SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

www.siena.edu/sri
For Immediate Release: Contact: PDF version; crosstabs; website: Thursday, July 14, 2011 Steven Greenberg, 518-469-9858 www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY

Siena College Poll:

Voters: 2011 Legislative Session Moves NYS on Right Track; Strong Plurality Says Albany has Become Less Dysfunctional
New Yorkers Evenly Divided on DECs Hydrofracking Recommendation
Cuomo Ratings Inch Higher, as Huge Majority Call 2016 Presidential Speculation Premature; Small Majority Oppose VP Cuomo in 2012
Loudonville, NY. Half of New York voters say that the recently completed 2011 legislative session has moved the state forward on the right track, compared to only nine percent who say the session moved New York in the wrong direction. Similarly, 48 percent say this years session shows that state government has become less dysfunctional, compared to 18 percent who say it has become more dysfunctional, according to a new Siena College Research Institute poll of registered voters released today. Voters are nearly evenly divided on the New York State Department of Environmental Conservations (DEC) recommendation to allow hydrofracking in a large portion of the Marcellus Shale, even though a majority is more inclined to trust the arguments of opponents of hydrofracking rather than the arguments of supporters. Governor Andrew Cuomos favorability and job performance ratings inched higher this month, as voters give the Governor a better grade than they give either house of the Legislature for their effectiveness in the legislative session. While still negative, the favorability ratings for the Senate and Assembly rose significantly in the last month. More than four in five voters call Cuomo 2016 presidential speculation premature, with only 14 percent calling the speculation deserved. If President Obama decides to change running mates in his re-election run next year, 39 percent would support Obama choosing Cuomo, compared to 51 percent who oppose that idea. Many pundits and newspaper editorials have called the 2011 legislative session one of the most productive in years, and New Yorkers clearly agree, said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. Fifty percent of voters including a majority of Democrats, independents and voters from New York City, and a plurality of voters from upstate and the downstate suburbs say the session moves the state forward in the right direction. Only nine percent say the session moves the state in the wrong direction, and 36 percent including a plurality of Republicans say that this session hasnt really changed New Yorks direction. more

Siena College Poll July 14, 2011 Page 2 For years, the word most often heard to describe state government generally and the Legislature specifically has been dysfunctional. In voters minds, the Governor and Legislature took a step forward this year to change that, Greenberg said. Nearly half including at least 45 percent of Democrats, Republicans and voters from every region said this years session shows that state government has become less dysfunctional, while only 18 percent said it has become more dysfunctional and 28 percent said the level of dysfunction remains unchanged. Strong Majorities of Voters See Property Tax Cap & Legislative Disclosure as Moving State Forward More than two-thirds of voters 68 percent say the new property tax law moves the state forward on the right track, compared to only 15 percent who say it takes the state in the wrong direction. By an even larger 73-5 percent margin, voters say the new ethics disclosure law for legislators moves the state in the right direction, Greenberg said. The new law legalizing same sex marriages moves the state on the right track, according to 46 percent of voters, and takes the state in the wrong direction according to 28 percent. Voters Divided on DECs Hydrofracking Recommendation; Majority Trust Hydrofracking Opponents While only a little more than one-third of downstaters have paid a great deal or some attention to the debate over hydrofracking in the Marcellus Shale, nearly two-thirds of upstaters have been following the debate at least somewhat, Greenberg said. That regional difference doesnt, however, carry over to voters attitudes on the DECs recommendation to allow hydrofracking, or on whether to trust hydrofracking supporters or opponents. Statewide, 45 percent of voters favor DECs recommendation and 43 percent oppose it. Upstate, 47 percent favor, 45 percent oppose; in the downstate suburbs, 47 percent favor, 40 percent oppose; and, 41 percent in New York City favor while 42 percent oppose. By a 54-33 percent margin, voters statewide say they are more inclined to trust hydrofracking opponents rather than supporters, a view held by 53 percent in New York City, 54 percent in the downstate suburbs and 55 percent upstate. Although significantly more voters are currently inclined to trust the arguments of hydrofracking opponents over those of supporters, the debate over whether or not hydrofracking should be permitted in New York has failed so far to produce a clear majority for either position either statewide or upstate, Greenberg said. Cuomos Favorability and Job Performance Ratings, Already High, Inch Even Higher Cuomo has a 71-21 percent favorability rating, up slightly from 68-21 percent last month. His job performance rating also rose slightly to 58-40 percent, up from 55-41 percent last month. Voters continue to have an overwhelmingly favorable view of Andrew Cuomo and a largely positive view of the job he is doing as Governor, Greenberg said. Only among conservative voters does Cuomos favorability drop below 60 percent, and even they give him a 59-35 percent favorability rating. Similarly, conservatives are the only group with a majority giving Cuomo a negative job performance rating. more

