -747 -185
3Q 2022 -18.3% -17.6% -19.7% -5,292 -16.7% -3,406 -16.2% -1,886 -17.8% -851 -680 -171
4Q 2022 -16.5% to -16.1% -13.8% to -13.2% -20.8% to -20.6% -3,510 to -3,340 -12.1% to -11.6% -1,817 to -1,679 -10.0% to -9.3% -1,692 to -1,662 -15.7% to -15.4% -608 to -576 -455 to -425 -153 to -151
Total 2022 -21.5% to -21.4% -21.1% to -21.0% -22.2% to -22.1% -24,684 to -24,515 -21.4% to -21.3% -15,871 to -15,732 -21.4% to -21.2% -8,813 to -8,782 -21.4% to -21.4% -4,185 to -4,152 -3,386 to -3,356 -799 to -796

50
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Africa International
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Africa (International)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 8,184 8,867 8,007 -177 -2.2% -860 -9.7% 9,090 3,869 -4,315 -52.7% -4,138 -51.7% -5,221 -57.4% 0%
February 7,215 8,155 7,268 53 0.7% -888 -10.9% 8,414 3,106 -4,109 -56.9% -4,161 -57.3% -5,308 -63.1%
March 8,128 8,807 4,709 -3,419 -42.1% -4,098 -46.5% 8,917 3,382 -4,746 -58.4% -1,327 -28.2% -5,536 -62.1%
April 8,061 8,756 371 -7,690 -95.4% -8,384 -95.8% 9,260 3,468 -4,593 -57.0% 3,097 833.7% -5,792 -62.5%
May 7,997 8,733 468 -7,529 -94.2% -8,266 -94.6% 9,300 3,529 -4,468 -55.9% 3,061 654.5% -5,771 -62.1% -20%
June 8,509 9,306 687 -7,822 -91.9% -8,619 -92.6% 9,980 4,243 -4,266 -50.1% 3,556 517.5% -5,737 -57.5%
July 9,379 9,985 1,636 -7,743 -82.6% -8,349 -83.6% 10,698 5,413 -3,967 -42.3% 3,777 230.9% -5,285 -49.4%
August 9,659 10,188 2,220 -7,439 -77.0% -7,968 -78.2% 10,886 5,597 -4,062 -42.1% 3,377 152.1% -5,290 -48.6%
-40%
September 8,588 9,183 2,314 -6,274 -73.1% -6,870 -74.8% 9,766 5,314 -3,273 -38.1% 3,001 129.7% -4,451 -45.6%
October 8,310 8,815 2,907 -5,403 -65.0% -5,908 -67.0% 9,284 5,704 -2,606 -31.4% 2,797 96.2% -3,580 -38.6%
November 7,929 8,500 2,968 -4,961 -62.6% -5,531 -65.1% 8,929 5,789 -2,139 -27.0% 2,821 95.0% -3,140 -35.2%
December 8,576 9,290 3,592 -4,984 -58.1% -5,699 -61.3% 9,870 5,412 -3,164 -36.9% 1,820 50.7% -4,458 -45.2% -60% Actual
1Q 23,527 25,830 19,984 -3,543 -15.1% -5,846 -22.6% 26,421 10,357 -13,170 -56.0% -9,627 -48.2% -16,064 -60.8% Scenario 1
2Q 24,567 26,795 1,526 -23,041 -93.8% -25,269 -94.3% 28,540 11,240 -13,327 -54.2% 9,714 636.4% -17,300 -60.6%
3Q 27,626 29,356 6,170 -21,456 -77.7% -23,186 -79.0% 31,350 16,324 -11,302 -40.9% 10,154 164.6% -15,026 -47.9%
Scenario 1a
4Q 24,815 26,605 9,467 -15,348 -61.8% -17,138 -64.4% 28,083 16,905 -7,909 -31.9% 7,438 78.6% -11,178 -39.8% -80% Scenario 2
Total 100,535 108,586 37,147 -63,387 -63.1% -71,439 -65.8% 114,394 54,827 -45,708 -45.5% 17,679 47.6% -59,568 -52.1% Scenario 2a
Reference
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Africa International -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Jul 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jul 20
Jan 20

Jan 22
Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 9,459 4,685 4,685 4,685 4,685 4,685 -3,500 -42.8% 815 21.1% -4,774 -50.5%
February 8,876 4,796 4,796 4,796 4,796 4,796 -2,419 -33.5% 1,690 54.4% -4,080 -46.0%
March 9,194 5,973 5,973 5,973 5,973 5,973 -2,155 -26.5% 2,591 76.6% -3,221 -35.0%
April 9,869 6,137 6,137 6,137 6,137 6,137 -1,925 -23.9% 2,668 76.9% -3,733 -37.8%
May 9,992 6,674 6,674 6,674 6,674 6,674 -1,323 -16.5% 3,145 89.1% -3,318 -33.2%
June 10,789 6,907 6,907 6,907 6,907 6,907 -1,603 -18.8% 2,664 62.8% -3,883 -36.0%
July 11,475 8,020 8,020 8,020 8,020 8,020 -1,360 -14.5% 2,607 48.2% -3,455 -30.1%
August 11,634 7,683 7,683 7,683 7,683 7,683 -1,976 -20.5% 2,086 37.3% -3,951 -34.0%
September 10,418 7,067 7,067 7,067 7,067 7,067 -1,521 -17.7% 1,753 33.0% -3,351 -32.2%
October 9,818 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 -1,110 -13.4% 1,496 26.2% -2,619 -26.7%
November 9,449 6,825 6,825 6,825 6,825 6,825 -1,104 -13.9% 1,035 17.9% -2,624 -27.8%
December 10,562 7,378 7,504 7,390 7,359 6,544 -1,217 to -1,072 -14.2% to -12.5% 1,947 to 2,092 36.0% to 38.7% -3,204 to -3,059 -30.3% to -29.0%
1Q 27,529 15,454 15,454 15,454 15,454 15,454 -8,073 -34.3% 5,097 49.2% -12,075 -43.9%
2Q 30,650 19,717 19,717 19,717 19,717 19,717 -4,850 -19.7% 8,477 75.4% -10,933 -35.7%
3Q 33,526 22,769 22,769 22,769 22,769 22,769 -4,857 -17.6% 6,445 39.5% -10,757 -32.1%
4Q 29,829 21,403 21,528 21,414 21,383 20,568 -3,431 to -3,286 -13.8% to -13.2% 4,478 to 4,623 26.5% to 27.3% -8,446 to -8,301 -28.3% to -27.8%
Total 121,535 79,344 79,469 79,355 79,324 78,509 -21,211 to -21,066 -21.1% to -21.0% 24,497 to 24,642 44.7% to 44.9% -42,211 to -42,066 -34.7% to -34.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 51


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Africa Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Africa (Domestic)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 4,886 5,128 4,935 49 1.0% -193 -3.8% 5,421 2,748 -2,138 -43.7% -2,187 -44.3% -2,673 -49.3%
February 4,374 4,691 4,642 268 6.1% -49 -1.0% 4,891 2,403 -1,971 -45.1% -2,238 -48.2% -2,488 -50.9%
March 4,776 4,974 3,429 -1,347 -28.2% -1,545 -31.1% 5,116 3,182 -1,594 -33.4% -247 -7.2% -1,934 -37.8%
-20%
April 4,550 4,635 158 -4,391 -96.5% -4,477 -96.6% 4,660 3,327 -1,223 -26.9% 3,168 2002.1% -1,333 -28.6%
May 4,412 4,575 211 -4,202 -95.2% -4,364 -95.4% 4,642 3,515 -897 -20.3% 3,304 1568.9% -1,127 -24.3%
June 4,475 4,640 451 -4,023 -89.9% -4,189 -90.3% 4,746 3,434 -1,041 -23.3% 2,983 660.7% -1,312 -27.6%
July 4,779 4,883 1,116 -3,663 -76.7% -3,768 -77.2% 5,053 3,107 -1,671 -35.0% 1,992 178.6% -1,946 -38.5% -40%
August 4,845 4,853 1,544 -3,301 -68.1% -3,309 -68.2% 4,925 3,489 -1,357 -28.0% 1,944 125.9% -1,436 -29.2%
September 4,809 4,891 1,651 -3,158 -65.7% -3,239 -66.2% 5,053 3,307 -1,502 -31.2% 1,655 100.3% -1,747 -34.6%
October 5,026 5,173 2,356 -2,670 -53.1% -2,817 -54.5% 5,362 4,081 -945 -18.8% 1,725 73.2% -1,281 -23.9% Actual
-60%
November 4,963 5,189 2,601 -2,362 -47.6% -2,588 -49.9% 5,465 3,908 -1,055 -21.3% 1,307 50.3% -1,556 -28.5% Scenario 1
December 5,212 5,564 3,472 -1,739 -33.4% -2,092 -37.6% 5,983 4,380 -832 -16.0% 907 26.1% -1,603 -26.8%
Scenario 1a
1Q 14,036 14,793 13,006 -1,030 -7.3% -1,788 -12.1% 15,428 8,334 -5,703 -40.6% -4,672 -35.9% -7,095 -46.0%
2Q 13,437 13,850 820 -12,616 -93.9% -13,030 -94.1% 14,048 10,276 -3,161 -23.5% 9,455 1152.7% -3,772 -26.9% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 14,433 14,627 4,311 -10,122 -70.1% -10,316 -70.5% 15,031 9,902 -4,530 -31.4% 5,592 129.7% -5,129 -34.1% Scenario 2a
4Q 15,201 15,927 8,430 -6,772 -44.5% -7,497 -47.1% 16,809 12,369 -2,832 -18.6% 3,940 46.7% -4,440 -26.4% Reference
Total 57,107 59,197 26,567 -30,541 -53.5% -32,631 -55.1% 61,317 40,881 -16,226 -28.4% 14,314 53.9% -20,436 -33.3%
-100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 22
May 21
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21
Mar 20

Mar 22
Nov 21
Jan 20

Nov 20
Jan 21

Jan 22

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Africa Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 5,731 3,440 3,440 3,440 3,440 3,440 -1,446 -29.6% 692 25.2% -2,290 -40.0%
February 5,137 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 -1,140 -26.1% 831 34.6% -1,903 -37.0%
March 5,283 3,551 3,551 3,551 3,551 3,551 -1,226 -25.7% 369 11.6% -1,732 -32.8%
April 4,704 3,594 3,594 3,594 3,594 3,594 -956 -21.0% 267 8.0% -1,110 -23.6%
May 4,737 3,448 3,448 3,448 3,448 3,448 -964 -21.8% -67 -1.9% -1,289 -27.2%
June 4,875 3,537 3,537 3,537 3,537 3,537 -938 -21.0% 103 3.0% -1,338 -27.4%
July 5,224 3,863 3,863 3,863 3,863 3,863 -915 -19.2% 756 24.3% -1,360 -26.0%
August 4,992 3,948 3,948 3,948 3,948 3,948 -897 -18.5% 460 13.2% -1,044 -20.9%
September 5,212 3,777 3,777 3,777 3,777 3,777 -1,033 -21.5% 470 14.2% -1,435 -27.5%
October 5,557 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 3,969 -1,058 -21.0% -112 -2.7% -1,588 -28.6%
November 5,754 3,933 3,933 3,933 3,933 3,933 -1,030 -20.8% 24 0.6% -1,822 -31.7%
December 6,433 4,175 4,157 4,157 4,144 3,300 -1,067 to -1,037 -20.5% to -19.9% -235 to -204 -5.4% to -4.7% -2,288 to -2,257 -35.6% to -35.1%
1Q 16,150 10,225 10,225 10,225 10,225 10,225 -3,811 -27.2% 1,892 22.7% -5,925 -36.7%
2Q 14,316 10,579 10,579 10,579 10,579 10,579 -2,858 -21.3% 303 2.9% -3,738 -26.1%
3Q 15,428 11,588 11,588 11,588 11,588 11,588 -2,845 -19.7% 1,686 17.0% -3,839 -24.9%
4Q 17,744 12,077 12,059 12,058 12,046 11,201 -3,155 to -3,124 -20.8% to -20.6% -323 to -292 -2.6% to -2.4% -5,698 to -5,667 -32.1% to -31.9%
Total 63,638 44,469 44,451 44,451 44,439 43,594 -12,669 to -12,638 -22.2% to -22.1% 3,558 to 3,588 8.7% to 8.8% -19,199 to -19,169 -30.2% to -30.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 52


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Africa International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Africa (Total)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 13,070 13,996 12,942 -128 -1.0% -1,053 -7.5% 14,511 6,618 -6,452 -49.4% -6,325 -48.9% -7,893 -54.4%
February 11,589 12,846 11,909 320 2.8% -937 -7.3% 13,305 5,509 -6,080 -52.5% -6,400 -53.7% -7,796 -58.6%
March 12,904 13,782 8,138 -4,766 -36.9% -5,644 -41.0% 14,033 6,564 -6,340 -49.1% -1,575 -19.3% -7,470 -53.2%
-20%
April 12,611 13,391 530 -12,081 -95.8% -12,861 -96.0% 13,920 6,795 -5,816 -46.1% 6,265 1182.8% -7,125 -51.2%
May 12,409 13,308 678 -11,731 -94.5% -12,630 -94.9% 13,942 7,044 -5,365 -43.2% 6,365 938.4% -6,898 -49.5%
June 12,984 13,947 1,139 -11,846 -91.2% -12,808 -91.8% 14,726 7,677 -5,307 -40.9% 6,539 574.3% -7,049 -47.9%
July 14,158 14,868 2,751 -11,407 -80.6% -12,117 -81.5% 15,751 8,520 -5,638 -39.8% 5,768 209.7% -7,231 -45.9% -40%
August 14,504 15,040 3,764 -10,740 -74.0% -11,276 -75.0% 15,811 9,085 -5,418 -37.4% 5,321 141.4% -6,726 -42.5%
September 13,397 14,074 3,965 -9,432 -70.4% -10,109 -71.8% 14,819 8,621 -4,776 -35.6% 4,656 117.4% -6,198 -41.8%
October 13,336 13,988 5,263 -8,073 -60.5% -8,725 -62.4% 14,646 9,785 -3,551 -26.6% 4,522 85.9% -4,861 -33.2% Actual
-60%
November 12,892 13,689 5,569 -7,323 -56.8% -8,120 -59.3% 14,394 9,698 -3,194 -24.8% 4,129 74.1% -4,696 -32.6%
Scenario 1
December 13,787 14,854 7,064 -6,723 -48.8% -7,790 -52.4% 15,852 9,791 -3,996 -29.0% 2,728 38.6% -6,061 -38.2%
1Q 37,563 40,623 32,990 -4,573 -12.2% -7,633 -18.8% 41,850 18,691 -18,872 -50.2% -14,299 -43.3% -23,159 -55.3% Scenario 1a
2Q 38,004 40,646 2,347 -35,657 -93.8% -38,299 -94.2% 42,588 21,516 -16,488 -43.4% 19,169 816.9% -21,072 -49.5% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 42,059 43,983 10,481 -31,578 -75.1% -33,502 -76.2% 46,381 26,226 -15,832 -37.6% 15,746 150.2% -20,155 -43.5% Scenario 2a
4Q 40,016 42,531 17,896 -22,120 -55.3% -24,635 -57.9% 44,892 29,274 -10,742 -26.8% 11,378 63.6% -15,617 -34.8% Reference
Total 157,642 167,783 63,714 -93,928 -59.6% -104,069 -62.0% 175,711 95,707 -61,935 -39.3% 31,994 50.2% -80,003 -45.5% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20

Mar 21
Mar 20

Mar 22
Jan 20

Jan 22
Nov 20
Jan 21

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Africa International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 15,189 8,125 8,125 8,125 8,125 8,125 -4,945 -37.8% 1,507 22.8% -7,064 -46.5%
February 14,013 8,030 8,030 8,030 8,030 8,030 -3,559 -30.7% 2,521 45.8% -5,983 -42.7%
March 14,477 9,524 9,524 9,524 9,524 9,524 -3,380 -26.2% 2,960 45.1% -4,953 -34.2%
April 14,573 9,730 9,730 9,730 9,730 9,730 -2,881 -22.8% 2,935 43.2% -4,843 -33.2%
May 14,729 10,122 10,122 10,122 10,122 10,122 -2,287 -18.4% 3,078 43.7% -4,607 -31.3%
June 15,665 10,444 10,444 10,444 10,444 10,444 -2,540 -19.6% 2,766 36.0% -5,221 -33.3%
July 16,698 11,883 11,883 11,883 11,883 11,883 -2,275 -16.1% 3,363 39.5% -4,815 -28.8%
August 16,626 11,631 11,631 11,631 11,631 11,631 -2,873 -19.8% 2,545 28.0% -4,995 -30.0%
September 15,630 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 -2,553 -19.1% 2,223 25.8% -4,786 -30.6%
October 15,375 11,168 11,168 11,168 11,168 11,168 -2,168 -16.3% 1,383 14.1% -4,207 -27.4%
November 15,203 10,758 10,758 10,758 10,758 10,758 -2,135 -16.6% 1,060 10.9% -4,446 -29.2%
December 16,995 11,554 11,661 11,546 11,503 9,843 -2,284 to -2,127 -16.6% to -15.4% 1,712 to 1,869 17.5% to 19.1% -5,492 to -5,334 -32.3% to -31.4%
1Q 43,679 25,680 25,680 25,680 25,680 25,680 -11,884 -31.6% 6,989 37.4% -18,000 -41.2%
2Q 44,967 30,296 30,296 30,296 30,296 30,296 -7,708 -20.3% 8,780 40.8% -14,671 -32.6%
3Q 48,954 34,358 34,358 34,358 34,358 34,358 -7,701 -18.3% 8,131 31.0% -14,596 -29.8%
4Q 47,573 33,480 33,587 33,472 33,429 31,769 -6,587 to -6,429 -16.5% to -16.1% 4,155 to 4,312 14.2% to 14.7% -14,144 to -13,986 -29.7% to -29.4%
Total 185,173 123,813 123,920 123,806 123,763 122,103 -33,879 to -33,722 -21.5% to -21.4% 28,055 to 28,213 29.3% to 29.5% -61,411 to -61,253 -33.2% to -33.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 53


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Africa International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Africa (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 5,881 6,388 6,005 124 2.1% -384 -6.0% 6,569 1,838 -4,043 -68.7% -4,167 -69.4% -4,731 -72.0%
February 5,157 5,842 5,141 -17 -0.3% -701 -12.0% 6,046 1,377 -3,780 -73.3% -3,763 -73.2% -4,669 -77.2%
March 5,939 6,443 2,910 -3,029 -51.0% -3,533 -54.8% 6,541 1,531 -4,408 -74.2% -1,379 -47.4% -5,010 -76.6%
April 6,101 6,656 74 -6,027 -98.8% -6,583 -98.9% 7,085 1,462 -4,639 -76.0% 1,388 1883.7% -5,623 -79.4% -20%
May 5,643 6,168 103 -5,540 -98.2% -6,065 -98.3% 6,582 1,624 -4,019 -71.2% 1,521 1478.9% -4,958 -75.3%
June 6,321 6,953 201 -6,120 -96.8% -6,752 -97.1% 7,521 2,264 -4,058 -64.2% 2,062 1025.3% -5,257 -69.9%
July 7,167 7,657 670 -6,497 -90.7% -6,987 -91.2% 8,247 3,278 -3,890 -54.3% 2,608 389.2% -4,970 -60.3% -40%
August 7,559 8,002 978 -6,582 -87.1% -7,024 -87.8% 8,597 3,468 -4,091 -54.1% 2,490 254.6% -5,128 -59.7%
September 6,360 6,825 932 -5,428 -85.4% -5,894 -86.4% 7,296 2,957 -3,402 -53.5% 2,026 217.5% -4,338 -59.5%
October 6,012 6,386 1,296 -4,716 -78.4% -5,090 -79.7% 6,751 3,297 -2,715 -45.2% 2,001 154.4% -3,454 -51.2%
November 5,742 6,163 1,285 -4,457 -77.6% -4,878 -79.2% 6,494 3,598 -2,144 -37.3% 2,313 180.0% -2,896 -44.6% -60% Actual
December 6,351 6,894 1,809 -4,542 -71.5% -5,085 -73.8% 7,348 3,479 -2,872 -45.2% 1,670 92.3% -3,869 -52.7% Scenario 1
1Q 16,977 18,673 14,055 -2,922 -17.2% -4,617 -24.7% 19,156 4,746 -12,231 -72.0% -9,309 -66.2% -14,410 -75.2%
Scenario 1a
2Q 18,065 19,777 378 -17,687 -97.9% -19,399 -98.1% 21,188 5,349 -12,715 -70.4% 4,971 1316.3% -15,839 -74.8% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 21,086 22,485 2,580 -18,507 -87.8% -19,905 -88.5% 24,139 9,703 -11,383 -54.0% 7,123 276.1% -14,436 -59.8%
4Q 18,105 19,442 4,390 -13,715 -75.8% -15,053 -77.4% 20,593 10,374 -7,731 -42.7% 5,984 136.3% -10,219 -49.6%
Scenario 2a
Total 74,233 80,377 21,402 -52,831 -71.2% -58,975 -73.4% 85,077 30,172 -44,061 -59.4% 8,770 41.0% -54,905 -64.5% Reference
-100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Africa International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 6,837 2,787 2,787 2,787 2,787 2,787 -3,094 -52.6% 949 51.6% -4,050 -59.2%
February 6,379 3,086 3,086 3,086 3,086 3,086 -2,072 -40.2% 1,708 124.0% -3,294 -51.6%
March 6,740 4,011 4,011 4,011 4,011 4,011 -1,928 -32.5% 2,480 162.0% -2,729 -40.5%
April 7,572 4,347 4,347 4,347 4,347 4,347 -1,754 -28.8% 2,885 197.4% -3,225 -42.6%
May 7,064 4,830 4,830 4,830 4,830 4,830 -813 -14.4% 3,206 197.4% -2,234 -31.6%
June 8,167 5,334 5,334 5,334 5,334 5,334 -987 -15.6% 3,071 135.7% -2,833 -34.7%
July 8,858 6,293 6,293 6,293 6,293 6,293 -874 -12.2% 3,016 92.0% -2,565 -29.0%
August 9,199 5,983 5,983 5,983 5,983 5,983 -1,576 -20.9% 2,515 72.5% -3,216 -35.0%
September 7,793 5,404 5,404 5,404 5,404 5,404 -956 -15.0% 2,446 82.7% -2,389 -30.7%
October 7,139 5,435 5,435 5,435 5,435 5,435 -577 -9.6% 2,138 64.8% -1,704 -23.9%
November 6,870 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 -542 -9.4% 1,602 44.5% -1,670 -24.3%
December 7,866 5,667 5,791 5,676 5,652 5,147 -698 to -560 -11.0% to -8.8% 2,174 to 2,312 62.5% to 66.5% -2,214 to -2,075 -28.1% to -26.4%
1Q 19,956 9,883 9,883 9,883 9,883 9,883 -7,094 -41.8% 5,137 108.2% -10,073 -50.5%
2Q 22,803 14,511 14,511 14,511 14,511 14,511 -3,554 -19.7% 9,162 171.3% -8,292 -36.4%
3Q 25,850 17,680 17,680 17,680 17,680 17,680 -3,406 -16.2% 7,977 82.2% -8,170 -31.6%
4Q 21,875 16,302 16,426 16,311 16,287 15,782 -1,817 to -1,679 -10.0% to -9.3% 5,914 to 6,052 57.0% to 58.3% -5,588 to -5,450 -25.5% to -24.9%
Total 90,484 58,377 58,500 58,386 58,362 57,856 -15,871 to -15,732 -21.4% to -21.2% 28,190 to 28,328 93.4% to 93.9% -32,123 to -31,984 -35.5% to -35.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 54


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Africa Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Africa (Domestic)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 3,414 3,587 3,410 -4 -0.1% -177 -4.9% 3,795 1,548 -1,867 -54.7% -1,862 -54.6% -2,247 -59.2% 0%
February 3,147 3,378 3,161 15 0.5% -216 -6.4% 3,525 1,296 -1,851 -58.8% -1,866 -59.0% -2,229 -63.2%
March 3,504 3,653 2,060 -1,445 -41.2% -1,593 -43.6% 3,760 1,914 -1,590 -45.4% -145 -7.1% -1,846 -49.1%
April 3,408 3,475 32 -3,375 -99.1% -3,443 -99.1% 3,496 1,827 -1,581 -46.4% 1,794 5553.1% -1,670 -47.8% -20%
May 3,026 3,140 31 -2,995 -99.0% -3,109 -99.0% 3,189 2,071 -955 -31.6% 2,040 6674.4% -1,118 -35.1%
June 3,193 3,315 154 -3,039 -95.2% -3,160 -95.4% 3,393 2,210 -984 -30.8% 2,056 1333.8% -1,183 -34.9%
July 3,514 3,595 445 -3,069 -87.3% -3,150 -87.6% 3,723 1,828 -1,687 -48.0% 1,383 310.6% -1,895 -50.9% -40%
August 3,627 3,636 770 -2,857 -78.8% -2,866 -78.8% 3,693 2,329 -1,298 -35.8% 1,559 202.6% -1,365 -36.9%
September 3,475 3,537 792 -2,683 -77.2% -2,745 -77.6% 3,658 2,015 -1,460 -42.0% 1,223 154.4% -1,643 -44.9%
October 3,523 3,629 1,256 -2,267 -64.4% -2,373 -65.4% 3,765 2,429 -1,094 -31.1% 1,173 93.4% -1,336 -35.5%
-60% Actual
November 3,496 3,659 1,336 -2,160 -61.8% -2,323 -63.5% 3,856 2,516 -980 -28.0% 1,180 88.3% -1,340 -34.8%
December 3,765 4,023 2,022 -1,743 -46.3% -2,002 -49.7% 4,330 2,997 -769 -20.4% 975 48.2% -1,333 -30.8% Scenario 1
1Q 10,065 10,618 8,631 -1,434 -14.3% -1,987 -18.7% 11,080 4,758 -5,308 -52.7% -3,874 -44.9% -6,323 -57.1% Scenario 1a
2Q 9,627 9,930 217 -9,410 -97.7% -9,713 -97.8% 10,079 6,107 -3,520 -36.6% 5,890 2714.3% -3,972 -39.4% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 10,617 10,768 2,007 -8,610 -81.1% -8,761 -81.4% 11,074 6,171 -4,445 -41.9% 4,165 207.5% -4,903 -44.3% Scenario 2a
4Q 10,785 11,312 4,614 -6,171 -57.2% -6,698 -59.2% 11,951 7,941 -2,843 -26.4% 3,328 72.1% -4,010 -33.6% Reference
Total 41,094 42,627 15,468 -25,625 -62.4% -27,159 -63.7% 44,184 24,977 -16,116 -39.2% 9,509 61.5% -19,207 -43.5% -100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Africa Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 4,015 2,282 2,282 2,282 2,282 2,282 -1,133 -33.2% 734 47.4% -1,733 -43.2%
February 3,705 2,188 2,188 2,188 2,188 2,188 -959 -30.5% 892 68.9% -1,517 -40.9%
March 3,886 2,398 2,398 2,398 2,398 2,398 -1,107 -31.6% 483 25.3% -1,488 -38.3%
April 3,532 2,487 2,487 2,487 2,487 2,487 -921 -27.0% 660 36.2% -1,045 -29.6%
May 3,257 2,478 2,478 2,478 2,478 2,478 -548 -18.1% 407 19.7% -780 -23.9%
June 3,488 2,626 2,626 2,626 2,626 2,626 -568 -17.8% 416 18.8% -862 -24.7%
July 3,852 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 2,923 -591 -16.8% 1,096 59.9% -928 -24.1%
August 3,746 2,959 2,959 2,959 2,959 2,959 -668 -18.4% 631 27.1% -787 -21.0%
September 3,776 2,848 2,848 2,848 2,848 2,848 -627 -18.1% 833 41.3% -928 -24.6%
October 3,905 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 -562 -16.0% 532 21.9% -944 -24.2%
November 4,064 2,963 2,963 2,963 2,963 2,963 -534 -15.3% 447 17.8% -1,101 -27.1%
December 4,659 3,192 3,199 3,178 3,169 2,588 -597 to -566 -15.8% to -15.0% 172 to 202 5.7% to 6.8% -1,491 to -1,460 -32.0% to -31.3%
1Q 11,606 6,867 6,867 6,867 6,867 6,867 -3,198 -31.8% 2,110 44.3% -4,738 -40.8%
2Q 10,278 7,590 7,590 7,590 7,590 7,590 -2,036 -21.2% 1,483 24.3% -2,687 -26.1%
3Q 11,374 8,730 8,730 8,730 8,730 8,730 -1,886 -17.8% 2,559 41.5% -2,644 -23.2%
4Q 12,628 9,116 9,123 9,102 9,092 8,512 -1,692 to -1,662 -15.7% to -15.4% 1,151 to 1,182 14.5% to 14.9% -3,536 to -3,505 -28.0% to -27.8%
Total 45,886 32,304 32,311 32,290 32,281 31,700 -8,813 to -8,782 -21.4% to -21.4% 7,304 to 7,334 29.2% to 29.4% -13,605 to -13,575 -29.7% to -29.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 55


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Africa International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Africa (Total)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 9,295 9,975 9,415 120 1.3% -561 -5.6% 10,364 3,386 -5,909 -63.6% -6,029 -64.0% -6,978 -67.3% 0%
February 8,304 9,219 8,302 -2 0.0% -917 -9.9% 9,571 2,673 -5,631 -67.8% -5,629 -67.8% -6,899 -72.1%
March 9,443 10,096 4,970 -4,474 -47.4% -5,126 -50.8% 10,301 3,445 -5,998 -63.5% -1,524 -30.7% -6,856 -66.6%
April 9,508 10,132 106 -9,402 -98.9% -10,026 -99.0% 10,582 3,288 -6,220 -65.4% 3,182 3002.2% -7,293 -68.9% -20%
May 8,668 9,308 133 -8,535 -98.5% -9,174 -98.6% 9,771 3,694 -4,974 -57.4% 3,561 2669.2% -6,077 -62.2%
June 9,515 10,267 355 -9,159 -96.3% -9,912 -96.5% 10,914 4,473 -5,041 -53.0% 4,118 1159.1% -6,441 -59.0%
July 10,682 11,252 1,115 -9,567 -89.6% -10,137 -90.1% 11,970 5,105 -5,576 -52.2% 3,990 357.8% -6,865 -57.3%
-40%
August 11,186 11,638 1,747 -9,439 -84.4% -9,891 -85.0% 12,290 5,797 -5,390 -48.2% 4,049 231.7% -6,493 -52.8%
September 9,835 10,363 1,724 -8,111 -82.5% -8,639 -83.4% 10,954 4,972 -4,863 -49.4% 3,249 188.5% -5,981 -54.6%
October 9,535 10,015 2,552 -6,983 -73.2% -7,463 -74.5% 10,516 5,726 -3,809 -39.9% 3,174 124.4% -4,790 -45.6%
-60% Actual
November 9,238 9,822 2,621 -6,618 -71.6% -7,201 -73.3% 10,350 6,114 -3,125 -33.8% 3,493 133.3% -4,236 -40.9%
December 10,116 10,917 3,831 -6,285 -62.1% -7,087 -64.9% 11,678 6,475 -3,641 -36.0% 2,645 69.0% -5,203 -44.6% Scenario 1
1Q 27,043 29,290 22,687 -4,356 -16.1% -6,604 -22.5% 30,236 9,504 -17,539 -64.9% -13,183 -58.1% -20,732 -68.6% Scenario 1a
2Q 27,691 29,707 595 -27,097 -97.9% -29,112 -98.0% 31,267 11,456 -16,235 -58.6% 10,861 1826.4% -19,811 -63.4% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 31,703 33,253 4,586 -27,117 -85.5% -28,667 -86.2% 35,214 15,874 -15,829 -49.9% 11,288 246.1% -19,340 -54.9% Scenario 2a
4Q 28,889 30,754 9,003 -19,886 -68.8% -21,751 -70.7% 32,544 18,315 -10,574 -36.6% 9,312 103.4% -14,229 -43.7%
Reference
Total 115,326 123,004 36,871 -78,456 -68.0% -86,134 -70.0% 129,261 55,149 -60,177 -52.2% 18,279 49.6% -74,112 -57.3%
-100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Africa International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 10,852 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 5,069 -4,226 -45.5% 1,683 49.7% -5,783 -53.3%
February 10,084 5,274 5,274 5,274 5,274 5,274 -3,031 -36.5% 2,601 97.3% -4,811 -47.7%
March 10,626 6,409 6,409 6,409 6,409 6,409 -3,035 -32.1% 2,963 86.0% -4,217 -39.7%
April 11,104 6,834 6,834 6,834 6,834 6,834 -2,675 -28.1% 3,545 107.8% -4,270 -38.5%
May 10,321 7,307 7,307 7,307 7,307 7,307 -1,361 -15.7% 3,613 97.8% -3,014 -29.2%
June 11,656 7,960 7,960 7,960 7,960 7,960 -1,554 -16.3% 3,487 78.0% -3,695 -31.7%
July 12,710 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 -1,465 -13.7% 4,112 80.5% -3,493 -27.5%
August 12,945 8,942 8,942 8,942 8,942 8,942 -2,244 -20.1% 3,146 54.3% -4,003 -30.9%
September 11,569 8,251 8,251 8,251 8,251 8,251 -1,583 -16.1% 3,279 65.9% -3,318 -28.7%
October 11,044 8,396 8,396 8,396 8,396 8,396 -1,139 -11.9% 2,670 46.6% -2,648 -24.0%
November 10,934 8,163 8,163 8,163 8,163 8,163 -1,076 -11.6% 2,049 33.5% -2,771 -25.3%
December 12,525 8,859 8,990 8,854 8,821 7,735 -1,295 to -1,126 -12.8% to -11.1% 2,345 to 2,515 36.2% to 38.8% -3,705 to -3,535 -29.6% to -28.2%
1Q 31,562 16,751 16,751 16,751 16,751 16,751 -10,292 -38.1% 7,247 76.3% -14,811 -46.9%
2Q 33,080 22,101 22,101 22,101 22,101 22,101 -5,590 -20.2% 10,645 92.9% -10,979 -33.2%
3Q 37,224 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 -5,292 -16.7% 10,536 66.4% -10,814 -29.0%
4Q 34,504 25,418 25,549 25,413 25,380 24,294 -3,510 to -3,340 -12.1% to -11.6% 7,065 to 7,234 38.6% to 39.5% -9,124 to -8,955 -26.4% to -26.0%
Total 136,370 90,681 90,812 90,675 90,642 89,556 -24,684 to -24,515 -21.4% to -21.3% 35,493 to 35,662 64.4% to 64.7% -45,728 to -45,559 -33.5% to -33.4%

Source: ICAO estimates 56


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Africa International
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Africa (International)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
0.0
January 1,292 1,394 1,328 37 2.8% -65 -4.7% 1,422 403 -889 -68.8% -925 -69.7% -1,019 -71.6%
February 1,127 1,269 1,122 -4 -0.4% -147 -11.6% 1,299 296 -830 -73.7% -826 -73.6% -1,003 -77.2%
March 1,290 1,392 651 -638 -49.5% -741 -53.2% 1,402 329 -961 -74.5% -323 -49.5% -1,073 -76.5%
-0.3
April 1,305 1,408 19 -1,285 -98.5% -1,389 -98.6% 1,488 316 -989 -75.8% 297 1538.7% -1,171 -78.7%
May 1,217 1,323 25 -1,192 -97.9% -1,297 -98.1% 1,400 352 -865 -71.0% 327 1289.2% -1,048 -74.8%
June 1,358 1,471 49 -1,309 -96.4% -1,422 -96.7% 1,576 481 -877 -64.6% 432 882.9% -1,095 -69.5% -0.5

Billions (USD)
July 1,541 1,627 146 -1,395 -90.5% -1,481 -91.0% 1,736 684 -857 -55.6% 538 368.4% -1,052 -60.6%
August 1,623 1,699 213 -1,410 -86.9% -1,486 -87.4% 1,810 726 -897 -55.3% 513 240.3% -1,084 -59.9%
September 1,361 1,449 212 -1,149 -84.4% -1,237 -85.4% 1,541 614 -747 -54.9% 402 189.5% -926 -60.1% -0.8
October 1,298 1,365 290 -1,008 -77.6% -1,075 -78.7% 1,438 688 -610 -47.0% 397 136.9% -750 -52.2%
November 1,260 1,336 282 -977 -77.6% -1,053 -78.9% 1,396 746 -514 -40.8% 463 164.2% -651 -46.6% Actual
December 1,399 1,505 396 -1,004 -71.7% -1,110 -73.7% 1,597 757 -642 -45.9% 362 91.5% -839 -52.6% -1.0 Scenario 1
1Q 3,708 4,055 3,102 -606 -16.3% -953 -23.5% 4,122 1,028 -2,680 -72.3% -2,074 -66.9% -3,094 -75.1% Scenario 1a
2Q 3,880 4,202 94 -3,786 -97.6% -4,109 -97.8% 4,464 1,150 -2,730 -70.4% 1,056 1128.2% -3,314 -74.2% Scenario 2
3Q 4,525 4,775 572 -3,954 -87.4% -4,203 -88.0% 5,087 2,025 -2,500 -55.3% 1,453 254.2% -3,062 -60.2% -1.3
Scenario 2a
4Q 3,957 4,206 968 -2,989 -75.5% -3,238 -77.0% 4,431 2,191 -1,766 -44.6% 1,223 126.3% -2,240 -50.6%
Reference
Total 16,070 17,239 4,736 -11,334 -70.5% -12,503 -72.5% 18,104 6,393 -9,677 -60.2% 1,658 35.0% -11,711 -64.7%
-1.5

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20
Mar 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Africa International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 1,470 649 649 649 649 649 -643 -49.8% 246 61.0% -821 -55.8%
February 1,358 684 684 684 684 684 -442 -39.3% 388 131.0% -674 -49.6%
March 1,434 871 871 871 871 871 -419 -32.5% 542 164.9% -563 -39.3%
April 1,579 939 939 939 939 939 -365 -28.0% 623 197.1% -639 -40.5%
May 1,492 1,036 1,036 1,036 1,036 1,036 -182 -14.9% 683 193.9% -456 -30.6%
June 1,694 1,158 1,158 1,158 1,158 1,158 -200 -14.7% 677 140.6% -537 -31.7%
July 1,848 1,362 1,362 1,362 1,362 1,362 -179 -11.6% 678 99.0% -486 -26.3%
August 1,923 1,314 1,314 1,314 1,314 1,314 -309 -19.0% 588 81.0% -609 -31.6%
September 1,638 1,169 1,169 1,169 1,169 1,169 -192 -14.1% 555 90.3% -469 -28.6%
October 1,514 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 -137 -10.6% 473 68.8% -354 -23.3%
November 1,466 1,122 1,122 1,122 1,122 1,122 -138 -10.9% 376 50.5% -344 -23.5%
December 1,702 1,222 1,249 1,224 1,219 1,110 -180 to -150 -12.9% to -10.7% 462 to 492 61.0% to 64.9% -483 to -453 -28.4% to -26.6%
1Q 4,262 2,204 2,204 2,204 2,204 2,204 -1,504 -40.6% 1,176 114.4% -2,058 -48.3%
2Q 4,765 3,133 3,133 3,133 3,133 3,133 -747 -19.3% 1,983 172.5% -1,632 -34.3%
3Q 5,409 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 -680 -15.0% 1,821 89.9% -1,564 -28.9%
4Q 4,683 3,505 3,532 3,507 3,502 3,393 -455 to -425 -11.5% to -10.7% 1,311 to 1,341 59.8% to 61.2% -1,181 to -1,151 -25.2% to -24.6%
Total 19,119 12,687 12,714 12,689 12,684 12,575 -3,386 to -3,356 -21.1% to -20.9% 6,291 to 6,321 98.4% to 98.9% -6,435 to -6,405 -33.7% to -33.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 57


