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In general, the global airline industry encountered substantial rises in passenger demand following the
liberalization policies that began in the mid-1970s. Decreasing air fares owing, in part, to the inflow of low-cost aircraft, increased flight frequency, the increase in routes and preservation of safety (Savage 2004) also revealed the advantage of passengers that the skies have been opened up to greater competition. These initiatives also also helped improve the profitability of airlines with decreased actual costs per ton mile sales and raised the number of passenger seats (Winston, 1998). However, carrier output was affected by economic downturns in this sector, such as the major recession of the period 2007-2008. Today, because of the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 (COvid-19), the industry faces just such a threat. The economic difficulties present by the COVID-19 pandemic are special, as they generate health threats for travelers as this sector has encountered past economic recessions. Compared to the prior financial crises, the possible seriousness of this downturn in the airline sector was shown by the fact that resulting economic development encouraged increased demand for air transport services in previous economic crises. On the contrary, market demand following COVID-19 is likely, even if a higher post-COVID passenger income promotes increased demand for air transport services, to entail improvements in flight that hinder the abilities of carriers to fly at their capacity. In addition, the International Aeronautical Transportation Association (IATA) survey results show that airlines expect the recovery to take at least one year, with some airlines assuming it to take longer 1. This is in line with the trust study carried out by the air passenger, where 30% of those interviewed did not fly for at least six months2. The aviation industry is then expected to enjoy an extremely lenient rebound. Historical information on the impact of disease outbreaks upon air travel indicates that during the 2003 extreme acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), during which it took around 9 months for a passenger kilometer of sales to return to their pre-crisis (IATA, 2020c)3 stage, the longest recovery time was observed. In comparison, the IATA forecasts that the COVID-19 effect could outweigh that of SARS, mainly due to the substantial impact of COVID-19 on China's airline industry and the region's non-trivial share of global aviation industry4.
The pandemic poses a major challenge for airline companies in the Asia-Pacific region, as reported by the above IATA findings. In reality, in February 2020, airlines based in this region experienced a drastic decrease of 41.3% of passenger sales per annum compared with 14.1% in all regions5. Further more, over the same observation period, airlines in the Asia-Pacific region suffered a 15.1% erosion in the proportion of passenger seats relative to a 4.8% decrease in the industry as a whole, primarily as a result of widespread movement management orders6. This has also had a negative effect for the freight industry, with a regional average cargo tone-kilometer drop of 5.9 per cent in January 2020 for airlines in the Asia- Pacific region, relative to a worldwide decline of 3.3 per cent in January 2020. The Asia Pacific currently serves the greatest number of passengers, as in February 2020, 34.7% of all airline travelers were transported globally by airlines located in this country.
Access to fair transportation alternatives contributes to the vulnerability of this industry to economic downturns, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. Airline transport on ground, particularly in Asia8 was shown to be a near replacement for high speed passenger rail8. Operations in air carriage of passengers under competitive strain from passenger rails before and after COVID-19 recovery. Partly since rail carriers can offer regular service to a vast number of cars per railway, allowing them to physically distancing themselves while transportation of huge numbers of passengers, the difficulty for airline companies in Asia-Pacific to compete with passengers during a pandemic has increased. The use of big aircraft carriers to carry a huge amount of passengers when carrying on a social distance is even more restricted by air transport firms. This restriction is due to the fact that many airports are poorly designed for jumbo jets. Air travel industry is also facing rising market pressure, in addition to competition from airlines providing rail services, because internet access is improving. Video conferencing, in comparison to rail, offers a realistic alternative to sea lane transportation. Moreover, the related health threats associated with passenger travel are not present in this connectivity9. The study of the efficiency impact of the COVID-19 must also provide a review of the air transport operation minimizing the touch of passengers and considering the long-term erosion risk of passenger demand for this category of services.
