2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment For Australia
2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment For Australia
2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment For Australia
T. Allen
GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA
RECORD 2018/33
T. I. Allen
Department of Industry, Innovation and Science
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia: Senator the Hon Matthew Canavan
Secretary: Dr Heather Smith PSM
Geoscience Australia
Chief Executive Officer: Dr James Johnson
This paper is published with the permission of the CEO, Geoscience Australia
With the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms and where otherwise noted, this product is
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Geoscience Australia has tried to make the information in this product as accurate as possible.
However, it does not guarantee that the information is totally accurate or complete. Therefore, you
should not solely rely on this information when making a commercial decision.
Geoscience Australia is committed to providing web accessible content wherever possible. If you are
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Bibliographic reference: Allen, T. I. 2018. The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for
Australia: data package, maps and grid values. Record 2018/33. Geoscience Australia, Canberra.
http://dx.doi.org/10.11636/Record.2018.033
Contents
Executive Summary................................................................................................................................. iv
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................1
2 Hazard Maps .........................................................................................................................................3
3 Locality Data ........................................................................................................................................18
3.1 Hazard Factors ..............................................................................................................................18
3.2 Hazard Curves ...............................................................................................................................19
3.3 Uniform Hazard Spectra ................................................................................................................20
3.4 kp Factors .......................................................................................................................................21
3.5 Hazard Fractiles .............................................................................................................................23
4 Hazard Map Data Grids .......................................................................................................................24
4.1 Hazard Map Grid Files ...................................................................................................................24
4.2 Hazard Curve Grid Files ................................................................................................................24
4.3 Interpolation of Hazard Curve Grids ..............................................................................................25
4.3.1 Hazard Curves .........................................................................................................................25
4.3.2 Uniform Hazard Spectra ...........................................................................................................26
5 GIS Data Products ...............................................................................................................................27
5.1 GeoTIFF Files ................................................................................................................................27
5.2 Shapefile Contours ........................................................................................................................27
6 NSHA18 Data Package – Summary and Cautions .............................................................................29
7 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................30
8 References ..........................................................................................................................................31
Appendix A – NSHA18 Seismic Design Values .....................................................................................32
Appendix B – NSHA18 1/2500-Year Design Values ..............................................................................36
Appendix C – 1/475-Year PGA Hazard Fractiles ...................................................................................40
Appendix D – 1/2475 PGA Hazard Fractiles ..........................................................................................44
Geoscience Australia, together with contributors from the wider Australian seismology community, has
produced a National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) that is intended as an update to
Geoscience Australia’s 2012 National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM12; Burbidge, 2012) and its 2013
revision (NSHM13; Leonard et al., 2013). The 2018 update takes advantage of recent developments
in earthquake hazard research and ensures the hazard model uses the best available, evidence-
based science.
This Geoscience Australia Record provides an overview of the output data products generated
through the development of the NSHA18. Time-independent, mean seismic design values are
calculated on Standards Australia’s AS1170.4 Site Class Be for the horizontal peak ground
acceleration (PGA) and for the geometric mean of the 5% damped response spectral accelerations,
Sa(T), for T = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 s. The hazard values are calculated across the
Australian continent using a uniformly-spaced 15 km grid. Hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra
are also calculated for key localities at the10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50-year hazard
levels. Uniform-probability seismic hazard maps of PGA, in addition to all spectral periods, are
provided for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years.
A Python script is provided to enable end users interpolate hazard curve grids and to export site-
specific hazard information given an input location and probability of exceedance (in the case of
uniform hazard spectra). Additionally, geographic information system (GIS) datasets are provided to
enable end users view and interrogate the NSHA18 outputs on a spatially enabled platform.
This is the most complete data publication for any previous Australian National Seismic Hazard
Assessment. It is intended ensure the NSHA18 outputs are openly available, discoverable and
accessible to enable end-users to integrate these data into their own applications.
Geoscience Australia is the pre-eminent public sector geoscience organisation and is the Australian
Government's trusted advisor on the geology and geography of Australia. The National Seismic
Hazard Assessment is a flagship Geoscience Australia product that informs public and private
strategies for earthquake risk mitigation across the country. The 2018 assessment (NSHA18)
incorporates global best practice and evidence-based science to deliver updated probabilistic seismic
hazard estimates for Australia (Allen et al., 2018). The NSHA18 was calculated on the National
Computational Infrastructure (NCI; nci.org.au/) using the OpenQuake-engine (Version 3.1; Pagani et
al., 2014).
A wide range of data products have been produced through the NSHA18 project (Allen et al., 2018),
including hazard maps and grids as well as site-specific hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra
(UHS) for localities indicated within Standards Australia’s structural design actions for earthquake
loading (AS1170.4–2007; Standards Australia, 2007) and additional localities of interest. Seismic
hazard values at these sites are calculated for three probability levels: 10%, 9.52% and 2% probability
of exceedance in 50 years. Hazard grids are tabulated for more than 54,000 locations over the
Australian territory and surrounding areas for the aforementioned probability levels. Hazard grids are
calculated for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and ten response spectral periods (for 5% damping) at
Sa(T), for T = 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 4.0. The spectral parameters for a regular
grid across Australia will allow the construction of uniform hazard spectra and hazard curves for any
locality in the country. For each spectral period (and PGA), hazard curves for the gridded localities are
provided, meaning that hazard values can be calculated for any reasonable exceedance probability.
However, in practice Geoscience Australia would not recommend extending the ground-motion return
period significantly beyond the 1% in 50-year exceedance probability (or a 1/4875 annual exceedance
probability [AEP]) given the uncertainties in long-term hazard forecasts. Python scripts to generate
hazard curves and UHS for a given probability of exceedance at any locality across the continent are
provided.