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Africa Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Africa (Domestic)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0.0
January 310 325 309 0 -0.1% -16 -4.9% 344 140 -169 -54.7% -169 -54.6% -204 -59.2%
February 285 306 287 1 0.5% -20 -6.4% 320 117 -168 -58.8% -169 -59.0% -202 -63.2%
March 318 331 187 -131 -41.2% -144 -43.6% 341 174 -144 -45.4% -13 -7.1% -167 -49.1% -0.1
April 309 315 3 -306 -99.1% -312 -99.1% 317 166 -143 -46.4% 163 5553.1% -151 -47.8%
May 274 285 3 -271 -99.0% -282 -99.0% 289 188 -87 -31.6% 185 6674.4% -101 -35.1% -0.1
June 289 300 14 -275 -95.2% -286 -95.4% 308 200 -89 -30.8% 186 1333.8% -107 -34.9%

Billions (USD)
July 319 326 40 -278 -87.3% -285 -87.6% 337 166 -153 -48.0% 125 310.6% -172 -50.9%
August 329 330 70 -259 -78.8% -260 -78.8% 335 211 -118 -35.8% 141 202.6% -124 -36.9% -0.2
September 315 321 72 -243 -77.2% -249 -77.6% 332 183 -132 -42.0% 111 154.4% -149 -44.9%
October 319 329 114 -206 -64.4% -215 -65.4% 341 220 -99 -31.1% 106 93.4% -121 -35.5% -0.2
November 317 332 121 -196 -61.8% -211 -63.5% 350 228 -89 -28.0% 107 88.3% -122 -34.8% Actual
December 341 365 183 -158 -46.3% -181 -49.7% 392 272 -70 -20.4% 88 48.2% -121 -30.8% Scenario 1
1Q 912 962 782 -130 -14.3% -180 -18.7% 1,004 431 -481 -52.7% -351 -44.9% -573 -57.1%
-0.3
Scenario 1a
2Q 873 900 20 -853 -97.7% -880 -97.8% 914 554 -319 -36.6% 534 2714.3% -360 -39.4% Scenario 2
3Q 962 976 182 -780 -81.1% -794 -81.4% 1,004 559 -403 -41.9% 378 207.5% -444 -44.3% -0.3 Scenario 2a
4Q 978 1,025 418 -559 -57.2% -607 -59.2% 1,083 720 -258 -26.4% 302 72.1% -363 -33.6%
Reference
Total 3,725 3,864 1,402 -2,323 -62.4% -2,462 -63.7% 4,005 2,264 -1,461 -39.2% 862 61.5% -1,741 -43.5%
-0.4

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20
Mar 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Africa Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 364 207 207 207 207 207 -103 -33.2% 67 47.4% -157 -43.2%
February 336 198 198 198 198 198 -87 -30.5% 81 68.9% -138 -40.9%
March 352 217 217 217 217 217 -100 -31.6% 44 25.3% -135 -38.3%
April 320 225 225 225 225 225 -83 -27.0% 60 36.2% -95 -29.6%
May 295 225 225 225 225 225 -50 -18.1% 37 19.7% -71 -23.9%
June 316 238 238 238 238 238 -51 -17.8% 38 18.8% -78 -24.7%
July 349 265 265 265 265 265 -54 -16.8% 99 59.9% -84 -24.1%
August 340 268 268 268 268 268 -61 -18.4% 57 27.1% -71 -21.0%
September 342 258 258 258 258 258 -57 -18.1% 76 41.3% -84 -24.6%
October 354 268 268 268 268 268 -51 -16.0% 48 21.9% -86 -24.2%
November 368 269 269 269 269 269 -48 -15.3% 41 17.8% -100 -27.1%
December 422 289 290 288 287 235 -54 to -51 -15.8% to -15.0% 16 to 18 5.7% to 6.8% -135 to -132 -32.0% to -31.3%
1Q 1,052 623 623 623 623 623 -290 -31.8% 191 44.3% -430 -40.8%
2Q 932 688 688 688 688 688 -185 -21.2% 134 24.3% -244 -26.1%
3Q 1,031 791 791 791 791 791 -171 -17.8% 232 41.5% -240 -23.2%
4Q 1,145 826 827 825 824 772 -153 to -151 -15.7% to -15.4% 104 to 107 14.5% to 14.9% -321 to -318 -28.0% to -27.8%
Total 4,159 2,928 2,929 2,927 2,926 2,874 -799 to -796 -21.4% to -21.4% 662 to 665 29.2% to 29.4% -1,233 to -1,231 -29.7% to -29.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 58


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Africa International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Africa (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
0.0
January 1,601 1,719 1,638 36 2.3% -81 -4.7% 1,766 543 -1,058 -66.1% -1,094 -66.8% -1,222 -69.2%
February 1,412 1,576 1,409 -3 -0.2% -167 -10.6% 1,618 414 -998 -70.7% -995 -70.6% -1,205 -74.4% -0.2
March 1,607 1,723 838 -769 -47.9% -885 -51.4% 1,742 502 -1,105 -68.8% -336 -40.1% -1,240 -71.2%
April 1,614 1,723 22 -1,591 -98.6% -1,701 -98.7% 1,805 482 -1,132 -70.1% 460 2067.8% -1,323 -73.3% -0.4
May 1,492 1,607 28 -1,464 -98.1% -1,579 -98.2% 1,689 540 -952 -63.8% 512 1819.4% -1,149 -68.0%
June 1,647 1,772 63 -1,584 -96.2% -1,709 -96.4% 1,883 681 -966 -58.6% 618 983.0% -1,202 -63.8% -0.6

Billions (USD)
July 1,860 1,953 186 -1,673 -90.0% -1,766 -90.4% 2,074 850 -1,010 -54.3% 664 355.9% -1,223 -59.0%
August 1,952 2,029 283 -1,669 -85.5% -1,745 -86.0% 2,145 937 -1,015 -52.0% 654 231.0% -1,208 -56.3%
-0.8
September 1,676 1,769 284 -1,392 -83.1% -1,485 -84.0% 1,872 797 -879 -52.5% 513 180.7% -1,075 -57.4%
-1.0
October 1,618 1,694 404 -1,213 -75.0% -1,290 -76.1% 1,779 908 -709 -43.9% 504 124.6% -871 -49.0% Actual
November 1,576 1,667 403 -1,173 -74.4% -1,264 -75.8% 1,746 974 -603 -38.2% 570 141.4% -772 -44.2% -1.2 Scenario 1
December 1,740 1,870 579 -1,162 -66.7% -1,291 -69.0% 1,989 1,029 -711 -40.9% 450 77.8% -960 -48.3% Scenario 1a
1Q 4,621 5,018 3,884 -736 -15.9% -1,133 -22.6% 5,126 1,459 -3,161 -68.4% -2,425 -62.4% -3,667 -71.5% -1.4 Scenario 2
2Q 4,752 5,103 113 -4,639 -97.6% -4,989 -97.8% 5,377 1,703 -3,049 -64.2% 1,590 1403.7% -3,674 -68.3%
Scenario 2a
3Q 5,488 5,751 754 -4,734 -86.3% -4,997 -86.9% 6,091 2,584 -2,903 -52.9% 1,831 242.9% -3,507 -57.6% -1.6
Reference
4Q 4,934 5,231 1,386 -3,548 -71.9% -3,845 -73.5% 5,514 2,911 -2,024 -41.0% 1,524 110.0% -2,604 -47.2%
Total 19,795 21,103 6,138 -13,657 -69.0% -14,965 -70.9% 22,109 8,657 -11,138 -56.3% 2,520 41.1% -13,452 -60.8% -1.8

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20
Jan 20

Nov 20
Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Africa International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 1,834 856 856 856 856 856 -746 -46.6% 312 57.5% -978 -53.3%
February 1,694 882 882 882 882 882 -529 -37.5% 469 113.3% -811 -47.9%
March 1,786 1,088 1,088 1,088 1,088 1,088 -519 -32.3% 586 116.7% -698 -39.1%
April 1,899 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 -449 -27.8% 683 141.8% -734 -38.7%
May 1,787 1,260 1,260 1,260 1,260 1,260 -231 -15.5% 720 133.3% -527 -29.5%
June 2,011 1,396 1,396 1,396 1,396 1,396 -251 -15.3% 714 104.8% -615 -30.6%
July 2,198 1,627 1,627 1,627 1,627 1,627 -233 -12.5% 777 91.4% -571 -26.0%
August 2,262 1,582 1,582 1,582 1,582 1,582 -369 -18.9% 645 68.9% -680 -30.1%
September 1,980 1,427 1,427 1,427 1,427 1,427 -249 -14.8% 630 79.1% -553 -27.9%
October 1,868 1,429 1,429 1,429 1,429 1,429 -188 -11.6% 521 57.4% -439 -23.5%
November 1,834 1,390 1,390 1,390 1,390 1,390 -186 -11.8% 417 42.8% -444 -24.2%
December 2,125 1,512 1,539 1,512 1,506 1,344 -234 to -201 -13.4% to -11.6% 477 to 510 46.4% to 49.6% -618 to -585 -29.1% to -27.6%
1Q 5,314 2,826 2,826 2,826 2,826 2,826 -1,794 -38.8% 1,367 93.7% -2,488 -46.8%
2Q 5,697 3,821 3,821 3,821 3,821 3,821 -932 -19.6% 2,118 124.3% -1,876 -32.9%
3Q 6,440 4,637 4,637 4,637 4,637 4,637 -851 -15.5% 2,053 79.4% -1,803 -28.0%
4Q 5,827 4,331 4,359 4,332 4,326 4,164 -608 to -576 -12.3% to -11.7% 1,415 to 1,448 48.6% to 49.8% -1,501 to -1,468 -25.8% to -25.2%
Total 23,279 15,615 15,643 15,616 15,610 15,448 -4,185 to -4,152 -21.1% to -21.0% 6,953 to 6,985 80.3% to 80.7% -7,668 to -7,636 -32.9% to -32.8%

Source: ICAO estimates 59


Asia/Pacific

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -26.1% -30.1% -24.3% -141,677 -34.7% -42,794 -34.9% -98,882 -34.6% -16,747 -8,505 -8,242
2Q 2020 -68.5% -91.3% -58.6% -316,793 -76.8% -117,426 -96.4% -199,367 -68.6% -38,956 -24,899 -14,057
3Q 2020 -49.3% -88.3% -32.4% -257,337 -58.9% -120,815 -94.6% -136,522 -44.1% -34,664 -25,641 -9,023
4Q 2020 -37.3% -86.6% -15.7% -202,995 -47.7% -117,468 -93.9% -85,527 -28.5% -30,376 -25,124 -5,252
Total 2020 -45.3% -74.2% -32.7% -918,801 -54.6% -398,503 -80.1% -520,298 -43.9% -120,743 -84,169 -36,574
1Q 2021 -43.3% -84.4% -25.0% -225,504 -55.2% -114,192 -93.1% -111,312 -38.9% -32,033 -24,159 -7,874
2Q 2021 -37.4% -84.5% -16.7% -190,923 -46.3% -113,035 -92.8% -77,887 -26.8% -28,401 -23,864 -4,537
3Q 2021 -50.1% -84.3% -35.3% -267,183 -61.1% -116,834 -91.5% -150,349 -48.6% -35,162 -24,694 -10,468
4Q 2021 -45.4% -81.1% -29.8% -240,695 -56.6% -110,180 -88.0% -130,514 -43.5% -33,023 -23,441 -9,582
Total 2021 -44.1% -83.6% -26.8% -924,304 -54.9% -454,242 -91.3% -470,063 -39.6% -128,619 -96,158 -32,462
1Q 2022 -43.9% -73.5% -30.7% -232,533 -56.9% -100,054 -81.6% -132,479 -46.3% -30,757 -20,722 -10,035
2Q 2022 -45.9% -67.0% -36.7% -218,460 -53.0% -84,439 -69.3% -134,020 -46.1% -28,385 -17,294 -11,091
3Q 2022 -34.9% -59.6% -24.3% -176,149 -40.3% -76,085 -59.6% -100,064 -32.3% -23,732 -15,612 -8,121
4Q 2022 -43.3% to -42.8% -52.7% to -52.0% -39.2% to -38.7% -194,932 to -192,794 -45.8% to -45.3% -65,115 to -64,115 -52.0% to -51.2% -129,817 to -128,597 -43.3% to -42.8% -24,712 to -24,417 -13,837 to -13,621 -10,875 to -10,788
Total 2022 -41.9% to -41.8% -63.1% to -62.9% -32.7% to -32.6% -822,073 to -819,935 -48.8% to -48.7% -325,693 to -324,693 -65.5% to -65.3% -496,380 to -495,160 -41.8% to -41.7% -107,586 to -107,290-67,465 to -67,248 -40,121 to -40,034

60
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Asia/Pacific (International)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 53,265 57,270 53,331 66 0.1% -3,939 -6.9% 60,091 8,389 -44,876 -84.3% -44,942 -84.3% -51,702 -86.0% 0%
February 49,240 52,702 36,070 -13,170 -26.7% -16,632 -31.6% 54,412 7,103 -42,137 -85.6% -28,967 -80.3% -47,309 -86.9%
Actual
March 52,868 55,127 19,269 -33,600 -63.6% -35,858 -65.0% 57,032 8,719 -44,149 -83.5% -10,549 -54.7% -48,312 -84.7%
April 51,419 53,083 4,283 -47,136 -91.7% -48,800 -91.9% 54,682 8,643 -42,776 -83.2% 4,360 101.8% -46,040 -84.2% Scenario 1
-20%
May 52,115 54,386 4,649 -47,466 -91.1% -49,737 -91.5% 56,381 7,953 -44,162 -84.7% 3,304 71.1% -48,428 -85.9% Scenario 1a
June 51,244 53,134 4,462 -46,782 -91.3% -48,671 -91.6% 54,970 7,326 -43,918 -85.7% 2,864 64.2% -47,644 -86.7% Scenario 2
July 54,096 55,984 5,934 -48,162 -89.0% -50,051 -89.4% 58,871 8,120 -45,976 -85.0% 2,186 36.8% -50,750 -86.2%
August 54,492 57,099 6,215 -48,277 -88.6% -50,883 -89.1% 60,431 8,249 -46,243 -84.9% 2,034 32.7% -52,182 -86.3%
-40% Scenario 2a
September 51,502 53,050 6,595 -44,907 -87.2% -46,455 -87.6% 55,872 8,746 -42,756 -83.0% 2,151 32.6% -47,126 -84.3% Reference
October 52,839 55,621 7,034 -45,805 -86.7% -48,587 -87.4% 58,727 9,229 -43,610 -82.5% 2,195 31.2% -49,497 -84.3%
November 51,594 54,738 6,760 -44,833 -86.9% -47,978 -87.6% 58,065 9,713 -41,881 -81.2% 2,952 43.7% -48,352 -83.3% -60%
December 54,954 58,362 7,595 -47,359 -86.2% -50,767 -87.0% 61,803 11,109 -43,845 -79.8% 3,514 46.3% -50,694 -82.0%
1Q 155,373 165,099 108,670 -46,704 -30.1% -56,429 -34.2% 171,535 24,211 -131,162 -84.4% -84,459 -77.7% -147,323 -85.9%
2Q 154,778 160,603 13,394 -141,384 -91.3% -147,209 -91.7% 166,033 23,921 -130,856 -84.5% 10,527 78.6% -142,112 -85.6% -80%
3Q 160,089 166,133 18,744 -141,345 -88.3% -147,389 -88.7% 175,174 25,115 -134,974 -84.3% 6,371 34.0% -150,059 -85.7%
4Q 159,387 168,721 21,390 -137,997 -86.6% -147,331 -87.3% 178,595 30,051 -129,336 -81.1% 8,662 40.5% -148,543 -83.2%
Total 629,628 660,556 162,198 -467,430 -74.2% -498,359 -75.4% 691,337 103,299 -526,329 -83.6% -58,899 -36.3% -588,038 -85.1%
-100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International

May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 63,686 13,989 13,989 13,989 13,989 13,989 -39,276 -73.7% 5,600 66.8% -49,698 -78.0%
February 56,891 12,402 12,402 12,402 12,402 12,402 -36,838 -74.8% 5,299 74.6% -44,488 -78.2%
March 59,370 14,803 14,803 14,803 14,803 14,803 -38,066 -72.0% 6,083 69.8% -44,567 -75.1%
April 56,485 15,388 15,388 15,388 15,388 15,388 -36,031 -70.1% 6,745 78.0% -41,097 -72.8%
May 58,690 17,178 17,178 17,178 17,178 17,178 -34,937 -67.0% 9,225 116.0% -41,512 -70.7%
June 57,029 18,567 18,567 18,567 18,567 18,567 -32,678 -63.8% 11,241 153.4% -38,462 -67.4%
July 61,909 21,253 21,253 21,253 21,253 21,253 -32,843 -60.7% 13,133 161.7% -40,656 -65.7%
August 64,038 22,123 22,123 22,123 22,123 22,123 -32,369 -59.4% 13,874 168.2% -41,915 -65.5%
September 58,757 21,287 21,287 21,287 21,287 21,287 -30,215 -58.7% 12,541 143.4% -37,470 -63.8%
October 62,181 23,266 23,266 23,266 23,266 23,266 -29,573 -56.0% 14,037 152.1% -38,914 -62.6%
November 61,838 24,784 24,784 24,784 24,784 24,784 -26,810 -52.0% 15,071 155.2% -37,054 -59.9%
December 65,758 28,377 27,366 28,511 28,146 30,434 -27,588 to -26,442 -50.2% to -48.1% 16,257 to 17,403 146.3% to 156.7% -38,392 to -37,246 -58.4% to -56.6%
1Q 179,947 41,194 41,194 41,194 41,194 41,194 -114,180 -73.5% 16,983 70.1% -138,753 -77.1%
2Q 172,203 51,132 51,132 51,132 51,132 51,132 -103,646 -67.0% 27,211 113.8% -121,071 -70.3%
3Q 184,704 64,663 64,663 64,663 64,663 64,663 -95,427 -59.6% 39,548 157.5% -120,041 -65.0%
4Q 189,776 76,427 75,416 76,561 76,196 78,483 -83,971 to -82,826 -52.7% to -52.0% 45,365 to 46,510 151.0% to 154.8% -114,360 to -113,214 -60.3% to -59.7%
Total 726,630 233,416 232,405 233,550 233,185 235,472 -397,223 to -396,077 -63.1% to -62.9% 129,106 to 130,251 125.0% to 126.1% -494,225 to -493,080 -68.0% to -67.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 61


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Asia/Pacific Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month Asia/Pacific (Domestic)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 120,939 127,828 120,380 -559 -0.5% -7,448 -5.8% 132,806 86,618 -34,321 -28.4% -33,762 -28.0% -46,189 -34.8%
February 111,832 120,025 73,446 -38,386 -34.3% -46,579 -38.8% 122,937 71,057 -40,775 -36.5% -2,389 -3.3% -51,880 -42.2% 0%
March 117,628 123,036 71,501 -46,127 -39.2% -51,535 -41.9% 124,572 105,089 -12,539 -10.7% 33,587 47.0% -19,484 -15.6%
April 116,324 118,235 36,113 -80,212 -69.0% -82,122 -69.5% 120,767 110,802 -5,522 -4.7% 74,689 206.8% -9,965 -8.3%
May 119,839 122,387 48,028 -71,811 -59.9% -74,360 -60.8% 125,619 98,879 -20,960 -17.5% 50,851 105.9% -26,740 -21.3% -20%
June 118,127 119,977 62,669 -55,458 -46.9% -57,308 -47.8% 122,926 85,272 -32,855 -27.8% 22,603 36.1% -37,654 -30.6%
July 126,199 129,033 79,823 -46,376 -36.7% -49,210 -38.1% 133,866 92,653 -33,546 -26.6% 12,830 16.1% -41,213 -30.8%
August 125,546 128,431 86,254 -39,291 -31.3% -42,177 -32.8% 132,957 66,855 -58,691 -46.7% -19,400 -22.5% -66,102 -49.7% -40%
September 119,707 122,898 84,916 -34,791 -29.1% -37,982 -30.9% 127,100 80,652 -39,054 -32.6% -4,264 -5.0% -46,447 -36.5%
October 123,885 126,974 100,810 -23,076 -18.6% -26,164 -20.6% 132,971 89,645 -34,241 -27.6% -11,165 -11.1% -43,327 -32.6% Actual
November 118,639 121,612 99,560 -19,079 -16.1% -22,052 -18.1% 126,133 75,805 -42,834 -36.1% -23,755 -23.9% -50,328 -39.9%
-60% Scenario 1
December 121,839 125,686 106,651 -15,188 -12.5% -19,035 -15.1% 130,608 90,469 -31,370 -25.7% -16,182 -15.2% -40,138 -30.7%
1Q 350,399 370,889 265,327 -85,072 -24.3% -105,561 -28.5% 380,315 262,763 -87,636 -25.0% -2,564 -1.0% -117,552 -30.9% Scenario 1a
2Q 354,290 360,599 146,809 -207,481 -58.6% -213,790 -59.3% 369,312 294,953 -59,337 -16.7% 148,144 100.9% -74,359 -20.1%
-80% Scenario 2
3Q 371,451 380,362 250,993 -120,458 -32.4% -129,369 -34.0% 393,922 240,160 -131,291 -35.3% -10,833 -4.3% -153,762 -39.0% Scenario 2a
4Q 364,363 374,272 307,021 -57,343 -15.7% -67,252 -18.0% 389,712 255,918 -108,445 -29.8% -51,102 -16.6% -133,793 -34.3%
Reference
Total 1,440,503 1,486,123 970,150 -470,353 -32.7% -515,973 -34.7% 1,533,261 1,053,794 -386,709 -26.8% 83,645 8.6% -479,466 -31.3%
-100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Asia/Pacific Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 138,877 88,897 88,897 88,897 88,897 88,897 -32,042 -26.5% 2,279 2.6% -49,980 -36.0%
February 127,407 82,292 82,292 82,292 82,292 82,292 -29,540 -26.4% 11,235 15.8% -45,115 -35.4%
March 127,258 71,541 71,541 71,541 71,541 71,541 -46,086 -39.2% -33,547 -31.9% -55,716 -43.8%
April 123,429 63,649 63,649 63,649 63,649 63,649 -52,675 -45.3% -47,153 -42.6% -59,780 -48.4%
May 129,020 74,947 74,947 74,947 74,947 74,947 -44,892 -37.5% -23,932 -24.2% -54,073 -41.9%
June 125,920 85,671 85,671 85,671 85,671 85,671 -32,456 -27.5% 398 0.5% -40,250 -32.0%
July 138,709 102,565 102,565 102,565 102,565 102,565 -23,634 -18.7% 9,912 10.7% -36,144 -26.1%
August 137,569 98,927 98,927 98,927 98,927 98,927 -26,618 -21.2% 32,073 48.0% -38,642 -28.1%
September 131,499 79,697 79,697 79,697 79,697 79,697 -40,010 -33.4% -955 -1.2% -51,802 -39.4%
October 138,891 76,330 76,330 76,330 76,330 76,330 -47,555 -38.4% -13,314 -14.9% -62,561 -45.0%
November 130,714 70,197 70,197 70,197 70,197 70,197 -48,441 -40.8% -5,608 -7.4% -60,517 -46.3%
December 135,753 76,833 74,868 76,100 75,630 95,079 -46,971 to -45,006 -38.6% to -36.9% -15,601 to -13,636 -17.2% to -15.1% -60,885 to -58,920 -44.8% to -43.4%
1Q 393,541 242,730 242,730 242,730 242,730 242,730 -107,669 -30.7% -20,033 -7.6% -150,811 -38.3%
2Q 378,369 224,267 224,267 224,267 224,267 224,267 -130,023 -36.7% -70,686 -24.0% -154,103 -40.7%
3Q 407,777 281,189 281,189 281,189 281,189 281,189 -90,262 -24.3% 41,029 17.1% -126,588 -31.0%
4Q 405,359 223,361 221,396 222,628 222,158 241,607 -142,967 to -141,002 -39.2% to -38.7% -34,522 to -32,557 -13.5% to -12.7% -183,963 to -181,998 -45.4% to -44.9%
Total 1,585,046 971,547 969,582 970,814 970,344 989,793 -470,921 to -468,956 -32.7% to -32.6% -84,212 to -82,248 -8.0% to -7.8% -615,464 to -613,499 -38.8% to -38.7%

Source: ICAO estimates 62


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Asia/Pacific (Total)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 174,204 185,098 173,711 -493 -0.3% -11,387 -6.2% 192,898 95,007 -79,197 -45.5% -78,704 -45.3% -97,891 -50.7% 0%
February 161,072 172,727 109,516 -51,556 -32.0% -63,211 -36.6% 177,348 78,160 -82,912 -51.5% -31,356 -28.6% -99,189 -55.9%
March 170,496 178,163 90,770 -79,726 -46.8% -87,393 -49.1% 181,604 113,808 -56,688 -33.2% 23,038 25.4% -67,796 -37.3%
April 167,743 171,318 40,396 -127,347 -75.9% -130,922 -76.4% 175,450 119,445 -48,298 -28.8% 79,049 195.7% -56,005 -31.9% -20%
May 171,954 176,774 52,676 -119,277 -69.4% -124,097 -70.2% 181,999 106,832 -65,122 -37.9% 54,155 102.8% -75,168 -41.3%
June 169,371 173,111 67,131 -102,240 -60.4% -105,980 -61.2% 177,896 92,598 -76,773 -45.3% 25,467 37.9% -85,298 -47.9%
July 180,295 185,018 85,757 -94,538 -52.4% -99,261 -53.6% 192,736 100,773 -79,521 -44.1% 15,016 17.5% -91,963 -47.7% -40%
August 180,038 185,530 92,470 -87,568 -48.6% -93,061 -50.2% 193,388 75,104 -104,934 -58.3% -17,366 -18.8% -118,284 -61.2%
September 171,208 175,948 91,511 -79,697 -46.5% -84,437 -48.0% 182,972 89,398 -81,810 -47.8% -2,113 -2.3% -93,573 -51.1%
October 176,725 182,595 107,844 -68,881 -39.0% -74,751 -40.9% 191,698 98,874 -77,851 -44.1% -8,970 -8.3% -92,824 -48.4% Actual
-60%
November 170,233 176,350 106,320 -63,912 -37.5% -70,030 -39.7% 184,198 85,518 -84,715 -49.8% -20,803 -19.6% -98,680 -53.6%
Scenario 1
December 176,793 184,048 114,246 -62,547 -35.4% -69,802 -37.9% 192,410 101,578 -75,215 -42.5% -12,668 -11.1% -90,832 -47.2%
1Q 505,772 535,988 373,997 -131,776 -26.1% -161,991 -30.2% 551,850 286,974 -218,798 -43.3% -87,022 -23.3% -264,876 -48.0% Scenario 1a
2Q 509,067 521,202 160,203 -348,864 -68.5% -360,999 -69.3% 535,345 318,874 -190,193 -37.4% 158,671 99.0% -216,471 -40.4% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 531,540 546,496 269,737 -261,803 -49.3% -276,759 -50.6% 569,096 265,275 -266,265 -50.1% -4,462 -1.7% -303,821 -53.4% Scenario 2a
4Q 523,750 542,993 328,410 -195,340 -37.3% -214,583 -39.5% 568,306 285,970 -237,781 -45.4% -42,441 -12.9% -282,337 -49.7%
Reference
Total 2,070,131 2,146,679 1,132,347 -937,783 -45.3% -1,014,332 -47.3% 2,224,597 1,157,093 -913,037 -44.1% 24,746 2.2% -1,067,504 -48.0% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 202,563 102,885 102,885 102,885 102,885 102,885 -71,319 -40.9% 7,879 8.3% -99,678 -49.2%
February 184,297 94,694 94,694 94,694 94,694 94,694 -66,378 -41.2% 16,534 21.2% -89,603 -48.6%
March 186,627 86,344 86,344 86,344 86,344 86,344 -84,152 -49.4% -27,464 -24.1% -100,283 -53.7%
April 179,914 79,037 79,037 79,037 79,037 79,037 -88,706 -52.9% -40,408 -33.8% -100,877 -56.1%
May 187,709 92,125 92,125 92,125 92,125 92,125 -79,829 -46.4% -14,707 -13.8% -95,585 -50.9%
June 182,949 104,237 104,237 104,237 104,237 104,237 -65,134 -38.5% 11,639 12.6% -78,712 -43.0%
July 200,618 123,818 123,818 123,818 123,818 123,818 -56,477 -31.3% 23,045 22.9% -76,801 -38.3%
August 201,607 121,050 121,050 121,050 121,050 121,050 -58,987 -32.8% 45,947 61.2% -80,556 -40.0%
September 190,256 100,984 100,984 100,984 100,984 100,984 -70,224 -41.0% 11,586 13.0% -89,272 -46.9%
October 201,072 99,596 99,596 99,596 99,596 99,596 -77,128 -43.6% 723 0.7% -101,476 -50.5%
November 192,551 94,981 94,981 94,981 94,981 94,981 -75,252 -44.2% 9,463 11.1% -97,570 -50.7%
December 201,511 105,210 102,234 104,612 103,777 125,513 -74,558 to -71,582 -42.2% to -40.5% 657 to 3,632 0.6% to 3.6% -99,277 to -96,301 -49.3% to -47.8%
1Q 573,488 283,924 283,924 283,924 283,924 283,924 -221,849 -43.9% -3,051 -1.1% -289,564 -50.5%
2Q 550,573 275,399 275,399 275,399 275,399 275,399 -233,669 -45.9% -43,475 -13.6% -275,174 -50.0%
3Q 592,481 345,852 345,852 345,852 345,852 345,852 -185,688 -34.9% 80,577 30.4% -246,629 -41.6%
4Q 595,134 299,788 296,812 299,189 298,354 320,090 -226,938 to -223,962 -43.3% to -42.8% 10,842 to 13,818 3.8% to 4.8% -298,322 to -295,346 -50.1% to -49.6%
Total 2,311,676 1,204,963 1,201,987 1,204,364 1,203,529 1,225,265 -868,144 to -865,168 -41.9% to -41.8% 44,893 to 47,869 3.9% to 4.1%-1,109,689 to -1,106,713 -48.0% to -47.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 63


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Asia/Pacific (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 42,441 45,812 43,661 1,220 2.9% -2,151 -4.7% 48,196 2,982 -39,459 -93.0% -40,679 -93.2% -45,214 -93.8%
February 38,761 41,641 24,923 -13,838 -35.7% -16,718 -40.1% 43,110 2,409 -36,352 -93.8% -22,514 -90.3% -40,702 -94.4% Actual
March 41,446 43,367 11,270 -30,176 -72.8% -32,097 -74.0% 44,982 3,065 -38,381 -92.6% -8,205 -72.8% -41,917 -93.2% Scenario 1
April 41,067 42,548 1,344 -39,723 -96.7% -41,204 -96.8% 43,937 3,105 -37,962 -92.4% 1,761 131.0% -40,831 -92.9% -20% Scenario 1a
May 40,029 41,908 1,460 -38,569 -96.4% -40,448 -96.5% 43,547 2,872 -37,157 -92.8% 1,412 96.8% -40,676 -93.4% Scenario 2
June 40,750 42,398 1,616 -39,134 -96.0% -40,782 -96.2% 43,971 2,834 -37,916 -93.0% 1,217 75.3% -41,137 -93.6%
Scenario 2a
July 43,851 45,551 2,201 -41,650 -95.0% -43,350 -95.2% 48,025 3,374 -40,478 -92.3% 1,172 53.3% -44,652 -93.0% -40%
August 44,369 46,665 2,313 -42,056 -94.8% -44,352 -95.0% 49,515 3,730 -40,639 -91.6% 1,417 61.3% -45,785 -92.5%
Reference
September 39,429 40,765 2,320 -37,109 -94.1% -38,444 -94.3% 43,046 3,712 -35,717 -90.6% 1,392 60.0% -39,334 -91.4%
October 40,917 43,233 2,431 -38,486 -94.1% -40,802 -94.4% 45,766 4,026 -36,891 -90.2% 1,595 65.6% -41,740 -91.2%
-60%
November 40,176 42,785 2,380 -37,796 -94.1% -40,406 -94.4% 45,501 4,770 -35,406 -88.1% 2,390 100.4% -40,732 -89.5%
December 44,042 46,952 2,857 -41,186 -93.5% -44,095 -93.9% 49,847 6,159 -37,883 -86.0% 3,302 115.6% -43,688 -87.6%
1Q 122,648 130,820 79,854 -42,794 -34.9% -50,966 -39.0% 136,289 8,456 -114,192 -93.1% -71,398 -89.4% -127,833 -93.8%
2Q 121,846 126,854 4,420 -117,426 -96.4% -122,434 -96.5% 131,455 8,811 -113,035 -92.8% 4,391 99.3% -122,644 -93.3% -80%
3Q 127,649 132,980 6,834 -120,815 -94.6% -126,146 -94.9% 140,586 10,815 -116,834 -91.5% 3,981 58.2% -129,771 -92.3%
4Q 125,135 132,970 7,667 -117,468 -93.9% -125,303 -94.2% 141,114 14,955 -110,180 -88.0% 7,288 95.1% -126,160 -89.4%
Total 497,279 523,625 98,775 -398,503 -80.1% -424,849 -81.1% 549,444 43,037 -454,242 -91.3% -55,738 -56.4% -506,407 -92.2%
-100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 21

Sep 22
Sep 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20

Jan 22
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger Number (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 51,255 7,030 7,030 7,030 7,030 7,030 -35,411 -83.4% 4,047 135.7% -44,225 -86.3%
February 45,230 6,548 6,548 6,548 6,548 6,548 -32,213 -83.1% 4,139 171.9% -38,682 -85.5%
March 46,979 9,017 9,017 9,017 9,017 9,017 -32,429 -78.2% 5,952 194.2% -37,963 -80.8%
April 45,524 10,522 10,522 10,522 10,522 10,522 -30,546 -74.4% 7,416 238.8% -35,003 -76.9%
May 45,464 12,557 12,557 12,557 12,557 12,557 -27,472 -68.6% 9,685 337.2% -32,908 -72.4%
June 45,757 14,329 14,329 14,329 14,329 14,329 -26,421 -64.8% 11,495 405.7% -31,429 -68.7%
July 50,669 17,091 17,091 17,091 17,091 17,091 -26,760 -61.0% 13,717 406.6% -33,578 -66.3%
August 52,639 17,591 17,591 17,591 17,591 17,591 -26,777 -60.4% 13,862 371.6% -35,047 -66.6%
September 45,416 16,882 16,882 16,882 16,882 16,882 -22,547 -57.2% 13,170 354.8% -28,534 -62.8%
October 48,618 18,273 18,273 18,273 18,273 18,273 -22,644 -55.3% 14,247 353.9% -30,345 -62.4%
November 48,616 19,590 19,590 19,590 19,590 19,590 -20,586 -51.2% 14,820 310.7% -29,026 -59.7%
December 53,211 23,048 22,157 23,157 22,860 25,313 -21,885 to -20,886 -49.7% to -47.4% 15,998 to 16,997 259.7% to 276.0% -31,054 to -30,054 -58.4% to -56.5%
1Q 143,465 22,594 22,594 22,594 22,594 22,594 -100,054 -81.6% 14,138 167.2% -120,870 -84.3%
2Q 136,746 37,407 37,407 37,407 37,407 37,407 -84,439 -69.3% 28,596 324.6% -99,339 -72.6%
3Q 148,723 51,564 51,564 51,564 51,564 51,564 -76,085 -59.6% 40,749 376.8% -97,159 -65.3%
4Q 150,445 60,911 60,020 61,020 60,723 63,177 -65,115 to -64,115 -52.0% to -51.2% 45,065 to 46,065 301.3% to 308.0% -90,425 to -89,425 -60.1% to -59.4%
Total 579,380 172,476 171,586 172,585 172,289 174,742 -325,693 to -324,693 -65.5% to -65.3% 128,549 to 129,548 298.7% to 301.0% -407,794 to -406,794 -70.4% to -70.2%

Source: ICAO estimates 64


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Asia/Pacific Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 Asia/Pacific (Domestic)
January 95,680 101,733 93,038 -2,643 -2.8% -8,695 -8.5% 106,281 52,355 -43,325 -45.3% -40,682 -43.7% -53,926 -50.7%
February 93,183 100,554 51,430 -41,752 -44.8% -49,124 -48.9% 103,581 46,634 -46,548 -50.0% -4,796 -9.3% -56,946 -55.0%
0%
March 97,091 102,127 42,604 -54,487 -56.1% -59,523 -58.3% 103,920 75,653 -21,438 -22.1% 33,049 77.6% -28,267 -27.2%
April 95,436 97,512 20,302 -75,134 -78.7% -77,210 -79.2% 100,044 80,139 -15,297 -16.0% 59,837 294.7% -19,906 -19.9%
May 97,706 100,241 30,330 -67,376 -69.0% -69,911 -69.7% 103,321 71,883 -25,823 -26.4% 41,553 137.0% -31,438 -30.4%
June 97,365 99,388 40,509 -56,857 -58.4% -58,880 -59.2% 102,278 60,598 -36,767 -37.8% 20,089 49.6% -41,680 -40.8%
-20%
July 105,023 107,946 53,535 -51,489 -49.0% -54,411 -50.4% 112,482 66,910 -38,113 -36.3% 13,376 25.0% -45,571 -40.5%
August 106,397 109,323 56,921 -49,476 -46.5% -52,402 -47.9% 113,631 39,724 -66,673 -62.7% -17,197 -30.2% -73,907 -65.0%
September 98,156 101,304 62,599 -35,558 -36.2% -38,705 -38.2% 105,198 52,593 -45,564 -46.4% -10,006 -16.0% -52,605 -50.0% -40%
October 102,792 105,942 74,469 -28,322 -27.6% -31,473 -29.7% 111,431 61,365 -41,427 -40.3% -13,105 -17.6% -50,066 -44.9%
November 98,409 101,445 70,498 -27,911 -28.4% -30,947 -30.5% 105,697 49,593 -48,816 -49.6% -20,905 -29.7% -56,104 -53.1%
-60% Actual
December 98,922 102,630 69,627 -29,294 -29.6% -33,002 -32.2% 107,153 58,650 -40,271 -40.7% -10,977 -15.8% -48,503 -45.3%
1Q 285,954 304,414 187,072 -98,882 -34.6% -117,342 -38.5% 313,781 174,643 -111,312 -38.9% -12,429 -6.6% -139,138 -44.3% Scenario 1
2Q 290,507 297,141 91,140 -199,367 -68.6% -206,001 -69.3% 305,643 212,620 -77,887 -26.8% 121,479 133.3% -93,023 -30.4% Scenario 1a
3Q 309,577 318,573 173,055 -136,522 -44.1% -145,518 -45.7% 331,311 159,228 -150,349 -48.6% -13,827 -8.0% -172,083 -51.9% -80% Scenario 2
4Q 300,122 310,017 214,594 -85,527 -28.5% -95,422 -30.8% 324,281 169,607 -130,514 -43.5% -44,987 -21.0% -154,674 -47.7% Scenario 2a
Total 1,186,160 1,230,145 665,862 -520,298 -43.9% -564,283 -45.9% 1,275,016 716,098 -470,063 -39.6% 50,236 7.5% -558,918 -43.8% Reference
Passenger Number (thousand) - Asia/Pacific Domestic -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 21

