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    QTR PVB 12-720 PVB 34-720 PVB 1-720 PVB 34-420 PVB 1-420: Total

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    Saswata Choudhury
    This document contains monthly sales data for different product lines over multiple years. It then performs time series forecasting using simple exponential smoothing. Metrics like mean absolute error, mean average error, and combinations of forecasts are calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy.

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    QTR PVB 12-720 PVB 34-720 PVB 1-720 PVB 34-420 PVB 1-420: Total

    Uploaded by

    Saswata Choudhury
    33 views3 pages
    This document contains monthly sales data for different product lines over multiple years. It then performs time series forecasting using simple exponential smoothing. Metrics like mean absolute error, mean average error, and combinations of forecasts are calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Original Title

    forecasting

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    This document contains monthly sales data for different product lines over multiple years. It then performs time series forecasting using simple exponential smoothing. Metrics like mean absolute error, mean average error, and combinations of forecasts are calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    33 views3 pages

    QTR PVB 12-720 PVB 34-720 PVB 1-720 PVB 34-420 PVB 1-420: Total

    Uploaded by

    Saswata Choudhury
    This document contains monthly sales data for different product lines over multiple years. It then performs time series forecasting using simple exponential smoothing. Metrics like mean absolute error, mean average error, and combinations of forecasts are calculated to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
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    PVB PVB PVB PVB PVB

    Qtr Total
    12-720 34-720 1-720 34-420 1-420

    1 2,108 6,716 10,688 7,158 842 27,512


    2 2,516 11,510 21,688 7,034 3,050 45,798
    3 2,954 18,438 40,814 9,026 5,736 76,968
    4 2,224 10,456 19,510 7,254 4,414 43,858
    1 1,788 9,464 9,824 6,968 2,536 30,580
    2 2,512 12,942 21,848 9,156 6,740 53,198
    3 3,540 21,640 48,936 8,134 6,454 88,704
    4 3,666 11,650 24,640 6,958 4,676 51,590
    1 3,546 11,270 12,400 5,208 2,948 35,372
    2 5,596 15,322 23,692 6,806 6,424 57,840
    3 5,948 19,424 47,904 10,446 9,666 93,388
    4 4,892 13,310 26,990 7,960 5,754 58,906
    1 4,311 10,214 13,851 7,397 3,609 39,382
    2 6,637 20,983 31,507 9,043 7,049 75,219
    3 7,823 27,492 66,644 11,233 9,676 122,868
    4 6,652 19,535 17,337 7,496 3,976 54,996
    1 6,235 28,020 11,163 384 2,357 48,159
    X Actual Yhat Sesonality
    absolute
    Forecasted Bias error square of errors
    1 27,512 41,617 0.56 23128 4,384 4384 19218324
    2 45,798 44,036 0.97 42749 3,049 3049 9298670
    3 76,968 46,455 1.60 74223 2,745 2745 7534313
    4 43,858 48,875 0.88 42803 1,055 1055 1112263
    5 30,580 51,294 0.56 28506 2,074 2074 4301779
    6 53,198 53,713 0.97 52143 1,055 1055 1113976
    7 88,704 56,132 1.60 89684 (980) 980 960647
    8 51,590 58,552 0.88 51278 312 312 97250
    9 35,372 60,971 0.56 33884 1,488 1488 2214963
    10 57,840 63,390 0.97 61536 (3,696) 3696 13663894
    11 93,388 65,809 1.60 105145 (11,757) 11757 138229939
    12 58,906 68,228 0.88 59753 (847) 847 717310
    13 39,382 70,648 0.56 39262 120 120 14515
    14 75,219 73,067 0.97 70930 4,289 4289 18392160
    15 122,868 75,486 1.60 120606 2,262 2262 5116103
    16 54,996 77,905 0.88 68228 (13,232) 13232 175078719
    17 48,159 80,325 0.56 44639 3,520
    18 59,761 3334 24816552
    19
    20 Forecast Real Absolute Value
    Executive 53560.00 48159.00 -5401.00 5401.00
    Opinion

    Square of Errors
    to be minimised 45245.71 48159.00 2913.29 2913.29
    using solver

    Combination 98805.71 48159.00 -50646.71 50646.71


    MAE
    (mean Mean
    average Average
    Slope Intercept SSNL error) Error
    2419.2191 39197.825 4.00 3334 24816552
    m a

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