Siena College Poll July 14, 2011 Page 3 When asked to grade Cuomos effectiveness in his first legislative session, 62 percent of voters give him an A (21 percent) or B (41 percent), with 20 percent grading him C, seven percent D and six percent F. Overall, voters give the Governor a grade point average or GPA of 2.67 or B- for the session, Greenberg said. Cuomo for President? Way Too Early. Obamas Running Mate in 2012? Not So Much Presidential speculation is nothing new for New York governors, however, voters think it is way too early to start printing Cuomo 2016 bumper stickers, Greenberg said. At least 80 percent of voters from every party and region say that the speculation is premature and he should focus on his responsibilities as governor. If the President wants a new VP running mate next year, a majority of New York voters say they hope he doesnt choose Cuomo for the job. This view is held by a majority or plurality of voters from every party and region, interestingly, however, it is most opposed in New York City and least opposed upstate, Greenberg said. Senate & Assembly See Boost in Favorability; Arent Graded as High as Cuomo on Session The State Senate is viewed favorably by 41 percent of voters and unfavorably by 49 percent (up from 30-56 percent last month). The Assembly has a 38-47 favorability rating (up from 26-56 percent). For each house, about a third of voters graded their session effectiveness as an A or B, about a third gave them a C, and about a quarter graded them as D or F. The Senates GPA was 2.05 and the Assemblys was 2.03, or Cs for both. After this session, voters see state government as less dysfunctional and both houses of the Legislature enjoy considerably better albeit still negative favorability ratings. The Assembly saw a 21-point improvement in its favorability rating and the Senate improved by 18 points, Greenberg said. Who knows, another year like this one and voters might actually have a favorable view of one or both houses of the Legislature. Obama Favorability Continues to Slowly Edge Lower; Job Performance Rating Falls Sharply President Obamas favorability has slipped to its lowest level since last December, 57-39 percent, down slightly from 59-38 percent last month, Greenberg said. Since May, however, his job performance rating fell from a positive 53-47 percent then to a now negative 45-55 percent rating. Still, however, a bare majority of New Yorkers say they are prepared to re-elect Obama next year, little changed from last month. Voters Say State Headed on Right Track; Major Turnaround for Downstate Suburban & Upstate Voters More voters, 48 percent, now think the New York State is headed on the right track than at any time since February 2007, while 40 percent believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, Greenberg said. This is a large turnaround since last month, particularly among downstate suburban and upstate voters. ###
This Siena College Poll was conducted July 6-11, 2011 by telephone calls to 813 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.4 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, gender, and region to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing to landline and cell phones weighted to reflect known population patterns. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.

SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY
www.siena.edu/sri

Siena College Poll Trends July 2011

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Andrew Cuomo? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 31, 2010* October 20, 2010* October 5, 2010* September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 71 21 68 21 71 20 73 18 69 20 77 16 70 17 66 25 64 26 57 38 62 34 56 37 60 31 61 27 62 25 77 (2/11) 42 (10/06) 44 (8/06, 10/06) 14 (8/09) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 8 12 9 8 11 7 13 8 9 5 3 7 9 13 13 24 (1/06, 2/06, 9/07) 3 (10/20/10)

How would you rate the job that Andrew Cuomo is doing as Governor? Would you rate it excellent, good, fair, or poor? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER EXCELLENT GOOD 15 43 11 44 9 43 11 43 8 43 10 47 10 34 15 (7/11) 47 (2/11) 8 (3/11) 34 (1/11) FAIR 32 32 36 34 34 29 24 36 (5/11) 24 (1/11) POOR DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 8 1 9 5 9 3 7 4 7 8 4 10 4 28 9 (6/11, 5/11) 28 (1/11) 4 (2/11, 1/11) 1 (7/11)

Based on what youve seen of him as Governor so far, would you describe Andrew Cuomo as a liberal, a moderate or a conservative? DATE July 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 35 50 8 8 22 57 12 9 18 57 15 10 20 60 11 9 21 57 15 7 25 55 10 10 35 (7/11) 60 (3/11) 15 (4/11, 2/11) 10 (4/11, 1/11) 21 (2/11) 50 (7/11) 8 (7/11) 7 (2/11)

Governor Cuomo has said he is dedicated to improving the economy of New York, to making us the Empire State again. What grade would you give the governor on his efforts so far to improve the economy of New York? Would you give him a grade of A, B, C, D or F? DATE July 2011 May 2011 HIGHEST EVER LOWESTE EVER A B 9 34 9 35 9 (7&5/11) 35 (5/11) 9 (7&5/11) 34 (7/11) C D 35 12 37 8 37 (5/11) 12 (7/11) 35 (7/11) 8 (5/11) F DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 7 4 6 5 7 (7/11) 5 (5/11) 6 (5/11) 4 (7/11)