Sep 22
Sep 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20

Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Jan 20

Jan 21
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 111,421 51,680 51,680 51,680 51,680 51,680 -44,000 -46.0% -675 -1.3% -59,741 -53.6%
February 107,632 53,318 53,318 53,318 53,318 53,318 -39,864 -42.8% 6,684 14.3% -54,313 -50.5%
March 106,383 48,477 48,477 48,477 48,477 48,477 -48,615 -50.1% -27,176 -35.9% -57,906 -54.4%
April 102,414 42,953 42,953 42,953 42,953 42,953 -52,483 -55.0% -37,186 -46.4% -59,462 -58.1%
May 106,237 51,852 51,852 51,852 51,852 51,852 -45,854 -46.9% -20,031 -27.9% -54,385 -51.2%
June 104,915 61,683 61,683 61,683 61,683 61,683 -35,683 -36.6% 1,085 1.8% -43,232 -41.2%
July 116,737 77,889 77,889 77,889 77,889 77,889 -27,135 -25.8% 10,978 16.4% -38,849 -33.3%
August 117,709 72,637 72,637 72,637 72,637 72,637 -33,760 -31.7% 32,913 82.9% -45,071 -38.3%
September 108,981 58,987 58,987 58,987 58,987 58,987 -39,169 -39.9% 6,394 12.2% -49,993 -45.9%
October 116,578 58,687 58,687 58,687 58,687 58,687 -44,105 -42.9% -2,678 -4.4% -57,891 -49.7%
November 109,704 55,019 55,019 55,019 55,019 55,019 -43,390 -44.1% 5,426 10.9% -54,686 -49.8%
December 111,567 57,820 56,599 57,738 56,624 73,434 -42,322 to -41,102 -42.8% to -41.6% -2,051 to -831 -3.5% to -1.4% -54,968 to -53,748 -49.3% to -48.2%
1Q 325,435 153,476 153,476 153,476 153,476 153,476 -132,479 -46.3% -21,167 -12.1% -171,960 -52.8%
2Q 313,566 156,487 156,487 156,487 156,487 156,487 -134,020 -46.1% -56,133 -26.4% -157,080 -50.1%
3Q 343,427 209,513 209,513 209,513 209,513 209,513 -100,064 -32.3% 50,285 31.6% -133,913 -39.0%
4Q 337,850 171,525 170,305 171,443 170,329 187,139 -129,817 to -128,597 -43.3% to -42.8% 698 to 1,918 0.4% to 1.1% -167,545 to -166,325 -49.6% to -49.2%
Total 1,320,278 691,000 689,780 690,918 689,805 706,615 -496,380 to -495,160 -41.8% to -41.7% -26,317 to -25,097 -3.7% to -3.5% -630,498 to -629,278 -47.8% to -47.7%

Source: ICAO estimates 65


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 Asia/Pacific (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0%
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 138,121 147,545 136,699 -1,423 -1.0% -10,846 -7.4% 154,477 55,337 -82,784 -59.9% -81,362 -59.5% -99,140 -64.2%
February 131,944 142,195 76,353 -55,591 -42.1% -65,842 -46.3% 146,691 49,043 -82,901 -62.8% -27,310 -35.8% -97,648 -66.6%
March 138,537 145,494 53,874 -84,663 -61.1% -91,620 -63.0% 148,902 78,718 -59,819 -43.2% 24,844 46.1% -70,184 -47.1% -20%
April 136,503 140,060 21,646 -114,857 -84.1% -118,414 -84.5% 143,981 83,244 -53,259 -39.0% 61,598 284.6% -60,737 -42.2%
May 137,735 142,149 31,790 -105,945 -76.9% -110,359 -77.6% 146,868 74,755 -62,980 -45.7% 42,965 135.2% -72,113 -49.1%
June 138,115 141,786 42,125 -95,991 -69.5% -99,662 -70.3% 146,249 63,432 -74,684 -54.1% 21,307 50.6% -82,817 -56.6% -40%
July 148,875 153,497 55,736 -93,139 -62.6% -97,761 -63.7% 160,507 70,284 -78,591 -52.8% 14,548 26.1% -90,223 -56.2%
August 150,766 155,988 59,234 -91,531 -60.7% -96,754 -62.0% 163,146 43,454 -107,312 -71.2% -15,780 -26.6% -119,691 -73.4%
September 137,586 142,069 64,919 -72,667 -52.8% -77,150 -54.3% 148,244 56,305 -81,281 -59.1% -8,614 -13.3% -91,939 -62.0% -60% Actual
October 143,708 149,175 76,900 -66,808 -46.5% -72,275 -48.4% 157,197 65,391 -78,318 -54.5% -11,509 -15.0% -91,806 -58.4%
November 138,584 144,231 72,878 -65,707 -47.4% -71,353 -49.5% 151,199 54,363 -84,222 -60.8% -18,515 -25.4% -96,836 -64.0% Scenario 1
December 142,964 149,581 72,484 -70,480 -49.3% -77,098 -51.5% 157,000 64,809 -78,155 -54.7% -7,675 -10.6% -92,191 -58.7% Scenario 1a
1Q 408,602 435,234 266,926 -141,677 -34.7% -168,309 -38.7% 450,070 183,099 -225,504 -55.2% -83,827 -31.4% -266,971 -59.3% -80% Scenario 2
2Q 412,353 423,995 95,560 -316,793 -76.8% -328,435 -77.5% 437,098 221,430 -190,923 -46.3% 125,870 131.7% -215,667 -49.3% Scenario 2a
3Q 437,226 451,553 179,890 -257,337 -58.9% -271,664 -60.2% 471,897 170,043 -267,183 -61.1% -9,846 -5.5% -301,853 -64.0% Reference
4Q 425,257 442,987 222,262 -202,995 -47.7% -220,725 -49.8% 465,395 184,562 -240,695 -56.6% -37,699 -17.0% -280,833 -60.3% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 22
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Total 1,683,439 1,753,770 764,638 -918,801 -54.6% -989,133 -56.4% 1,824,460 759,135 -924,304 -54.9% -5,503 -0.7% -1,065,326 -58.4%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Asia/Pacific International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 162,676 58,710 58,710 58,710 58,710 58,710 -79,411 -57.5% 3,373 6.1% -103,966 -63.9%
February 152,862 59,866 59,866 59,866 59,866 59,866 -72,077 -54.6% 10,823 22.1% -92,996 -60.8%
March 153,362 57,494 57,494 57,494 57,494 57,494 -81,044 -58.5% -21,225 -27.0% -95,868 -62.5%
April 147,939 53,474 53,474 53,474 53,474 53,474 -83,029 -60.8% -29,770 -35.8% -94,464 -63.9%
May 151,702 64,408 64,408 64,408 64,408 64,408 -73,327 -53.2% -10,347 -13.8% -87,293 -57.5%
June 150,672 76,011 76,011 76,011 76,011 76,011 -62,104 -45.0% 12,580 19.8% -74,661 -49.6%
July 167,406 94,979 94,979 94,979 94,979 94,979 -53,895 -36.2% 24,695 35.1% -72,427 -43.3%
August 170,347 90,229 90,229 90,229 90,229 90,229 -60,537 -40.2% 46,775 107.6% -80,119 -47.0%
September 154,396 75,869 75,869 75,869 75,869 75,869 -61,716 -44.9% 19,564 34.7% -78,527 -50.9%
October 165,197 76,960 76,960 76,960 76,960 76,960 -66,748 -46.4% 11,570 17.7% -88,236 -53.4%
November 158,320 74,609 74,609 74,609 74,609 74,609 -63,976 -46.2% 20,246 37.2% -83,712 -52.9%
December 164,778 80,867 78,756 80,894 79,484 98,747 -64,207 to -62,070 -44.9% to -43.4% 13,947 to 16,085 21.5% to 24.8% -86,022 to -83,884 -52.2% to -50.9%
1Q 468,900 176,070 176,070 176,070 176,070 176,070 -232,533 -56.9% -7,029 -3.8% -292,830 -62.5%
2Q 450,313 193,894 193,894 193,894 193,894 193,894 -218,460 -53.0% -27,537 -12.4% -256,419 -56.9%
3Q 492,150 261,077 261,077 261,077 261,077 261,077 -176,149 -40.3% 91,034 53.5% -231,073 -47.0%
4Q 488,295 232,436 230,325 232,463 231,052 250,316 -194,932 to -192,794 -45.8% to -45.3% 45,763 to 47,901 24.8% to 26.0% -257,970 to -255,832 -52.8% to -52.4%
Total 1,899,658 863,477 861,366 863,504 862,093 881,357 -822,073 to -819,935 -48.8% to -48.7% 102,232 to 104,369 13.5% to 13.7%-1,038,291 to -1,036,154 -54.7% to -54.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 66


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Asia/Pacific International
Year 2019 2020 2021 Asia/Pacific (International)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline 1
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 9,033 9,794 9,414 381 4.2% -380 -3.9% 10,320 687 -8,347 -92.4% -8,728 -92.7% -9,633 -93.3% 0
February 8,223 8,891 5,529 -2,693 -32.8% -3,362 -37.8% 9,200 556 -7,667 -93.2% -4,973 -89.9% -8,644 -94.0% Actual
March 8,844 9,258 2,652 -6,193 -70.0% -6,606 -71.4% 9,561 699 -8,145 -92.1% -1,952 -73.6% -8,861 -92.7% -1
Scenario 1
April 8,718 9,008 299 -8,419 -96.6% -8,709 -96.7% 9,316 697 -8,020 -92.0% 399 133.6% -8,619 -92.5%
May 8,507 8,878 326 -8,180 -96.2% -8,552 -96.3% 9,211 664 -7,843 -92.2% 337 103.4% -8,547 -92.8% -2 Scenario 1a
Scenario 2

Billions (USD)
June 8,670 8,990 370 -8,300 -95.7% -8,620 -95.9% 9,334 669 -8,001 -92.3% 299 80.7% -8,665 -92.8%
July 9,317 9,660 506 -8,812 -94.6% -9,154 -94.8% 10,172 800 -8,517 -91.4% 295 58.3% -9,372 -92.1% -3
Scenario 2a
August 9,457 9,939 546 -8,911 -94.2% -9,393 -94.5% 10,530 878 -8,579 -90.7% 333 61.0% -9,651 -91.7%
-4 Reference
September 8,462 8,710 543 -7,919 -93.6% -8,168 -93.8% 9,191 863 -7,599 -89.8% 320 58.9% -8,328 -90.6%
October 8,796 9,310 567 -8,228 -93.5% -8,742 -93.9% 9,866 941 -7,855 -89.3% 373 65.8% -8,925 -90.5%
-5
November 8,632 9,221 558 -8,074 -93.5% -8,663 -94.0% 9,814 1,116 -7,516 -87.1% 558 100.0% -8,699 -88.6%
December 9,491 10,165 670 -8,821 -92.9% -9,495 -93.4% 10,809 1,421 -8,070 -85.0% 752 112.2% -9,387 -86.9% -6
1Q 26,100 27,943 17,595 -8,505 -32.6% -10,348 -37.0% 29,080 1,942 -24,159 -92.6% -15,654 -89.0% -27,139 -93.3%
2Q 25,894 26,876 995 -24,899 -96.2% -25,881 -96.3% 27,861 2,031 -23,864 -92.2% 1,035 104.0% -25,831 -92.7% -7
3Q 27,236 28,309 1,594 -25,641 -94.1% -26,715 -94.4% 29,893 2,542 -24,694 -90.7% 947 59.4% -27,351 -91.5%
4Q 26,919 28,695 1,795 -25,124 -93.3% -26,900 -93.7% 30,489 3,478 -23,441 -87.1% 1,683 93.8% -27,011 -88.6% -8
Total 106,149 111,823 21,980 -84,169 -79.3% -89,844 -80.3% 117,323 9,991 -96,158 -90.6% -11,988 -54.5% -107,332 -91.5%
-9
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Asia/Pacific International
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Year 2022 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 10,994 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 -7,348 -81.3% 999 145.5% -9,309 -84.7%
February 9,658 1,570 1,570 1,570 1,570 1,570 -6,653 -80.9% 1,014 182.4% -8,088 -83.7%
March 9,951 2,123 2,123 2,123 2,123 2,123 -6,721 -76.0% 1,424 203.6% -7,828 -78.7%
April 9,665 2,455 2,455 2,455 2,455 2,455 -6,262 -71.8% 1,758 252.0% -7,210 -74.6%
May 9,600 2,876 2,876 2,876 2,876 2,876 -5,631 -66.2% 2,212 333.3% -6,725 -70.0%
June 9,720 3,269 3,269 3,269 3,269 3,269 -5,401 -62.3% 2,600 388.4% -6,451 -66.4%
July 10,722 3,863 3,863 3,863 3,863 3,863 -5,454 -58.5% 3,063 382.6% -6,859 -64.0%
August 11,183 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 3,972 -5,485 -58.0% 3,093 352.2% -7,212 -64.5%
September 9,685 3,789 3,789 3,789 3,789 3,789 -4,672 -55.2% 2,926 339.1% -5,896 -60.9%
October 10,492 4,077 4,077 4,077 4,077 4,077 -4,719 -53.7% 3,136 333.3% -6,416 -61.1%
November 10,497 4,225 4,225 4,225 4,225 4,225 -4,407 -51.1% 3,110 278.8% -6,271 -59.7%
December 11,561 4,972 4,779 4,996 4,932 5,462 -4,711 to -4,495 -49.6% to -47.4% 3,358 to 3,575 236.3% to 251.5% -6,782 to -6,566 -58.7% to -56.8%
1Q 30,603 5,378 5,378 5,378 5,378 5,378 -20,722 -79.4% 3,437 177.0% -25,225 -82.4%
2Q 28,986 8,601 8,601 8,601 8,601 8,601 -17,294 -66.8% 6,570 323.6% -20,385 -70.3%
3Q 31,590 11,624 11,624 11,624 11,624 11,624 -15,612 -57.3% 9,082 357.4% -19,966 -63.2%
4Q 32,551 13,274 13,081 13,298 13,234 13,764 -13,837 to -13,621 -51.4% to -50.6% 9,604 to 9,820 276.2% to 282.4% -19,469 to -19,253 -59.8% to -59.1%
Total 123,729 38,877 38,684 38,900 38,836 39,367 -67,465 to -67,248 -63.6% to -63.4% 28,693 to 28,909 287.2% to 289.3% -85,045 to -84,829 -68.7% to -68.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 67


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Asia/Pacific Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Asia/Pacific (Domestic)
Month 0
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 7,138 7,605 6,847 -290 -4.1% -758 -10.0% 7,996 4,037 -3,101 -43.4% -2,810 -41.0% -3,959 -49.5%
February 7,008 7,574 3,284 -3,724 -53.1% -4,290 -56.6% 7,840 3,500 -3,508 -50.1% 216 6.6% -4,340 -55.4%
March 7,208 7,594 2,981 -4,228 -58.7% -4,613 -60.7% 7,766 5,943 -1,266 -17.6% 2,962 99.4% -1,824 -23.5% -1
April 7,113 7,236 1,716 -5,397 -75.9% -5,521 -76.3% 7,427 6,348 -765 -10.8% 4,632 270.0% -1,079 -14.5%
May 7,278 7,427 2,564 -4,714 -64.8% -4,863 -65.5% 7,653 5,869 -1,409 -19.4% 3,305 128.9% -1,784 -23.3%
June 7,240 7,359 3,295 -3,946 -54.5% -4,065 -55.2% 7,581 4,877 -2,364 -32.6% 1,582 48.0% -2,704 -35.7% -2

Billions (USD)
July 7,837 8,011 4,312 -3,524 -45.0% -3,698 -46.2% 8,350 5,428 -2,409 -30.7% 1,115 25.9% -2,922 -35.0%
August 7,937 8,113 4,678 -3,260 -41.1% -3,436 -42.3% 8,437 3,002 -4,936 -62.2% -1,676 -35.8% -5,436 -64.4%
September 7,291 7,479 5,052 -2,239 -30.7% -2,428 -32.5% 7,761 4,167 -3,123 -42.8% -884 -17.5% -3,594 -46.3% -3
October 7,622 7,887 5,931 -1,691 -22.2% -1,955 -24.8% 8,311 4,745 -2,878 -37.8% -1,187 -20.0% -3,566 -42.9%
November 7,233 7,464 5,516 -1,717 -23.7% -1,948 -26.1% 7,781 3,550 -3,683 -50.9% -1,966 -35.6% -4,231 -54.4% Actual
December 7,279 7,569 5,435 -1,844 -25.3% -2,134 -28.2% 7,922 4,257 -3,022 -41.5% -1,178 -21.7% -3,665 -46.3% -4 Scenario 1
1Q 21,354 22,773 13,112 -8,242 -38.6% -9,661 -42.4% 23,602 13,480 -7,874 -36.9% 368 2.8% -10,122 -42.9% Scenario 1a
2Q 21,631 22,023 7,574 -14,057 -65.0% -14,449 -65.6% 22,661 17,094 -4,537 -21.0% 9,520 125.7% -5,567 -24.6%
Scenario 2
3Q 23,065 23,603 14,042 -9,023 -39.1% -9,562 -40.5% 24,549 12,597 -10,468 -45.4% -1,445 -10.3% -11,952 -48.7% -5
4Q 22,134 22,920 16,882 -5,252 -23.7% -6,038 -26.3% 24,013 12,552 -9,582 -43.3% -4,330 -25.7% -11,462 -47.7% Scenario 2a
Total 88,184 91,319 51,610 -36,574 -41.5% -39,709 -43.5% 94,824 55,723 -32,462 -36.8% 4,112 8.0% -39,102 -41.2% Reference
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Asia/Pacific Domestic -6
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Year 2022 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 8,431 3,907 3,907 3,907 3,907 3,907 -3,231 -45.3% -130 -3.2% -4,524 -53.7%
February 8,183 4,077 4,077 4,077 4,077 4,077 -2,931 -41.8% 577 16.5% -4,107 -50.2%
March 7,988 3,336 3,336 3,336 3,336 3,336 -3,872 -53.7% -2,607 -43.9% -4,652 -58.2%
April 7,601 2,792 2,792 2,792 2,792 2,792 -4,320 -60.7% -3,556 -56.0% -4,808 -63.3%
May 7,863 3,440 3,440 3,440 3,440 3,440 -3,838 -52.7% -2,429 -41.4% -4,423 -56.2%
June 7,779 4,308 4,308 4,308 4,308 4,308 -2,932 -40.5% -569 -11.7% -3,471 -44.6%
July 8,662 5,656 5,656 5,656 5,656 5,656 -2,180 -27.8% 229 4.2% -3,006 -34.7%
August 8,738 5,198 5,198 5,198 5,198 5,198 -2,739 -34.5% 2,197 73.2% -3,540 -40.5%
September 8,029 4,089 4,089 4,089 4,089 4,089 -3,201 -43.9% -78 -1.9% -3,940 -49.1%
October 8,718 3,925 3,925 3,925 3,925 3,925 -3,697 -48.5% -820 -17.3% -4,793 -55.0%
November 8,085 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 -3,621 -50.1% 62 1.7% -4,473 -55.3%
December 8,271 3,810 3,722 3,802 3,727 4,922 -3,557 to -3,469 -48.9% to -47.7% -535 to -448 -12.6% to -10.5% -4,549 to -4,462 -55.0% to -53.9%
1Q 24,603 11,320 11,320 11,320 11,320 11,320 -10,035 -47.0% -2,160 -16.0% -13,283 -54.0%
2Q 23,243 10,541 10,541 10,541 10,541 10,541 -11,091 -51.3% -6,553 -38.3% -12,702 -54.6%
3Q 25,429 14,944 14,944 14,944 14,944 14,944 -8,121 -35.2% 2,347 18.6% -10,485 -41.2%
4Q 25,074 11,346 11,259 11,338 11,263 12,459 -10,875 to -10,788 -49.1% to -48.7% -1,293 to -1,206 -10.3% to -9.6% -13,815 to -13,728 -55.1% to -54.7%
Total 98,348 48,150 48,063 48,142 48,067 49,263 -40,121 to -40,034 -45.5% to -45.4% -7,660 to -7,572 -13.7% to -13.6% -50,286 to -50,198 -51.1% to -51.0%

Source: ICAO estimates 68


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Asia/Pacific International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Asia/Pacific (Total)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 16,171 17,399 16,262 91 0.6% -1,137 -6.5% 18,315 4,723 -11,447 -70.8% -11,538 -71.0% -13,592 -74.2%
0
February 15,231 16,465 8,813 -6,417 -42.1% -7,652 -46.5% 17,040 4,056 -11,175 -73.4% -4,757 -54.0% -12,984 -76.2%
March 16,053 16,851 5,632 -10,421 -64.9% -11,219 -66.6% 17,327 6,642 -9,411 -58.6% 1,010 17.9% -10,685 -61.7% Actual
April 15,831 16,244 2,014 -13,816 -87.3% -14,230 -87.6% 16,743 7,045 -8,785 -55.5% 5,031 249.8% -9,698 -57.9% -2 Scenario 1
May 15,785 16,306 2,890 -12,894 -81.7% -13,415 -82.3% 16,864 6,533 -9,252 -58.6% 3,643 126.0% -10,331 -61.3%
Scenario 1a
June 15,911 16,350 3,665 -12,246 -77.0% -12,685 -77.6% 16,915 5,546 -10,364 -65.1% 1,881 51.3% -11,369 -67.2%
-4 Scenario 2
July 17,154 17,671 4,818 -12,336 -71.9% -12,852 -72.7% 18,522 6,228 -10,925 -63.7% 1,410 29.3% -12,294 -66.4%

Billions (USD)
August 17,394 18,052 5,223 -12,171 -70.0% -12,829 -71.1% 18,967 3,880 -13,514 -77.7% -1,343 -25.7% -15,087 -79.5% Scenario 2a
September 15,752 16,190 5,595 -10,158 -64.5% -10,595 -65.4% 16,952 5,030 -10,722 -68.1% -564 -10.1% -11,922 -70.3% -6 Reference
October 16,418 17,196 6,499 -9,919 -60.4% -10,698 -62.2% 18,176 5,685 -10,732 -65.4% -813 -12.5% -12,491 -68.7%
November 15,865 16,685 6,074 -9,791 -61.7% -10,611 -63.6% 17,595 4,666 -11,199 -70.6% -1,408 -23.2% -12,930 -73.5%
-8
December 16,770 17,734 6,105 -10,665 -63.6% -11,629 -65.6% 18,730 5,678 -11,092 -66.1% -426 -7.0% -13,052 -69.7%
1Q 47,455 50,716 30,707 -16,747 -35.3% -20,009 -39.5% 52,682 15,421 -32,033 -67.5% -15,286 -49.8% -37,261 -70.7%
2Q 47,526 48,899 8,570 -38,956 -82.0% -40,330 -82.5% 50,522 19,125 -28,401 -59.8% 10,555 123.2% -31,397 -62.1% -10
3Q 50,300 51,912 15,636 -34,664 -68.9% -36,277 -69.9% 54,441 15,138 -35,162 -69.9% -497 -3.2% -39,303 -72.2%
4Q 49,052 51,615 18,677 -30,376 -61.9% -32,938 -63.8% 54,502 16,029 -33,023 -67.3% -2,648 -14.2% -38,473 -70.6% -12
Total 194,333 203,143 73,590 -120,743 -62.1% -129,553 -63.8% 212,148 65,714 -128,619 -66.2% -7,876 -10.7% -146,434 -69.0%

Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Asia/Pacific International + Domestic -14


Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
Year 2022
20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 19,425 5,592 5,592 5,592 5,592 5,592 -10,579 -65.4% 868 18.4% -13,833 -71.2%
February 17,842 5,647 5,647 5,647 5,647 5,647 -9,584 -62.9% 1,591 39.2% -12,195 -68.4%
March 17,939 5,459 5,459 5,459 5,459 5,459 -10,594 -66.0% -1,183 -17.8% -12,480 -69.6%
April 17,266 5,248 5,248 5,248 5,248 5,248 -10,583 -66.9% -1,798 -25.5% -12,018 -69.6%
May 17,463 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 -9,469 -60.0% -217 -3.3% -11,147 -63.8%
June 17,499 7,578 7,578 7,578 7,578 7,578 -8,333 -52.4% 2,031 36.6% -9,922 -56.7%
July 19,384 9,520 9,520 9,520 9,520 9,520 -7,634 -44.5% 3,291 52.8% -9,864 -50.9%
August 19,921 9,170 9,170 9,170 9,170 9,170 -8,224 -47.3% 5,290 136.3% -10,751 -54.0%
September 17,714 7,878 7,878 7,878 7,878 7,878 -7,874 -50.0% 2,848 56.6% -9,835 -55.5%
October 19,210 8,002 8,002 8,002 8,002 8,002 -8,416 -51.3% 2,316 40.7% -11,209 -58.3%
November 18,581 7,837 7,837 7,837 7,837 7,837 -8,028 -50.6% 3,171 68.0% -10,745 -57.8%
December 19,833 8,782 8,502 8,797 8,658 10,384 -8,268 to -7,973 -49.3% to -47.5% 2,823 to 3,119 49.7% to 54.9% -11,331 to -11,035 -57.1% to -55.6%
1Q 55,206 16,698 16,698 16,698 16,698 16,698 -30,757 -64.8% 1,276 8.3% -38,508 -69.8%
2Q 52,228 19,141 19,141 19,141 19,141 19,141 -28,385 -59.7% 17 0.1% -33,087 -63.4%
3Q 57,019 26,568 26,568 26,568 26,568 26,568 -23,732 -47.2% 11,429 75.5% -30,451 -53.4%
4Q 57,624 24,620 24,340 24,636 24,496 26,223 -24,712 to -24,417 -50.4% to -49.8% 8,311 to 8,606 51.8% to 53.7% -33,284 to -32,989 -57.8% to -57.2%
Total 222,078 87,027 86,747 87,043 86,903 88,630 -107,586 to -107,290 -55.4% to -55.2% 21,033 to 21,329 32.0% to 32.5% -135,331 to -135,035 -60.9% to -60.8%

Source: ICAO estimates 69


Europe

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -16.1% -18.8% -9.7% -45,161 -19.2% -34,739 -20.9% -10,422 -15.2% -5,897 -5,040 -857
2Q 2020 -90.4% -93.7% -80.8% -291,595 -94.2% -223,834 -96.9% -67,761 -86.3% -36,453 -30,882 -5,571
3Q 2020 -57.5% -66.2% -30.4% -238,774 -68.0% -209,853 -78.8% -28,921 -34.1% -32,247 -29,870 -2,378
4Q 2020 -65.3% -74.4% -41.6% -200,326 -75.3% -163,959 -84.7% -36,367 -50.1% -26,448 -23,458 -2,990
Total 2020 -59.3% -65.9% -41.1% -775,856 -66.8% -632,385 -73.8% -143,471 -47.1% -101,045 -89,249 -11,795
1Q 2021 -71.9% -80.6% -51.4% -183,207 -78.0% -147,275 -88.7% -35,932 -52.3% -24,192 -21,238 -2,954
2Q 2021 -63.4% -74.0% -32.8% -220,548 -71.2% -192,851 -83.5% -27,697 -35.3% -28,870 -26,593 -2,277
3Q 2021 -32.1% -41.7% -2.2% -149,504 -42.6% -145,093 -54.5% -4,412 -5.2% -21,893 -21,530 -363
4Q 2021 -26.4% -32.9% -9.4% -92,163 -34.6% -83,046 -42.9% -9,117 -12.6% -13,851 -13,102 -750
Total 2021 -47.4% -56.2% -23.3% -645,422 -55.6% -568,265 -66.3% -77,157 -25.3% -88,806 -82,463 -6,343
1Q 2022 -35.5% -38.0% -29.6% -101,173 -43.1% -78,159 -47.0% -23,014 -33.5% -13,441 -11,549 -1,892
2Q 2022 -21.6% -23.6% -15.8% -73,513 -23.7% -59,274 -25.7% -14,239 -18.1% -9,787 -8,617 -1,171
3Q 2022 -19.5% -22.0% -11.8% -70,922 -20.2% -61,489 -23.1% -9,433 -11.1% -9,408 -8,632 -776
4Q 2022 -24.3% to -23.5% -24.7% to -23.7% -23.3% to -22.8% -63,226 to -60,949 -23.8% to -22.9% -47,038 to -45,124 -24.3% to -23.3% -16,189 to -15,826 -22.3% to -21.8% -8,222 to -7,913 -6,891 to -6,612 -1,331 to -1,301
Total 2022 -24.5% to -24.3% -26.3% to -26.0% -19.8% to -19.7% -308,834 to -306,557 -26.6% to -26.4% -245,959 to -244,045 -28.7% to -28.5% -62,874 to -62,512 -20.6% to -20.5% -40,858 to -40,550 -35,689 to -35,410 -5,169 to -5,139

70
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Europe International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 Europe (International)
January 69,659 70,287 65,774 -3,886 -5.6% -4,514 -6.4% 71,241 16,093 -53,566 -76.9% -49,681 -75.5% -55,148 -77.4%
February 63,900 67,744 62,057 -1,843 -2.9% -5,686 -8.4% 69,638 10,860 -53,040 -83.0% -51,197 -82.5% -58,778 -84.4% 0%
March 72,988 76,154 39,881 -33,106 -45.4% -36,273 -47.6% 77,475 13,159 -59,829 -82.0% -26,723 -67.0% -64,316 -83.0%
April 84,037 86,438 3,667 -80,369 -95.6% -82,771 -95.8% 89,545 16,849 -67,187 -80.0% 13,182 359.4% -72,696 -81.2%
May 93,390 94,115 4,557 -88,833 -95.1% -89,558 -95.2% 95,292 21,067 -72,323 -77.4% 16,510 362.3% -74,225 -77.9%
June 98,682 102,174 9,171 -89,511 -90.7% -93,003 -91.0% 106,793 33,957 -64,725 -65.6% 24,786 270.3% -72,836 -68.2% -20%
July 105,252 108,317 29,560 -75,692 -71.9% -78,757 -72.7% 112,629 56,335 -48,917 -46.5% 26,775 90.6% -56,294 -50.0%
August 105,629 108,033 41,903 -63,725 -60.3% -66,129 -61.2% 111,865 64,085 -41,543 -39.3% 22,182 52.9% -47,780 -42.7%
September 98,867 101,066 33,133 -65,733 -66.5% -67,933 -67.2% 104,379 60,140 -38,727 -39.2% 27,006 81.5% -44,240 -42.4% -40%
October 92,528 92,710 27,777 -64,752 -70.0% -64,933 -70.0% 93,957 60,057 -32,471 -35.1% 32,281 116.2% -33,900 -36.1%
November 70,484 70,566 15,148 -55,336 -78.5% -55,418 -78.5% 71,243 47,537 -22,947 -32.6% 32,389 213.8% -23,706 -33.3%
December 71,833 74,286 17,268 -54,565 -76.0% -57,018 -76.8% 77,011 49,946 -21,887 -30.5% 32,678 189.2% -27,065 -35.1% Actual
1Q 206,547 214,185 167,712 -38,835 -18.8% -46,473 -21.7% 218,354 40,111 -166,436 -80.6% -127,601 -76.1% -178,243 -81.6% -60%
2Q 276,109 282,728 17,395 -258,713 -93.7% -265,332 -93.8% 291,631 71,874 -204,235 -74.0% 54,478 313.2% -219,757 -75.4% Scenario 1
3Q 309,747 317,416 104,596 -205,151 -66.2% -212,819 -67.0% 328,873 180,560 -129,188 -41.7% 75,963 72.6% -148,314 -45.1% Scenario 1a
4Q 234,845 237,562 60,193 -174,652 -74.4% -177,369 -74.7% 242,211 157,541 -77,304 -32.9% 97,348 161.7% -84,670 -35.0%
-80% Scenario 2
Total 1,027,249 1,051,890 349,897 -677,352 -65.9% -701,993 -66.7% 1,081,069 450,085 -577,163 -56.2% 100,189 28.6% -630,984 -58.4%
Scenario 2a
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Europe International Reference
Year 2022 -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Jan 21

Jan 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 72,292 40,883 40,883 40,883 40,883 40,883 -28,776 -41.3% 24,790 154.0% -31,408 -43.4%
February 72,181 38,439 38,439 38,439 38,439 38,439 -25,461 -39.8% 27,579 254.0% -33,742 -46.7%
March 79,382 48,653 48,653 48,653 48,653 48,653 -24,334 -33.3% 35,495 269.7% -30,728 -38.7%
April 92,776 63,030 63,030 63,030 63,030 63,030 -21,007 -25.0% 46,181 274.1% -29,746 -32.1%
May 96,567 72,085 72,085 72,085 72,085 72,085 -21,305 -22.8% 51,018 242.2% -24,482 -25.4%
June 111,614 75,902 75,902 75,902 75,902 75,902 -22,780 -23.1% 41,945 123.5% -35,713 -32.0%
July 117,051 82,968 82,968 82,968 82,968 82,968 -22,284 -21.2% 26,633 47.3% -34,084 -29.1%
August 115,725 83,552 83,552 83,552 83,552 83,552 -22,077 -20.9% 19,467 30.4% -32,173 -27.8%
September 107,745 75,113 75,113 75,113 75,113 75,113 -23,754 -24.0% 14,973 24.9% -32,632 -30.3%
October 95,171 72,318 72,318 72,318 72,318 72,318 -20,210 -21.8% 12,260 20.4% -22,853 -24.0%
November 71,934 51,614 51,614 51,614 51,614 51,614 -18,870 -26.8% 4,076 8.6% -20,320 -28.2%
December 79,927 53,079 55,214 53,113 53,019 48,631 -18,814 to -16,619 -26.2% to -23.1% 3,073 to 5,268 6.2% to 10.5% -26,909 to -24,713 -33.7% to -30.9%
1Q 223,854 127,976 127,976 127,976 127,976 127,976 -78,572 -38.0% 87,864 219.1% -95,879 -42.8%
2Q 300,958 211,017 211,017 211,017 211,017 211,017 -65,092 -23.6% 139,144 193.6% -89,941 -29.9%
3Q 340,522 241,632 241,632 241,632 241,632 241,632 -68,115 -22.0% 61,073 33.8% -98,889 -29.0%
4Q 247,032 177,010 179,145 177,045 176,950 172,562 -57,895 to -55,700 -24.7% to -23.7% 19,409 to 21,605 12.3% to 13.7% -70,082 to -67,886 -28.4% to -27.5%
Total 1,112,366 757,635 759,771 757,670 757,576 753,188 -269,673 to -267,478 -26.3% to -26.0% 307,490 to 309,685 68.3% to 68.8% -354,790 to -352,595 -31.9% to -31.7%

Source: ICAO estimates 71


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Europe Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Europe (Domestic)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 29,764 29,259 30,380 615 2.1% 1,121 3.8% 28,966 14,813 -14,951 -50.2% -15,567 -51.2% -14,153 -48.9% 0%
February 27,380 27,206 28,027 647 2.4% 822 3.0% 27,867 12,670 -14,710 -53.7% -15,357 -54.8% -15,197 -54.5%
March 30,726 30,142 20,943 -9,783 -31.8% -9,199 -30.5% 29,780 15,245 -15,480 -50.4% -5,698 -27.2% -14,534 -48.8%
April 30,181 30,043 3,621 -26,560 -88.0% -26,422 -87.9% 29,833 16,967 -13,214 -43.8% 13,346 368.6% -12,866 -43.1%
May 32,290 32,062 4,214 -28,076 -87.0% -27,849 -86.9% 32,130 20,157 -12,133 -37.6% 15,944 378.4% -11,973 -37.3% -20%
June 32,792 32,561 10,465 -22,328 -68.1% -22,096 -67.9% 32,620 26,884 -5,908 -18.0% 16,419 156.9% -5,736 -17.6%
July 33,177 32,943 20,622 -12,555 -37.8% -12,320 -37.4% 33,351 32,620 -556 -1.7% 11,998 58.2% -730 -2.2%
August 33,181 32,947 25,615 -7,566 -22.8% -7,332 -22.3% 33,208 33,596 416 1.3% 7,982 31.2% 388 1.2% -40%
September 33,215 32,981 23,045 -10,170 -30.6% -9,936 -30.1% 33,298 31,213 -2,003 -6.0% 8,168 35.4% -2,086 -6.3%
October 31,952 31,409 21,315 -10,637 -33.3% -10,095 -32.1% 31,493 29,427 -2,525 -7.9% 8,112 38.1% -2,066 -6.6% Actual
November 29,429 28,929 15,452 -13,976 -47.5% -13,476 -46.6% 29,171 26,349 -3,079 -10.5% 10,897 70.5% -2,822 -9.7%
-60% Scenario 1
December 29,016 28,366 16,034 -12,983 -44.7% -12,332 -43.5% 28,628 26,083 -2,933 -10.1% 10,049 62.7% -2,545 -8.9%
1Q 87,870 86,606 79,350 -8,520 -9.7% -7,256 -8.4% 86,612 42,728 -45,142 -51.4% -36,622 -46.2% -43,884 -50.7% Scenario 1a
2Q 95,263 94,666 18,299 -76,964 -80.8% -76,367 -80.7% 94,583 64,007 -31,255 -32.8% 45,708 249.8% -30,575 -32.3% Scenario 2
3Q 99,573 98,870 69,282 -30,291 -30.4% -29,588 -29.9% 99,857 97,429 -2,143 -2.2% 28,148 40.6% -2,428 -2.4% -80%
4Q 90,397 88,704 52,801 -37,596 -41.6% -35,903 -40.5% 89,292 81,859 -8,538 -9.4% 29,058 55.0% -7,434 -8.3% Scenario 2a
Total 373,102 368,846 219,731 -153,371 -41.1% -149,115 -40.4% 370,345 286,024 -87,079 -23.3% 66,292 30.2% -84,321 -22.8% Reference
-100%
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Europe Domestic

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Nov 20
Jan 21

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 28,676 21,120 21,120 21,120 21,120 21,120 -8,645 -29.0% 6,306 42.6% -7,557 -26.4%
February 28,412 19,079 19,079 19,079 19,079 19,079 -8,301 -30.3% 6,409 50.6% -9,334 -32.9%
March 29,422 21,704 21,704 21,704 21,704 21,704 -9,022 -29.4% 6,458 42.4% -7,718 -26.2%
April 29,680 23,558 23,558 23,558 23,558 23,558 -6,622 -21.9% 6,592 38.9% -6,122 -20.6%
May 32,185 27,760 27,760 27,760 27,760 27,760 -4,530 -14.0% 7,603 37.7% -4,425 -13.7%
June 32,667 28,871 28,871 28,871 28,871 28,871 -3,921 -12.0% 1,987 7.4% -3,796 -11.6%
July 33,681 29,484 29,484 29,484 29,484 29,484 -3,693 -11.1% -3,136 -9.6% -4,197 -12.5%
August 33,420 30,388 30,388 30,388 30,388 30,388 -2,793 -8.4% -3,209 -9.6% -3,032 -9.1%
September 33,555 27,942 27,942 27,942 27,942 27,942 -5,273 -15.9% -3,271 -10.5% -5,613 -16.7%
October 31,497 26,012 26,012 26,012 26,012 26,012 -5,940 -18.6% -3,415 -11.6% -5,485 -17.4%
November 29,309 21,180 21,180 21,180 21,180 21,180 -8,249 -28.0% -5,170 -19.6% -8,129 -27.7%
December 28,751 22,188 22,632 22,139 22,108 16,944 -6,908 to -6,384 -23.8% to -22.0% -3,975 to -3,451 -15.2% to -13.2% -6,643 to -6,119 -23.1% to -21.3%
1Q 86,510 61,902 61,902 61,902 61,902 61,902 -25,968 -29.6% 19,174 44.9% -24,608 -28.4%
2Q 94,532 80,189 80,189 80,189 80,189 80,189 -15,074 -15.8% 16,182 25.3% -14,343 -15.2%
3Q 100,655 87,814 87,814 87,814 87,814 87,814 -11,759 -11.8% -9,616 -9.9% -12,841 -12.8%
4Q 89,557 69,379 69,823 69,330 69,299 64,135 -21,098 to -20,574 -23.3% to -22.8% -12,560 to -12,035 -15.3% to -14.7% -20,258 to -19,733 -22.6% to -22.0%
Total 371,254 299,284 299,728 299,235 299,204 294,040 -73,898 to -73,374 -19.8% to -19.7% 13,180 to 13,705 4.6% to 4.8% -72,050 to -71,526 -19.4% to -19.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 72


