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    Project 5 Exponential and Logarithmic Regression

    Uploaded by

    Belle Sharrar
    The document contains information about trends in US national debt and population growth in Jasmine, New Mexico over time. Exponential and logarithmic regression models are fitted to the data. The models are used to predict future values for national debt and population. The accuracy of the models is assessed by comparing predictions to actual known values. A linear regression model is also fitted to data on life insurance premiums by age. The appropriate model to use for different ages is determined based on comparisons between model predictions and actual premiums.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Project 5 Exponential and Logarithmic Regression

    Uploaded by

    Belle Sharrar
    104 views6 pages
    The document contains information about trends in US national debt and population growth in Jasmine, New Mexico over time. Exponential and logarithmic regression models are fitted to the data. The models are used to predict future values for national debt and population. The accuracy of the models is assessed by comparing predictions to actual known values. A linear regression model is also fitted to data on life insurance premiums by age. The appropriate model to use for different ages is determined based on comparisons between model predictions and actual premiums.

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    The document contains information about trends in US national debt and population growth in Jasmine, New Mexico over time. Exponential and logarithmic regression models are fitted to the data. The models are used to predict future values for national debt and population. The accuracy of the models is assessed by comparing predictions to actual known values. A linear regression model is also fitted to data on life insurance premiums by age. The appropriate model to use for different ages is determined based on comparisons between model predictions and actual premiums.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    104 views6 pages

    Project 5 Exponential and Logarithmic Regression

    Uploaded by

    Belle Sharrar
    The document contains information about trends in US national debt and population growth in Jasmine, New Mexico over time. Exponential and logarithmic regression models are fitted to the data. The models are used to predict future values for national debt and population. The accuracy of the models is assessed by comparing predictions to actual known values. A linear regression model is also fitted to data on life insurance premiums by age. The appropriate model to use for different ages is determined based on comparisons between model predictions and actual premiums.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    You are on page 1of 6

    a.

    US National Debt US National Debt ($1,000,000,000)


    Year ($1,000,000,000)
    30 16.19 20,000.00

    40 42.97 18,000.00 f(x) = 2.14832171375458 exp( 0.078925307353054 x )


    50 257.30 16,000.00
    60 286.30 14,000.00

    US National Debt
    70 370.90 12,000.00
    80 907.70 10,000.00
    90 3,233.00 8,000.00
    100 5,659.00 6,000.00
    105 7,918.00 4,000.00
    110 13,551.00 2,000.00
    115 18,138.00 0.00
    20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

    An exponential regression model is suggested. Year

    b.
    y=2.1483e^0.0789x

    c.
    y=2.1483e^0.0789*117
    y=21,938.02764
    The actual US debt in 2017 was 20,233 which means our model is 1,705 higher than the real number.
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#/media/File:USDebt.png

    d.
    30000=2.1483e^0.0789x
    13964.53009=e^0.0789x
    ln13964.53009=0.0789x
    9.544275829=0.0789x
    120.9667405=x
    The national debt will reach 30 trillion dollars in 2021.
    00,000)

    78925307353054 x )

    90 100 110 120


    a.
    Population Population Growth in Jasmine
    (in 000's) Year
    120
    1.25 40
    3.3 50 100
    f(x) = 17.9313725889741 ln(x) + 29.8672525360991
    6.6 60 80
    12 70 60

    Year
    21 80
    40
    30 90
    45 100 20
    60 110 0
    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

    A logarithmic regression model is suggested. Population (in 000's)

    b.
    y=17.931ln(x)+29.867

    c.
    y=17.931ln(50)+29.867
    y=100.0134845
    The population was 50,000 in the year 2000.
    The equation predicted that the population would be 50,000 in the year 2000, but our chart indicates that it was only 45,000 -

    d.
    117=17.931ln(x)+29.867
    87.133=17.931ln(x)
    4.85934973=ln(x)
    e^4.85934973=x
    x=128.9403288
    The population of Jasmine, New Mexico will be 128,940 in 2017.
    mine

    60991

    50 60 70

    s that it was only 45,000 - 5,000 less.


    a.
    Age Annual Premium
    25 $ 330.00 Premiums for 55+
    30 $ 335.00
    $4,500.00
    35 $ 360.00
    40 $ 432.00 $4,000.00
    f(x) = 271.7 x − 13595.6666666667
    45 $ 619.00 $3,500.00

    Annual Premium
    50 $ 919.00 $3,000.00
    55 $ 1,455.00 $2,500.00
    60 $ 2,492.00 $2,000.00
    65 $ 4,172.00 $1,500.00
    $1,000.00
    $500.00
    $-
    54 56 58 60 62 64 66
    Age

    b.
    y=271.7x-13596

    c.
    Linear % Exp %
    linear exponential Differenc Differenc
    age premium prediction prediction e e
    55 1455 1348 1558 93% 107%
    60 2492 2706 2165 109% 87%
    65 4172 4065 3006 97% 72%

    d.

    The linear regression model would be better to predict the annual premium for a 64 year-
    old. The difference between the linear model and the actual premiums is less than the
    difference between the exponential model and the actual premiums.

    e.

    The exponential regression model would be better for predicting the annual premium for a
    27 year-old person. This is because the linear model would predict a premium than is much
    lower than the actual premium for 27 year-olds since it wouldn't take into account the
    exponential growth experienced in the life insurance industry.
    Premiums by Age
    +
    $4,500.00
    $4,000.00
    67 $3,500.00

    Annual Premium
    $3,000.00
    f(x) = 42.0118713829829 exp( 0.0657217950710328 x )
    $2,500.00
    $2,000.00
    $1,500.00
    $1,000.00
    $500.00
    $-
    20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
    62 64 66
    Age

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