The Security Trends

Security Outlook 2019
Mr. Khaled Nasir
Synopsis
The year 2019 will be a remarkable year for the country. The country is led by a newly elected
government, has many challenges ahead. The primary objective of this commentary is to
address the possible security trends in the year 2019. This commentary seeks to answer some
of the security issues that would be prominent in this year.
Commentary
There are a number of security issues that need to be addressed in year 2019. Terrorism and
militancy was curbed by the law enforcement agencies within last few years. However, the
yearlong efforts of the law enforcement agencies suggest that different groups such as JMB and
ABT are still actively seeking possible recruits. The rise of the lone wolf terror also took place in
the country. There are other security concerns rising in the security landscape. In this
commentary, we would be elaborating on some of the specific security risks in the days to
come.
Militancy and Terrorism

Most devastating terror attack came with the Holey Artisan attack in 2016. Although the anti-
terror drives from the law enforcing agencies reduced the operational capacities of most of the
terror outfits in many fronts. In the previous year, the country had also witnessed the rise of
female radicalisation. Terror outfits seeking more females to join in their ranks. Examples can
be drawn from the arrest of a Bangladeshi female student in Australia last year. This female
student went to Australia on a scholarship ended up stabbing the host. The arrest also unveiled
the involvement of the family members in formation of the terror network. Terror outfits such
as JMB had opened their India chapter in the year 2018, indicating their will to grow their
sphere of influence not only in Bangladesh but also in neighboring countries. Although law
enforcement agencies have taken measures to curb influence of terror outfits as well as
operational capacity, the threat from lone wolf actors remains a security risk. The ability of
spreading propaganda through online platforms indicates that terror organizations are heavily
investing in technology and people with IT skills. One of the cases of self radicalisation led to
heinous attack on prominent intellectuals in recent time. An individual got self radicalized, was
influenced by the online propaganda materials and stabbed the prominent academic and
author Dr. Zafar Iqbal. The trend such as the rise of lone wolf phenomena and radicalisation of
women would most likely remain a security concern in the year 2019.
Cross-Border Security
Bangladesh has experienced a refugee crisis in the 2017 when thousands of Rohingya refugees
crossed over the border from Myanmar to Bangladesh. The refugee crisis created many security
problems such as human trafficking, drug and arms smuggling, environmental degradation and
at times clashes with the local population. The government of Bangladesh had accepted and
accommodated these refugees with open arms. However, as the international Aid and
assistance is fast depleting, there will be challenges ahead in the years 2019 when comes to
refugee management. There are similar refugee related security risks in the horizon. Many
experts believe that the ongoing process of the National Register of Citizens in India’s Assam
state could trigger a mass exodus. As almost 28% of the Assam’s population is Bangla speaking,
any scraping of citizenship could result a mass exodus that would put enormous stress on
Bangladesh. At the policy level, dealing with possible cross-border mass exodus in 2019 remains
a challenge.
The Ongoing Rohingya Problem

Bangladesh had experienced a huge Rohingya exodus coming from Myanmar. Bangladesh is a
country with very limited resources with a huge population. The country received international
assistance and support at the early stages. The huge Rohingya population has already created
contention among the local population. Rohingya refugees have occupied the homesteads and
arable lands of the locals. There are places where the local food price increased while the basic
wage for the locals remains the same. There might be a longstanding environmental
degradation might be underway as forests is being gradually diminishing. As foreign aid is fast
depleting, more stress will be on the Bangladeshi resources to combat this refugee crisis.
Drug Smuggling
Drugs had always been considered as a problem in Bangladesh. Due to the geographical
location, the drug smuggling gangs had prefer Bangladesh as a route for drugs. Bangladesh is
situated right between the two major drug producing hotspots. With the Rohingya refugee
coming to Bangladesh across the border and conflict continuing in Afghanistan, drugs related
problems must be taken seriously. Bangladesh has direct air, sea and road communications
with almost all the major drug producing countries in the region. This has placed Bangladesh at
a critical geographical crossroads for illicit drugs from Myanmar, India, Pakistan and Nepal. Drug
abuse directly influences the economic and social aspects of a country. In Bangladesh it is a
growing national concern. There are millions of drug-addicted people in Bangladesh and most
of them are young, between the ages of 18 and 30, affecting people from all strata of the
society. Policies should be taken to combat this endemic before we lose youth and their
potentials.
The Financial Security

The growth domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.1 per cent in 2019-
2020 according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although there is significant growth
taking place in financial sector across the country, there are risks that can halt the sustainable
development and the growth of this sector. The bad loans and volatile nature of the capital
market was of the major risks in the last financial year. There are state own financial
institutions are yet to go through much needed structural adjustments. Information
transparency and low barriers to entry both are lacking in banking sector due to
regulatory shortcomings. Any further volatility in the capital market or political instability can
also setback the much desired economic development.
Climate Security and Disaster

Bangladesh is a disaster prone country with very limited resources. The rise of temperature, the
frequent occurrence of natural disaster had created havoc in parts of rural Bangladesh in recent
years. The rise of temperature that would melt the icebergs worldwide would lead to massive
flood on an epic proportion. The country is relatively small with a huge population; any natural
disaster would significantly damage our limited arable land. This will trigger a huge food
security issue across the country. Any form of prolonged torrential flooding, cyclone, river
erosion and intense saline intrusion would have a disastrous effect on the food production. The
country is situated in the middle of major tectonic plates. The geographical location and the
population density are making the capital Dhaka extremely vulnerable to earth quakes. Any
possible food production crisis in 2019 might trigger other security issues such as public
disobedience and a whole host of social unrest.
Cyber Security
In the recent years, cyber criminals have made their ways into Bangladesh. One of the most
notorious cyber crimes was the persistent attacks on Bangladesh Bank’s cyber infrastructures.
The cyber heist does not only an indication of increasing capacity of criminal organizations
targeting the state owned banks but also different tactics they employ to break into secure
banking system. Thousands of people use the internet to communicate, share information and
conduct trade and commerce thanks to massive internet penetration in Bangladesh. More
people, businesses and devices are connecting to the information highway, would expose
themselves to new and cunning cyber ploys, orchestrated by transnational criminals, unless
there are programmes to educate people about the risks involved online. The use of fake news
through social media platforms had grown in recent years and especially during the pre-
election period. The disinformation campaign waged by the miscreants unveils the fact that
disinformation campaign is slowly becoming part of the negative campaign designed to
undermine political opponents. As the nature of cyber crime continues to evolve, only a new
set of counter measures would be able to protect our general public as well as critical
infrastructure in the year 2019. In the year 2019, steps should be taken to strengthen the
security measures against the ever evolving nature of cyber crimes.
Conclusion
There are different security challenges lies ahead in the year 2019. Appropriate policy options
as well as implementation is needed to mitigate security threats and produce contingency
planning as the country faces new challenges in the year 2019.
Khaled Nasir is a Senior Research Associate at Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security
Studies (BIPSS). His research focus areas include countering violent extremism, counter
narratives strategies and cyber security.

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The Security Trends

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Security Outlook 2019

Mr. Khaled Nasir

Militancy and Terrorism

The Ongoing Rohingya Problem

The Financial Security

Climate Security and Disaster

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