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Europe International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Europe (Total)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 99,424 99,546 96,154 -3,270 -3.3% -3,393 -3.4% 100,207 30,906 -68,517 -68.9% -65,247 -67.9% -69,301 -69.2%
February 91,280 94,949 90,084 -1,196 -1.3% -4,865 -5.1% 97,505 23,530 -67,751 -74.2% -66,555 -73.9% -73,975 -75.9%
March 103,713 106,297 60,825 -42,889 -41.4% -45,472 -42.8% 107,255 28,404 -75,309 -72.6% -32,421 -53.3% -78,851 -73.5%
April 114,217 116,481 7,288 -106,929 -93.6% -109,193 -93.7% 119,378 33,816 -80,401 -70.4% 26,528 364.0% -85,562 -71.7%
-20%
May 125,680 126,177 8,771 -116,910 -93.0% -117,407 -93.0% 127,423 41,225 -84,456 -67.2% 32,454 370.0% -86,198 -67.6%
June 131,474 134,735 19,636 -111,839 -85.1% -115,100 -85.4% 139,413 60,841 -70,633 -53.7% 41,205 209.8% -78,572 -56.4%
July 138,429 141,260 50,182 -88,246 -63.7% -91,077 -64.5% 145,980 88,955 -49,473 -35.7% 38,773 77.3% -57,025 -39.1% -40%
August 138,809 140,979 67,518 -71,292 -51.4% -73,461 -52.1% 145,073 97,682 -41,128 -29.6% 30,164 44.7% -47,392 -32.7%
September 132,082 134,047 56,178 -75,904 -57.5% -77,869 -58.1% 137,678 91,352 -40,730 -30.8% 35,174 62.6% -46,325 -33.6%
Actual
October 124,480 124,119 49,091 -75,389 -60.6% -75,028 -60.4% 125,450 89,484 -34,996 -28.1% 40,393 82.3% -35,966 -28.7%
-60% Scenario 1
November 99,913 99,495 30,601 -69,312 -69.4% -68,894 -69.2% 100,414 73,886 -26,026 -26.0% 43,286 141.5% -26,528 -26.4%
December 100,849 102,652 33,301 -67,548 -67.0% -69,350 -67.6% 105,639 76,029 -24,820 -24.6% 42,728 128.3% -29,610 -28.0% Scenario 1a
1Q 294,417 300,792 247,063 -47,355 -16.1% -53,729 -17.9% 304,967 82,840 -211,578 -71.9% -164,223 -66.5% -222,127 -72.8% Scenario 2
2Q 371,372 377,394 35,694 -335,677 -90.4% -341,700 -90.5% 386,213 135,881 -235,490 -63.4% 100,187 280.7% -250,332 -64.8% -80%
3Q 409,320 416,286 173,878 -235,442 -57.5% -242,408 -58.2% 428,731 277,989 -131,331 -32.1% 104,111 59.9% -150,742 -35.2%
Scenario 2a
4Q 325,242 326,266 112,993 -212,249 -65.3% -213,272 -65.4% 331,503 239,399 -85,843 -26.4% 126,406 111.9% -92,104 -27.8% Reference
Total 1,400,351 1,420,737 569,628 -830,723 -59.3% -851,108 -59.9% 1,451,414 736,109 -664,242 -47.4% 166,481 29.2% -715,304 -49.3% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Nov 20
Jan 21

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Europe International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 100,968 62,003 62,003 62,003 62,003 62,003 -37,421 -37.6% 31,097 100.6% -38,965 -38.6%
February 100,593 57,518 57,518 57,518 57,518 57,518 -33,762 -37.0% 33,988 144.4% -43,075 -42.8%
March 108,803 70,357 70,357 70,357 70,357 70,357 -33,356 -32.2% 41,953 147.7% -38,446 -35.3%
April 122,457 86,588 86,588 86,588 86,588 86,588 -27,629 -24.2% 52,772 156.1% -35,869 -29.3%
May 128,752 99,845 99,845 99,845 99,845 99,845 -25,835 -20.6% 58,621 142.2% -28,907 -22.5%
June 144,281 104,773 104,773 104,773 104,773 104,773 -26,701 -20.3% 43,932 72.2% -39,508 -27.4%
July 150,732 112,452 112,452 112,452 112,452 112,452 -25,977 -18.8% 23,497 26.4% -38,280 -25.4%
August 149,145 113,940 113,940 113,940 113,940 113,940 -24,870 -17.9% 16,258 16.6% -35,205 -23.6%
September 141,300 103,055 103,055 103,055 103,055 103,055 -29,027 -22.0% 11,702 12.8% -38,245 -27.1%
October 126,667 98,329 98,329 98,329 98,329 98,329 -26,151 -21.0% 8,845 9.9% -28,338 -22.4%
November 101,243 72,793 72,793 72,793 72,793 72,793 -27,119 -27.1% -1,093 -1.5% -28,449 -28.1%
December 108,678 75,267 77,846 75,253 75,127 65,574 -25,723 to -23,003 -25.5% to -22.8% -902 to 1,817 -1.2% to 2.4% -33,552 to -30,832 -30.9% to -28.4%
1Q 310,365 189,878 189,878 189,878 189,878 189,878 -104,539 -35.5% 107,038 129.2% -120,487 -38.8%
2Q 395,490 291,206 291,206 291,206 291,206 291,206 -80,165 -21.6% 155,325 114.3% -104,284 -26.4%
3Q 441,177 329,446 329,446 329,446 329,446 329,446 -79,874 -19.5% 51,457 18.5% -111,731 -25.3%
4Q 336,588 246,389 248,969 246,375 246,249 236,697 -78,993 to -76,273 -24.3% to -23.5% 6,850 to 9,569 2.9% to 4.0% -90,339 to -87,620 -26.8% to -26.0%
Total 1,483,620 1,056,920 1,059,499 1,056,906 1,056,780 1,047,227 -343,571 to -340,852 -24.5% to -24.3% 320,670 to 323,390 43.6% to 43.9% -426,841 to -424,121 -28.8% to -28.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 73


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Europe International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Europe (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 54,971 55,834 54,628 -342 -0.6% -1,206 -2.2% 56,202 7,859 -47,112 -85.7% -46,769 -85.6% -48,343 -86.0%
February 51,262 54,715 50,081 -1,180 -2.3% -4,634 -8.5% 55,857 4,805 -46,457 -90.6% -45,276 -90.4% -51,052 -91.4%
March 59,889 62,928 26,672 -33,217 -55.5% -36,256 -57.6% 63,570 6,182 -53,707 -89.7% -20,490 -76.8% -57,389 -90.3%
April 70,512 73,026 1,061 -69,451 -98.5% -71,965 -98.5% 75,108 7,798 -62,714 -88.9% 6,737 635.1% -67,310 -89.6% -20%
May 76,436 77,528 1,726 -74,710 -97.7% -75,802 -97.8% 77,898 10,596 -65,841 -86.1% 8,869 513.8% -67,302 -86.4%
June 84,132 87,728 4,459 -79,673 -94.7% -83,269 -94.9% 91,015 19,835 -64,296 -76.4% 15,377 344.9% -71,180 -78.2%
July 91,216 94,520 15,903 -75,313 -82.6% -78,617 -83.2% 97,561 37,329 -53,887 -59.1% 21,426 134.7% -60,232 -61.7% -40%
August 91,988 94,733 23,358 -68,630 -74.6% -71,375 -75.3% 97,377 44,099 -47,888 -52.1% 20,741 88.8% -53,278 -54.7%
September 83,010 85,459 17,099 -65,911 -79.4% -68,361 -80.0% 87,610 39,692 -43,318 -52.2% 22,593 132.1% -47,918 -54.7%
October 77,076 77,746 13,548 -63,528 -82.4% -64,199 -82.6% 78,195 41,345 -35,731 -46.4% 27,797 205.2% -36,850 -47.1%
November 57,498 57,945 6,965 -50,533 -87.9% -50,979 -88.0% 58,084 33,680 -23,818 -41.4% 26,715 383.5% -24,405 -42.0%
-60% Actual
December 58,935 61,360 9,037 -49,898 -84.7% -52,323 -85.3% 63,174 35,438 -23,497 -39.9% 26,401 292.1% -27,736 -43.9% Scenario 1
1Q 166,121 173,478 131,381 -34,739 -20.9% -42,096 -24.3% 175,629 18,846 -147,275 -88.7% -112,536 -85.7% -156,784 -89.3% Scenario 1a
2Q 231,080 238,282 7,246 -223,834 -96.9% -231,036 -97.0% 244,021 38,229 -192,851 -83.5% 30,983 427.6% -205,792 -84.3% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 266,213 274,712 56,360 -209,853 -78.8% -218,352 -79.5% 282,548 121,120 -145,093 -54.5% 64,760 114.9% -161,427 -57.1%
Scenario 2a
4Q 193,509 197,051 29,550 -163,959 -84.7% -167,501 -85.0% 199,453 110,462 -83,046 -42.9% 80,913 273.8% -88,990 -44.6%
Reference
Total 856,922 883,523 224,537 -632,385 -73.8% -658,986 -74.6% 901,651 288,657 -568,265 -66.3% 64,120 28.6% -612,993 -68.0%
-100%
Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
Passenger Number (thousand) - Europe International 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 57,257 26,189 26,189 26,189 26,189 26,189 -28,781 -52.4% 18,330 233.2% -31,067 -54.3%
February 58,137 26,725 26,725 26,725 26,725 26,725 -24,536 -47.9% 21,920 456.2% -31,411 -54.0%
March 65,405 35,047 35,047 35,047 35,047 35,047 -24,842 -41.5% 28,865 466.9% -30,358 -46.4%
April 78,139 49,452 49,452 49,452 49,452 49,452 -21,060 -29.9% 41,654 534.2% -28,686 -36.7%
May 79,242 57,559 57,559 57,559 57,559 57,559 -18,878 -24.7% 46,963 443.2% -21,683 -27.4%
June 95,520 64,795 64,795 64,795 64,795 64,795 -19,337 -23.0% 44,959 226.7% -30,726 -32.2%
July 101,805 71,329 71,329 71,329 71,329 71,329 -19,886 -21.8% 34,000 91.1% -30,475 -29.9%
August 101,148 70,768 70,768 70,768 70,768 70,768 -21,219 -23.1% 26,669 60.5% -30,380 -30.0%
September 90,814 62,627 62,627 62,627 62,627 62,627 -20,383 -24.6% 22,935 57.8% -28,188 -31.0%
October 79,509 60,684 60,684 60,684 60,684 60,684 -16,392 -21.3% 19,339 46.8% -18,825 -23.7%
November 58,869 42,666 42,666 42,666 42,666 42,666 -14,831 -25.8% 8,987 26.7% -16,203 -27.5%
December 65,830 43,169 45,034 43,198 43,120 40,506 -15,814 to -13,900 -26.8% to -23.6% 7,682 to 9,596 21.7% to 27.1% -22,709 to -20,795 -34.5% to -31.6%
1Q 180,799 87,962 87,962 87,962 87,962 87,962 -78,159 -47.0% 69,116 366.8% -92,837 -51.3%
2Q 252,901 171,806 171,806 171,806 171,806 171,806 -59,274 -25.7% 133,577 349.4% -81,095 -32.1%
3Q 293,767 204,725 204,725 204,725 204,725 204,725 -61,489 -23.1% 83,604 69.0% -89,043 -30.3%
4Q 204,208 146,520 148,385 146,548 146,471 143,857 -47,038 to -45,124 -24.3% to -23.3% 36,009 to 37,923 32.6% to 34.3% -57,737 to -55,823 -28.3% to -27.3%
Total 931,675 611,012 612,877 611,040 610,963 608,349 -245,959 to -244,045 -28.7% to -28.5% 322,306 to 324,220 111.7% to 112.3% -320,712 to -318,798 -34.4% to -34.2%

Source: ICAO estimates 74


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Europe Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 Europe (Domestic)
January 22,558 22,307 23,319 761 3.4% 1,012 4.5% 22,102 10,292 -12,266 -54.4% -13,027 -55.9% -11,810 -53.4%
February 21,426 21,417 21,730 304 1.4% 313 1.5% 21,955 9,712 -11,714 -54.7% -12,018 -55.3% -12,243 -55.8% 0%
March 24,711 24,386 13,224 -11,487 -46.5% -11,162 -45.8% 24,112 12,760 -11,951 -48.4% -464 -3.5% -11,352 -47.1%
April 24,621 24,655 1,661 -22,960 -93.3% -22,995 -93.3% 24,502 13,305 -11,316 -46.0% 11,644 701.2% -11,197 -45.7%
May 26,074 26,045 1,961 -24,113 -92.5% -24,084 -92.5% 26,121 15,558 -10,516 -40.3% 13,597 693.3% -10,563 -40.4% -20%
June 27,861 27,830 7,173 -20,688 -74.3% -20,657 -74.2% 27,902 21,997 -5,864 -21.0% 14,823 206.6% -5,906 -21.2%
July 28,906 28,874 16,346 -12,560 -43.5% -12,528 -43.4% 29,254 27,684 -1,222 -4.2% 11,338 69.4% -1,571 -5.4%
August 28,485 28,453 21,444 -7,041 -24.7% -7,009 -24.6% 28,702 28,254 -232 -0.8% 6,809 31.8% -449 -1.6%
September 27,375 27,345 18,055 -9,320 -34.0% -9,290 -34.0% 27,630 24,418 -2,958 -10.8% 6,363 35.2% -3,212 -11.6% -40%
October 26,262 25,970 15,175 -11,087 -42.2% -10,795 -41.6% 26,060 23,065 -3,196 -12.2% 7,890 52.0% -2,994 -11.5%
November 23,434 23,173 10,089 -13,345 -56.9% -13,085 -56.5% 23,386 20,207 -3,227 -13.8% 10,118 100.3% -3,179 -13.6%
December 22,929 22,549 10,994 -11,935 -52.1% -11,555 -51.2% 22,776 20,236 -2,694 -11.7% 9,241 84.1% -2,540 -11.2% -60% Actual
1Q 68,695 68,111 58,273 -10,422 -15.2% -9,838 -14.4% 68,169 32,763 -35,932 -52.3% -25,510 -43.8% -35,406 -51.9% Scenario 1
2Q 78,556 78,530 10,795 -67,761 -86.3% -67,735 -86.3% 78,525 50,859 -27,697 -35.3% 40,064 371.1% -27,666 -35.2% Scenario 1a
3Q 84,767 84,672 55,845 -28,921 -34.1% -28,827 -34.0% 85,586 80,355 -4,412 -5.2% 24,510 43.9% -5,231 -6.1%
-80% Scenario 2
4Q 72,625 71,693 36,258 -36,367 -50.1% -35,435 -49.4% 72,222 63,508 -9,117 -12.6% 27,250 75.2% -8,714 -12.1%
Scenario 2a
Total 304,642 303,006 161,171 -143,471 -47.1% -141,834 -46.8% 304,502 227,485 -77,157 -25.3% 66,314 41.1% -77,017 -25.3%
Reference
Passenger Number (thousand) - Europe Domestic -100%
Year 2022 Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 21,971 15,311 15,311 15,311 15,311 15,311 -7,247 -32.1% 5,020 48.8% -6,660 -30.3%
February 22,478 14,010 14,010 14,010 14,010 14,010 -7,416 -34.6% 4,298 44.3% -8,468 -37.7%
March 23,921 16,359 16,359 16,359 16,359 16,359 -8,351 -33.8% 3,600 28.2% -7,562 -31.6%
April 24,478 18,373 18,373 18,373 18,373 18,373 -6,248 -25.4% 5,068 38.1% -6,106 -24.9%
May 26,274 21,972 21,972 21,972 21,972 21,972 -4,102 -15.7% 6,414 41.2% -4,302 -16.4%
June 28,059 23,973 23,973 23,973 23,973 23,973 -3,888 -14.0% 1,976 9.0% -4,086 -14.6%
July 29,667 25,366 25,366 25,366 25,366 25,366 -3,540 -12.2% -2,318 -8.4% -4,301 -14.5%
August 29,005 26,316 26,316 26,316 26,316 26,316 -2,170 -7.6% -1,938 -6.9% -2,689 -9.3%
September 27,958 23,652 23,652 23,652 23,652 23,652 -3,723 -13.6% -766 -3.1% -4,306 -15.4%
October 26,171 21,554 21,554 21,554 21,554 21,554 -4,708 -17.9% -1,511 -6.6% -4,617 -17.6%
November 23,594 17,445 17,445 17,445 17,445 17,445 -5,989 -25.6% -2,762 -13.7% -6,149 -26.1%
December 22,969 17,501 17,800 17,462 17,438 13,528 -5,492 to -5,129 -24.0% to -22.4% -2,798 to -2,435 -13.8% to -12.0% -5,531 to -5,169 -24.1% to -22.5%
1Q 68,370 45,681 45,681 45,681 45,681 45,681 -23,014 -33.5% 12,917 39.4% -22,690 -33.2%
2Q 78,811 64,318 64,318 64,318 64,318 64,318 -14,239 -18.1% 13,458 26.5% -14,493 -18.4%
3Q 86,630 75,334 75,334 75,334 75,334 75,334 -9,433 -11.1% -5,021 -6.2% -11,296 -13.0%
4Q 72,733 56,499 56,799 56,461 56,436 52,526 -16,189 to -15,826 -22.3% to -21.8% -7,072 to -6,709 -11.1% to -10.6% -16,297 to -15,935 -22.4% to -21.9%
Total 306,544 241,831 242,131 241,793 241,768 237,858 -62,874 to -62,512 -20.6% to -20.5% 14,283 to 14,645 6.3% to 6.4% -64,776 to -64,414 -21.1% to -21.0%

Source: ICAO estimates 75


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Europe International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Europe (Total)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 77,528 78,142 77,947 419 0.5% -194 -0.2% 78,303 18,151 -59,378 -76.6% -59,797 -76.7% -60,153 -76.8%
February 72,688 76,133 71,811 -877 -1.2% -4,321 -5.7% 77,812 14,517 -58,171 -80.0% -57,295 -79.8% -63,295 -81.3%
March 84,599 87,314 39,896 -44,703 -52.8% -47,418 -54.3% 87,682 18,941 -65,658 -77.6% -20,955 -52.5% -68,741 -78.4%
April 95,133 97,681 2,722 -92,411 -97.1% -94,960 -97.2% 99,610 21,103 -74,030 -77.8% 18,382 675.4% -78,507 -78.8% -20%
May 102,510 103,573 3,687 -98,823 -96.4% -99,886 -96.4% 104,019 26,153 -76,357 -74.5% 22,466 609.3% -77,866 -74.9%
June 111,993 115,558 11,632 -100,361 -89.6% -103,926 -89.9% 118,917 41,832 -70,161 -62.6% 30,200 259.6% -77,085 -64.8%
July 120,122 123,394 32,249 -87,873 -73.2% -91,145 -73.9% 126,815 65,013 -55,109 -45.9% 32,764 101.6% -61,802 -48.7% -40%
August 120,473 123,186 44,802 -75,671 -62.8% -78,384 -63.6% 126,079 72,353 -48,120 -39.9% 27,551 61.5% -53,726 -42.6%
September 110,385 112,804 35,154 -75,231 -68.2% -77,650 -68.8% 115,240 64,110 -46,275 -41.9% 28,955 82.4% -51,130 -44.4%
October 103,338 103,716 28,723 -74,615 -72.2% -74,993 -72.3% 104,254 64,410 -38,928 -37.7% 35,687 124.2% -39,844 -38.2%
November 80,932 81,118 17,054 -63,878 -78.9% -64,064 -79.0% 81,471 53,887 -27,045 -33.4% 36,833 216.0% -27,584 -33.9% -60% Actual
December 81,864 83,909 20,031 -61,833 -75.5% -63,878 -76.1% 85,949 55,674 -26,190 -32.0% 35,642 177.9% -30,276 -35.2% Scenario 1
1Q 234,816 241,589 189,655 -45,161 -19.2% -51,934 -21.5% 243,798 51,609 -183,207 -78.0% -138,046 -72.8% -192,189 -78.8% Scenario 1a
2Q 309,636 316,812 18,041 -291,595 -94.2% -298,771 -94.3% 322,547 89,088 -220,548 -71.2% 71,047 393.8% -233,458 -72.4%
-80% Scenario 2
3Q 350,980 359,384 112,205 -238,774 -68.0% -247,179 -68.8% 368,134 201,475 -149,504 -42.6% 89,270 79.6% -166,659 -45.3%
Scenario 2a
4Q 266,133 268,743 65,807 -200,326 -75.3% -202,936 -75.5% 271,674 173,970 -92,163 -34.6% 108,163 164.4% -97,704 -36.0%
Total 1,161,564 1,186,528 385,708 -775,856 -66.8% -800,820 -67.5% 1,206,153 516,142 -645,422 -55.6% 130,434 33.8% -690,010 -57.2% Reference
-100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Europe International + Domestic Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
Year 2022 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 79,228 41,501 41,501 41,501 41,501 41,501 -36,028 -46.5% 23,350 128.6% -37,728 -47.6%
February 80,615 40,735 40,735 40,735 40,735 40,735 -31,953 -44.0% 26,219 180.6% -39,879 -49.5%
March 89,326 51,406 51,406 51,406 51,406 51,406 -33,193 -39.2% 32,465 171.4% -37,920 -42.5%
April 102,617 67,825 67,825 67,825 67,825 67,825 -27,308 -28.7% 46,722 221.4% -34,792 -33.9%
May 105,516 79,531 79,531 79,531 79,531 79,531 -22,980 -22.4% 53,377 204.1% -25,985 -24.6%
June 123,579 88,768 88,768 88,768 88,768 88,768 -23,225 -20.7% 46,936 112.2% -34,811 -28.2%
July 131,471 96,695 96,695 96,695 96,695 96,695 -23,426 -19.5% 31,682 48.7% -34,776 -26.5%
August 130,153 97,084 97,084 97,084 97,084 97,084 -23,389 -19.4% 24,731 34.2% -33,069 -25.4%
September 118,772 86,279 86,279 86,279 86,279 86,279 -24,106 -21.8% 22,169 34.6% -32,494 -27.4%
October 105,680 82,238 82,238 82,238 82,238 82,238 -21,099 -20.4% 17,828 27.7% -23,442 -22.2%
November 82,463 60,111 60,111 60,111 60,111 60,111 -20,820 -25.7% 6,225 11.6% -22,352 -27.1%
December 88,798 60,670 62,835 60,660 60,558 54,033 -21,306 to -19,030 -26.0% to -23.2% 4,884 to 7,161 8.8% to 12.9% -28,240 to -25,964 -31.8% to -29.2%
1Q 249,169 133,642 133,642 133,642 133,642 133,642 -101,173 -43.1% 82,034 159.0% -115,527 -46.4%
2Q 331,712 236,123 236,123 236,123 236,123 236,123 -73,513 -23.7% 147,035 165.0% -95,588 -28.8%
3Q 380,397 280,058 280,058 280,058 280,058 280,058 -70,922 -20.2% 78,583 39.0% -100,339 -26.4%
4Q 276,941 203,019 205,184 203,009 202,907 196,383 -63,226 to -60,949 -23.8% to -22.9% 28,937 to 31,214 16.6% to 17.9% -74,034 to -71,757 -26.7% to -25.9%
Total 1,238,219 852,843 855,008 852,833 852,731 846,206 -308,834 to -306,557 -26.6% to -26.4% 336,588 to 338,865 65.2% to 65.7% -385,488 to -383,211 -31.1% to -30.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 76


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Europe International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Europe (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0
January 8,107 8,212 8,081 -26 -0.3% -131 -1.6% 8,253 1,248 -6,859 -84.6% -6,833 -84.6% -7,005 -84.9%
February 7,484 7,926 7,212 -271 -3.6% -714 -9.0% 8,033 813 -6,671 -89.1% -6,400 -88.7% -7,220 -89.9%
March 8,721 9,019 3,978 -4,743 -54.4% -5,041 -55.9% 9,072 1,013 -7,708 -88.4% -2,965 -74.5% -8,058 -88.8% -2
April 9,880 10,209 181 -9,699 -98.2% -10,028 -98.2% 10,518 1,193 -8,688 -87.9% 1,012 558.7% -9,325 -88.7%
May 10,507 10,719 266 -10,241 -97.5% -10,453 -97.5% 10,860 1,532 -8,975 -85.4% 1,266 476.0% -9,328 -85.9%
-4

Billions (USD)
June 11,543 11,987 601 -10,942 -94.8% -11,386 -95.0% 12,445 2,612 -8,930 -77.4% 2,011 334.6% -9,832 -79.0%
July 12,562 13,012 1,897 -10,665 -84.9% -11,115 -85.4% 13,489 4,672 -7,890 -62.8% 2,775 146.3% -8,817 -65.4%
August 12,687 13,066 2,755 -9,932 -78.3% -10,311 -78.9% 13,497 5,477 -7,210 -56.8% 2,722 98.8% -8,020 -59.4%
September 11,373 11,704 2,100 -9,273 -81.5% -9,604 -82.1% 12,047 4,943 -6,430 -56.5% 2,843 135.4% -7,104 -59.0% -6
October 10,658 10,776 1,773 -8,885 -83.4% -9,002 -83.5% 10,946 5,215 -5,443 -51.1% 3,442 194.1% -5,731 -52.4%
Actual
November 8,352 8,429 1,055 -7,296 -87.4% -7,374 -87.5% 8,544 4,506 -3,845 -46.0% 3,451 327.0% -4,038 -47.3%
-8 Scenario 1
December 8,652 8,955 1,375 -7,277 -84.1% -7,580 -84.7% 9,258 4,838 -3,814 -44.1% 3,463 252.0% -4,420 -47.7%
1Q 24,312 25,157 19,272 -5,040 -20.7% -5,885 -23.4% 25,357 3,074 -21,238 -87.4% -16,198 -84.1% -22,284 -87.9%
Scenario 1a
2Q 31,930 32,915 1,048 -30,882 -96.7% -31,867 -96.8% 33,822 5,337 -26,593 -83.3% 4,289 409.2% -28,486 -84.2% Scenario 2
-10
3Q 36,622 37,782 6,753 -29,870 -81.6% -31,030 -82.1% 39,033 15,092 -21,530 -58.8% 8,340 123.5% -23,941 -61.3% Scenario 2a
4Q 27,661 28,160 4,203 -23,458 -84.8% -23,956 -85.1% 28,748 14,559 -13,102 -47.4% 10,356 246.4% -14,189 -49.4% Reference
Total 120,525 124,014 31,275 -89,249 -74.1% -92,738 -74.8% 126,961 38,062 -82,463 -68.4% 6,787 21.7% -88,899 -70.0% -12
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Europe International Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 8,379 3,877 3,877 3,877 3,877 3,877 -4,230 -52.2% 2,629 210.6% -4,503 -53.7%
February 8,284 3,877 3,877 3,877 3,877 3,877 -3,606 -48.2% 3,065 377.2% -4,407 -53.2%
March 9,255 5,008 5,008 5,008 5,008 5,008 -3,713 -42.6% 3,995 394.3% -4,246 -45.9%
April 10,928 6,737 6,737 6,737 6,737 6,737 -3,144 -31.8% 5,544 464.7% -4,192 -38.4%
May 11,111 7,791 7,791 7,791 7,791 7,791 -2,715 -25.8% 6,260 408.7% -3,320 -29.9%
June 13,031 8,785 8,785 8,785 8,785 8,785 -2,757 -23.9% 6,173 236.3% -4,246 -32.6%
July 14,094 9,749 9,749 9,749 9,749 9,749 -2,813 -22.4% 5,077 108.7% -4,345 -30.8%
August 14,045 9,642 9,642 9,642 9,642 9,642 -3,045 -24.0% 4,165 76.0% -4,403 -31.4%
September 12,502 8,599 8,599 8,599 8,599 8,599 -2,774 -24.4% 3,655 73.9% -3,903 -31.2%
October 11,204 8,386 8,386 8,386 8,386 8,386 -2,272 -21.3% 3,170 60.8% -2,818 -25.1%
November 8,722 6,162 6,162 6,162 6,162 6,162 -2,190 -26.2% 1,656 36.7% -2,560 -29.4%
December 9,648 6,230 6,501 6,234 6,223 5,840 -2,429 to -2,150 -28.1% to -24.9% 1,385 to 1,664 28.6% to 34.4% -3,426 to -3,147 -35.5% to -32.6%
1Q 25,918 12,762 12,762 12,762 12,762 12,762 -11,549 -47.5% 9,689 315.2% -13,156 -50.8%
2Q 35,071 23,313 23,313 23,313 23,313 23,313 -8,617 -27.0% 17,976 336.8% -11,758 -33.5%
3Q 40,641 27,990 27,990 27,990 27,990 27,990 -8,632 -23.6% 12,898 85.5% -12,652 -31.1%
4Q 29,574 20,777 21,049 20,782 20,770 20,388 -6,891 to -6,612 -24.9% to -23.9% 6,211 to 6,490 42.7% to 44.6% -8,803 to -8,524 -29.8% to -28.8%
Total 131,204 84,843 85,114 84,847 84,836 84,454 -35,689 to -35,410 -29.6% to -29.4% 46,774 to 47,053 122.9% to 123.6% -46,368 to -46,089 -35.3% to -35.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 77


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Europe Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
Europe (Domestic)
January 1,855 1,834 1,917 63 3.4% 83 4.5% 1,817 846 -1,008 -54.4% -1,071 -55.9% -971 -53.4%
February 1,762 1,761 1,787 25 1.4% 26 1.5% 1,805 798 -963 -54.7% -988 -55.3% -1,007 -55.8%
0.0
March 2,032 2,005 1,087 -944 -46.5% -918 -45.8% 1,982 1,049 -983 -48.4% -38 -3.5% -933 -47.1%
April 2,024 2,027 137 -1,888 -93.3% -1,891 -93.3% 2,014 1,094 -930 -46.0% 957 701.2% -921 -45.7%
May 2,144 2,141 161 -1,982 -92.5% -1,980 -92.5% 2,148 1,279 -865 -40.3% 1,118 693.3% -868 -40.4%
June 2,291 2,288 590 -1,701 -74.3% -1,698 -74.2% 2,294 1,808 -482 -21.0% 1,219 206.6% -486 -21.2% -0.5

Billions (USD)
July 2,376 2,374 1,344 -1,033 -43.5% -1,030 -43.4% 2,405 2,276 -100 -4.2% 932 69.4% -129 -5.4%
August 2,342 2,339 1,763 -579 -24.7% -576 -24.6% 2,360 2,323 -19 -0.8% 560 31.8% -37 -1.6%
September 2,251 2,248 1,484 -766 -34.0% -764 -34.0% 2,272 2,008 -243 -10.8% 523 35.2% -264 -11.6%
October 2,159 2,135 1,248 -911 -42.2% -888 -41.6% 2,142 1,896 -263 -12.2% 649 52.0% -246 -11.5% -1.0
November 1,927 1,905 829 -1,097 -56.9% -1,076 -56.5% 1,923 1,661 -265 -13.8% 832 100.3% -261 -13.6%
Actual
December 1,885 1,854 904 -981 -52.1% -950 -51.2% 1,873 1,664 -221 -11.7% 760 84.1% -209 -11.2%
1Q 5,648 5,600 4,791 -857 -15.2% -809 -14.4% 5,605 2,694 -2,954 -52.3% -2,097 -43.8% -2,911 -51.9%
Scenario 1
2Q 6,458 6,456 888 -5,571 -86.3% -5,569 -86.3% 6,456 4,181 -2,277 -35.3% 3,294 371.1% -2,275 -35.2% -1.5 Scenario 1a
3Q 6,969 6,961 4,591 -2,378 -34.1% -2,370 -34.0% 7,036 6,606 -363 -5.2% 2,015 43.9% -430 -6.1% Scenario 2
4Q 5,971 5,894 2,981 -2,990 -50.1% -2,913 -49.4% 5,938 5,221 -750 -12.6% 2,240 75.2% -716 -12.1% Scenario 2a
Total 25,046 24,912 13,251 -11,795 -47.1% -11,661 -46.8% 25,035 18,703 -6,343 -25.3% 5,452 41.1% -6,332 -25.3% Reference
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Europe Domestic -2.0

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 1,806 1,259 1,259 1,259 1,259 1,259 -596 -32.1% 413 48.8% -548 -30.3%
February 1,848 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,152 -610 -34.6% 353 44.3% -696 -37.7%
March 1,967 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345 1,345 -687 -33.8% 296 28.2% -622 -31.6%
April 2,012 1,511 1,511 1,511 1,511 1,511 -514 -25.4% 417 38.1% -502 -24.9%
May 2,160 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 -337 -15.7% 527 41.2% -354 -16.4%
June 2,307 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 -320 -14.0% 162 9.0% -336 -14.6%
July 2,439 2,085 2,085 2,085 2,085 2,085 -291 -12.2% -191 -8.4% -354 -14.5%
August 2,385 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,164 -178 -7.6% -159 -6.9% -221 -9.3%
September 2,299 1,945 1,945 1,945 1,945 1,945 -306 -13.6% -63 -3.1% -354 -15.4%
October 2,152 1,772 1,772 1,772 1,772 1,772 -387 -17.9% -124 -6.6% -380 -17.6%
November 1,940 1,434 1,434 1,434 1,434 1,434 -492 -25.6% -227 -13.7% -506 -26.1%
December 1,888 1,439 1,463 1,436 1,434 1,112 -452 to -422 -24.0% to -22.4% -230 to -200 -13.8% to -12.0% -455 to -425 -24.1% to -22.5%
1Q 5,621 3,756 3,756 3,756 3,756 3,756 -1,892 -33.5% 1,062 39.4% -1,865 -33.2%
2Q 6,479 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 -1,171 -18.1% 1,106 26.5% -1,192 -18.4%
3Q 7,122 6,194 6,194 6,194 6,194 6,194 -776 -11.1% -413 -6.2% -929 -13.0%
4Q 5,980 4,645 4,670 4,642 4,640 4,318 -1,331 to -1,301 -22.3% to -21.8% -581 to -552 -11.1% to -10.6% -1,340 to -1,310 -22.4% to -21.9%
Total 25,203 19,882 19,907 19,879 19,877 19,555 -5,169 to -5,139 -20.6% to -20.5% 1,174 to 1,204 6.3% to 6.4% -5,326 to -5,296 -21.1% to -21.0%

Source: ICAO estimates 78


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Europe International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Europe (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0.0
January 9,962 10,046 9,998 37 0.4% -48 -0.5% 10,070 2,094 -7,868 -79.0% -7,904 -79.1% -7,976 -79.2%
February 9,245 9,687 8,999 -246 -2.7% -688 -7.1% 9,838 1,611 -7,634 -82.6% -7,388 -82.1% -8,227 -83.6%
-2.0
March 10,752 11,024 5,065 -5,687 -52.9% -5,958 -54.1% 11,054 2,062 -8,690 -80.8% -3,003 -59.3% -8,992 -81.3%
April 11,905 12,236 318 -11,587 -97.3% -11,918 -97.4% 12,532 2,287 -9,618 -80.8% 1,969 619.9% -10,245 -81.8%
May 12,650 12,860 427 -12,223 -96.6% -12,433 -96.7% 13,008 2,811 -9,840 -77.8% 2,384 558.0% -10,197 -78.4% -4.0

Billions (USD)
June 13,833 14,275 1,191 -12,642 -91.4% -13,084 -91.7% 14,739 4,421 -9,413 -68.0% 3,230 271.2% -10,318 -70.0%
July 14,939 15,386 3,241 -11,698 -78.3% -12,145 -78.9% 15,894 6,948 -7,991 -53.5% 3,707 114.4% -8,946 -56.3%
-6.0
August 15,029 15,406 4,518 -10,511 -69.9% -10,887 -70.7% 15,856 7,800 -7,229 -48.1% 3,282 72.6% -8,057 -50.8%
September 13,624 13,952 3,585 -10,039 -73.7% -10,368 -74.3% 14,319 6,951 -6,673 -49.0% 3,366 93.9% -7,368 -51.5%
October 12,817 12,911 3,021 -9,796 -76.4% -9,890 -76.6% 13,089 7,112 -5,705 -44.5% 4,091 135.4% -5,977 -45.7% -8.0
Actual
November 10,278 10,334 1,885 -8,393 -81.7% -8,450 -81.8% 10,467 6,167 -4,111 -40.0% 4,283 227.2% -4,299 -41.1%
Scenario 1
December 10,537 10,809 2,278 -8,258 -78.4% -8,530 -78.9% 11,130 6,501 -4,035 -38.3% 4,223 185.3% -4,629 -41.6% -10.0
1Q 29,959 30,757 24,062 -5,897 -19.7% -6,694 -21.8% 30,962 5,767 -24,192 -80.7% -18,295 -76.0% -25,194 -81.4%
Scenario 1a
2Q 38,388 39,371 1,936 -36,453 -95.0% -37,436 -95.1% 40,278 9,518 -28,870 -75.2% 7,583 391.7% -30,760 -76.4% Scenario 2
3Q 43,591 44,744 11,344 -32,247 -74.0% -33,400 -74.6% 46,069 21,699 -21,893 -50.2% 10,355 91.3% -24,371 -52.9%
-12.0 Scenario 2a
4Q 33,632 34,054 7,184 -26,448 -78.6% -26,870 -78.9% 34,686 19,781 -13,851 -41.2% 12,596 175.3% -14,905 -43.0% Reference
Total 145,571 148,925 44,526 -101,045 -69.4% -104,399 -70.1% 151,996 56,765 -88,806 -61.0% 12,239 27.5% -95,231 -62.7% -14.0

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Europe International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 10,186 5,136 5,136 5,136 5,136 5,136 -4,826 -48.4% 3,041 145.2% -5,050 -49.6%
February 10,132 5,029 5,029 5,029 5,029 5,029 -4,216 -45.6% 3,418 212.2% -5,103 -50.4%
March 11,221 6,353 6,353 6,353 6,353 6,353 -4,399 -40.9% 4,291 208.1% -4,868 -43.4%
April 12,941 8,247 8,247 8,247 8,247 8,247 -3,658 -30.7% 5,960 260.6% -4,694 -36.3%
May 13,271 9,598 9,598 9,598 9,598 9,598 -3,053 -24.1% 6,787 241.5% -3,674 -27.7%
June 15,338 10,756 10,756 10,756 10,756 10,756 -3,077 -22.2% 6,336 143.3% -4,582 -29.9%
July 16,533 11,835 11,835 11,835 11,835 11,835 -3,104 -20.8% 4,887 70.3% -4,698 -28.4%
August 16,430 11,805 11,805 11,805 11,805 11,805 -3,224 -21.4% 4,006 51.4% -4,624 -28.1%
September 14,801 10,543 10,543 10,543 10,543 10,543 -3,080 -22.6% 3,592 51.7% -4,258 -28.8%
October 13,355 10,158 10,158 10,158 10,158 10,158 -2,659 -20.7% 3,046 42.8% -3,197 -23.9%
November 10,662 7,596 7,596 7,596 7,596 7,596 -2,682 -26.1% 1,429 23.2% -3,066 -28.8%
December 11,536 7,668 7,965 7,669 7,656 6,953 -2,881 to -2,572 -27.3% to -24.4% 1,155 to 1,463 17.8% to 22.5% -3,880 to -3,572 -33.6% to -31.0%
1Q 31,539 16,518 16,518 16,518 16,518 16,518 -13,441 -44.9% 10,751 186.4% -15,021 -47.6%
2Q 41,550 28,601 28,601 28,601 28,601 28,601 -9,787 -25.5% 19,083 200.5% -12,949 -31.2%
3Q 47,764 34,183 34,183 34,183 34,183 34,183 -9,408 -21.6% 12,485 57.5% -13,580 -28.4%
4Q 35,553 25,422 25,719 25,423 25,410 24,707 -8,222 to -7,913 -24.4% to -23.5% 5,630 to 5,938 28.5% to 30.0% -10,143 to -9,835 -28.5% to -27.7%
Total 156,406 104,725 105,021 104,726 104,713 104,009 -40,858 to -40,550 -28.1% to -27.9% 47,948 to 48,257 84.5% to 85.0% -51,694 to -51,385 -33.1% to -32.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 79