Siena College Poll Trends July 2011

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Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the New York State Assembly? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 March 2011 January 2011 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 38 26 32 30 29 25 40 (2/09) 25 (7/10) UNFAVORABLE 47 56 54 56 57 61 61 (7/10) 42 (2/09) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 15 18 14 14 14 13 18 (6/11, 2/09) 12 (1/10)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Sheldon Silver? DATE July 2011 April 2011 February 2011 December 2010 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 22 36 22 39 19 41 22 42 20 40 28 (7/05) 42 (12/10) 19 (2/11, 4/05) 30 (4/05) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 41 39 39 36 41 50 (4/05) 36 (12/10, 6/09)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the New York State Senate? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 March 2011 January 2011 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 41 30 33 32 33 25 43 (2/09) 20 (7/09) UNFAVORABLE 49 56 56 60 56 66 74 (7/09) 43 (2/09) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 10 14 12 8 11 8 14 (6/11) 6 (7/09)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Dean Skelos? DATE July 2011 April 2011 February 2011 December 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 13 11 11 9 15 (6/09) 9 (12/10) UNFAVORABLE 20 19 17 19 23 (6/09) 8 (7/08) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 67 69 71 71 82 (11/08) 62 (6/09)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Kirsten Gillibrand? DATE July 2011 May 2011 February 2011 November 2010 October 31, 2010* October 20, 2010* September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 49 51 57 50 52 51 43 40 34 57 (2/11) 26 (3/09) UNFAVORABLE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 21 30 20 29 18 25 24 26 34 14 31 18 26 30 29 31 29 37 34 (10/31/10) 56 (1/09) 14 (1/09) 14 (10/31/10)

Siena College Poll Trends July 2011

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I know its a ways off, but if Kirsten Gillibrand runs for re-election as United State Senator in 2012, would you vote to re-elect her or would you prefer someone else? DATE July 2011 May 2011 February 2011 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER RE-ELECT PREFER SOMEONE ELSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 50 29 21 50 30 20 52 29 19 52 (2/11) 30 (5/11) 21 (7/11) 50 (7/11, 5/11) 29 (7/11, 2/11) 19 (2/11)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Barack Obama? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 31, 2010* October 20, 2010* September 2010 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 57 59 62 63 60 62 61 55 58 51 56 60 60 81 (1/09) 48 (11/06) UNFAVORABLE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 39 4 38 4 36 2 34 3 37 3 35 3 36 3 42 3 37 5 46 3 41 3 36 4 37 3 46 (10/31/10) 40 (11/06) 10 (1/09) 2 (5/11)

How would you rate the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? Would you rate it excellent, good, fair, or poor? DATE July 2011 May 2011 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER EXCELLENT GOOD 13 32 16 37 16 (5/11) 37 (5/11) 13 (7/11) 32 (7/11) FAIR 30 24 30 (7/11) 24 (5/11) POOR DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 25 1 23 0 25 (7/11) 1 (7/11) 23 (5/11) 0 (5/11)

Barack Obama is running for re-election as President in 2012. I know its a ways off, but as things stand now, would you vote to reelect him or would you prefer someone else? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER RE-ELECT PREFER SOMEONE ELSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 50 41 9 52 44 4 54 39 6 52 39 9 49 43 8 49 43 8 50 40 10 43 47 10 54 (5/11) 47 (12/10) 10 (1/11, 12/10) 43 (12/10) 39 (5/11, 4/11) 4 (6/11)

Siena College Poll Trends July 2011

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Is the United States on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? DATE July 2011 May 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER RIGHT TRACK WRONG DIRECTION 35 55 43 49 34 57 44 47 36 54 30 59 39 51 41 52 62 (5/09) 69 (10/08) 19 (10/08) 24 (12/09) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 17 (9/08) 7 (5/09)

How would you describe the fiscal condition of New York State right now? Would you describe it as excellent, good, fair, or poor? DATE July 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 November 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR 1 8 40 0 9 33 1 8 32 1 7 30 0 7 26 0 7 27 1 (many) 14 (9/08) 43 (10/08) 0 (many) 6 (3/22/10, etc.) 25 (3/22/10) POOR DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 51 1 57 1 58 0 62 1 66 1 65 1 67 (3/22/10) 4 (9/08) 41 (9/08) 0 (4/11, etc.)

Is New York State on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? DATE July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 31, 2010* October 20, 2010* October 5, 2010* September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER Poll Trend Notes: RIGHT TRACK WRONG DIRECTION DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 48 40 12 38 47 15 40 49 11 46 41 13 43 45 12 47 39 14 36 50 14 29 60 11 32 54 15 14 76 10 14 75 12 16 72 11 21 68 11 21 67 12 20 71 9 52 (11/06) 76 (10/31/10) 30 (1/07) 14 (10/31 & 20/10) 26 (1/07) 9 (7/10)

* All surveys are of registered voters except for the polls of October 2010, September and October 2008, and September and October 2006, which are polls of likely voters. Trends reflect questions asked at least twice since the first Siena College Poll in February 2005. Results listed here include all times questions have been asked since July 2010. Highest Ever and Lowest Ever is provided at the bottom of each question. Inconsequential wording change.