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    Iata PDF

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    Raul Hernan Villacorta Garcia

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    Iata PDF

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    IATA.pdf

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    73 views9 pages

    Iata PDF

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    Raul Hernan Villacorta Garcia

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    You are on page 1of 9

    COVID-19

    Updated Impact
    Assessment

    Brian Pearce
    Chief Economist
    14th April 2020
    1
    Economics
    Three weeks ago we estimated this COVID-19 impact
    Based on a 65% fall in worldwide flights in March, economic recession
    forecasts at the time, and a relaxation of travel restrictions through H2

    RPKs Passenger revenue


    Region of airline registration
    2020 % yoy $ billion 2020 vs. 2019 levels
    Asia-Pacific -37% -88
    North America -27% -50

    Europe -46% -76


    Middle East -39% -19
    Africa -32% -4
    Latin America -41% -15
    Industry -38% -252

    Source: IATA Economics https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/third-impact-assessment/ Economics


    Worldwide flights now down almost 80% by early April
    Industry virtually grounded outside US and Asia domestic markets
    Daily flights, indexed 1st January = 100
    140
    Number of flights, index to equal 100 1st Jan

    120

    100

    80

    60

    40 North America
    Asia Pacific
    20 Global
    Europe
    0 Latin America
    Middle East
    Africa

    Source: IATA Economics analysis based on data provided under license by FlightRadar 24. All rights reserved. Economics
    Recession now expected to be much deeper in 2020
    Economists’ revised forecasts expect output loss twice as large as GFC
    10
    Global GDP growth
    8

    6
    % change year-on-year

    0
    COVID-19
    -2 March Forecast
    Global
    -4 Financial COVID-19
    Crisis April Forecast
    -6
    2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

    Source: IATA Economics using data and forecasts from Oxford Economics Economics
    Post lock-down return to air travel likely to be in stages
    We assume domestic markets open in Q3 but international slower to open
    Share of global air travel in 2019
    RPKs Passengers

    Domestic, 33% International, 42%

    Domestic, 58%

    International, 67%

    Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics Economics


    Recession alone would push global RPKs down 8% in Q3
    This excludes the travel restrictions and confidence effects of COVID-19
    Global GDP and RPK growth
    10%

    8%
    Global RPK growth
    6%
    Global GDP growth
    % change year-on-year

    4%

    2%

    0%

    -2%

    -4%

    -6%
    Impact on RPK growth profile of
    -8% economic recession only

    -10% Q3
    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Source: IATA Economics using data and forecasts from Oxford Economics and IATA Economics
    2020 H2 ‘restart’ slow leaving RPKs down 33% yoy by Q4
    Domestic markets assumed to open in Q3, international much slower
    Global RPK quarterly profile, % change year-on-year
    20%
    10%
    0%
    Impact of the recession
    -10%
    % change year-on-year

    -20%
    Q4 50% recovery
    -30% Global RPK growth international markets,
    -40% reduced by recession

    -50%
    -60%
    -70% Q3 recovery domestic
    markets, reduced by
    -80% recession impact
    -90%
    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    Source: IATA Economics using data and forecasts from Oxford Economics and IATA Economics
    That implies a halving of global RPKs in 2020
    With lower yields that means a $314 billion or 55% fall in passenger
    revenues
    RPKs
    Passenger revenue
    Region of airline registration 2020 (vs 2019 year-
    $ billion 2020 vs. 2019 levels
    on-year change)

    Asia-Pacific -50% -113


    North America -36% -64

    Europe -55% -89


    Middle East -51% -24
    Africa -51% -6
    Latin America -49% -18
    Industry -48% -314

    Note: This assumes, as in the previous impact assessment, that the domestic lock-down lasts 3 months, until the end of Q2. But
    international travel restrictions are assumed in this assessment to be reduced more slowly, with only 50% of pent-up
    international RPKs recovered by Q4 (after reduction due to recession impact).
    Source: IATA Economics Economics
    Contacts
    economics@iata.org
    www.iata.org/economics

    Economics

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