Latin America/Caribbean

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -7.8% -14.6% -3.8% -9,170 -10.6% -5,612 -17.9% -3,558 -6.4% -1,461 -1,159 -303
2Q 2020 -89.7% -92.1% -88.5% -76,783 -92.1% -28,142 -96.2% -48,642 -89.9% -9,695 -5,640 -4,054
3Q 2020 -72.6% -80.5% -68.7% -67,731 -77.3% -26,337 -89.6% -41,394 -71.2% -8,818 -5,339 -3,479
4Q 2020 -47.6% -62.6% -40.1% -45,585 -52.5% -21,963 -76.7% -23,622 -40.6% -6,462 -4,471 -1,991
Total 2020 -54.0% -61.2% -50.1% -199,269 -57.8% -82,054 -69.2% -117,215 -51.9% -26,435 -16,609 -9,827
1Q 2021 -41.1% -54.9% -33.1% -45,042 -51.9% -23,138 -73.8% -21,905 -39.5% -6,568 -4,718 -1,850
2Q 2021 -39.5% -47.4% -35.2% -38,266 -45.9% -18,593 -63.5% -19,673 -36.4% -5,500 -3,837 -1,662
3Q 2021 -24.9% -37.3% -18.7% -25,578 -29.2% -14,491 -49.3% -11,087 -19.1% -3,994 -3,054 -940
4Q 2021 -13.9% -27.1% -7.1% -13,139 -15.1% -10,155 -35.5% -2,984 -5.1% -2,401 -2,141 -260
Total 2021 -29.8% -42.0% -23.2% -122,025 -35.4% -66,376 -55.9% -55,649 -24.6% -18,462 -13,750 -4,712
1Q 2022 -17.1% -20.5% -15.1% -17,972 -20.7% -9,349 -29.8% -8,623 -15.5% -2,701 -1,963 -738
2Q 2022 -8.0% -11.0% -6.3% -9,793 -11.7% -3,381 -11.6% -6,413 -11.9% -1,378 -830 -548
3Q 2022 -8.4% -12.5% -6.3% -7,946 -9.1% -3,277 -11.1% -4,669 -8.0% -1,200 -796 -405
4Q 2022 -6.9% to -6.5% -6.3% to -6.0% -7.2% to -6.8% -6,513 to -6,176 -7.5% to -7.1% -897 to -833 -3.1% to -2.9% -5,615 to -5,319 -9.6% to -9.1% -759 to -727 -273 to -260 -487 to -462
Total 2022 -10.1% to -10.0% -12.8% to -12.7% -8.7% to -8.6% -42,224 to -41,887 -12.3% to -12.2% -16,903 to -16,839 -14.2% to -14.2% -25,320 to -25,024 -11.2% to -11.1% -6,039 to -6,006 -3,861 to -3,848 -2,178 to -2,153

80
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month Latin America/Caribbean (International)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 13,827 13,550 12,812 -1,015 -7.3% -738 -5.4% 13,405 6,630 -7,197 -52.1% -6,182 -48.3% -6,776 -50.5% 0%
February 12,248 12,416 11,857 -391 -3.2% -559 -4.5% 12,312 5,329 -6,919 -56.5% -6,529 -55.1% -6,984 -56.7%
March 13,518 13,266 9,147 -4,371 -32.3% -4,119 -31.1% 12,957 5,899 -7,619 -56.4% -3,248 -35.5% -7,058 -54.5%
April 12,190 12,560 794 -11,396 -93.5% -11,766 -93.7% 12,830 5,699 -6,492 -53.3% 4,905 617.8% -7,131 -55.6%
-20%
May 11,806 12,262 857 -10,950 -92.7% -11,405 -93.0% 12,652 6,310 -5,496 -46.6% 5,453 636.7% -6,342 -50.1%
June 11,853 12,246 1,185 -10,668 -90.0% -11,061 -90.3% 12,528 6,866 -4,987 -42.1% 5,681 479.5% -5,662 -45.2%
July 12,827 13,124 2,242 -10,585 -82.5% -10,883 -82.9% 13,375 7,834 -4,992 -38.9% 5,593 249.5% -5,541 -41.4%
August 12,223 12,663 2,464 -9,759 -79.8% -10,198 -80.5% 13,053 7,663 -4,560 -37.3% 5,198 210.9% -5,391 -41.3% -40%
September 10,508 11,036 2,235 -8,273 -78.7% -8,801 -79.8% 11,357 6,791 -3,717 -35.4% 4,556 203.9% -4,566 -40.2%
October 10,924 10,837 3,189 -7,735 -70.8% -7,649 -70.6% 11,160 7,457 -3,467 -31.7% 4,268 133.8% -3,703 -33.2%
Actual
November 11,650 11,478 4,237 -7,413 -63.6% -7,241 -63.1% 11,922 8,418 -3,232 -27.7% 4,181 98.7% -3,504 -29.4% -60%
December 13,289 13,129 5,986 -7,304 -55.0% -7,143 -54.4% 13,634 10,257 -3,032 -22.8% 4,272 71.4% -3,377 -24.8% Scenario 1
1Q 39,592 39,232 33,816 -5,776 -14.6% -5,416 -13.8% 38,674 17,857 -21,735 -54.9% -15,959 -47.2% -20,818 -53.8% Scenario 1a
2Q 35,850 37,067 2,835 -33,015 -92.1% -34,232 -92.4% 38,010 18,875 -16,975 -47.4% 16,039 565.7% -19,136 -50.3% Scenario 2
3Q 35,558 36,823 6,941 -28,617 -80.5% -29,883 -81.2% 37,785 22,288 -13,269 -37.3% 15,348 221.1% -15,497 -41.0%
-80%
Scenario 2a
4Q 35,863 35,445 13,412 -22,451 -62.6% -22,033 -62.2% 36,716 26,132 -9,731 -27.1% 12,720 94.8% -10,584 -28.8%
Total 146,863 148,567 57,003 -89,859 -61.2% -91,564 -61.6% 151,186 85,152 -61,711 -42.0% 28,148 49.4% -66,034 -43.7% Reference
-100%
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 13,271 10,825 10,825 10,825 10,825 10,825 -3,001 -21.7% 4,196 63.3% -2,446 -18.4%
February 12,292 9,659 9,659 9,659 9,659 9,659 -2,588 -21.1% 4,331 81.3% -2,632 -21.4%
March 12,696 10,986 10,986 10,986 10,986 10,986 -2,531 -18.7% 5,088 86.3% -1,710 -13.5%
April 13,156 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 -1,346 -11.0% 5,146 90.3% -2,311 -17.6%
May 13,101 10,537 10,537 10,537 10,537 10,537 -1,269 -10.7% 4,227 67.0% -2,564 -19.6%
June 12,876 10,517 10,517 10,517 10,517 10,517 -1,336 -11.3% 3,651 53.2% -2,359 -18.3%
July 13,670 11,539 11,539 11,539 11,539 11,539 -1,287 -10.0% 3,705 47.3% -2,131 -15.6%
August 13,510 10,129 10,129 10,129 10,129 10,129 -2,094 -17.1% 2,467 32.2% -3,381 -25.0%
September 11,767 9,437 9,437 9,437 9,437 9,437 -1,071 -10.2% 2,646 39.0% -2,329 -19.8%
October 11,438 9,954 9,954 9,954 9,954 9,954 -969 -8.9% 2,498 33.5% -1,484 -13.0%
November 12,279 10,996 10,996 10,996 10,996 10,996 -654 -5.6% 2,578 30.6% -1,283 -10.4%
December 14,053 12,730 12,657 12,758 12,681 10,901 -632 to -531 -4.8% to -4.0% 2,400 to 2,501 23.4% to 24.4% -1,396 to -1,295 -9.9% to -9.2%
1Q 38,260 31,471 31,471 31,471 31,471 31,471 -8,121 -20.5% 13,614 76.2% -6,789 -17.7%
2Q 39,133 31,898 31,898 31,898 31,898 31,898 -3,951 -11.0% 13,024 69.0% -7,235 -18.5%
3Q 38,947 31,106 31,106 31,106 31,106 31,106 -4,452 -12.5% 8,818 39.6% -7,841 -20.1%
4Q 37,771 33,680 33,608 33,709 33,632 31,852 -2,256 to -2,155 -6.3% to -6.0% 7,476 to 7,576 28.6% to 29.0% -4,163 to -4,062 -11.0% to -10.8%
Total 154,110 128,155 128,083 128,183 128,106 126,327 -18,780 to -18,679 -12.8% to -12.7% 42,931 to 43,032 50.4% to 50.5% -26,027 to -25,926 -16.9% to -16.8%

Source: ICAO estimates 81


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Latin America/Caribbean (Domestic)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 24,160 25,004 25,411 1,250 5.2% 407 1.6% 25,705 17,321 -6,840 -28.3% -8,090 -31.8% -8,384 -32.6% 0%
February 21,188 22,502 22,797 1,610 7.6% 295 1.3% 22,974 13,966 -7,222 -34.1% -8,832 -38.7% -9,008 -39.2%
March 22,684 24,305 17,214 -5,471 -24.1% -7,091 -29.2% 25,493 14,259 -8,425 -37.1% -2,954 -17.2% -11,234 -44.1%
April 21,890 23,137 1,983 -19,907 -90.9% -21,154 -91.4% 24,215 13,149 -8,741 -39.9% 11,166 563.1% -11,067 -45.7% -20%
May 22,523 23,916 2,085 -20,437 -90.7% -21,830 -91.3% 24,460 14,292 -8,231 -36.5% 12,206 585.3% -10,168 -41.6%
June 21,831 23,632 3,563 -18,268 -83.7% -20,070 -84.9% 25,058 15,474 -6,357 -29.1% 11,911 334.3% -9,583 -38.2%
July 24,574 25,610 5,918 -18,657 -75.9% -19,693 -76.9% 26,785 19,028 -5,546 -22.6% 13,110 221.5% -7,757 -29.0%
August 23,674 24,449 7,254 -16,420 -69.4% -17,195 -70.3% 25,449 19,363 -4,311 -18.2% 12,108 166.9% -6,086 -23.9%
-40%
September 22,517 23,466 8,968 -13,550 -60.2% -14,498 -61.8% 24,691 19,120 -3,397 -15.1% 10,153 113.2% -5,571 -22.6%
October 23,543 24,516 12,219 -11,324 -48.1% -12,297 -50.2% 25,521 20,458 -3,085 -13.1% 8,239 67.4% -5,063 -19.8% Actual
November 22,909 23,677 13,852 -9,057 -39.5% -9,825 -41.5% 24,569 21,589 -1,320 -5.8% 7,737 55.9% -2,980 -12.1% -60% Scenario 1
December 24,372 25,078 16,377 -7,995 -32.8% -8,701 -34.7% 25,763 23,731 -641 -2.6% 7,354 44.9% -2,032 -7.9%
Scenario 1a
1Q 68,032 71,811 65,422 -2,611 -3.8% -6,389 -8.9% 74,171 45,545 -22,487 -33.1% -19,876 -30.4% -28,626 -38.6%
2Q 66,244 70,685 7,631 -58,613 -88.5% -63,054 -89.2% 73,733 42,915 -23,329 -35.2% 35,284 462.3% -30,818 -41.8% Scenario 2
-80%
3Q 70,766 73,526 22,140 -48,626 -68.7% -51,386 -69.9% 76,924 57,511 -13,255 -18.7% 35,371 159.8% -19,413 -25.2% Scenario 2a
4Q 70,824 73,271 42,448 -28,376 -40.1% -30,822 -42.1% 75,853 65,778 -5,046 -7.1% 23,330 55.0% -10,075 -13.3% Reference
Total 275,866 289,292 137,641 -138,225 -50.1% -151,651 -52.4% 300,682 211,749 -64,117 -23.2% 74,108 53.8% -88,933 -29.6%
-100%
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean Domestic

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 26,517 20,457 20,457 20,457 20,457 20,457 -3,703 -15.3% 3,137 18.1% -6,060 -22.9%
February 23,700 17,261 17,261 17,261 17,261 17,261 -3,927 -18.5% 3,295 23.6% -6,439 -27.2%
March 26,895 20,032 20,032 20,032 20,032 20,032 -2,652 -11.7% 5,773 40.5% -6,863 -25.5%
April 25,436 20,356 20,356 20,356 20,356 20,356 -1,534 -7.0% 7,207 54.8% -5,080 -20.0%
May 25,256 21,382 21,382 21,382 21,382 21,382 -1,141 -5.1% 7,090 49.6% -3,874 -15.3%
June 26,720 20,312 20,312 20,312 20,312 20,312 -1,519 -7.0% 4,838 31.3% -6,408 -24.0%
July 28,041 22,980 22,980 22,980 22,980 22,980 -1,594 -6.5% 3,952 20.8% -5,061 -18.0%
August 26,486 22,649 22,649 22,649 22,649 22,649 -1,025 -4.3% 3,286 17.0% -3,837 -14.5%
September 25,972 20,700 20,700 20,700 20,700 20,700 -1,818 -8.1% 1,580 8.3% -5,273 -20.3%
October 26,633 21,545 21,545 21,545 21,545 21,545 -1,998 -8.5% 1,086 5.3% -5,088 -19.1%
November 25,538 21,435 21,435 21,435 21,435 21,435 -1,475 -6.4% -154 -0.7% -4,103 -16.1%
December 26,538 23,057 23,064 22,862 22,736 19,430 -1,636 to -1,308 -6.7% to -5.4% -995 to -667 -4.2% to -2.8% -3,802 to -3,475 -14.3% to -13.1%
1Q 77,112 57,750 57,750 57,750 57,750 57,750 -10,283 -15.1% 12,204 26.8% -19,362 -25.1%
2Q 77,412 62,050 62,050 62,050 62,050 62,050 -4,194 -6.3% 19,135 44.6% -15,361 -19.8%
3Q 80,500 66,329 66,329 66,329 66,329 66,329 -4,437 -6.3% 8,818 15.3% -14,172 -17.6%
4Q 78,709 66,036 66,043 65,841 65,715 62,409 -5,109 to -4,781 -7.2% to -6.8% -63 to 265 -0.1% to 0.4% -12,994 to -12,666 -16.5% to -16.1%
Total 313,733 252,165 252,172 251,969 251,844 248,538 -24,022 to -23,694 -8.7% to -8.6% 40,094 to 40,422 18.9% to 19.1% -61,889 to -61,561 -19.7% to -19.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 82


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 Latin America/Caribbean (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0%
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 37,987 38,554 38,222 235 0.6% -331 -0.9% 39,110 23,950 -14,037 -37.0% -14,272 -37.3% -15,160 -38.8%
February 33,436 34,918 34,655 1,219 3.6% -263 -0.8% 35,286 19,294 -14,141 -42.3% -15,361 -44.3% -15,992 -45.3%
March 36,202 37,571 26,360 -9,841 -27.2% -11,211 -29.8% 38,450 20,158 -16,044 -44.3% -6,203 -23.5% -18,292 -47.6% -20%
April 34,080 35,697 2,777 -31,303 -91.9% -32,920 -92.2% 37,045 18,848 -15,233 -44.7% 16,071 578.7% -18,198 -49.1%
May 34,329 36,177 2,942 -31,387 -91.4% -33,235 -91.9% 37,112 20,602 -13,727 -40.0% 17,660 600.3% -16,511 -44.5%
June 33,684 35,878 4,748 -28,937 -85.9% -31,131 -86.8% 37,586 22,340 -11,344 -33.7% 17,593 370.6% -15,246 -40.6%
-40%
July 37,401 38,735 8,159 -29,242 -78.2% -30,575 -78.9% 40,160 26,863 -10,538 -28.2% 18,703 229.2% -13,297 -33.1%
August 35,897 37,112 9,719 -26,178 -72.9% -27,393 -73.8% 38,502 27,025 -8,871 -24.7% 17,307 178.1% -11,476 -29.8%
September 33,025 34,502 11,202 -21,823 -66.1% -23,300 -67.5% 36,047 25,911 -7,114 -21.5% 14,709 131.3% -10,136 -28.1% Actual
October 34,466 35,353 15,408 -19,058 -55.3% -19,945 -56.4% 36,681 27,915 -6,552 -19.0% 12,507 81.2% -8,766 -23.9% -60%
November 34,560 35,155 18,090 -16,470 -47.7% -17,065 -48.5% 36,491 30,007 -4,553 -13.2% 11,917 65.9% -6,484 -17.8%
Scenario 1
December 37,661 38,207 22,363 -15,298 -40.6% -15,844 -41.5% 39,397 33,988 -3,673 -9.8% 11,625 52.0% -5,409 -13.7% Scenario 1a
1Q 107,624 111,043 99,237 -8,387 -7.8% -11,806 -10.6% 112,846 63,402 -44,222 -41.1% -35,835 -36.1% -49,444 -43.8% Scenario 2
-80%
2Q 102,094 107,752 10,467 -91,627 -89.7% -97,286 -90.3% 111,744 61,790 -40,304 -39.5% 51,323 490.4% -49,954 -44.7%
Scenario 2a
3Q 106,323 110,349 29,080 -77,243 -72.6% -81,268 -73.6% 114,709 79,799 -26,524 -24.9% 50,719 174.4% -34,910 -30.4%
4Q 106,687 108,715 55,860 -50,827 -47.6% -52,855 -48.6% 112,569 91,910 -14,777 -13.9% 36,050 64.5% -20,659 -18.4% Reference
Total 422,729 437,859 194,645 -228,084 -54.0% -243,215 -55.5% 451,868 296,901 -125,828 -29.8% 102,256 52.5% -154,967 -34.3% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 39,788 31,282 31,282 31,282 31,282 31,282 -6,705 -17.6% 7,332 30.6% -8,506 -21.4%
February 35,992 26,920 26,920 26,920 26,920 26,920 -6,516 -19.5% 7,626 39.5% -9,072 -25.2%
March 39,591 31,018 31,018 31,018 31,018 31,018 -5,184 -14.3% 10,860 53.9% -8,573 -21.7%
April 38,592 31,200 31,200 31,200 31,200 31,200 -2,880 -8.5% 12,353 65.5% -7,392 -19.2%
May 38,357 31,920 31,920 31,920 31,920 31,920 -2,410 -7.0% 11,318 54.9% -6,437 -16.8%
June 39,596 30,829 30,829 30,829 30,829 30,829 -2,856 -8.5% 8,489 38.0% -8,767 -22.1%
July 41,711 34,519 34,519 34,519 34,519 34,519 -2,882 -7.7% 7,657 28.5% -7,192 -17.2%
August 39,997 32,778 32,778 32,778 32,778 32,778 -3,119 -8.7% 5,753 21.3% -7,218 -18.0%
September 37,739 30,137 30,137 30,137 30,137 30,137 -2,889 -8.7% 4,226 16.3% -7,602 -20.1%
October 38,071 31,499 31,499 31,499 31,499 31,499 -2,968 -8.6% 3,584 12.8% -6,572 -17.3%
November 37,817 32,431 32,431 32,431 32,431 32,431 -2,129 -6.2% 2,424 8.1% -5,386 -14.2%
December 40,592 35,787 35,721 35,620 35,417 30,331 -2,244 to -1,875 -6.0% to -5.0% 1,429 to 1,798 4.2% to 5.3% -5,174 to -4,805 -12.7% to -11.8%
1Q 115,371 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 89,220 -18,404 -17.1% 25,818 40.7% -26,151 -22.7%
2Q 116,545 93,949 93,949 93,949 93,949 93,949 -8,145 -8.0% 32,159 52.0% -22,596 -19.4%
3Q 119,447 97,434 97,434 97,434 97,434 97,434 -8,889 -8.4% 17,635 22.1% -22,012 -18.4%
4Q 116,480 99,716 99,651 99,549 99,347 94,261 -7,340 to -6,971 -6.9% to -6.5% 7,437 to 7,806 8.1% to 8.5% -17,133 to -16,763 -14.7% to -14.4%
Total 467,842 380,320 380,254 380,153 379,950 374,864 -42,778 to -42,409 -10.1% to -10.0% 83,049 to 83,419 28.0% to 28.1% -87,892 to -87,523 -18.8% to -18.7%

Source: ICAO estimates 83


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Latin America/Caribbean (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 10,944 10,769 10,504 -440 -4.0% -265 -2.5% 10,674 3,104 -7,840 -71.6% -7,400 -70.5% -7,570 -70.9%
February 9,550 9,722 9,331 -219 -2.3% -390 -4.0% 9,659 2,262 -7,288 -76.3% -7,069 -75.8% -7,397 -76.6%
March 10,848 10,688 5,894 -4,954 -45.7% -4,794 -44.9% 10,455 2,838 -8,010 -73.8% -3,056 -51.8% -7,617 -72.9%
-20%
April 9,849 10,188 273 -9,576 -97.2% -9,915 -97.3% 10,425 2,818 -7,031 -71.4% 2,545 930.9% -7,607 -73.0%
May 9,585 9,993 298 -9,287 -96.9% -9,695 -97.0% 10,328 3,488 -6,096 -63.6% 3,191 1072.1% -6,839 -66.2%
June 9,824 10,185 545 -9,279 -94.5% -9,640 -94.7% 10,435 4,358 -5,466 -55.6% 3,814 700.0% -6,076 -58.2%
July 10,777 11,074 974 -9,803 -91.0% -10,100 -91.2% 11,308 5,314 -5,463 -50.7% 4,341 445.8% -5,994 -53.0% -40%
August 10,198 10,604 1,135 -9,064 -88.9% -9,470 -89.3% 10,951 5,260 -4,938 -48.4% 4,126 363.6% -5,690 -52.0%
September 8,427 8,883 956 -7,471 -88.7% -7,926 -89.2% 9,157 4,336 -4,090 -48.5% 3,380 353.5% -4,821 -52.6%
October 8,644 8,613 1,436 -7,208 -83.4% -7,177 -83.3% 8,884 4,958 -3,687 -42.6% 3,522 245.2% -3,926 -44.2%
-60% Actual
November 9,254 9,154 2,086 -7,167 -77.5% -7,067 -77.2% 9,524 6,035 -3,219 -34.8% 3,949 189.3% -3,489 -36.6%
Scenario 1
December 10,744 10,658 3,156 -7,588 -70.6% -7,502 -70.4% 11,085 7,494 -3,250 -30.2% 4,338 137.5% -3,591 -32.4%
1Q 31,342 31,178 25,729 -5,612 -17.9% -5,449 -17.5% 30,789 8,204 -23,138 -73.8% -17,525 -68.1% -22,585 -73.4%
Scenario 1a
2Q 29,257 30,366 1,116 -28,142 -96.2% -29,250 -96.3% 31,188 10,665 -18,593 -63.5% 9,549 855.8% -20,523 -65.8% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 29,402 30,560 3,064 -26,337 -89.6% -27,496 -90.0% 31,416 14,911 -14,491 -49.3% 11,846 386.6% -16,505 -52.5% Scenario 2a
4Q 28,642 28,425 6,679 -21,963 -76.7% -21,746 -76.5% 29,493 18,487 -10,155 -35.5% 11,809 176.8% -11,006 -37.3% Reference
Total 118,643 120,529 36,588 -82,054 -69.2% -83,941 -69.6% 122,885 52,267 -66,376 -55.9% 15,679 42.9% -70,619 -57.5% -100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 10,601 7,031 7,031 7,031 7,031 7,031 -3,913 -35.8% 3,927 126.5% -3,570 -33.7%
February 9,675 6,645 6,645 6,645 6,645 6,645 -2,904 -30.4% 4,383 193.8% -3,030 -31.3%
March 10,276 8,316 8,316 8,316 8,316 8,316 -2,531 -23.3% 5,478 193.0% -1,959 -19.1%
April 10,722 8,586 8,586 8,586 8,586 8,586 -1,263 -12.8% 5,768 204.7% -2,136 -19.9%
May 10,725 8,460 8,460 8,460 8,460 8,460 -1,125 -11.7% 4,972 142.5% -2,265 -21.1%
June 10,754 8,830 8,830 8,830 8,830 8,830 -993 -10.1% 4,472 102.6% -1,923 -17.9%
July 11,596 9,912 9,912 9,912 9,912 9,912 -865 -8.0% 4,597 86.5% -1,684 -14.5%
August 11,369 8,430 8,430 8,430 8,430 8,430 -1,768 -17.3% 3,170 60.3% -2,939 -25.8%
September 9,516 7,783 7,783 7,783 7,783 7,783 -643 -7.6% 3,447 79.5% -1,733 -18.2%
October 9,135 8,282 8,282 8,282 8,282 8,282 -363 -4.2% 3,324 67.0% -853 -9.3%
November 9,840 8,872 8,872 8,872 8,872 8,872 -381 -4.1% 2,837 47.0% -967 -9.8%
December 11,460 10,631 10,633 10,655 10,590 9,312 -153 to -89 -1.4% to -0.8% 3,096 to 3,160 41.3% to 42.2% -870 to -805 -7.6% to -7.0%
1Q 30,552 21,993 21,993 21,993 21,993 21,993 -9,349 -29.8% 13,789 168.1% -8,559 -28.0%
2Q 32,202 25,877 25,877 25,877 25,877 25,877 -3,381 -11.6% 15,212 142.6% -6,325 -19.6%
3Q 32,481 26,125 26,125 26,125 26,125 26,125 -3,277 -11.1% 11,214 75.2% -6,356 -19.6%
4Q 30,435 27,785 27,787 27,809 27,744 26,466 -897 to -833 -3.1% to -2.9% 9,257 to 9,321 50.1% to 50.4% -2,690 to -2,626 -8.8% to -8.6%
Total 125,669 101,780 101,782 101,803 101,739 100,460 -16,903 to -16,839 -14.2% to -14.2% 49,472 to 49,536 94.7% to 94.8% -23,929 to -23,865 -19.0% to -19.0%

Source: ICAO estimates 84


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Latin America/Caribbean (Domestic)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 19,955 20,785 21,383 1,428 7.2% 598 2.9% 21,527 13,441 -6,514 -32.6% -7,941 -37.1% -8,086 -37.6% 0%
February 17,280 18,473 18,534 1,254 7.3% 60 0.3% 18,999 10,305 -6,976 -40.4% -8,229 -44.4% -8,695 -45.8%
March 18,288 19,730 12,049 -6,239 -34.1% -7,681 -38.9% 20,853 9,872 -8,415 -46.0% -2,176 -18.1% -10,981 -52.7%
April 17,758 18,896 1,271 -16,486 -92.8% -17,625 -93.3% 19,923 10,116 -7,642 -43.0% 8,844 695.6% -9,807 -49.2%
-20%
May 18,411 19,683 1,552 -16,859 -91.6% -18,130 -92.1% 20,280 11,699 -6,712 -36.5% 10,147 653.7% -8,580 -42.3%
June 17,936 19,547 2,640 -15,297 -85.3% -16,908 -86.5% 20,882 12,617 -5,319 -29.7% 9,977 378.0% -8,265 -39.6%
July 20,696 21,717 4,229 -16,468 -79.6% -17,488 -80.5% 22,881 15,937 -4,760 -23.0% 11,708 276.9% -6,944 -30.3%
-40%
August 19,351 20,124 5,358 -13,993 -72.3% -14,766 -73.4% 21,106 15,578 -3,773 -19.5% 10,220 190.7% -5,528 -26.2%
September 18,121 19,015 7,187 -10,933 -60.3% -11,828 -62.2% 20,159 15,566 -2,555 -14.1% 8,379 116.6% -4,593 -22.8%
October 19,344 20,269 9,757 -9,586 -49.6% -10,512 -51.9% 21,248 17,366 -1,978 -10.2% 7,608 78.0% -3,882 -18.3% Actual
November 18,657 19,409 11,514 -7,143 -38.3% -7,895 -40.7% 20,284 17,955 -703 -3.8% 6,441 55.9% -2,329 -11.5% -60% Scenario 1
December 20,198 20,916 13,306 -6,892 -34.1% -7,610 -36.4% 21,641 19,895 -304 -1.5% 6,589 49.5% -1,746 -8.1% Scenario 1a
1Q 55,523 58,988 51,965 -3,558 -6.4% -7,023 -11.9% 61,379 33,618 -21,905 -39.5% -18,347 -35.3% -27,761 -45.2% Scenario 2
2Q 54,105 58,126 5,463 -48,642 -89.9% -52,663 -90.6% 61,084 34,432 -19,673 -36.4% 28,969 530.2% -26,652 -43.6% -80% Scenario 2a
3Q 58,168 60,856 16,774 -41,394 -71.2% -44,082 -72.4% 64,146 47,080 -11,087 -19.1% 30,307 180.7% -17,066 -26.6%
Reference
4Q 58,199 60,594 34,577 -23,622 -40.6% -26,017 -42.9% 63,172 55,215 -2,984 -5.1% 20,638 59.7% -7,957 -12.6%
Total 225,995 238,565 108,780 -117,215 -51.9% -129,785 -54.4% 249,782 170,346 -55,649 -24.6% 61,566 56.6% -79,436 -31.8% -100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean Domestic Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
Year 2022 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 22,204 17,127 17,127 17,127 17,127 17,127 -2,828 -14.2% 3,686 27.4% -5,077 -22.9%
February 19,598 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 -3,386 -19.6% 3,589 34.8% -5,704 -29.1%
March 22,006 15,879 15,879 15,879 15,879 15,879 -2,409 -13.2% 6,006 60.8% -6,127 -27.8%
April 20,930 15,946 15,946 15,946 15,946 15,946 -1,811 -10.2% 5,830 57.6% -4,984 -23.8%
May 20,944 16,190 16,190 16,190 16,190 16,190 -2,221 -12.1% 4,491 38.4% -4,754 -22.7%
June 22,274 15,556 15,556 15,556 15,556 15,556 -2,380 -13.3% 2,939 23.3% -6,718 -30.2%
July 23,958 18,497 18,497 18,497 18,497 18,497 -2,200 -10.6% 2,560 16.1% -5,461 -22.8%
August 21,974 18,345 18,345 18,345 18,345 18,345 -1,006 -5.2% 2,767 17.8% -3,629 -16.5%
September 21,209 16,657 16,657 16,657 16,657 16,657 -1,464 -8.1% 1,091 7.0% -4,552 -21.5%
October 22,165 17,112 17,112 17,112 17,112 17,112 -2,232 -11.5% -254 -1.5% -5,053 -22.8%
November 21,081 17,299 17,299 17,299 17,299 17,299 -1,358 -7.3% -655 -3.6% -3,781 -17.9%
December 22,287 18,469 18,399 18,376 18,173 15,641 -2,025 to -1,729 -10.0% to -8.6% -1,721 to -1,425 -8.7% to -7.2% -4,113 to -3,817 -18.5% to -17.1%
1Q 63,808 46,900 46,900 46,900 46,900 46,900 -8,623 -15.5% 13,282 39.5% -16,908 -26.5%
2Q 64,148 47,692 47,692 47,692 47,692 47,692 -6,413 -11.9% 13,260 38.5% -16,456 -25.7%
3Q 67,141 53,498 53,498 53,498 53,498 53,498 -4,669 -8.0% 6,418 13.6% -13,643 -20.3%
4Q 65,532 52,880 52,810 52,787 52,584 50,052 -5,615 to -5,319 -9.6% to -9.1% -2,631 to -2,335 -4.8% to -4.2% -12,948 to -12,652 -19.8% to -19.3%
Total 260,629 200,971 200,901 200,878 200,674 198,142 -25,320 to -25,024 -11.2% to -11.1% 30,329 to 30,625 17.8% to 18.0% -59,955 to -59,658 -23.0% to -22.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 85


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 Latin America/Caribbean (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0%
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 30,899 31,554 31,887 988 3.2% 333 1.1% 32,201 16,545 -14,354 -46.5% -15,342 -48.1% -15,656 -48.6%
February 26,830 28,195 27,865 1,035 3.9% -330 -1.2% 28,659 12,567 -14,263 -53.2% -15,298 -54.9% -16,092 -56.2%
March 29,136 30,418 17,942 -11,193 -38.4% -12,475 -41.0% 31,308 12,711 -16,425 -56.4% -5,232 -29.2% -18,598 -59.4% -20%
April 27,607 29,084 1,545 -26,062 -94.4% -27,539 -94.7% 30,348 12,934 -14,673 -53.2% 11,389 737.2% -17,414 -57.4%
May 27,996 29,676 1,850 -26,146 -93.4% -27,826 -93.8% 30,608 15,188 -12,808 -45.7% 13,338 721.0% -15,420 -50.4%
June 27,760 29,732 3,184 -24,576 -88.5% -26,548 -89.3% 31,317 16,975 -10,785 -38.8% 13,791 433.1% -14,341 -45.8%
-40%
July 31,473 32,791 5,202 -26,271 -83.5% -27,588 -84.1% 34,189 21,251 -10,222 -32.5% 16,049 308.5% -12,938 -37.8%
August 29,549 30,728 6,493 -23,056 -78.0% -24,235 -78.9% 32,057 20,838 -8,711 -29.5% 14,346 221.0% -11,219 -35.0%
September 26,547 27,898 8,144 -18,404 -69.3% -19,754 -70.8% 29,316 19,902 -6,645 -25.0% 11,759 144.4% -9,414 -32.1%
October 27,988 28,882 11,194 -16,794 -60.0% -17,688 -61.2% 30,132 22,324 -5,665 -20.2% 11,130 99.4% -7,808 -25.9% -60% Actual
November 27,911 28,563 13,600 -14,311 -51.3% -14,962 -52.4% 29,808 23,990 -3,921 -14.0% 10,389 76.4% -5,818 -19.5% Scenario 1
December 30,942 31,574 16,462 -14,480 -46.8% -15,112 -47.9% 32,726 27,389 -3,553 -11.5% 10,927 66.4% -5,337 -16.3% Scenario 1a
1Q 86,864 90,166 77,694 -9,170 -10.6% -12,472 -13.8% 92,168 41,822 -45,042 -51.9% -35,872 -46.2% -50,346 -54.6% Scenario 2
-80%
2Q 83,363 88,492 6,579 -76,783 -92.1% -81,913 -92.6% 92,272 45,097 -38,266 -45.9% 38,518 585.4% -47,175 -51.1%
Scenario 2a
3Q 87,569 91,416 19,838 -67,731 -77.3% -71,578 -78.3% 95,562 61,991 -25,578 -29.2% 42,153 212.5% -33,571 -35.1%
4Q 86,841 89,019 41,256 -45,585 -52.5% -47,763 -53.7% 92,666 73,702 -13,139 -15.1% 32,446 78.6% -18,963 -20.5%
Reference
Total 344,637 359,094 145,368 -199,269 -57.8% -213,726 -59.5% 372,668 222,613 -122,025 -35.4% 77,245 53.1% -150,055 -40.3% -100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - Latin America/Caribbean International + Domestic Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov
20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 32,805 24,158 24,158 24,158 24,158 24,158 -6,740 -21.8% 7,614 46.0% -8,647 -26.4%
February 29,273 20,539 20,539 20,539 20,539 20,539 -6,291 -23.4% 7,972 63.4% -8,734 -29.8%
March 32,282 24,195 24,195 24,195 24,195 24,195 -4,940 -17.0% 11,484 90.4% -8,086 -25.0%
April 31,653 24,532 24,532 24,532 24,532 24,532 -3,074 -11.1% 11,599 89.7% -7,120 -22.5%
May 31,669 24,650 24,650 24,650 24,650 24,650 -3,346 -12.0% 9,462 62.3% -7,019 -22.2%
June 33,028 24,386 24,386 24,386 24,386 24,386 -3,374 -12.2% 7,411 43.7% -8,642 -26.2%
July 35,554 28,408 28,408 28,408 28,408 28,408 -3,065 -9.7% 7,157 33.7% -7,145 -20.1%
August 33,343 26,775 26,775 26,775 26,775 26,775 -2,774 -9.4% 5,937 28.5% -6,568 -19.7%
September 30,725 24,440 24,440 24,440 24,440 24,440 -2,107 -7.9% 4,538 22.8% -6,285 -20.5%
October 31,300 25,393 25,393 25,393 25,393 25,393 -2,595 -9.3% 3,070 13.8% -5,907 -18.9%
November 30,920 26,172 26,172 26,172 26,172 26,172 -1,739 -6.2% 2,182 9.1% -4,749 -15.4%
December 33,746 29,100 29,032 29,031 28,764 24,952 -2,178 to -1,842 -7.0% to -6.0% 1,375 to 1,712 5.0% to 6.2% -4,983 to -4,646 -14.8% to -13.8%
1Q 94,360 68,893 68,893 68,893 68,893 68,893 -17,972 -20.7% 27,071 64.7% -25,467 -27.0%
2Q 96,350 73,569 73,569 73,569 73,569 73,569 -9,793 -11.7% 28,472 63.1% -22,781 -23.6%
3Q 99,621 79,623 79,623 79,623 79,623 79,623 -7,946 -9.1% 17,632 28.4% -19,998 -20.1%
4Q 95,967 80,665 80,597 80,596 80,329 76,517 -6,513 to -6,176 -7.5% to -7.1% 6,626 to 6,963 9.0% to 9.4% -15,638 to -15,301 -16.3% to -15.9%
Total 386,298 302,750 302,682 302,681 302,414 298,602 -42,224 to -41,887 -12.3% to -12.2% 79,801 to 80,138 35.8% to 36.0% -83,884 to -83,547 -21.7% to -21.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 86


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Latin America/Caribbean International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Latin America/Caribbean (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 2,204 2,160 2,101 -103 -4.7% -59 -2.7% 2,155 605 -1,600 -72.6% -1,496 -71.2% -1,550 -71.9% 0.0
February 1,924 1,950 1,865 -59 -3.0% -84 -4.3% 1,947 436 -1,488 -77.3% -1,429 -76.6% -1,511 -77.6%
March 2,170 2,131 1,174 -997 -45.9% -957 -44.9% 2,096 539 -1,631 -75.1% -634 -54.0% -1,556 -74.3%
April 1,973 2,043 52 -1,921 -97.4% -1,991 -97.5% 2,095 538 -1,436 -72.8% 486 932.5% -1,557 -74.3%
May 1,915 2,000 58 -1,856 -97.0% -1,941 -97.1% 2,066 658 -1,257 -65.7% 599 1028.3% -1,409 -68.2% -0.5

Billions (USD)
June 1,965 2,047 102 -1,863 -94.8% -1,944 -95.0% 2,101 821 -1,145 -58.2% 718 701.3% -1,280 -60.9%
July 2,159 2,237 187 -1,972 -91.3% -2,050 -91.6% 2,301 1,022 -1,137 -52.6% 835 446.1% -1,279 -55.6%
August 2,060 2,157 223 -1,837 -89.2% -1,935 -89.7% 2,239 1,022 -1,038 -50.4% 800 359.4% -1,217 -54.3%
September 1,723 1,818 193 -1,530 -88.8% -1,624 -89.4% 1,880 844 -879 -51.0% 650 336.3% -1,036 -55.1% -1.0
October 1,757 1,756 288 -1,470 -83.6% -1,468 -83.6% 1,822 971 -786 -44.8% 683 237.6% -851 -46.7% Actual
November 1,858 1,828 398 -1,460 -78.6% -1,430 -78.2% 1,908 1,181 -676 -36.4% 784 196.9% -727 -38.1% Scenario 1
December 2,148 2,133 607 -1,541 -71.7% -1,525 -71.5% 2,228 1,470 -678 -31.6% 863 142.1% -758 -34.0%
Scenario 1a
1Q 6,299 6,241 5,140 -1,159 -18.4% -1,101 -17.6% 6,198 1,581 -4,718 -74.9% -3,560 -69.3% -4,617 -74.5% -1.5
Scenario 2
2Q 5,853 6,090 213 -5,640 -96.4% -5,877 -96.5% 6,262 2,016 -3,837 -65.6% 1,803 847.4% -4,246 -67.8%
3Q 5,942 6,212 603 -5,339 -89.9% -5,609 -90.3% 6,420 2,888 -3,054 -51.4% 2,285 378.9% -3,531 -55.0% Scenario 2a
4Q 5,763 5,716 1,293 -4,471 -77.6% -4,424 -77.4% 5,958 3,622 -2,141 -37.2% 2,329 180.2% -2,336 -39.2% Reference
Total 23,857 24,259 7,249 -16,609 -69.6% -17,010 -70.1% 24,838 10,107 -13,750 -57.6% 2,858 39.4% -14,731 -59.3% -2.0

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Jul 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jul 21
Jan 21

Jan 22
Jan 20

Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Latin America/Caribbean International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 2,152 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 1,399 -806 -36.6% 794 131.2% -753 -35.0%
February 1,957 1,318 1,318 1,318 1,318 1,318 -606 -31.5% 882 202.2% -639 -32.6%
March 2,068 1,619 1,619 1,619 1,619 1,619 -552 -25.4% 1,079 200.1% -449 -21.7%
April 2,160 1,674 1,674 1,674 1,674 1,674 -299 -15.1% 1,137 211.4% -485 -22.5%
May 2,148 1,647 1,647 1,647 1,647 1,647 -268 -14.0% 989 150.4% -501 -23.3%
June 2,172 1,702 1,702 1,702 1,702 1,702 -263 -13.4% 881 107.4% -469 -21.6%
July 2,378 1,923 1,923 1,923 1,923 1,923 -236 -11.0% 900 88.1% -456 -19.2%
August 2,338 1,673 1,673 1,673 1,673 1,673 -387 -18.8% 651 63.7% -665 -28.4%
September 1,959 1,551 1,551 1,551 1,551 1,551 -172 -10.0% 707 83.8% -408 -20.8%
October 1,884 1,641 1,641 1,641 1,641 1,641 -116 -6.6% 670 69.1% -243 -12.9%
November 1,976 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 -103 -5.5% 573 48.5% -221 -11.2%
December 2,314 2,103 2,103 2,108 2,095 1,837 -54 to -41 -2.5% to -1.9% 625 to 638 42.5% to 43.4% -219 to -206 -9.5% to -8.9%
1Q 6,177 4,336 4,336 4,336 4,336 4,336 -1,963 -31.2% 2,755 174.3% -1,842 -29.8%
2Q 6,479 5,023 5,023 5,023 5,023 5,023 -830 -14.2% 3,007 149.2% -1,456 -22.5%
3Q 6,675 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 -796 -13.4% 2,258 78.2% -1,529 -22.9%
4Q 6,174 5,499 5,499 5,504 5,491 5,233 -273 to -260 -4.7% to -4.5% 1,869 to 1,881 51.6% to 51.9% -683 to -671 -11.1% to -10.9%
Total 25,505 20,004 20,004 20,009 19,996 19,738 -3,861 to -3,848 -16.2% to -16.1% 9,889 to 9,902 97.8% to 98.0% -5,509 to -5,496 -21.6% to -21.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 87


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Latin America/Caribbean Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Latin America/Caribbean (Domestic)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 1,668 1,734 1,786 118 7.1% 52 3.0% 1,795 1,118 -550 -33.0% -668 -37.4% -677 -37.7%
February 1,443 1,539 1,545 103 7.1% 6 0.4% 1,582 854 -589 -40.8% -692 -44.8% -728 -46.0%
0.0
March 1,524 1,644 1,001 -523 -34.3% -643 -39.1% 1,737 813 -711 -46.6% -188 -18.7% -924 -53.2%
April 1,477 1,572 103 -1,374 -93.0% -1,468 -93.4% 1,656 830 -647 -43.8% 727 704.3% -826 -49.9%
May 1,531 1,637 127 -1,404 -91.7% -1,510 -92.3% 1,685 964 -567 -37.1% 837 660.2% -722 -42.8%
-0.3
June 1,490 1,626 214 -1,276 -85.6% -1,411 -86.8% 1,737 1,042 -448 -30.1% 828 386.5% -695 -40.0%

Billions (USD)
July 1,722 1,808 343 -1,380 -80.1% -1,465 -81.0% 1,903 1,320 -403 -23.4% 977 285.1% -583 -30.6%
August 1,610 1,676 435 -1,175 -73.0% -1,241 -74.0% 1,758 1,290 -321 -19.9% 854 196.2% -469 -26.6%
-0.6
September 1,512 1,586 588 -924 -61.1% -998 -62.9% 1,680 1,295 -217 -14.4% 707 120.3% -386 -23.0%
October 1,613 1,687 804 -809 -50.2% -884 -52.4% 1,767 1,443 -170 -10.5% 639 79.6% -324 -18.3%
November 1,554 1,614 952 -602 -38.7% -662 -41.0% 1,685 1,493 -61 -3.9% 541 56.8% -192 -11.4%
Actual
-0.9 Scenario 1
December 1,684 1,741 1,104 -580 -34.5% -637 -36.6% 1,799 1,655 -29 -1.7% 551 49.9% -145 -8.0%
1Q 4,635 4,917 4,332 -303 -6.5% -585 -11.9% 5,114 2,785 -1,850 -39.9% -1,547 -35.7% -2,329 -45.5% Scenario 1a
2Q 4,498 4,835 444 -4,054 -90.1% -4,390 -90.8% 5,078 2,836 -1,662 -37.0% 2,392 538.5% -2,242 -44.2% Scenario 2
-1.2
3Q 4,845 5,070 1,366 -3,479 -71.8% -3,704 -73.1% 5,342 3,904 -940 -19.4% 2,538 185.8% -1,438 -26.9%
Scenario 2a
4Q 4,851 5,042 2,860 -1,991 -41.1% -2,183 -43.3% 5,251 4,591 -260 -5.4% 1,732 60.6% -660 -12.6%
Total 18,828 19,864 9,001 -9,827 -52.2% -10,862 -54.7% 20,785 14,116 -4,712 -25.0% 5,115 56.8% -6,669 -32.1% Reference
-1.5

Sep 20

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

Sep 21

May 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Latin America/Caribbean Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 1,849 1,426 1,426 1,426 1,426 1,426 -241 -14.5% 308 27.6% -423 -22.9%
February 1,630 1,153 1,153 1,153 1,153 1,153 -289 -20.0% 300 35.1% -476 -29.2%
March 1,833 1,317 1,317 1,317 1,317 1,317 -207 -13.6% 504 61.9% -516 -28.1%
April 1,739 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 -157 -10.6% 489 58.9% -419 -24.1%
May 1,739 1,341 1,341 1,341 1,341 1,341 -190 -12.4% 378 39.2% -398 -22.9%
June 1,852 1,289 1,289 1,289 1,289 1,289 -201 -13.5% 247 23.7% -563 -30.4%
July 1,991 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 -188 -10.9% 215 16.3% -457 -22.9%
August 1,831 1,522 1,522 1,522 1,522 1,522 -89 -5.5% 232 18.0% -309 -16.9%
September 1,767 1,384 1,384 1,384 1,384 1,384 -128 -8.5% 89 6.9% -383 -21.7%
October 1,841 1,419 1,419 1,419 1,419 1,419 -194 -12.0% -24 -1.6% -421 -22.9%
November 1,748 1,436 1,436 1,436 1,436 1,436 -118 -7.6% -57 -3.8% -312 -17.9%
December 1,851 1,533 1,527 1,525 1,509 1,298 -175 to -151 -10.4% to -9.0% -146 to -122 -8.8% to -7.4% -342 to -318 -18.5% to -17.2%
1Q 5,312 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 -738 -15.9% 1,112 39.9% -1,415 -26.6%
2Q 5,330 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,950 -548 -12.2% 1,114 39.3% -1,380 -25.9%
3Q 5,589 4,440 4,440 4,440 4,440 4,440 -405 -8.4% 535 13.7% -1,149 -20.6%
4Q 5,440 4,389 4,383 4,381 4,364 4,154 -487 to -462 -10.0% to -9.5% -227 to -203 -4.9% to -4.4% -1,076 to -1,051 -19.8% to -19.3%
Total 21,671 16,675 16,669 16,667 16,650 16,440 -2,178 to -2,153 -11.6% to -11.4% 2,534 to 2,559 18.0% to 18.1% -5,020 to -4,996 -23.2% to -23.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 88


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Latin America/Caribbean International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Latin America/Caribbean (Total)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 3,872 3,894 3,887 15 0.4% -7 -0.2% 3,950 1,723 -2,149 -55.5% -2,164 -55.7% -2,227 -56.4% 0.0
February 3,366 3,489 3,411 44 1.3% -78 -2.2% 3,529 1,290 -2,076 -61.7% -2,121 -62.2% -2,239 -63.4%
March 3,695 3,774 2,175 -1,520 -41.1% -1,600 -42.4% 3,833 1,353 -2,342 -63.4% -822 -37.8% -2,480 -64.7% -0.5
April 3,450 3,615 155 -3,295 -95.5% -3,460 -95.7% 3,751 1,368 -2,082 -60.4% 1,213 780.8% -2,383 -63.5%
May 3,445 3,637 185 -3,260 -94.6% -3,452 -94.9% 3,752 1,621 -1,824 -52.9% 1,436 776.2% -2,130 -56.8%
-1.0

Billions (USD)
June 3,456 3,672 317 -3,139 -90.8% -3,356 -91.4% 3,838 1,863 -1,593 -46.1% 1,546 488.4% -1,975 -51.5%
July 3,882 4,045 530 -3,352 -86.3% -3,515 -86.9% 4,204 2,342 -1,539 -39.7% 1,812 342.0% -1,862 -44.3%
August 3,670 3,834 658 -3,012 -82.1% -3,176 -82.8% 3,997 2,312 -1,358 -37.0% 1,654 251.4% -1,685 -42.2% -1.5
September 3,235 3,404 781 -2,454 -75.9% -2,623 -77.1% 3,560 2,138 -1,097 -33.9% 1,357 173.8% -1,421 -39.9%
October 3,370 3,443 1,091 -2,279 -67.6% -2,352 -68.3% 3,589 2,414 -956 -28.4% 1,323 121.2% -1,175 -32.7% -2.0 Actual
November 3,411 3,442 1,350 -2,061 -60.4% -2,092 -60.8% 3,593 2,674 -737 -21.6% 1,324 98.1% -919 -25.6% Scenario 1
December 3,832 3,873 1,711 -2,121 -55.4% -2,162 -55.8% 4,028 3,125 -707 -18.5% 1,414 82.6% -903 -22.4% Scenario 1a
-2.5
1Q 10,933 11,158 9,472 -1,461 -13.4% -1,686 -15.1% 11,312 4,366 -6,568 -60.1% -5,106 -53.9% -6,946 -61.4%
Scenario 2
2Q 10,351 10,924 657 -9,695 -93.7% -10,267 -94.0% 11,340 4,852 -5,500 -53.1% 4,195 638.6% -6,488 -57.2%
3Q 10,787 11,282 1,969 -8,818 -81.7% -9,313 -82.5% 11,762 6,793 -3,994 -37.0% 4,824 245.0% -4,969 -42.2% -3.0 Scenario 2a
4Q 10,614 10,759 4,152 -6,462 -60.9% -6,606 -61.4% 11,209 8,213 -2,401 -22.6% 4,061 97.8% -2,996 -26.7% Reference
Total 42,686 44,123 16,250 -26,435 -61.9% -27,873 -63.2% 45,623 24,223 -18,462 -43.3% 7,973 49.1% -21,400 -46.9% -3.5

Sep 20

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

Sep 21

May 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Latin America/Caribbean International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 4,001 2,825 2,825 2,825 2,825 2,825 -1,047 -27.0% 1,102 64.0% -1,176 -29.4%
February 3,587 2,472 2,472 2,472 2,472 2,472 -895 -26.6% 1,182 91.6% -1,115 -31.1%
March 3,901 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 -759 -20.5% 1,583 117.0% -965 -24.7%
April 3,899 2,994 2,994 2,994 2,994 2,994 -456 -13.2% 1,626 118.9% -904 -23.2%
May 3,886 2,988 2,988 2,988 2,988 2,988 -457 -13.3% 1,367 84.3% -898 -23.1%
June 4,024 2,991 2,991 2,991 2,991 2,991 -465 -13.4% 1,128 60.6% -1,033 -25.7%
July 4,370 3,457 3,457 3,457 3,457 3,457 -424 -10.9% 1,115 47.6% -913 -20.9%
August 4,168 3,195 3,195 3,195 3,195 3,195 -476 -13.0% 883 38.2% -974 -23.4%
September 3,726 2,935 2,935 2,935 2,935 2,935 -300 -9.3% 796 37.2% -791 -21.2%
October 3,725 3,060 3,060 3,060 3,060 3,060 -310 -9.2% 647 26.8% -665 -17.8%
November 3,724 3,191 3,191 3,191 3,191 3,191 -221 -6.5% 516 19.3% -533 -14.3%
December 4,165 3,636 3,631 3,633 3,603 3,135 -229 to -196 -6.0% to -5.1% 478 to 511 15.3% to 16.4% -561 to -528 -13.5% to -12.7%
1Q 11,489 8,232 8,232 8,232 8,232 8,232 -2,701 -24.7% 3,867 88.6% -3,257 -28.3%
2Q 11,809 8,973 8,973 8,973 8,973 8,973 -1,378 -13.3% 4,121 84.9% -2,836 -24.0%
3Q 12,264 9,586 9,586 9,586 9,586 9,586 -1,200 -11.1% 2,794 41.1% -2,678 -21.8%
4Q 11,614 9,887 9,882 9,884 9,855 9,387 -759 to -727 -7.2% to -6.8% 1,641 to 1,674 20.0% to 20.4% -1,759 to -1,727 -15.1% to -14.9%
Total 47,176 36,679 36,674 36,676 36,646 36,178 -6,039 to -6,006 -14.1% to -14.1% 12,423 to 12,456 51.3% to 51.4% -10,530 to -10,497 -22.3% to -22.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 89


Middle East

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -19.4% -19.6% -18.7% -8,995 -20.2% -6,929 -20.1% -2,066 -20.9% -1,411 -1,216 -195
2Q 2020 -89.8% -90.3% -88.2% -43,774 -95.4% -34,333 -96.1% -9,442 -93.0% -7,194 -6,302 -892
3Q 2020 -73.7% -79.1% -53.5% -44,550 -86.5% -36,862 -90.2% -7,687 -72.3% -7,467 -6,740 -727
4Q 2020 -61.4% -69.6% -30.3% -35,423 -78.0% -30,213 -83.9% -5,210 -55.5% -6,041 -5,549 -492
Total 2020 -61.3% -65.0% -47.7% -132,742 -70.9% -108,337 -73.6% -24,405 -60.9% -22,113 -19,807 -2,306
1Q 2021 -56.2% -63.4% -31.2% -33,505 -75.4% -27,783 -80.4% -5,722 -57.8% -5,631 -5,090 -541
2Q 2021 -51.5% -60.3% -20.3% -33,426 -72.9% -28,127 -78.7% -5,300 -52.2% -5,669 -5,168 -501
3Q 2021 -45.0% -50.9% -22.7% -32,514 -63.1% -27,565 -67.4% -4,948 -46.5% -5,494 -5,026 -468
4Q 2021 -33.3% -36.8% -20.2% -20,693 -45.6% -17,863 -49.6% -2,830 -30.1% -3,621 -3,353 -267
Total 2021 -46.4% -52.7% -23.7% -120,138 -64.2% -101,338 -68.9% -18,800 -46.9% -20,415 -18,638 -1,777
1Q 2022 -31.8% -29.7% -39.0% -17,954 -40.4% -13,503 -39.1% -4,450 -44.9% -2,943 -2,522 -421
2Q 2022 -22.9% -18.8% -37.0% -11,126 -24.3% -7,035 -19.7% -4,091 -40.3% -1,718 -1,332 -387
3Q 2022 -19.7% -14.7% -38.3% -9,075 -17.6% -4,994 -12.2% -4,081 -38.4% -1,366 -981 -386
4Q 2022 -17.3% to -16.8% -12.7% to -12.5% -34.5% to -33.2% -4,698 to -4,563 -10.3% to -10.0% -1,866 to -1,852 -5.2% to -5.1% -2,831 to -2,710 -30.2% to -28.9% -705 to -691 -437 to -434 -268 to -256
Total 2022 -22.8% to -22.7% -18.8% to -18.8% -37.2% to -36.9% -42,853 to -42,718 -22.9% to -22.8% -27,399 to -27,385 -18.6% to -18.6% -15,454 to -15,332 -38.6% to -38.3% -6,732 to -6,718 -5,272 to -5,269 -1,460 to -1,449

90
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Middle East International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Middle East (International)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 16,210 16,892 15,726 -484 -3.0% -1,166 -6.9% 16,935 5,909 -10,301 -63.5% -9,817 -62.4% -11,026 -65.1%
February 14,526 15,570 14,213 -314 -2.2% -1,357 -8.7% 15,650 5,216 -9,310 -64.1% -8,996 -63.3% -10,434 -66.7%
March 16,072 16,746 7,697 -8,375 -52.1% -9,049 -54.0% 16,533 5,985 -10,088 -62.8% -1,712 -22.2% -10,548 -63.8%
-20%
April 15,352 16,224 1,160 -14,192 -92.4% -15,065 -92.9% 16,517 6,053 -9,299 -60.6% 4,893 421.9% -10,464 -63.4%
May 14,952 16,637 1,222 -13,730 -91.8% -15,416 -92.7% 17,389 5,947 -9,005 -60.2% 4,725 386.8% -11,442 -65.8%
June 16,402 16,984 2,156 -14,246 -86.9% -14,828 -87.3% 17,340 6,525 -9,878 -60.2% 4,369 202.6% -10,815 -62.4%
July 17,363 17,930 3,101 -14,262 -82.1% -14,829 -82.7% 18,319 8,120 -9,243 -53.2% 5,019 161.9% -10,199 -55.7% -40%
August 18,038 18,404 3,635 -14,403 -79.8% -14,769 -80.2% 18,758 8,557 -9,481 -52.6% 4,922 135.4% -10,200 -54.4%
September 16,174 16,606 4,042 -12,132 -75.0% -12,564 -75.7% 16,923 8,630 -7,544 -46.6% 4,588 113.5% -8,293 -49.0%
October 16,098 16,560 4,629 -11,469 -71.2% -11,931 -72.0% 17,112 9,461 -6,638 -41.2% 4,831 104.4% -7,652 -44.7% -60% Actual
November 15,465 15,740 4,725 -10,740 -69.4% -11,015 -70.0% 16,369 9,895 -5,570 -36.0% 5,170 109.4% -6,474 -39.6% Scenario 1
December 16,571 17,259 5,260 -11,311 -68.3% -11,999 -69.5% 17,880 11,088 -5,483 -33.1% 5,828 110.8% -6,791 -38.0%
Scenario 1a
1Q 46,809 49,208 37,636 -9,173 -19.6% -11,572 -23.5% 49,118 17,111 -29,698 -63.4% -20,525 -54.5% -32,008 -65.2%
2Q 46,706 49,845 4,537 -42,169 -90.3% -45,308 -90.9% 51,246 18,525 -28,182 -60.3% 13,987 308.3% -32,721 -63.9%
-80% Scenario 2
3Q 51,576 52,941 10,778 -40,798 -79.1% -42,163 -79.6% 54,000 25,308 -26,268 -50.9% 14,530 134.8% -28,692 -53.1% Scenario 2a
4Q 48,134 49,559 14,614 -33,520 -69.6% -34,945 -70.5% 51,361 30,443 -17,691 -36.8% 15,829 108.3% -20,918 -40.7% Reference
Total 193,225 201,553 67,566 -125,659 -65.0% -133,987 -66.5% 205,725 91,387 -101,838 -52.7% 23,821 35.3% -114,338 -55.6% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Jul 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Middle East International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 17,149 10,847 10,847 10,847 10,847 10,847 -5,363 -33.1% 4,937 83.6% -6,302 -36.8%
February 15,971 10,022 10,022 10,022 10,022 10,022 -4,504 -31.0% 4,806 92.1% -5,949 -37.2%
March 16,538 12,055 12,055 12,055 12,055 12,055 -4,017 -25.0% 6,070 101.4% -4,483 -27.1%
April 16,973 11,899 11,899 11,899 11,899 11,899 -3,453 -22.5% 5,846 96.6% -5,075 -29.9%
May 18,443 13,012 13,012 13,012 13,012 13,012 -1,940 -13.0% 7,065 118.8% -5,431 -29.4%
June 17,787 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 -3,403 -20.7% 6,475 99.2% -4,787 -26.9%
July 18,788 14,983 14,983 14,983 14,983 14,983 -2,380 -13.7% 6,863 84.5% -3,804 -20.2%
August 19,151 15,063 15,063 15,063 15,063 15,063 -2,975 -16.5% 6,506 76.0% -4,088 -21.3%
September 17,300 13,922 13,922 13,922 13,922 13,922 -2,252 -13.9% 5,292 61.3% -3,378 -19.5%
October 17,698 14,042 14,042 14,042 14,042 14,042 -2,056 -12.8% 4,582 48.4% -3,655 -20.7%
November 16,985 13,488 13,488 13,488 13,488 13,488 -1,977 -12.8% 3,593 36.3% -3,498 -20.6%
December 18,578 14,585 14,483 14,586 14,583 12,111 -2,088 to -1,985 -12.6% to -12.0% 3,395 to 3,498 30.6% to 31.5% -4,095 to -3,992 -22.0% to -21.5%
1Q 49,659 32,924 32,924 32,924 32,924 32,924 -13,884 -29.7% 15,814 92.4% -16,734 -33.7%
2Q 53,203 37,911 37,911 37,911 37,911 37,911 -8,796 -18.8% 19,386 104.7% -15,292 -28.7%
3Q 55,239 43,968 43,968 43,968 43,968 43,968 -7,607 -14.7% 18,661 73.7% -11,270 -20.4%
4Q 53,261 42,115 42,013 42,116 42,113 39,641 -6,121 to -6,018 -12.7% to -12.5% 11,570 to 11,673 38.0% to 38.3% -11,248 to -11,145 -21.1% to -20.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 91


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Middle East Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 Middle East (Domestic)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 4,760 4,438 4,046 -714 -15.0% -392 -8.8% 4,285 3,215 -1,545 -32.5% -831 -20.5% -1,070 -25.0%
February 4,186 4,039 4,294 108 2.6% 255 6.3% 3,790 2,942 -1,244 -29.7% -1,352 -31.5% -848 -22.4%
March 4,600 4,271 2,675 -1,925 -41.8% -1,596 -37.4% 3,995 3,165 -1,435 -31.2% 490 18.3% -829 -20.8%
April 4,355 4,324 191 -4,164 -95.6% -4,133 -95.6% 4,186 3,254 -1,100 -25.3% 3,064 1605.4% -931 -22.2%
-20%
May 4,586 4,553 271 -4,315 -94.1% -4,283 -94.1% 4,383 3,614 -972 -21.2% 3,343 1234.9% -769 -17.5%
June 4,369 4,338 1,115 -3,254 -74.5% -3,223 -74.3% 4,134 3,738 -631 -14.4% 2,623 235.1% -396 -9.6%
July 4,598 4,566 1,748 -2,851 -62.0% -2,818 -61.7% 4,349 3,700 -899 -19.5% 1,952 111.7% -650 -14.9% -40%
August 4,639 4,606 2,267 -2,372 -51.1% -2,339 -50.8% 4,415 3,629 -1,009 -21.8% 1,363 60.1% -785 -17.8%
September 4,394 4,363 2,327 -2,067 -47.0% -2,036 -46.7% 4,205 3,205 -1,189 -27.1% 878 37.8% -1,000 -23.8%
Actual
October 4,406 3,943 2,766 -1,640 -37.2% -1,177 -29.8% 3,553 3,312 -1,094 -24.8% 546 19.7% -241 -6.8% -60%
November 4,084 3,635 2,921 -1,164 -28.5% -714 -19.6% 3,257 3,459 -626 -15.3% 538 18.4% 201 6.2% Scenario 1
December 4,292 3,946 3,220 -1,072 -25.0% -726 -18.4% 3,653 3,432 -860 -20.0% 212 6.6% -221 -6.0% Scenario 1a
1Q 13,546 12,749 11,015 -2,531 -18.7% -1,734 -13.6% 12,070 9,323 -4,223 -31.2% -1,693 -15.4% -2,747 -22.8% Scenario 2
2Q 13,309 13,216 1,577 -11,732 -88.2% -11,639 -88.1% 12,702 10,606 -2,703 -20.3% 9,029 572.6% -2,096 -16.5%
-80%
3Q 13,631 13,535 6,341 -7,290 -53.5% -7,194 -53.1% 12,970 10,535 -3,097 -22.7% 4,193 66.1% -2,435 -18.8%
Scenario 2a
4Q 12,783 11,523 8,907 -3,876 -30.3% -2,616 -22.7% 10,464 10,203 -2,580 -20.2% 1,296 14.6% -261 -2.5% Reference
Total 53,270 51,023 27,840 -25,429 -47.7% -23,182 -45.4% 48,205 40,667 -12,603 -23.7% 12,826 46.1% -7,539 -15.6% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Middle East Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 4,431 2,788 2,788 2,788 2,788 2,788 -1,972 -41.4% -427 -13.3% -1,643 -37.1%
February 3,919 2,583 2,583 2,583 2,583 2,583 -1,603 -38.3% -359 -12.2% -1,335 -34.1%
March 4,130 2,895 2,895 2,895 2,895 2,895 -1,705 -37.1% -271 -8.6% -1,236 -29.9%
April 4,328 2,846 2,846 2,846 2,846 2,846 -1,509 -34.6% -408 -12.5% -1,482 -34.2%
May 4,532 2,796 2,796 2,796 2,796 2,796 -1,790 -39.0% -818 -22.6% -1,736 -38.3%
June 4,275 2,741 2,741 2,741 2,741 2,741 -1,628 -37.3% -997 -26.7% -1,534 -35.9%
July 4,497 2,846 2,846 2,846 2,846 2,846 -1,753 -38.1% -854 -23.1% -1,652 -36.7%
August 4,565 2,883 2,883 2,883 2,883 2,883 -1,756 -37.8% -746 -20.6% -1,682 -36.8%
September 4,348 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 2,683 -1,711 -38.9% -522 -16.3% -1,665 -38.3%
October 3,674 2,752 2,752 2,752 2,752 2,752 -1,654 -37.5% -560 -16.9% -922 -25.1%
November 3,368 2,680 2,680 2,680 2,680 2,680 -1,404 -34.4% -778 -22.5% -688 -20.4%
December 3,777 3,113 2,946 3,071 3,045 2,755 -1,346 to -1,180 -31.4% to -27.5% -486 to -320 -14.2% to -9.3% -831 to -665 -22.0% to -17.6%
1Q 12,480 8,266 8,266 8,266 8,266 8,266 -5,280 -39.0% -1,057 -11.3% -4,215 -33.8%
2Q 13,134 8,382 8,382 8,382 8,382 8,382 -4,927 -37.0% -2,224 -21.0% -4,752 -36.2%
3Q 13,410 8,412 8,412 8,412 8,412 8,412 -5,220 -38.3% -2,123 -20.2% -4,999 -37.3%
4Q 10,819 8,545 8,378 8,503 8,477 8,187 -4,405 to -4,238 -34.5% to -33.2% -1,825 to -1,659 -17.9% to -16.3% -2,441 to -2,275 -22.6% to -21.0%
Total 49,844 33,604 33,438 33,563 33,537 33,247 -19,832 to -19,665 -37.2% to -36.9% -7,229 to -7,062 -17.8% to -17.4% -16,406 to -16,240 -32.9% to -32.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 92


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Middle East International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Middle East (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 20,970 21,330 19,773 -1,198 -5.7% -1,558 -7.3% 21,220 9,125 -11,846 -56.5% -10,648 -53.9% -12,096 -57.0%
February 18,712 19,609 18,507 -206 -1.1% -1,103 -5.6% 19,440 8,159 -10,553 -56.4% -10,348 -55.9% -11,282 -58.0%
March 20,672 21,017 10,372 -10,300 -49.8% -10,645 -50.6% 20,528 9,150 -11,522 -55.7% -1,222 -11.8% -11,377 -55.4%
-20%
April 19,706 20,548 1,350 -18,356 -93.1% -19,198 -93.4% 20,702 9,307 -10,399 -52.8% 7,957 589.2% -11,395 -55.0%
May 19,538 21,191 1,492 -18,046 -92.4% -19,698 -93.0% 21,772 9,561 -9,977 -51.1% 8,069 540.6% -12,211 -56.1%
June 20,771 21,322 3,272 -17,500 -84.2% -18,050 -84.7% 21,474 10,263 -10,509 -50.6% 6,991 213.7% -11,211 -52.2%
July 21,961 22,496 4,849 -17,113 -77.9% -17,648 -78.4% 22,669 11,820 -10,141 -46.2% 6,972 143.8% -10,848 -47.9% -40%
August 22,677 23,010 5,902 -16,775 -74.0% -17,109 -74.4% 23,172 12,187 -10,490 -46.3% 6,285 106.5% -10,986 -47.4%
September 20,569 20,970 6,369 -14,200 -69.0% -14,601 -69.6% 21,128 11,836 -8,733 -42.5% 5,466 85.8% -9,293 -44.0%
Actual
October 20,505 20,503 7,396 -13,109 -63.9% -13,108 -63.9% 20,666 12,773 -7,732 -37.7% 5,377 72.7% -7,893 -38.2% -60%
November 19,549 19,374 7,646 -11,904 -60.9% -11,729 -60.5% 19,626 13,353 -6,196 -31.7% 5,708 74.7% -6,273 -32.0% Scenario 1
December 20,863 21,205 8,480 -12,383 -59.4% -12,725 -60.0% 21,533 14,520 -6,343 -30.4% 6,041 71.2% -7,012 -32.6% Scenario 1a
1Q 60,355 61,957 48,651 -11,703 -19.4% -13,305 -21.5% 61,188 26,433 -33,921 -56.2% -22,218 -45.7% -34,755 -56.8% Scenario 2
2Q 60,016 63,061 6,114 -53,901 -89.8% -56,946 -90.3% 63,948 29,131 -30,885 -51.5% 23,016 376.4% -34,817 -54.4%
-80%
Scenario 2a
3Q 65,207 66,476 17,119 -48,088 -73.7% -49,357 -74.2% 66,969 35,842 -29,365 -45.0% 18,723 109.4% -31,127 -46.5%
4Q 60,917 61,082 23,521 -37,396 -61.4% -37,561 -61.5% 61,825 40,646 -20,270 -33.3% 17,125 72.8% -21,178 -34.3% Reference
Total 246,494 252,576 95,406 -151,088 -61.3% -157,170 -62.2% 253,930 132,053 -114,441 -46.4% 36,647 38.4% -121,877 -48.0% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Jan 21

Jan 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - Middle East International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 21,580 13,634 13,634 13,634 13,634 13,634 -7,336 -35.0% 4,510 49.4% -7,946 -36.8%
February 19,890 12,606 12,606 12,606 12,606 12,606 -6,107 -32.6% 4,447 54.5% -7,285 -36.6%
March 20,668 14,950 14,950 14,950 14,950 14,950 -5,722 -27.7% 5,800 63.4% -5,719 -27.7%
April 21,301 14,745 14,745 14,745 14,745 14,745 -4,962 -25.2% 5,438 58.4% -6,556 -30.8%
May 22,975 15,808 15,808 15,808 15,808 15,808 -3,730 -19.1% 6,247 65.3% -7,167 -31.2%
June 22,061 15,741 15,741 15,741 15,741 15,741 -5,031 -24.2% 5,478 53.4% -6,321 -28.7%
July 23,285 17,829 17,829 17,829 17,829 17,829 -4,133 -18.8% 6,009 50.8% -5,456 -23.4%
August 23,716 17,946 17,946 17,946 17,946 17,946 -4,731 -20.9% 5,759 47.3% -5,770 -24.3%
September 21,648 16,605 16,605 16,605 16,605 16,605 -3,963 -19.3% 4,770 40.3% -5,043 -23.3%
October 21,372 16,794 16,794 16,794 16,794 16,794 -3,710 -18.1% 4,021 31.5% -4,577 -21.4%
November 20,354 16,168 16,168 16,168 16,168 16,168 -3,381 -17.3% 2,815 21.1% -4,186 -20.6%
December 22,355 17,697 17,429 17,657 17,628 14,866 -3,434 to -3,166 -16.5% to -15.2% 2,908 to 3,177 20.0% to 21.9% -4,927 to -4,658 -22.0% to -20.8%
1Q 62,139 41,190 41,190 41,190 41,190 41,190 -19,165 -31.8% 14,757 55.8% -20,949 -33.7%
2Q 66,337 46,293 46,293 46,293 46,293 46,293 -13,723 -22.9% 17,162 58.9% -20,044 -30.2%
3Q 68,649 52,380 52,380 52,380 52,380 52,380 -12,827 -19.7% 16,538 46.1% -16,269 -23.7%
4Q 64,081 50,659 50,391 50,620 50,590 47,828 -10,526 to -10,257 -17.3% to -16.8% 9,744 to 10,013 24.0% to 24.6% -13,690 to -13,421 -21.4% to -20.9%
Total 261,206 190,523 190,254 190,483 190,453 187,692 -56,240 to -55,972 -22.8% to -22.7% 58,201 to 58,470 44.1% to 44.3% -70,951 to -70,683 -27.2% to -27.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 93


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Middle East International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Middle East (International)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 12,111 12,667 12,564 453 3.7% -103 -0.8% 12,745 2,373 -9,738 -80.4% -10,190 -81.1% -10,371 -81.4%
February 10,571 11,373 10,378 -193 -1.8% -995 -8.7% 11,472 1,992 -8,579 -81.2% -8,386 -80.8% -9,480 -82.6%
March 11,869 12,409 4,680 -7,188 -60.6% -7,729 -62.3% 12,298 2,403 -9,466 -79.8% -2,278 -48.7% -9,895 -80.5% -20%
April 12,305 13,050 337 -11,968 -97.3% -12,712 -97.4% 13,332 2,357 -9,948 -80.8% 2,020 598.9% -10,975 -82.3%
May 10,911 12,185 308 -10,603 -97.2% -11,877 -97.5% 12,783 2,268 -8,643 -79.2% 1,960 635.6% -10,515 -82.3%
June 12,503 12,989 742 -11,762 -94.1% -12,247 -94.3% 13,310 2,968 -9,535 -76.3% 2,226 300.2% -10,342 -77.7%
-40%
July 14,021 14,530 1,196 -12,825 -91.5% -13,334 -91.8% 14,899 4,172 -9,849 -70.2% 2,976 248.9% -10,726 -72.0%
August 14,745 15,097 1,342 -13,403 -90.9% -13,756 -91.1% 15,442 4,747 -9,998 -67.8% 3,405 253.8% -10,695 -69.3%
September 12,105 12,467 1,471 -10,634 -87.9% -10,997 -88.2% 12,749 4,386 -7,719 -63.8% 2,915 198.2% -8,363 -65.6%
-60% Actual
October 11,839 12,224 1,767 -10,072 -85.1% -10,457 -85.5% 12,677 5,209 -6,629 -56.0% 3,442 194.8% -7,468 -58.9%
November 11,359 11,608 1,744 -9,614 -84.6% -9,864 -85.0% 12,115 5,847 -5,511 -48.5% 4,103 235.2% -6,268 -51.7% Scenario 1
December 12,821 13,403 2,294 -10,527 -82.1% -11,109 -82.9% 13,936 7,099 -5,722 -44.6% 4,805 209.5% -6,837 -49.1% Scenario 1a
1Q 34,551 36,449 27,622 -6,929 -20.1% -8,827 -24.2% 36,514 6,768 -27,783 -80.4% -20,854 -75.5% -29,747 -81.5% -80% Scenario 2
2Q 35,720 38,224 1,387 -34,333 -96.1% -36,836 -96.4% 39,425 7,593 -28,127 -78.7% 6,206 447.3% -31,832 -80.7% Scenario 2a
3Q 40,871 42,095 4,008 -36,862 -90.2% -38,087 -90.5% 43,090 13,305 -27,565 -67.4% 9,297 231.9% -29,785 -69.1%
Reference
4Q 36,018 37,234 5,805 -30,213 -83.9% -31,429 -84.4% 38,729 18,155 -17,863 -49.6% 12,350 212.7% -20,573 -53.1% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 22
May 21
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jul 21
Total 147,160 154,002 38,823 -108,337 -73.6% -115,179 -74.8% 157,758 45,822 -101,338 -68.9% 6,999 18.0% -111,936 -71.0%

Jan 20

Jan 22
Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger Number (thousand) - Middle East International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 12,949 6,195 6,195 6,195 6,195 6,195 -5,916 -48.9% 3,821 161.0% -6,754 -52.2%
February 11,747 6,356 6,356 6,356 6,356 6,356 -4,215 -39.9% 4,365 219.1% -5,391 -45.9%
March 12,344 8,496 8,496 8,496 8,496 8,496 -3,372 -28.4% 6,094 253.6% -3,848 -31.2%
April 13,746 8,547 8,547 8,547 8,547 8,547 -3,758 -30.5% 6,190 262.6% -5,199 -37.8%
May 13,604 9,946 9,946 9,946 9,946 9,946 -966 -8.9% 7,678 338.5% -3,658 -26.9%
June 13,699 10,192 10,192 10,192 10,192 10,192 -2,312 -18.5% 7,224 243.4% -3,507 -25.6%
July 15,330 12,291 12,291 12,291 12,291 12,291 -1,730 -12.3% 8,119 194.6% -3,039 -19.8%
August 15,819 12,282 12,282 12,282 12,282 12,282 -2,464 -16.7% 7,534 158.7% -3,537 -22.4%
September 13,076 11,304 11,304 11,304 11,304 11,304 -800 -6.6% 6,918 157.7% -1,772 -13.6%
October 13,156 11,316 11,316 11,316 11,316 11,316 -522 -4.4% 6,107 117.2% -1,840 -14.0%
November 12,616 10,612 10,612 10,612 10,612 10,612 -747 -6.6% 4,765 81.5% -2,004 -15.9%
December 14,531 12,238 12,224 12,239 12,236 10,398 -597 to -583 -4.7% to -4.5% 5,125 to 5,139 72.2% to 72.4% -2,306 to -2,292 -15.9% to -15.8%
1Q 37,040 21,048 21,048 21,048 21,048 21,048 -13,503 -39.1% 14,280 211.0% -15,992 -43.2%
2Q 41,049 28,685 28,685 28,685 28,685 28,685 -7,035 -19.7% 21,091 277.8% -12,364 -30.1%
3Q 44,225 35,877 35,877 35,877 35,877 35,877 -4,994 -12.2% 22,571 169.6% -8,348 -18.9%
4Q 40,303 34,165 34,152 34,166 34,164 32,326 -1,866 to -1,852 -5.2% to -5.1% 15,997 to 16,011 88.1% to 88.2% -6,151 to -6,136 -15.3% to -15.2%
Total 162,617 119,774 119,761 119,775 119,772 117,935 -27,399 to -27,385 -18.6% to -18.6% 73,939 to 73,953 161.4% to 161.4% -42,856 to -42,842 -26.4% to -26.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 94


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Middle East Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Middle East (Domestic)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 3,495 3,267 3,184 -311 -8.9% -83 -2.5% 3,161 1,495 -2,001 -57.2% -1,689 -53.1% -1,666 -52.7% 0%
February 3,012 2,913 3,074 62 2.1% 161 5.5% 2,739 1,225 -1,787 -59.3% -1,849 -60.1% -1,514 -55.3%
March 3,395 3,160 1,579 -1,817 -53.5% -1,582 -50.0% 2,962 1,461 -1,935 -57.0% -118 -7.5% -1,501 -50.7%
April 3,439 3,422 64 -3,375 -98.1% -3,358 -98.1% 3,320 1,419 -2,020 -58.7% 1,355 2114.2% -1,901 -57.3% -20%
May 3,363 3,347 103 -3,261 -97.0% -3,245 -96.9% 3,229 1,589 -1,774 -52.8% 1,486 1449.2% -1,640 -50.8%
June 3,348 3,332 541 -2,807 -83.8% -2,791 -83.8% 3,182 1,842 -1,505 -45.0% 1,301 240.6% -1,340 -42.1%
July 3,706 3,689 838 -2,868 -77.4% -2,850 -77.3% 3,522 1,941 -1,765 -47.6% 1,103 131.6% -1,580 -44.9% -40%
August 3,724 3,707 1,061 -2,663 -71.5% -2,645 -71.4% 3,561 2,021 -1,703 -45.7% 960 90.4% -1,539 -43.2%
September 3,203 3,188 1,046 -2,157 -67.3% -2,141 -67.2% 3,079 1,722 -1,481 -46.2% 676 64.6% -1,357 -44.1%
October 3,160 2,834 1,284 -1,876 -59.4% -1,550 -54.7% 2,559 1,972 -1,188 -37.6% 688 53.6% -588 -23.0% Actual
-60%
November 2,973 2,651 1,339 -1,633 -54.9% -1,312 -49.5% 2,382 2,209 -764 -25.7% 869 64.9% -173 -7.3% Scenario 1
December 3,257 3,001 1,557 -1,700 -52.2% -1,444 -48.1% 2,785 2,379 -878 -27.0% 822 52.8% -406 -14.6% Scenario 1a
1Q 9,903 9,340 7,837 -2,066 -20.9% -1,503 -16.1% 8,862 4,181 -5,722 -57.8% -3,656 -46.7% -4,682 -52.8%
-80% Scenario 2
2Q 10,149 10,101 708 -9,442 -93.0% -9,394 -93.0% 9,731 4,850 -5,300 -52.2% 4,142 585.4% -4,881 -50.2%
3Q 10,634 10,583 2,946 -7,687 -72.3% -7,637 -72.2% 10,161 5,685 -4,948 -46.5% 2,739 93.0% -4,476 -44.1% Scenario 2a
4Q 9,390 8,487 4,180 -5,210 -55.5% -4,307 -50.7% 7,726 6,560 -2,830 -30.1% 2,380 56.9% -1,166 -15.1% Reference
Total 40,075 38,511 15,670 -24,405 -60.9% -22,841 -59.3% 36,480 21,275 -18,800 -46.9% 5,605 35.8% -15,205 -41.7% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 22
May 21
Mar 20

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jul 20

Mar 21

Jul 21
Jan 20

Jan 22
Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger Number (thousand) - Middle East Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 3,275 1,732 1,732 1,732 1,732 1,732 -1,764 -50.5% 237 15.9% -1,544 -47.1%
February 2,838 1,681 1,681 1,681 1,681 1,681 -1,331 -44.2% 456 37.2% -1,157 -40.8%
March 3,069 2,039 2,039 2,039 2,039 2,039 -1,356 -39.9% 579 39.6% -1,030 -33.6%
April 3,440 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 -1,458 -42.4% 562 39.6% -1,460 -42.4%
May 3,346 2,058 2,058 2,058 2,058 2,058 -1,306 -38.8% 469 29.5% -1,288 -38.5%
June 3,297 2,020 2,020 2,020 2,020 2,020 -1,327 -39.6% 178 9.7% -1,277 -38.7%
July 3,649 2,211 2,211 2,211 2,211 2,211 -1,495 -40.3% 270 13.9% -1,438 -39.4%
August 3,689 2,266 2,266 2,266 2,266 2,266 -1,458 -39.2% 245 12.1% -1,423 -38.6%
September 3,190 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075 -1,128 -35.2% 353 20.5% -1,115 -35.0%
October 2,652 2,119 2,119 2,119 2,119 2,119 -1,041 -32.9% 147 7.5% -533 -20.1%
November 2,468 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 2,046 -927 -31.2% -163 -7.4% -422 -17.1%
December 2,885 2,515 2,393 2,482 2,460 2,281 -864 to -742 -26.5% to -22.8% 14 to 135 0.6% to 5.7% -492 to -371 -17.1% to -12.8%
1Q 9,183 5,452 5,452 5,452 5,452 5,452 -4,450 -44.9% 1,272 30.4% -3,731 -40.6%
2Q 10,083 6,059 6,059 6,059 6,059 6,059 -4,091 -40.3% 1,209 24.9% -4,024 -39.9%
3Q 10,529 6,552 6,552 6,552 6,552 6,552 -4,081 -38.4% 867 15.3% -3,976 -37.8%
4Q 8,005 6,680 6,558 6,647 6,625 6,446 -2,831 to -2,710 -30.2% to -28.9% -1 to 120 0.0% to 1.8% -1,447 to -1,325 -18.1% to -16.6%
Total 37,799 24,743 24,621 24,710 24,688 24,509 -15,454 to -15,332 -38.6% to -38.3% 3,346 to 3,468 15.7% to 16.3% -13,178 to -13,056 -34.9% to -34.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 95


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - Middle East International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Middle East (Total)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 15,606 15,934 15,748 141 0.9% -186 -1.2% 15,906 3,868 -11,738 -75.2% -11,880 -75.4% -12,038 -75.7%
February 13,583 14,286 13,452 -131 -1.0% -834 -5.8% 14,211 3,217 -10,366 -76.3% -10,235 -76.1% -10,995 -77.4%
March 15,264 15,570 6,259 -9,005 -59.0% -9,311 -59.8% 15,260 3,864 -11,401 -74.7% -2,395 -38.3% -11,396 -74.7% -20%
April 15,744 16,472 401 -15,342 -97.5% -16,070 -97.6% 16,652 3,776 -11,968 -76.0% 3,375 840.8% -12,876 -77.3%
May 14,275 15,532 411 -13,864 -97.1% -15,121 -97.4% 16,011 3,857 -10,418 -73.0% 3,446 838.7% -12,155 -75.9%
June 15,851 16,321 1,283 -14,568 -91.9% -15,038 -92.1% 16,492 4,810 -11,041 -69.7% 3,528 275.0% -11,682 -70.8%
July 17,727 18,219 2,034 -15,693 -88.5% -16,185 -88.8% 18,420 6,114 -11,614 -65.5% 4,079 200.5% -12,306 -66.8% -40%
August 18,469 18,804 2,403 -16,066 -87.0% -16,401 -87.2% 19,003 6,769 -11,701 -63.4% 4,365 181.6% -12,234 -64.4%
September 15,308 15,655 2,517 -12,791 -83.6% -13,138 -83.9% 15,828 6,108 -9,199 -60.1% 3,591 142.7% -9,720 -61.4%
October 14,998 15,058 3,050 -11,948 -79.7% -12,007 -79.7% 15,237 7,181 -7,817 -52.1% 4,131 135.4% -8,056 -52.9% -60% Actual
November 14,331 14,259 3,084 -11,247 -78.5% -11,176 -78.4% 14,497 8,056 -6,276 -43.8% 4,972 161.2% -6,441 -44.4% Scenario 1
December 16,078 16,404 3,851 -12,228 -76.1% -12,553 -76.5% 16,720 9,478 -6,600 -41.1% 5,627 146.1% -7,242 -43.3% Scenario 1a
1Q 44,453 45,789 35,459 -8,995 -20.2% -10,331 -22.6% 45,377 10,948 -33,505 -75.4% -24,510 -69.1% -34,428 -75.9% -80% Scenario 2
2Q 45,869 48,325 2,095 -43,774 -95.4% -46,230 -95.7% 49,155 12,443 -33,426 -72.9% 10,348 494.0% -36,713 -74.7%
Scenario 2a
3Q 51,504 52,678 6,954 -44,550 -86.5% -45,723 -86.8% 53,251 18,990 -32,514 -63.1% 12,036 173.1% -34,261 -64.3%
4Q 45,408 45,721 9,985 -35,423 -78.0% -35,736 -78.2% 46,454 24,715 -20,693 -45.6% 14,730 147.5% -21,739 -46.8% Reference
Total 187,235 192,513 54,493 -132,742 -70.9% -138,020 -71.7% 194,238 67,097 -120,138 -64.2% 12,604 23.1% -127,141 -65.5% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 22
May 21
Mar 20

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jul 20

Mar 21

Jul 21
Jan 20

Jan 22
Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger Number (thousand) - Middle East International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 16,224 7,927 7,927 7,927 7,927 7,927 -7,680 -49.2% 4,059 104.9% -8,298 -51.1%
February 14,585 8,037 8,037 8,037 8,037 8,037 -5,546 -40.8% 4,820 149.9% -6,548 -44.9%
March 15,413 10,536 10,536 10,536 10,536 10,536 -4,728 -31.0% 6,672 172.7% -4,877 -31.6%
April 17,186 10,528 10,528 10,528 10,528 10,528 -5,216 -33.1% 6,752 178.8% -6,659 -38.7%
May 16,949 12,003 12,003 12,003 12,003 12,003 -2,271 -15.9% 8,146 211.2% -4,946 -29.2%
June 16,996 12,212 12,212 12,212 12,212 12,212 -3,639 -23.0% 7,402 153.9% -4,784 -28.1%
July 18,979 14,502 14,502 14,502 14,502 14,502 -3,225 -18.2% 8,388 137.2% -4,477 -23.6%
August 19,508 14,548 14,548 14,548 14,548 14,548 -3,922 -21.2% 7,779 114.9% -4,960 -25.4%
September 16,267 13,379 13,379 13,379 13,379 13,379 -1,928 -12.6% 7,271 119.0% -2,887 -17.7%
October 15,808 13,435 13,435 13,435 13,435 13,435 -1,563 -10.4% 6,254 87.1% -2,373 -15.0%
November 15,084 12,658 12,658 12,658 12,658 12,658 -1,674 -11.7% 4,602 57.1% -2,426 -16.1%
December 17,416 14,752 14,618 14,720 14,696 12,679 -1,461 to -1,326 -9.1% to -8.2% 5,139 to 5,274 54.2% to 55.6% -2,799 to -2,664 -16.1% to -15.3%
1Q 46,223 26,500 26,500 26,500 26,500 26,500 -17,954 -40.4% 15,551 142.0% -19,723 -42.7%
2Q 51,132 34,743 34,743 34,743 34,743 34,743 -11,126 -24.3% 22,300 179.2% -16,388 -32.1%
3Q 54,754 42,429 42,429 42,429 42,429 42,429 -9,075 -17.6% 23,438 123.4% -12,325 -22.5%
4Q 48,308 40,845 40,710 40,813 40,789 38,772 -4,698 to -4,563 -10.3% to -10.0% 15,995 to 16,130 64.7% to 65.3% -7,597 to -7,463 -15.7% to -15.4%
Total 200,416 144,517 144,382 144,485 144,461 142,444 -42,853 to -42,718 -22.9% to -22.8% 77,285 to 77,420 115.2% to 115.4% -56,033 to -55,899 -28.0% to -27.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 96


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Middle East International
Year 2019 2020 2021
Middle East (International)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
0.0
January 2,227 2,326 2,315 89 4.0% -11 -0.5% 2,348 443 -1,784 -80.1% -1,872 -80.9% -1,905 -81.1%
February 1,940 2,086 1,904 -37 -1.9% -182 -8.7% 2,106 370 -1,570 -80.9% -1,533 -80.5% -1,735 -82.4%
March 2,185 2,280 917 -1,268 -58.0% -1,363 -59.8% 2,265 448 -1,737 -79.5% -469 -51.1% -1,817 -80.2%
April 2,262 2,398 69 -2,194 -97.0% -2,329 -97.1% 2,455 436 -1,826 -80.7% 367 533.7% -2,019 -82.2% -0.5
May 2,019 2,247 60 -1,959 -97.0% -2,187 -97.3% 2,354 421 -1,598 -79.2% 361 601.1% -1,933 -82.1%

Billions (USD)
June 2,300 2,385 150 -2,149 -93.5% -2,234 -93.7% 2,446 556 -1,744 -75.8% 405 269.4% -1,891 -77.3%
July 2,590 2,671 236 -2,354 -90.9% -2,436 -91.2% 2,740 787 -1,803 -69.6% 551 234.0% -1,953 -71.3% -1.0
August 2,708 2,765 264 -2,444 -90.3% -2,502 -90.5% 2,830 896 -1,811 -66.9% 633 239.9% -1,934 -68.3%
September 2,227 2,290 285 -1,942 -87.2% -2,005 -87.5% 2,344 815 -1,412 -63.4% 530 185.7% -1,530 -65.2%
October 2,177 2,243 336 -1,841 -84.6% -1,907 -85.0% 2,326 955 -1,222 -56.1% 619 184.2% -1,371 -58.9% -1.5 Actual
November 2,095 2,152 327 -1,768 -84.4% -1,825 -84.8% 2,241 1,060 -1,035 -49.4% 733 224.1% -1,181 -52.7% Scenario 1
December 2,371 2,475 431 -1,940 -81.8% -2,044 -82.6% 2,574 1,274 -1,097 -46.3% 844 195.9% -1,300 -50.5% Scenario 1a
1Q 6,352 6,692 5,136 -1,216 -19.1% -1,556 -23.3% 6,719 1,262 -5,090 -80.1% -3,874 -75.4% -5,458 -81.2% Scenario 2
-2.0
2Q 6,581 7,029 279 -6,302 -95.8% -6,750 -96.0% 7,255 1,413 -5,168 -78.5% 1,133 405.8% -5,842 -80.5% Scenario 2a
3Q 7,525 7,727 784 -6,740 -89.6% -6,942 -89.8% 7,915 2,498 -5,026 -66.8% 1,714 218.4% -5,416 -68.4%
Reference
4Q 6,643 6,870 1,094 -5,549 -83.5% -5,776 -84.1% 7,142 3,289 -3,353 -50.5% 2,195 200.7% -3,852 -53.9%
Total 27,100 28,318 7,293 -19,807 -73.1% -21,025 -74.2% 29,030 8,462 -18,638 -68.8% 1,168 16.0% -20,568 -70.9% -2.5

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 22
Sep 21
Jul 20

Jul 22
Jul 21
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20

Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Jan 21

Jan 22
Jan 20
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Middle East International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 2,392 1,126 1,126 1,126 1,126 1,126 -1,101 -49.4% 683 154.1% -1,266 -52.9%
February 2,157 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 -784 -40.4% 786 212.2% -1,001 -46.4%
March 2,277 1,548 1,548 1,548 1,548 1,548 -637 -29.2% 1,100 245.4% -730 -32.0%
April 2,534 1,563 1,563 1,563 1,563 1,563 -699 -30.9% 1,127 258.5% -971 -38.3%
May 2,501 1,815 1,815 1,815 1,815 1,815 -204 -10.1% 1,394 331.3% -685 -27.4%
June 2,519 1,871 1,871 1,871 1,871 1,871 -428 -18.6% 1,315 236.6% -648 -25.7%
July 2,818 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 2,243 -346 -13.4% 1,456 185.1% -575 -20.4%
August 2,899 2,242 2,242 2,242 2,242 2,242 -466 -17.2% 1,346 150.2% -657 -22.6%
September 2,406 2,058 2,058 2,058 2,058 2,058 -169 -7.6% 1,244 152.6% -347 -14.4%
October 2,413 2,070 2,070 2,070 2,070 2,070 -107 -4.9% 1,115 116.7% -343 -14.2%
November 2,331 1,922 1,922 1,922 1,922 1,922 -173 -8.3% 862 81.3% -409 -17.6%
December 2,685 2,216 2,213 2,216 2,216 1,878 -157 to -155 -6.6% to -6.5% 939 to 942 73.7% to 73.9% -471 to -468 -17.5% to -17.4%
1Q 6,827 3,830 3,830 3,830 3,830 3,830 -2,522 -39.7% 2,568 203.6% -2,997 -43.9%
2Q 7,554 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 -1,332 -20.2% 3,837 271.6% -2,305 -30.5%
3Q 8,122 6,544 6,544 6,544 6,544 6,544 -981 -13.0% 4,046 162.0% -1,578 -19.4%
4Q 7,429 6,208 6,205 6,208 6,208 5,870 -437 to -434 -6.6% to -6.5% 2,916 to 2,919 88.7% to 88.7% -1,224 to -1,221 -16.5% to -16.4%
Total 29,933 21,831 21,829 21,831 21,831 21,493 -5,272 to -5,269 -19.5% to -19.4% 13,367 to 13,370 158.0% to 158.0% -8,104 to -8,101 -27.1% to -27.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 97


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Middle East Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Middle East (Domestic)
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0.0
January 330 309 301 -29 -8.9% -8 -2.5% 299 141 -189 -57.2% -160 -53.1% -157 -52.7%
February 285 275 291 6 2.1% 15 5.5% 259 116 -169 -59.3% -175 -60.1% -143 -55.3%
-0.1
March 321 299 149 -172 -53.5% -149 -50.0% 280 138 -183 -57.0% -11 -7.5% -142 -50.7%
April 325 323 6 -319 -98.1% -317 -98.1% 314 134 -191 -58.7% 128 2114.2% -180 -57.3%
May 318 316 10 -308 -97.0% -307 -96.9% 305 150 -168 -52.8% 140 1449.2% -155 -50.8% -0.1

Billions (USD)
June 316 315 51 -265 -83.8% -264 -83.8% 301 174 -142 -45.0% 123 240.6% -127 -42.1%
July 350 349 79 -271 -77.4% -269 -77.3% 333 183 -167 -47.6% 104 131.6% -149 -44.9% -0.2
August 352 350 100 -252 -71.5% -250 -71.4% 336 191 -161 -45.7% 91 90.4% -145 -43.2%
September 303 301 99 -204 -67.3% -202 -67.2% 291 163 -140 -46.2% 64 64.6% -128 -44.1%
October 299 268 121 -177 -59.4% -147 -54.7% 242 186 -112 -37.6% 65 53.6% -56 -23.0% -0.2
Actual
November 281 251 127 -154 -54.9% -124 -49.5% 225 209 -72 -25.7% 82 64.9% -16 -7.3%
December 308 284 147 -161 -52.2% -137 -48.1% 263 225 -83 -27.0% 78 52.8% -38 -14.6%
Scenario 1
-0.3
1Q 936 883 741 -195 -20.9% -142 -16.1% 838 395 -541 -57.8% -346 -46.7% -442 -52.8% Scenario 1a
2Q 959 955 67 -892 -93.0% -888 -93.0% 920 458 -501 -52.2% 391 585.4% -461 -50.2% Scenario 2
3Q 1,005 1,000 278 -727 -72.3% -722 -72.2% 960 537 -468 -46.5% 259 93.0% -423 -44.1% -0.3 Scenario 2a
4Q 887 802 395 -492 -55.5% -407 -50.7% 730 620 -267 -30.1% 225 56.9% -110 -15.1% Reference
Total 3,787 3,640 1,481 -2,306 -60.9% -2,159 -59.3% 3,448 2,011 -1,777 -46.9% 530 35.8% -1,437 -41.7% -0.4

Sep 20

Sep 22
May 21

Sep 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Middle East Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 310 164 164 164 164 164 -167 -50.5% 22 15.9% -146 -47.1%
February 268 159 159 159 159 159 -126 -44.2% 43 37.2% -109 -40.8%
March 290 193 193 193 193 193 -128 -39.9% 55 39.6% -97 -33.6%
April 325 187 187 187 187 187 -138 -42.4% 53 39.6% -138 -42.4%
May 316 194 194 194 194 194 -123 -38.8% 44 29.5% -122 -38.5%
June 312 191 191 191 191 191 -125 -39.6% 17 9.7% -121 -38.7%
July 345 209 209 209 209 209 -141 -40.3% 25 13.9% -136 -39.4%
August 349 214 214 214 214 214 -138 -39.2% 23 12.1% -135 -38.6%
September 302 196 196 196 196 196 -107 -35.2% 33 20.5% -105 -35.0%
October 251 200 200 200 200 200 -98 -32.9% 14 7.5% -50 -20.1%
November 233 193 193 193 193 193 -88 -31.2% -15 -7.4% -40 -17.1%
December 273 238 226 235 233 216 -82 to -70 -26.5% to -22.8% 1 to 13 0.6% to 5.7% -47 to -35 -17.1% to -12.8%
1Q 868 515 515 515 515 515 -421 -44.9% 120 30.4% -353 -40.6%
2Q 953 573 573 573 573 573 -387 -40.3% 114 24.9% -380 -39.9%
3Q 995 619 619 619 619 619 -386 -38.4% 82 15.3% -376 -37.8%
4Q 757 631 620 628 626 609 -268 to -256 -30.2% to -28.9% 0 to 11 0.0% to 1.8% -137 to -125 -18.1% to -16.6%
Total 3,572 2,338 2,327 2,335 2,333 2,316 -1,460 to -1,449 -38.6% to -38.3% 316 to 328 15.7% to 16.3% -1,245 to -1,234 -34.9% to -34.5%

Source: ICAO estimates 98


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Middle East International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline Middle East (Total)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 2,557 2,635 2,616 59 2.3% -19 -0.7% 2,647 584 -1,973 -77.1% -2,032 -77.7% -2,063 -77.9% 0.0
February 2,225 2,361 2,194 -31 -1.4% -167 -7.1% 2,365 486 -1,739 -78.1% -1,708 -77.8% -1,878 -79.4%
March 2,506 2,579 1,066 -1,440 -57.5% -1,513 -58.7% 2,545 586 -1,920 -76.6% -480 -45.0% -1,959 -77.0%
April 2,587 2,722 75 -2,513 -97.1% -2,647 -97.2% 2,768 570 -2,017 -78.0% 495 661.6% -2,198 -79.4% -0.5
May 2,337 2,563 70 -2,267 -97.0% -2,493 -97.3% 2,659 571 -1,766 -75.6% 501 719.0% -2,088 -78.5%
June 2,616 2,700 202 -2,414 -92.3% -2,498 -92.5% 2,747 730 -1,886 -72.1% 528 262.1% -2,017 -73.4%

Billions (USD)
-1.0
July 2,940 3,020 315 -2,625 -89.3% -2,705 -89.6% 3,073 970 -1,970 -67.0% 656 208.2% -2,103 -68.4%
August 3,060 3,116 364 -2,696 -88.1% -2,752 -88.3% 3,166 1,087 -1,972 -64.5% 723 198.7% -2,079 -65.7%
September 2,530 2,591 384 -2,146 -84.8% -2,207 -85.2% 2,635 978 -1,552 -61.4% 594 154.6% -1,658 -62.9% -1.5
October 2,475 2,511 457 -2,018 -81.5% -2,054 -81.8% 2,568 1,141 -1,334 -53.9% 684 149.6% -1,427 -55.6%
November 2,376 2,402 454 -1,922 -80.9% -1,949 -81.1% 2,466 1,269 -1,108 -46.6% 815 179.6% -1,197 -48.6% Actual
December 2,679 2,759 578 -2,101 -78.4% -2,181 -79.1% 2,838 1,499 -1,179 -44.0% 921 159.4% -1,338 -47.2% -2.0 Scenario 1
1Q 7,288 7,575 5,876 -1,411 -19.4% -1,698 -22.4% 7,557 1,657 -5,631 -77.3% -4,220 -71.8% -5,900 -78.1% Scenario 1a
2Q 7,540 7,984 346 -7,194 -95.4% -7,638 -95.7% 8,174 1,871 -5,669 -75.2% 1,525 440.5% -6,303 -77.1% Scenario 2
3Q 8,529 8,727 1,063 -7,467 -87.5% -7,664 -87.8% 8,875 3,035 -5,494 -64.4% 1,972 185.6% -5,839 -65.8% -2.5
Scenario 2a
4Q 7,530 7,672 1,489 -6,041 -80.2% -6,183 -80.6% 7,872 3,909 -3,621 -48.1% 2,420 162.6% -3,962 -50.3%
Reference
Total 30,888 31,958 8,774 -22,113 -71.6% -23,183 -72.5% 32,478 10,472 -20,415 -66.1% 1,698 19.4% -22,005 -67.8%
-3.0

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 22
Sep 21
Jul 20

Jul 22
Jul 21
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20

Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 21

Jan 22

Nov 22
Jan 20
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - Middle East International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 2,702 1,289 1,289 1,289 1,289 1,289 -1,268 -49.6% 705 120.7% -1,412 -52.3%
February 2,426 1,315 1,315 1,315 1,315 1,315 -910 -40.9% 829 170.5% -1,110 -45.8%
March 2,567 1,740 1,740 1,740 1,740 1,740 -765 -30.5% 1,154 196.9% -827 -32.2%
April 2,859 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 -837 -32.4% 1,180 207.0% -1,109 -38.8%
May 2,817 2,010 2,010 2,010 2,010 2,010 -327 -14.0% 1,439 252.0% -807 -28.7%
June 2,831 2,062 2,062 2,062 2,062 2,062 -554 -21.2% 1,332 182.5% -769 -27.2%
July 3,163 2,452 2,452 2,452 2,452 2,452 -488 -16.6% 1,482 152.7% -710 -22.5%
August 3,247 2,456 2,456 2,456 2,456 2,456 -603 -19.7% 1,369 125.9% -791 -24.4%
September 2,707 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,255 2,255 -275 -10.9% 1,277 130.6% -453 -16.7%
October 2,664 2,270 2,270 2,270 2,270 2,270 -205 -8.3% 1,129 98.9% -394 -14.8%
November 2,565 2,115 2,115 2,115 2,115 2,115 -261 -11.0% 847 66.7% -449 -17.5%
December 2,957 2,454 2,440 2,451 2,448 2,094 -239 to -225 -8.9% to -8.4% 940 to 955 62.7% to 63.7% -518 to -503 -17.5% to -17.0%
1Q 7,695 4,345 4,345 4,345 4,345 4,345 -2,943 -40.4% 2,688 162.3% -3,350 -43.5%
2Q 8,507 5,822 5,822 5,822 5,822 5,822 -1,718 -22.8% 3,951 211.2% -2,685 -31.6%
3Q 9,117 7,163 7,163 7,163 7,163 7,163 -1,366 -16.0% 4,128 136.0% -1,954 -21.4%
4Q 8,186 6,839 6,825 6,836 6,834 6,479 -705 to -691 -9.4% to -9.2% 2,916 to 2,930 74.6% to 75.0% -1,361 to -1,346 -16.6% to -16.4%
Total 33,505 24,170 24,156 24,167 24,164 23,809 -6,732 to -6,718 -21.8% to -21.7% 13,683 to 13,697 130.7% to 130.8% -9,350 to -9,335 -27.9% to -27.9%

Source: ICAO estimates 99


North America

Compared to Seat capacity (%) Passenger number (thousand) Passenger revenue (USD, million)
2019 Total International Domestic Total International Domestic Total International Domestic
1Q 2020 -2.5% -16.4% 0.3% -30,667 -13.4% -7,828 -20.9% -22,839 -11.9% -4,741 -2,049 -2,691
2Q 2020 -71.4% -91.9% -67.3% -228,600 -87.2% -39,688 -96.7% -188,913 -85.4% -32,899 -10,637 -22,262
3Q 2020 -50.2% -81.2% -44.0% -185,282 -69.8% -39,406 -90.8% -145,876 -65.7% -28,003 -10,813 -17,190
4Q 2020 -44.2% -68.9% -39.7% -152,934 -62.5% -30,518 -82.7% -122,416 -58.9% -22,749 -8,324 -14,426
Total 2020 -42.8% -65.3% -38.4% -597,483 -59.6% -117,440 -73.9% -480,043 -56.9% -88,392 -31,823 -56,569
1Q 2021 -40.0% -64.1% -35.1% -133,308 -58.1% -30,396 -81.0% -102,912 -53.6% -20,100 -7,973 -12,127
2Q 2021 -28.3% -60.9% -21.9% -93,516 -35.7% -30,840 -75.1% -62,676 -28.3% -15,953 -8,567 -7,386
3Q 2021 -19.5% -53.0% -12.9% -62,654 -23.6% -27,889 -64.3% -34,765 -15.7% -12,144 -8,047 -4,097
4Q 2021 -14.6% -39.3% -10.1% -39,879 -16.3% -18,434 -50.0% -21,446 -10.3% -7,972 -5,445 -2,527
Total 2021 -25.4% -54.5% -19.7% -329,358 -32.9% -107,559 -67.7% -221,799 -26.3% -56,169 -30,031 -26,137
1Q 2022 -7.2% -25.7% -3.4% -28,333 -12.3% -14,306 -38.1% -14,027 -7.3% -5,543 -3,890 -1,653
2Q 2022 -4.8% -14.3% -2.9% -9,808 -3.7% -6,522 -15.9% -3,286 -1.5% -2,436 -2,049 -387
3Q 2022 -4.7% -13.6% -3.0% -11,958 -4.5% -5,364 -12.4% -6,593 -3.0% -2,423 -1,646 -777
4Q 2022 -0.6% to -0.2% -8.6% to -8.1% 0.8% to 1.3% 8,012 to 9,047 3.3% to 3.7% -2,462 to -2,290 -6.7% to -6.2% 10,302 to 11,351 5.0% to 5.5% 372 to 506 -875 to -828 1,214 to 1,338
Total 2022 -4.3% to -4.2% -15.5% to -15.4% -2.1% to -2.0% -42,087 to -41,052 -4.2% to -4.1% -28,654 to -28,483 -18.0% to -17.9% -13,605 to -12,556 -1.6% to -1.5% -10,031 to -9,897 -8,460 to -8,414 -1,603 to -1,480

100
Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - North America International
Year 2019 2020 2021 North America (International)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0%
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 16,123 15,531 15,075 -1,047 -6.5% -456 -2.9% 15,454 6,128 -9,994 -62.0% -8,947 -59.3% -9,325 -60.3%
February 14,389 14,414 13,554 -835 -5.8% -861 -6.0% 14,349 5,035 -9,354 -65.0% -8,519 -62.9% -9,314 -64.9%
March 16,733 16,197 10,872 -5,861 -35.0% -5,325 -32.9% 16,135 5,794 -10,939 -65.4% -5,078 -46.7% -10,341 -64.1% -20%
April 16,179 16,327 1,290 -14,889 -92.0% -15,037 -92.1% 16,611 5,891 -10,288 -63.6% 4,601 356.6% -10,720 -64.5%
May 16,468 16,738 1,137 -15,331 -93.1% -15,602 -93.2% 17,074 6,486 -9,982 -60.6% 5,349 470.6% -10,588 -62.0%
June 17,146 17,418 1,597 -15,548 -90.7% -15,821 -90.8% 17,668 7,068 -10,078 -58.8% 5,471 342.5% -10,600 -60.0%
July 18,168 18,540 3,004 -15,164 -83.5% -15,536 -83.8% 19,026 8,036 -10,132 -55.8% 5,032 167.5% -10,990 -57.8%
-40%
August 17,826 18,126 3,411 -14,415 -80.9% -14,715 -81.2% 18,594 8,411 -9,415 -52.8% 4,999 146.6% -10,183 -54.8%
September 15,609 15,997 3,306 -12,303 -78.8% -12,691 -79.3% 16,394 7,828 -7,781 -49.8% 4,522 136.8% -8,566 -52.3%
Actual
October 15,382 14,986 3,993 -11,388 -74.0% -10,992 -73.4% 15,353 8,360 -7,022 -45.6% 4,367 109.4% -6,992 -45.5% -60%
November 14,326 13,882 4,542 -9,785 -68.3% -9,341 -67.3% 14,253 8,892 -5,434 -37.9% 4,350 95.8% -5,361 -37.6% Scenario 1
December 16,013 15,568 5,686 -10,327 -64.5% -9,883 -63.5% 15,954 10,490 -5,523 -34.5% 4,804 84.5% -5,464 -34.2% Scenario 1a
1Q 47,244 46,142 39,500 -7,744 -16.4% -6,642 -14.4% 45,937 16,957 -30,287 -64.1% -22,543 -57.1% -28,980 -63.1%
-80% Scenario 2
2Q 49,793 50,484 4,024 -45,769 -91.9% -46,459 -92.0% 51,353 19,445 -30,348 -60.9% 15,421 383.2% -31,908 -62.1%
3Q 51,602 52,663 9,721 -41,882 -81.2% -42,942 -81.5% 54,014 24,275 -27,328 -53.0% 14,554 149.7% -29,739 -55.1% Scenario 2a
4Q 45,720 44,436 14,221 -31,500 -68.9% -30,216 -68.0% 45,560 27,742 -17,978 -39.3% 13,522 95.1% -17,818 -39.1% Reference
Total 194,360 193,725 67,466 -126,894 -65.3% -126,259 -65.2% 196,863 88,419 -105,941 -54.5% 20,953 31.1% -108,445 -55.1% -100%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Jul 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - North America International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 15,339 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 11,861 -4,262 -26.4% 5,732 93.5% -3,478 -22.7%
February 14,349 10,332 10,332 10,332 10,332 10,332 -4,057 -28.2% 5,297 105.2% -4,017 -28.0%
March 16,027 12,929 12,929 12,929 12,929 12,929 -3,804 -22.7% 7,135 123.2% -3,098 -19.3%
April 16,912 13,526 13,526 13,526 13,526 13,526 -2,654 -16.4% 7,635 129.6% -3,386 -20.0%
May 17,445 14,184 14,184 14,184 14,184 14,184 -2,284 -13.9% 7,698 118.7% -3,261 -18.7%
June 17,967 14,985 14,985 14,985 14,985 14,985 -2,161 -12.6% 7,917 112.0% -2,982 -16.6%
July 19,543 16,013 16,013 16,013 16,013 16,013 -2,154 -11.9% 7,977 99.3% -3,530 -18.1%
August 19,081 14,613 14,613 14,613 14,613 14,613 -3,213 -18.0% 6,203 73.7% -4,467 -23.4%
September 16,834 13,955 13,955 13,955 13,955 13,955 -1,654 -10.6% 6,127 78.3% -2,878 -17.1%
October 15,601 13,980 13,980 13,980 13,980 13,980 -1,402 -9.1% 5,620 67.2% -1,621 -10.4%
November 14,495 13,179 13,179 13,179 13,179 13,179 -1,147 -8.0% 4,287 48.2% -1,316 -9.1%
December 16,217 14,832 14,626 14,849 14,804 15,297 -1,386 to -1,164 -8.7% to -7.3% 4,136 to 4,359 39.4% to 41.5% -1,591 to -1,368 -9.8% to -8.4%
1Q 45,715 35,121 35,121 35,121 35,121 35,121 -12,123 -25.7% 18,164 107.1% -10,594 -23.2%
2Q 52,323 42,694 42,694 42,694 42,694 42,694 -7,099 -14.3% 23,249 119.6% -9,629 -18.4%
3Q 55,457 44,582 44,582 44,582 44,582 44,582 -7,021 -13.6% 20,307 83.7% -10,876 -19.6%
4Q 46,313 41,991 41,785 42,007 41,962 42,456 -3,936 to -3,713 -8.6% to -8.1% 14,043 to 14,265 50.6% to 51.4% -4,528 to -4,306 -9.8% to -9.3%
Total 199,809 164,388 164,182 164,404 164,359 164,853 -30,178 to -29,955 -15.5% to -15.4% 75,763 to 75,986 85.7% to 85.9% -35,627 to -35,404 -17.8% to -17.7%

Source: ICAO estimates 101


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - North America Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 North America (Domestic)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 77,957 79,697 82,195 4,238 5.4% 2,497 3.1% 82,056 47,913 -30,044 -38.5% -34,281 -41.7% -34,142 -41.6% 0%
February 71,274 75,147 77,641 6,366 8.9% 2,494 3.3% 77,042 44,206 -27,068 -38.0% -33,434 -43.1% -32,835 -42.6%
March 84,322 85,837 74,305 -10,017 -11.9% -11,532 -13.4% 88,000 59,476 -24,846 -29.5% -14,829 -20.0% -28,525 -32.4%
April 81,532 84,630 28,224 -53,308 -65.4% -56,406 -66.6% 87,454 60,410 -21,123 -25.9% 32,185 114.0% -27,045 -30.9% -20%
May 85,404 89,196 23,659 -61,745 -72.3% -65,537 -73.5% 92,616 65,544 -19,860 -23.3% 41,885 177.0% -27,072 -29.2%
June 85,422 90,363 30,654 -54,769 -64.1% -59,710 -66.1% 92,508 71,097 -14,326 -16.8% 40,443 131.9% -21,412 -23.1%
July 88,822 95,113 48,576 -40,246 -45.3% -46,537 -48.9% 100,493 77,411 -11,411 -12.8% 28,835 59.4% -23,083 -23.0% -40%
August 88,556 91,950 52,131 -36,425 -41.1% -39,819 -43.3% 95,325 76,953 -11,603 -13.1% 24,822 47.6% -18,372 -19.3%
September 81,614 86,682 44,357 -37,257 -45.6% -42,324 -48.8% 91,524 71,265 -10,349 -12.7% 26,907 60.7% -20,259 -22.1% Actual
October 85,483 88,018 48,606 -36,878 -43.1% -39,412 -44.8% 91,272 75,600 -9,883 -11.6% 26,995 55.5% -15,671 -17.2% -60% Scenario 1
November 80,501 82,102 50,417 -30,084 -37.4% -31,684 -38.6% 84,329 75,605 -4,896 -6.1% 25,188 50.0% -8,724 -10.3%
Scenario 1a
December 83,164 86,452 51,180 -31,985 -38.5% -35,272 -40.8% 90,508 72,844 -10,321 -12.4% 21,664 42.3% -17,664 -19.5%
1Q 233,553 240,681 234,140 587 0.3% -6,541 -2.7% 247,097 151,595 -81,958 -35.1% -82,545 -35.3% -95,502 -38.6% Scenario 2
-80%
2Q 252,359 264,190 82,537 -169,822 -67.3% -181,653 -68.8% 272,578 197,050 -55,309 -21.9% 114,513 138.7% -75,528 -27.7% Scenario 2a
3Q 258,991 273,744 145,064 -113,927 -44.0% -128,680 -47.0% 287,342 225,628 -33,363 -12.9% 80,564 55.5% -61,714 -21.5% Reference
4Q 249,149 256,571 150,203 -98,946 -39.7% -106,368 -41.5% 266,108 224,050 -25,100 -10.1% 73,847 49.2% -42,059 -15.8%
-100%
Total 994,053 1,035,187 611,944 -382,108 -38.4% -423,242 -40.9% 1,073,126 798,323 -195,729 -19.7% 186,379 30.5% -274,802 -25.6%

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Mar 20

Jul 20

Mar 21

Jul 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - North America Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 84,484 75,502 75,502 75,502 75,502 75,502 -2,455 -3.1% 27,589 57.6% -8,982 -10.6%
February 79,548 69,888 69,888 69,888 69,888 69,888 -1,386 -1.9% 25,682 58.1% -9,660 -12.1%
March 90,218 80,183 80,183 80,183 80,183 80,183 -4,139 -4.9% 20,708 34.8% -10,035 -11.1%
April 90,582 78,553 78,553 78,553 78,553 78,553 -2,979 -3.7% 18,144 30.0% -12,029 -13.3%
May 96,416 82,667 82,667 82,667 82,667 82,667 -2,737 -3.2% 17,123 26.1% -13,749 -14.3%
June 95,474 83,699 83,699 83,699 83,699 83,699 -1,723 -2.0% 12,602 17.7% -11,775 -12.3%
July 106,618 87,224 87,224 87,224 87,224 87,224 -1,598 -1.8% 9,813 12.7% -19,394 -18.2%
August 98,995 82,064 82,064 82,064 82,064 82,064 -6,492 -7.3% 5,111 6.6% -16,931 -17.1%
September 96,889 82,063 82,063 82,063 82,063 82,063 448 0.5% 10,798 15.2% -14,826 -15.3%
October 94,646 85,254 85,254 85,254 85,254 85,254 -229 -0.3% 9,654 12.8% -9,391 -9.9%
November 86,617 81,482 81,482 81,482 81,482 81,482 980 1.2% 5,876 7.8% -5,135 -5.9%
December 94,754 85,656 84,553 84,474 85,271 67,229 1,310 to 2,491 1.6% to 3.0% 11,630 to 12,812 16.0% to 17.6% -10,280 to -9,098 -10.8% to -9.6%
1Q 254,250 225,573 225,573 225,573 225,573 225,573 -7,980 -3.4% 73,978 48.8% -28,677 -11.3%
2Q 282,472 244,919 244,919 244,919 244,919 244,919 -7,440 -2.9% 47,869 24.3% -37,553 -13.3%
3Q 302,502 251,351 251,351 251,351 251,351 251,351 -7,641 -3.0% 25,722 11.4% -51,151 -16.9%
4Q 276,016 252,392 251,290 251,210 252,007 233,965 2,061 to 3,243 0.8% to 1.3% 27,160 to 28,342 12.1% to 12.7% -24,806 to -23,624 -9.0% to -8.6%
Total 1,115,240 974,235 973,133 973,053 973,850 955,808 -21,000 to -19,818 -2.1% to -2.0% 174,730 to 175,912 21.9% to 22.0% -142,187 to -141,005 -12.7% to -12.6%

Source: ICAO estimates 102


Seat capacity
Seat Capacity (thousand) - North America International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021 North America (Total)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month 0%
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 94,079 95,228 97,270 3,190 3.4% 2,041 2.1% 97,509 54,042 -40,038 -42.6% -43,228 -44.4% -43,468 -44.6%
February 85,663 89,561 91,194 5,532 6.5% 1,633 1.8% 91,390 49,241 -36,422 -42.5% -41,953 -46.0% -42,149 -46.1%
March 101,055 102,034 85,176 -15,878 -15.7% -16,857 -16.5% 104,135 65,269 -35,786 -35.4% -19,907 -23.4% -38,866 -37.3% -20%
April 97,712 100,957 29,514 -68,197 -69.8% -71,443 -70.8% 104,065 66,300 -31,411 -32.1% 36,786 124.6% -37,765 -36.3%
May 101,872 105,935 24,796 -77,076 -75.7% -81,139 -76.6% 109,689 72,030 -29,842 -29.3% 47,234 190.5% -37,659 -34.3%
June 102,568 107,782 32,251 -70,317 -68.6% -75,530 -70.1% 110,176 78,165 -24,404 -23.8% 45,914 142.4% -32,012 -29.1%
-40%
July 106,989 113,653 51,579 -55,410 -51.8% -62,074 -54.6% 119,519 85,447 -21,542 -20.1% 33,867 65.7% -34,072 -28.5%
August 106,381 110,076 55,542 -50,839 -47.8% -54,533 -49.5% 113,918 85,363 -21,018 -19.8% 29,821 53.7% -28,555 -25.1%
September 97,223 102,679 47,663 -49,560 -51.0% -55,016 -53.6% 107,918 79,093 -18,130 -18.6% 31,430 65.9% -28,825 -26.7%
Actual
October 100,865 103,004 52,599 -48,266 -47.9% -50,405 -48.9% 106,624 83,960 -16,905 -16.8% 31,361 59.6% -22,664 -21.3% -60%
November 94,827 95,984 54,959 -39,868 -42.0% -41,025 -42.7% 98,582 84,497 -10,330 -10.9% 29,538 53.7% -14,085 -14.3% Scenario 1
December 99,177 102,020 56,865 -42,312 -42.7% -45,155 -44.3% 106,462 83,334 -15,843 -16.0% 26,469 46.5% -23,128 -21.7% Scenario 1a
1Q 280,797 286,823 273,641 -7,157 -2.5% -13,183 -4.6% 293,035 168,552 -112,245 -40.0% -105,089 -38.4% -124,483 -42.5% Scenario 2
-80%
2Q 302,152 314,674 86,561 -215,591 -71.4% -228,112 -72.5% 323,931 216,495 -85,657 -28.3% 129,934 150.1% -107,435 -33.2%
Scenario 2a
3Q 310,594 326,407 154,785 -155,809 -50.2% -171,623 -52.6% 341,356 249,903 -60,691 -19.5% 95,118 61.5% -91,453 -26.8%
4Q 294,870 301,008 164,423 -130,446 -44.2% -136,584 -45.4% 311,668 251,792 -43,078 -14.6% 87,368 53.1% -59,876 -19.2% Reference
Total 1,188,412 1,228,912 679,410 -509,002 -42.8% -549,501 -44.7% 1,269,989 886,742 -301,670 -25.4% 207,332 30.5% -383,247 -30.2% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Jan 21

Jan 22
Seat Capacity (thousand) - North America International + Domestic
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 99,823 87,362 87,362 87,362 87,362 87,362 -6,717 -7.1% 33,321 61.7% -12,460 -12.5%
February 93,897 80,220 80,220 80,220 80,220 80,220 -5,443 -6.4% 30,979 62.9% -13,678 -14.6%
March 106,245 93,112 93,112 93,112 93,112 93,112 -7,943 -7.9% 27,843 42.7% -13,133 -12.4%
April 107,494 92,079 92,079 92,079 92,079 92,079 -5,633 -5.8% 25,778 38.9% -15,415 -14.3%
May 113,861 96,851 96,851 96,851 96,851 96,851 -5,021 -4.9% 24,821 34.5% -17,010 -14.9%
June 113,441 98,684 98,684 98,684 98,684 98,684 -3,884 -3.8% 20,519 26.3% -14,757 -13.0%
July 126,161 103,237 103,237 103,237 103,237 103,237 -3,752 -3.5% 17,790 20.8% -22,924 -18.2%
August 118,075 96,677 96,677 96,677 96,677 96,677 -9,704 -9.1% 11,314 13.3% -21,398 -18.1%
September 113,722 96,018 96,018 96,018 96,018 96,018 -1,205 -1.2% 16,925 21.4% -17,704 -15.6%
October 110,247 99,234 99,234 99,234 99,234 99,234 -1,631 -1.6% 15,274 18.2% -11,012 -10.0%
November 101,111 94,660 94,660 94,660 94,660 94,660 -167 -0.2% 10,163 12.0% -6,451 -6.4%
December 110,971 100,488 99,180 99,322 100,075 82,526 3 to 1,311 0.0% to 1.3% 15,846 to 17,154 19.0% to 20.6% -11,791 to -10,483 -10.6% to -9.4%
1Q 299,965 260,694 260,694 260,694 260,694 260,694 -20,103 -7.2% 92,142 54.7% -39,271 -13.1%
2Q 334,795 287,613 287,613 287,613 287,613 287,613 -14,539 -4.8% 71,118 32.8% -47,182 -14.1%
3Q 357,959 295,932 295,932 295,932 295,932 295,932 -14,661 -4.7% 46,029 18.4% -62,027 -17.3%
4Q 322,329 294,382 293,074 293,217 293,969 276,421 -1,795 to -487 -0.6% to -0.2% 41,283 to 42,591 16.4% to 16.9% -29,254 to -27,946 -9.1% to -8.7%
Total 1,315,048 1,138,623 1,137,314 1,137,457 1,138,209 1,120,661 -51,098 to -49,790 -4.3% to -4.2% 250,573 to 251,881 28.3% to 28.4% -177,734 to -176,426 -13.5% to -13.4%

Source: ICAO estimates 103


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - North America International
Year 2019 2020 2021
North America (International)
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0%
January 12,749 12,323 12,391 -358 -2.8% 68 0.6% 12,285 2,662 -10,087 -79.1% -9,730 -78.5% -9,623 -78.3%
February 11,180 11,240 10,439 -741 -6.6% -801 -7.1% 11,208 1,935 -9,245 -82.7% -8,504 -81.5% -9,273 -82.7%
March 13,587 13,196 6,858 -6,729 -49.5% -6,338 -48.0% 13,172 2,523 -11,064 -81.4% -4,335 -63.2% -10,649 -80.8% -20%
April 13,191 13,355 381 -12,809 -97.1% -12,974 -97.1% 13,613 2,669 -10,521 -79.8% 2,288 600.4% -10,944 -80.4%
May 13,368 13,627 351 -13,017 -97.4% -13,276 -97.4% 13,924 3,305 -10,064 -75.3% 2,953 840.7% -10,619 -76.3%
June 14,491 14,765 630 -13,861 -95.7% -14,135 -95.7% 15,003 4,236 -10,255 -70.8% 3,606 572.7% -10,767 -71.8%
July 15,501 15,866 1,203 -14,298 -92.2% -14,663 -92.4% 16,310 5,237 -10,263 -66.2% 4,035 335.4% -11,073 -67.9% -40%
August 15,265 15,567 1,470 -13,796 -90.4% -14,098 -90.6% 15,997 5,577 -9,688 -63.5% 4,107 279.5% -10,420 -65.1%
September 12,630 12,980 1,317 -11,313 -89.6% -11,663 -89.9% 13,326 4,692 -7,938 -62.8% 3,375 256.2% -8,634 -64.8%
October 12,343 12,059 1,637 -10,706 -86.7% -10,423 -86.4% 12,379 5,140 -7,204 -58.4% 3,503 214.0% -7,239 -58.5% -60% Actual
November 11,388 11,070 1,990 -9,399 -82.5% -9,080 -82.0% 11,388 5,982 -5,406 -47.5% 3,992 200.6% -5,406 -47.5%
Scenario 1
December 13,163 12,838 2,750 -10,413 -79.1% -10,088 -78.6% 13,180 7,340 -5,824 -44.2% 4,589 166.9% -5,841 -44.3%
1Q 37,516 36,759 29,688 -7,828 -20.9% -7,071 -19.2% 36,664 7,120 -30,396 -81.0% -22,568 -76.0% -29,545 -80.6% Scenario 1a
2Q 41,050 41,747 1,362 -39,688 -96.7% -40,385 -96.7% 42,540 10,210 -30,840 -75.1% 8,848 649.5% -32,330 -76.0% -80% Scenario 2
3Q 43,396 44,413 3,990 -39,406 -90.8% -40,424 -91.0% 45,634 15,507 -27,889 -64.3% 11,517 288.7% -30,127 -66.0% Scenario 2a
4Q 36,895 35,968 6,377 -30,518 -82.7% -29,591 -82.3% 36,947 18,462 -18,434 -50.0% 12,084 189.5% -18,486 -50.0% Reference
Total 158,857 158,887 41,417 -117,440 -73.9% -117,470 -73.9% 161,785 51,298 -107,559 -67.7% 9,882 23.9% -110,487 -68.3% -100%

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20

Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Jan 20

Jan 22
Jan 21
Passenger Number (thousand) - North America International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 12,224 7,110 7,110 7,110 7,110 7,110 -5,639 -44.2% 4,448 167.1% -5,114 -41.8%
February 11,235 6,627 6,627 6,627 6,627 6,627 -4,553 -40.7% 4,692 242.6% -4,608 -41.0%
March 13,117 9,472 9,472 9,472 9,472 9,472 -4,115 -30.3% 6,949 275.4% -3,645 -27.8%
April 13,893 10,517 10,517 10,517 10,517 10,517 -2,674 -20.3% 7,847 294.0% -3,376 -24.3%
May 14,257 11,238 11,238 11,238 11,238 11,238 -2,130 -15.9% 7,934 240.1% -3,018 -21.2%
June 15,289 12,773 12,773 12,773 12,773 12,773 -1,718 -11.9% 8,537 201.5% -2,516 -16.5%
July 16,791 14,008 14,008 14,008 14,008 14,008 -1,493 -9.6% 8,771 167.5% -2,783 -16.6%
August 16,451 12,385 12,385 12,385 12,385 12,385 -2,880 -18.9% 6,808 122.1% -4,066 -24.7%
September 13,712 11,638 11,638 11,638 11,638 11,638 -991 -7.8% 6,946 148.0% -2,073 -15.1%
October 12,608 11,555 11,555 11,555 11,555 11,555 -788 -6.4% 6,415 124.8% -1,053 -8.3%
November 11,609 10,609 10,609 10,609 10,609 10,609 -779 -6.8% 4,627 77.3% -1,000 -8.6%
December 13,429 12,427 12,269 12,441 12,403 13,117 -894 to -722 -6.8% to -5.5% 4,930 to 5,101 67.2% to 69.5% -1,160 to -988 -8.6% to -7.4%
1Q 36,577 23,209 23,209 23,209 23,209 23,209 -14,306 -38.1% 16,090 226.0% -13,367 -36.5%
2Q 43,439 34,528 34,528 34,528 34,528 34,528 -6,522 -15.9% 24,318 238.2% -8,910 -20.5%
3Q 46,953 38,031 38,031 38,031 38,031 38,031 -5,364 -12.4% 22,525 145.3% -8,922 -19.0%
4Q 37,646 34,591 34,433 34,605 34,567 35,281 -2,462 to -2,290 -6.7% to -6.2% 15,972 to 16,143 86.5% to 87.4% -3,213 to -3,041 -8.5% to -8.1%
Total 164,615 130,360 130,203 130,374 130,337 131,051 -28,654 to -28,483 -18.0% to -17.9% 78,904 to 79,076 153.8% to 154.1% -34,412 to -34,241 -20.9% to -20.8%

Source: ICAO estimates 104


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - North America Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline North America (Domestic)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 61,180 62,777 66,300 5,120 8.4% 3,523 5.6% 64,854 23,612 -37,568 -61.4% -42,688 -64.4% -41,242 -63.6%
0%
February 57,925 61,297 64,236 6,311 10.9% 2,939 4.8% 63,057 24,815 -33,109 -57.2% -39,421 -61.4% -38,241 -60.6%
March 72,955 74,539 38,685 -34,270 -47.0% -35,855 -48.1% 76,678 40,720 -32,234 -44.2% 2,036 5.3% -35,958 -46.9%
April 69,679 72,593 4,478 -65,200 -93.6% -68,114 -93.8% 75,270 44,527 -25,151 -36.1% 40,049 894.2% -30,743 -40.8%
May 74,724 78,330 10,416 -64,308 -86.1% -67,914 -86.7% 81,609 52,304 -22,420 -30.0% 41,888 402.2% -29,305 -35.9% -20%
June 76,778 81,518 17,374 -59,404 -77.4% -64,145 -78.7% 83,737 61,673 -15,105 -19.7% 44,300 255.0% -22,064 -26.3%
July 79,169 85,089 24,402 -54,767 -69.2% -60,687 -71.3% 90,208 69,408 -9,761 -12.3% 45,006 184.4% -20,800 -23.1%
August 76,234 79,448 26,203 -50,031 -65.6% -53,245 -67.0% 82,644 62,992 -13,242 -17.4% 36,789 140.4% -19,652 -23.8% -40%
September 66,637 71,036 25,559 -41,078 -61.6% -45,476 -64.0% 75,259 54,875 -11,762 -17.7% 29,316 114.7% -20,384 -27.1%
October 71,610 74,005 29,965 -41,645 -58.2% -44,040 -59.5% 77,002 62,883 -8,727 -12.2% 32,917 109.9% -14,119 -18.3%
November 65,244 66,787 27,909 -37,335 -57.2% -38,878 -58.2% 68,832 62,395 -2,849 -4.4% 34,486 123.6% -6,437 -9.4% Actual
-60%
December 71,085 74,167 27,649 -43,436 -61.1% -46,518 -62.7% 77,911 61,216 -9,869 -13.9% 33,567 121.4% -16,695 -21.4% Scenario 1
1Q 192,060 198,614 169,221 -22,839 -11.9% -29,393 -14.8% 204,589 89,147 -102,912 -53.6% -80,073 -47.3% -115,441 -56.4% Scenario 1a
2Q 221,181 232,441 32,268 -188,913 -85.4% -200,173 -86.1% 240,617 158,505 -62,676 -28.3% 126,236 391.2% -82,112 -34.1% Scenario 2
3Q 222,040 235,573 76,164 -145,876 -65.7% -159,408 -67.7% 248,112 187,275 -34,765 -15.7% 111,111 145.9% -60,836 -24.5% -80%
Scenario 2a
4Q 207,939 214,959 85,524 -122,416 -58.9% -129,436 -60.2% 223,745 186,493 -21,446 -10.3% 100,970 118.1% -37,251 -16.6%
Total 843,220 881,587 363,177 -480,043 -56.9% -518,410 -58.8% 917,062 621,421 -221,799 -26.3% 258,244 71.1% -295,641 -32.2% Reference
-100%
Passenger Number (thousand) - North America Domestic

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 21

May 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22

Jul 22
Jan 20

Jan 22
Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 66,983 53,130 53,130 53,130 53,130 53,130 -8,050 -13.2% 29,518 125.0% -13,853 -20.7%
February 65,313 54,994 54,994 54,994 54,994 54,994 -2,931 -5.1% 30,178 121.6% -10,319 -15.8%
March 78,857 69,909 69,909 69,909 69,909 69,909 -3,046 -4.2% 29,189 71.7% -8,948 -11.3%
April 78,207 69,430 69,430 69,430 69,430 69,430 -248 -0.4% 24,903 55.9% -8,777 -11.2%
May 85,225 73,314 73,314 73,314 73,314 73,314 -1,410 -1.9% 21,010 40.2% -11,910 -14.0%
June 86,693 75,150 75,150 75,150 75,150 75,150 -1,628 -2.1% 13,477 21.9% -11,542 -13.3%
July 96,006 75,960 75,960 75,960 75,960 75,960 -3,208 -4.1% 6,552 9.4% -20,046 -20.9%
August 86,096 69,416 69,416 69,416 69,416 69,416 -6,819 -8.9% 6,423 10.2% -16,680 -19.4%
September 79,920 70,071 70,071 70,071 70,071 70,071 3,434 5.2% 15,196 27.7% -9,850 -12.3%
October 80,099 74,842 74,842 74,842 74,842 74,842 3,232 4.5% 11,959 19.0% -5,257 -6.6%
November 70,921 68,434 68,434 68,434 68,434 68,434 3,190 4.9% 6,039 9.7% -2,487 -3.5%
December 81,822 76,014 75,240 74,965 75,672 60,993 3,880 to 4,929 5.5% to 6.9% 13,749 to 14,798 22.5% to 24.2% -6,857 to -5,808 -8.4% to -7.1%
1Q 211,152 178,033 178,033 178,033 178,033 178,033 -14,027 -7.3% 88,885 99.7% -33,120 -15.7%
2Q 250,124 217,895 217,895 217,895 217,895 217,895 -3,286 -1.5% 59,390 37.5% -32,229 -12.9%
3Q 262,022 215,447 215,447 215,447 215,447 215,447 -6,593 -3.0% 28,172 15.0% -46,576 -17.8%
4Q 232,842 219,290 218,516 218,241 218,948 204,269 10,302 to 11,351 5.0% to 5.5% 31,748 to 32,797 17.0% to 17.6% -14,601 to -13,552 -6.3% to -5.8%
Total 956,141 830,664 829,890 829,615 830,323 815,643 -13,605 to -12,556 -1.6% to -1.5% 208,195 to 209,244 33.5% to 33.7% -126,526 to -125,477 -13.2% to -13.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 105


Passenger number
Passenger Number (thousand) - North America International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline
Month
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 73,929 75,100 78,691 4,762 6.4% 3,591 4.8% 77,139 26,274 -47,656 -64.5% -52,418 -66.6% -50,865 -65.9% North America (Total)
February 69,105 72,537 74,675 5,570 8.1% 2,137 2.9% 74,264 26,750 -42,355 -61.3% -47,925 -64.2% -47,514 -64.0% 0%
March 86,541 87,735 45,542 -40,999 -47.4% -42,193 -48.1% 89,850 43,243 -43,298 -50.0% -2,299 -5.0% -46,606 -51.9%
April 82,869 85,948 4,860 -78,010 -94.1% -81,088 -94.3% 88,884 47,197 -35,672 -43.0% 42,337 871.2% -41,687 -46.9%
May 88,093 91,957 10,767 -77,325 -87.8% -81,190 -88.3% 95,533 55,609 -32,484 -36.9% 44,841 416.5% -39,925 -41.8%
June 91,269 96,283 18,004 -73,265 -80.3% -78,280 -81.3% 98,740 65,909 -25,360 -27.8% 47,906 266.1% -32,830 -33.2% -20%
July 94,670 100,954 25,605 -69,065 -73.0% -75,350 -74.6% 106,518 74,645 -20,024 -21.2% 49,041 191.5% -31,873 -29.9%
August 91,500 95,016 27,673 -63,827 -69.8% -67,342 -70.9% 98,642 68,569 -22,930 -25.1% 40,896 147.8% -30,072 -30.5%
September 79,267 84,016 26,876 -52,390 -66.1% -57,140 -68.0% 88,585 59,567 -19,700 -24.9% 32,691 121.6% -29,018 -32.8% -40%
October 83,953 86,065 31,602 -52,351 -62.4% -54,463 -63.3% 89,381 68,022 -15,931 -19.0% 36,420 115.2% -21,358 -23.9%
November 76,633 77,856 29,899 -46,734 -61.0% -47,958 -61.6% 80,220 68,377 -8,255 -10.8% 38,478 128.7% -11,843 -14.8%
December 84,248 87,006 30,400 -53,849 -63.9% -56,606 -65.1% 91,091 68,556 -15,693 -18.6% 38,156 125.5% -22,536 -24.7%
-60% Actual
1Q 229,576 235,373 198,908 -30,667 -13.4% -36,464 -15.5% 241,253 96,267 -133,308 -58.1% -102,641 -51.6% -144,986 -60.1%
2Q 262,231 274,188 33,630 -228,600 -87.2% -240,558 -87.7% 283,157 168,715 -93,516 -35.7% 135,084 401.7% -114,442 -40.4%
Scenario 1
3Q 265,436 279,986 80,154 -185,282 -69.8% -199,832 -71.4% 293,745 202,782 -62,654 -23.6% 122,628 153.0% -90,963 -31.0% Scenario 1a
4Q 244,834 250,927 91,901 -152,934 -62.5% -159,026 -63.4% 260,692 204,955 -39,879 -16.3% 113,054 123.0% -55,737 -21.4% -80% Scenario 2
Total 1,002,077 1,040,474 404,594 -597,483 -59.6% -635,880 -61.1% 1,078,847 672,719 -329,358 -32.9% 268,125 66.3% -406,128 -37.6% Scenario 2a
Passenger Number (thousand) - North America International + Domestic Reference
-100%
Year 2022

Sep 20

May 21

Sep 21

May 22

Sep 22
May 20
Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22
Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 79,207 60,240 60,240 60,240 60,240 60,240 -13,689 -18.5% 33,967 129.3% -18,967 -23.9%
February 76,548 61,621 61,621 61,621 61,621 61,621 -7,484 -10.8% 34,871 130.4% -14,927 -19.5%
March 91,974 79,381 79,381 79,381 79,381 79,381 -7,160 -8.3% 36,138 83.6% -12,593 -13.7%
April 92,100 79,947 79,947 79,947 79,947 79,947 -2,922 -3.5% 32,750 69.4% -12,153 -13.2%
May 99,481 84,553 84,553 84,553 84,553 84,553 -3,540 -4.0% 28,944 52.0% -14,928 -15.0%
June 101,982 87,924 87,924 87,924 87,924 87,924 -3,345 -3.7% 22,014 33.4% -14,058 -13.8%
July 112,797 89,968 89,968 89,968 89,968 89,968 -4,701 -5.0% 15,323 20.5% -22,829 -20.2%
August 102,547 81,801 81,801 81,801 81,801 81,801 -9,699 -10.6% 13,231 19.3% -20,746 -20.2%
September 93,632 81,709 81,709 81,709 81,709 81,709 2,442 3.1% 22,142 37.2% -11,923 -12.7%
October 92,707 86,397 86,397 86,397 86,397 86,397 2,443 2.9% 18,375 27.0% -6,310 -6.8%
November 82,530 79,043 79,043 79,043 79,043 79,043 2,411 3.1% 10,666 15.6% -3,487 -4.2%
December 95,251 88,441 87,509 87,406 88,076 74,110 3,158 to 4,193 3.7% to 5.0% 18,850 to 19,886 27.5% to 29.0% -7,845 to -6,810 -8.2% to -7.1%
1Q 247,729 201,242 201,242 201,242 201,242 201,242 -28,333 -12.3% 104,975 109.0% -46,487 -18.8%
2Q 293,563 252,423 252,423 252,423 252,423 252,423 -9,808 -3.7% 83,708 49.6% -41,140 -14.0%
3Q 308,976 253,478 253,478 253,478 253,478 253,478 -11,958 -4.5% 50,696 25.0% -55,498 -18.0%
4Q 270,488 253,881 252,949 252,846 253,516 239,550 8,012 to 9,047 3.3% to 3.7% 47,891 to 48,926 23.4% to 23.9% -17,642 to -16,607 -6.5% to -6.1%
Total 1,120,756 961,025 960,093 959,989 960,659 946,694 -42,087 to -41,052 -4.2% to -4.1% 287,270 to 288,306 42.7% to 42.9% -160,766 to -159,731 -14.3% to -14.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 106


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - North America International
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline North America (International)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1
January 3,350 3,273 3,295 -55 -1.6% 22 0.7% 3,278 657 -2,692 -80.4% -2,638 -80.1% -2,620 -79.9% 0.0
February 2,909 2,956 2,674 -235 -8.1% -282 -9.5% 2,957 486 -2,422 -83.3% -2,188 -81.8% -2,471 -83.6%
March 3,483 3,422 1,723 -1,760 -50.5% -1,699 -49.7% 3,442 625 -2,858 -82.1% -1,098 -63.7% -2,817 -81.8% -0.5
April 3,487 3,554 105 -3,382 -97.0% -3,449 -97.0% 3,638 660 -2,827 -81.1% 555 527.7% -2,978 -81.9%
May 3,617 3,718 106 -3,511 -97.1% -3,611 -97.1% 3,813 791 -2,826 -78.1% 684 644.7% -3,022 -79.3% -1.0
June 3,923 4,018 179 -3,744 -95.4% -3,839 -95.5% 4,099 1,010 -2,913 -74.3% 831 464.1% -3,090 -75.4%
July 4,195 4,319 314 -3,881 -92.5% -4,006 -92.7% 4,456 1,265 -2,929 -69.8% 951 303.1% -3,191 -71.6%

Billions (USD)
-1.5
August 4,167 4,281 398 -3,769 -90.5% -3,884 -90.7% 4,420 1,392 -2,774 -66.6% 995 250.1% -3,027 -68.5%
September 3,534 3,654 371 -3,163 -89.5% -3,283 -89.8% 3,772 1,190 -2,343 -66.3% 819 220.8% -2,581 -68.4% -2.0
October 3,410 3,339 444 -2,966 -87.0% -2,895 -86.7% 3,441 1,284 -2,126 -62.3% 840 189.5% -2,157 -62.7%
November 3,045 2,961 504 -2,541 -83.5% -2,458 -83.0% 3,053 1,450 -1,595 -52.4% 946 187.9% -1,603 -52.5% Actual
-2.5
December 3,487 3,428 671 -2,816 -80.8% -2,757 -80.4% 3,545 1,764 -1,724 -49.4% 1,092 162.7% -1,781 -50.3% Scenario 1
1Q 9,741 9,650 7,691 -2,049 -21.0% -1,959 -20.3% 9,677 1,768 -7,973 -81.8% -5,923 -77.0% -7,909 -81.7% Scenario 1a
-3.0
2Q 11,027 11,289 390 -10,637 -96.5% -10,899 -96.5% 11,551 2,460 -8,567 -77.7% 2,070 530.4% -9,090 -78.7% Scenario 2
3Q 11,895 12,255 1,083 -10,813 -90.9% -11,172 -91.2% 12,647 3,848 -8,047 -67.7% 2,765 255.4% -8,799 -69.6%
-3.5 Scenario 2a
4Q 9,942 9,728 1,618 -8,324 -83.7% -8,109 -83.4% 10,039 4,497 -5,445 -54.8% 2,879 177.9% -5,541 -55.2%
Reference
Total 42,605 42,922 10,783 -31,823 -74.7% -32,139 -74.9% 43,913 12,574 -30,031 -70.5% 1,791 16.6% -31,339 -71.4%
-4.0

Sep 20

Sep 22
May 20

Sep 21
May 21

May 22
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - North America International
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 3,282 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 -1,537 -45.9% 1,156 175.8% -1,469 -44.8%
February 2,979 1,680 1,680 1,680 1,680 1,680 -1,228 -42.2% 1,194 245.7% -1,299 -43.6%
March 3,458 2,357 2,357 2,357 2,357 2,357 -1,126 -32.3% 1,732 277.2% -1,101 -31.8%
April 3,735 2,681 2,681 2,681 2,681 2,681 -806 -23.1% 2,022 306.4% -1,053 -28.2%
May 3,926 2,951 2,951 2,951 2,951 2,951 -666 -18.4% 2,160 273.3% -975 -24.8%
June 4,200 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 3,346 -578 -14.7% 2,336 231.3% -854 -20.3%
July 4,609 3,674 3,674 3,674 3,674 3,674 -521 -12.4% 2,408 190.3% -936 -20.3%
August 4,572 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,386 -780 -18.7% 1,994 143.2% -1,186 -25.9%
September 3,904 3,189 3,189 3,189 3,189 3,189 -345 -9.8% 1,998 167.9% -715 -18.3%
October 3,518 3,136 3,136 3,136 3,136 3,136 -274 -8.0% 1,852 144.2% -382 -10.9%
November 3,118 2,751 2,751 2,751 2,751 2,751 -294 -9.7% 1,301 89.7% -367 -11.8%
December 3,641 3,223 3,181 3,227 3,217 3,407 -307 to -260 -8.8% to -7.5% 1,417 to 1,463 80.3% to 83.0% -461 to -414 -12.7% to -11.4%
1Q 9,719 5,850 5,850 5,850 5,850 5,850 -3,890 -39.9% 4,082 230.9% -3,869 -39.8%
2Q 11,861 8,978 8,978 8,978 8,978 8,978 -2,049 -18.6% 6,518 264.9% -2,883 -24.3%
3Q 13,085 10,249 10,249 10,249 10,249 10,249 -1,646 -13.8% 6,401 166.3% -2,836 -21.7%
4Q 10,278 9,110 9,068 9,114 9,104 9,294 -875 to -828 -8.8% to -8.3% 4,570 to 4,617 101.6% to 102.7% -1,210 to -1,163 -11.8% to -11.3%

Source: ICAO estimates 107


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - North America Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline North America (Domestic)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 1.0
January 7,210 7,398 7,813 603 8.4% 415 5.6% 7,643 2,782 -4,427 -61.4% -5,030 -64.4% -4,860 -63.6%
February 6,826 7,223 7,570 744 10.9% 346 4.8% 7,431 2,924 -3,902 -57.2% -4,645 -61.4% -4,506 -60.6% 0.0
March 8,597 8,784 4,559 -4,038 -47.0% -4,225 -48.1% 9,036 4,799 -3,799 -44.2% 240 5.3% -4,237 -46.9%
April 8,211 8,554 528 -7,683 -93.6% -8,027 -93.8% 8,870 5,247 -2,964 -36.1% 4,719 894.2% -3,623 -40.8% -1.0
May 8,806 9,231 1,227 -7,578 -86.1% -8,003 -86.7% 9,617 6,164 -2,642 -30.0% 4,936 402.2% -3,453 -35.9%
June 9,048 9,606 2,047 -7,000 -77.4% -7,559 -78.7% 9,868 7,268 -1,780 -19.7% 5,220 255.0% -2,600 -26.3% -2.0

Billions (USD)
July 9,329 10,027 2,876 -6,454 -69.2% -7,151 -71.3% 10,630 8,179 -1,150 -12.3% 5,304 184.4% -2,451 -23.1%
August 8,984 9,362 3,088 -5,896 -65.6% -6,274 -67.0% 9,739 7,423 -1,560 -17.4% 4,335 140.4% -2,316 -23.8% -3.0
September 7,853 8,371 3,012 -4,841 -61.6% -5,359 -64.0% 8,869 6,467 -1,386 -17.7% 3,455 114.7% -2,402 -27.1%
October 8,439 8,721 3,531 -4,907 -58.2% -5,190 -59.5% 9,074 7,410 -1,028 -12.2% 3,879 109.9% -1,664 -18.3% -4.0
November 7,688 7,870 3,289 -4,400 -57.2% -4,581 -58.2% 8,111 7,353 -336 -4.4% 4,064 123.6% -759 -9.4% Actual
December 8,377 8,740 3,258 -5,119 -61.1% -5,482 -62.7% 9,181 7,214 -1,163 -13.9% 3,956 121.4% -1,967 -21.4% -5.0 Scenario 1
1Q 22,633 23,405 19,941 -2,691 -11.9% -3,464 -14.8% 24,109 10,505 -12,127 -53.6% -9,436 -47.3% -13,604 -56.4% Scenario 1a
2Q 26,064 27,391 3,803 -22,262 -85.4% -23,589 -86.1% 28,355 18,678 -7,386 -28.3% 14,876 391.2% -9,676 -34.1% -6.0
Scenario 2
3Q 26,166 27,760 8,975 -17,190 -65.7% -18,785 -67.7% 29,238 22,069 -4,097 -15.7% 13,093 145.9% -7,169 -24.5%
-7.0 Scenario 2a
4Q 24,504 25,331 10,078 -14,426 -58.9% -15,253 -60.2% 26,366 21,977 -2,527 -10.3% 11,898 118.1% -4,390 -16.6%
Total 99,366 103,888 42,797 -56,569 -56.9% -61,090 -58.8% 108,068 73,229 -26,137 -26.3% 30,432 71.1% -34,839 -32.2% Reference
-8.0
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - North America Domestic

May 20

May 21

May 22
Sep 20

Sep 22
Sep 21
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Mar 20
Jan 20

Jan 21
Nov 20

Nov 21
Jan 22

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 7,893 6,261 6,261 6,261 6,261 6,261 -949 -13.2% 3,478 125.0% -1,632 -20.7%
February 7,697 6,481 6,481 6,481 6,481 6,481 -345 -5.1% 3,556 121.6% -1,216 -15.8%
March 9,293 8,238 8,238 8,238 8,238 8,238 -359 -4.2% 3,440 71.7% -1,054 -11.3%
April 9,216 8,182 8,182 8,182 8,182 8,182 -29 -0.4% 2,935 55.9% -1,034 -11.2%
May 10,043 8,639 8,639 8,639 8,639 8,639 -166 -1.9% 2,476 40.2% -1,404 -14.0%
June 10,216 8,856 8,856 8,856 8,856 8,856 -192 -2.1% 1,588 21.9% -1,360 -13.3%
July 11,314 8,951 8,951 8,951 8,951 8,951 -378 -4.1% 772 9.4% -2,362 -20.9%
August 10,146 8,180 8,180 8,180 8,180 8,180 -804 -8.9% 757 10.2% -1,966 -19.4%
September 9,418 8,257 8,257 8,257 8,257 8,257 405 5.2% 1,791 27.7% -1,161 -12.3%
October 9,439 8,819 8,819 8,819 8,819 8,819 381 4.5% 1,409 19.0% -619 -6.6%
November 8,357 8,064 8,064 8,064 8,064 8,064 376 4.9% 712 9.7% -293 -3.5%
December 9,642 8,958 8,866 8,834 8,917 7,188 457 to 581 5.5% to 6.9% 1,620 to 1,744 22.5% to 24.2% -808 to -684 -8.4% to -7.1%
1Q 24,883 20,980 20,980 20,980 20,980 20,980 -1,653 -7.3% 10,474 99.7% -3,903 -15.7%
2Q 29,475 25,677 25,677 25,677 25,677 25,677 -387 -1.5% 6,999 37.5% -3,798 -12.9%
3Q 30,877 25,389 25,389 25,389 25,389 25,389 -777 -3.0% 3,320 15.0% -5,489 -17.8%
4Q 27,438 25,841 25,750 25,718 25,801 24,071 1,214 to 1,338 5.0% to 5.5% 3,741 to 3,865 17.0% to 17.6% -1,721 to -1,597 -6.3% to -5.8%
Total 112,673 97,887 97,795 97,763 97,846 96,117 -1,603 to -1,480 -1.6% to -1.5% 24,534 to 24,658 33.5% to 33.7% -14,910 to -14,786 -13.2% to -13.1%

Source: ICAO estimates 108


Passenger revenue
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - North America International + Domestic
Year 2019 2020 2021

Month
Actual Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to Baseline Baseline Estimated Compared to 2019 Compared to 2020 Compared to Baseline North America (Total)
a b c c-a c/a-1 c-b c/b-1 d e e-a e/a-1 e-c e/a-1 e-d e/d-1 0.0
January 10,559 10,670 11,108 549 5.2% 437 4.1% 10,920 3,440 -7,119 -67.4% -7,668 -69.0% -7,480 -68.5%
February 9,734 10,179 10,244 509 5.2% 64 0.6% 10,388 3,410 -6,324 -65.0% -6,833 -66.7% -6,977 -67.2%
March 12,080 12,205 6,281 -5,798 -48.0% -5,924 -48.5% 12,478 5,423 -6,656 -55.1% -858 -13.7% -7,055 -56.5% -2.0
April 11,698 12,109 633 -11,065 -94.6% -11,476 -94.8% 12,508 5,907 -5,791 -49.5% 5,274 833.4% -6,601 -52.8%
May 12,423 12,948 1,334 -11,089 -89.3% -11,614 -89.7% 13,430 6,954 -5,468 -44.0% 5,621 421.5% -6,476 -48.2%
June 12,971 13,624 2,226 -10,744 -82.8% -11,398 -83.7% 13,967 8,277 -4,693 -36.2% 6,051 271.8% -5,690 -40.7% -4.0

Billions (USD)
July 13,524 14,346 3,189 -10,335 -76.4% -11,157 -77.8% 15,086 9,444 -4,080 -30.2% 6,255 196.1% -5,642 -37.4%
August 13,150 13,644 3,486 -9,665 -73.5% -10,158 -74.5% 14,159 8,816 -4,335 -33.0% 5,330 152.9% -5,343 -37.7%
September 11,386 12,025 3,383 -8,003 -70.3% -8,642 -71.9% 12,640 7,657 -3,729 -32.8% 4,274 126.3% -4,983 -39.4% -6.0
October 11,848 12,060 3,975 -7,874 -66.5% -8,085 -67.0% 12,515 8,694 -3,154 -26.6% 4,719 118.7% -3,821 -30.5%
November 10,734 10,831 3,792 -6,941 -64.7% -7,039 -65.0% 11,164 8,803 -1,931 -18.0% 5,010 132.1% -2,361 -21.2% Actual
December 11,864 12,168 3,930 -7,935 -66.9% -8,238 -67.7% 12,726 8,977 -2,887 -24.3% 5,048 128.5% -3,749 -29.5% -8.0 Scenario 1
1Q 32,373 33,055 27,633 -4,741 -14.6% -5,422 -16.4% 33,786 12,273 -20,100 -62.1% -15,359 -55.6% -21,512 -63.7% Scenario 1a
2Q 37,091 38,681 4,193 -32,899 -88.7% -34,488 -89.2% 39,905 21,139 -15,953 -43.0% 16,946 404.2% -18,767 -47.0% Scenario 2
3Q 38,061 40,015 10,058 -28,003 -73.6% -29,957 -74.9% 41,885 25,917 -12,144 -31.9% 15,859 157.7% -15,968 -38.1% -10.0
Scenario 2a
4Q 34,446 35,059 11,697 -22,749 -66.0% -23,362 -66.6% 36,405 26,474 -7,972 -23.1% 14,777 126.3% -9,931 -27.3%
Total 141,972 146,809 53,580 -88,392 -62.3% -93,229 -63.5% 151,981 85,803 -56,169 -39.6% 32,223 60.1% -66,178 -43.5% Reference
-12.0
Passenger revenue (USD, million) - North America International + Domestic

Sep 20

Sep 21

Sep 22
May 20

May 21

May 22
Jul 21

Jul 22
Jul 20
Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 22
Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22
Nov 20

Nov 21

Nov 22
Year 2022
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 1a Scenario 2 Scenario 2a Reference Compared to 2019 Compared to 2021 Compared to Baseline
Month
f g - g-a g/a-1 g-e g/e-1 g-f f/g-1
January 11,175 8,074 8,074 8,074 8,074 8,074 -2,485 -23.5% 4,634 134.7% -3,101 -27.8%
February 10,676 8,161 8,161 8,161 8,161 8,161 -1,574 -16.2% 4,751 139.3% -2,515 -23.6%
March 12,751 10,595 10,595 10,595 10,595 10,595 -1,485 -12.3% 5,172 95.4% -2,156 -16.9%
April 12,951 10,863 10,863 10,863 10,863 10,863 -835 -7.1% 4,956 83.9% -2,088 -16.1%
May 13,969 11,591 11,591 11,591 11,591 11,591 -832 -6.7% 4,636 66.7% -2,378 -17.0%
June 14,416 12,201 12,201 12,201 12,201 12,201 -769 -5.9% 3,924 47.4% -2,215 -15.4%
July 15,923 12,625 12,625 12,625 12,625 12,625 -899 -6.6% 3,181 33.7% -3,298 -20.7%
August 14,718 11,567 11,567 11,567 11,567 11,567 -1,584 -12.0% 2,751 31.2% -3,151 -21.4%
September 13,321 11,446 11,446 11,446 11,446 11,446 60 0.5% 3,789 49.5% -1,876 -14.1%
October 12,957 11,955 11,955 11,955 11,955 11,955 107 0.9% 3,261 37.5% -1,002 -7.7%
November 11,476 10,816 10,816 10,816 10,816 10,816 82 0.8% 2,013 22.9% -660 -5.8%
December 13,283 12,181 12,047 12,061 12,134 10,594 183 to 317 1.5% to 2.7% 3,070 to 3,204 34.2% to 35.7% -1,236 to -1,102 -9.3% to -8.3%
1Q 34,602 26,830 26,830 26,830 26,830 26,830 -5,543 -17.1% 14,557 118.6% -7,772 -22.5%
2Q 41,336 34,655 34,655 34,655 34,655 34,655 -2,436 -6.6% 13,517 63.9% -6,681 -16.2%
3Q 43,962 35,637 35,637 35,637 35,637 35,637 -2,423 -6.4% 9,721 37.5% -8,325 -18.9%
4Q 37,716 34,952 34,818 34,832 34,905 33,365 372 to 506 1.1% to 1.5% 8,344 to 8,478 31.5% to 32.0% -2,898 to -2,764 -7.7% to -7.3%
Total 157,616 132,074 131,940 131,954 132,028 130,488 -10,031 to -9,897 -7.1% to -7.0% 46,137 to 46,271 53.8% to 53.9% -25,676 to -25,542 -16.3% to -16.2%

Source: ICAO estimates 109


https://www.icao.int/susta
inability/Pages/Economic-
Impacts-of-COVID-19.aspx

You might also like