For the first time, the Geoscience Australia is providing the national seismic hazard maps in
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-enabled GeoTIFF files. The benefit of the GeoTIFF format is
that the maps can reprojected and interrogated in various GIS software packages. Seismic hazard
contours have also been produced for all spectral periods (including PGA) for selected exceedance
probabilities (2% and 10% in 50-year exceedance). These data products will enable end-users to
review the spatial distribution of seismic hazard relative to other spatial datasets, such as a civil
infrastructure portfolio (e.g. bridges, dams, pipelines, etc). It should be noted that the NSHA18 uses
national-scale datasets to calculate ground motion hazard at uniform probabilities of exceedance
across Australia. Because it is national in scale, the NSHA18 is not intended to be used as a
replacement for site-specific hazard studies for major infrastructure projects that may require a lower
tolerance for risk.
This Geoscience Australia Record provides maps of mean seismic hazard and describes data
products that may be downloaded and interrogated by users. The scientific rationale for the seismic
hazard estimates is provided in Allen et al. (2018) and references cited therein. The NSHA18 provides
estimates of seismic hazard for the six Australian states and two mainland territories. However, it does
not provide updated hazard factors for Australia’s Antarctic and other offshore territories (e.g.,
Christmas Island, Cocos Island, Heard Island, Lord Howe Island, Macquarie Island and Norfolk
A series of time-independent, uniform probability seismic hazard maps for varying ground-motion
periods and probabilities of exceedance are presented below (Figure 2-15). Maps for all spectral
periods calculated at the 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year level are shown. Selected spectral
periods for the 2% probability of exceedance in 50-year level are shown for PGA and Sa(T) at T = 0.2
and 1.0 second (Figure 2-15). The remainder of these static uniform-probability maps are provided in
the downloadable data package accompanying this Geoscience Australia Record.
Additional maps, gridded hazard values and geospatially-referenced raster files (see Section 5.1) are
available in the electronic data package accompanying this record. The file names follow the general
format: “hazard_map_NSHA18.<period>.<probability>.png”, where <period> is “PGA” or the spectral
period (i.e., “SA01”, which is equivalent to Sa[0.1 s]) and <probability> is the fractional probability of
exceedance in 50 years (i.e., “0.1” which is equivalent to 10%). Note that the colour scale of these
maps varies with the exceedance probability and spectral period.
Various ground-motion hazard metrics are provided for the localities listed in the AS1170.4–2007
(Table 3.2 in Standards Australia, 2007), as well as additional localities of interest. This section
describes the different data products, which include: seismic hazard factors; hazard curves; uniform
hazard spectra; probability factors kp, and; hazard fractiles. The data described in this section
represent the hazard for a particular locality with pre-defined spatial coordinates. It should be noted
that significant gradients of seismic hazard can exist across some of Australia’s larger urban centres.
Consequently, users are advised to use the information and datasets provided in Section 4 to
determine the site-specific hazard values should these pre-defined localities be of significant distance
from their location of interest.
Table 1: Seismic design factors, equivalent to PGA (in units of gravity g) for selected localities as provided in
different editions of the AS1170.4, in addition to alternate PGA values calculated through the NSHA18.
AS1170.4- AS1170.4-
NSHM13 NSHA18 NSHA18
Locality 2007 1/500 2018 Seismic
1/500 AEP 1/500 AEP 1/2475 AEP
AEP (Z) Design Factor
Adelaide, SA 0.10 0.10 0.058 0.036 0.126
With the introduction of the hazard floor of 0.08 g, the AS1170.4–2007 (R2018) now refers to the
“hazard factor” as the “hazard design factor” because the parameter no longer reflects a uniform
hazard probability in the updated loading standard (Standards Australia, 2018). Appendix A and B
provide hazard design factors from the AS1170.4–2007, NSHM13 and the NSHA18 for 1/500 and
1/2500 AEP, respectively. The PGA and spectral acceleration data are expressed as a proportion of
Table 2: Description of fields for hazard value comparison table in Folder 3.1 of the data package. The hazard
values indicated in the table are provided as PGA (in g) on Site Class Be.
Label Description
PLACE Name of locality
LON Locality longitude
LAT Locality latitude
2007PGA_500-YR 1/500 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as provided in Standards Australia’s
AS1170.4
2013PGA_500-YR 1/500 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as calculated in the NSHM12
2018PGA_475-YR 1/475 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as calculated in the NSHA18
2018PGA_500-YR 1/500 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as calculated in the NSHA18
2007/2013 %DIFF Percentage difference between the AS1170.4-2007 and NSHM12 1/500 PGA
values
2007/2018 %DIFF Percentage difference between the AS1170.4-2007 and NSHA18 1/500 PGA
values
2013/2018 %DIFF Percentage difference between the NSHM12 and NSHA18 1/500 PGA values
2007PGA_2500-YR 1/2500 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor calculated as the product of the 1/500
hazard factor multiplied by a kp factor of 1.8
2013PGA_2500-YR 1/2500 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as calculated in the NSHM12
2018PGA_2475-YR 1/2475 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as calculated in the NSHA18
2018PGA_2500-YR 1/2500 AEP PGA seismic hazard factor as calculated in the NSHA18
2007/2018_2500 %DIFF Percentage difference between the AS1170.4-2007 and NSHA18 1/2500-year
PGA values
2013/2018_2500 %DIFF Percentage difference between the NSHM12 and NSHA18 1/2500-year PGA
values
2007(500)/2018(2475) %DIFF Percentage difference between the AS1170.4-2007 1/500 and NSHA18 1/2500
PGA values
3.4 kp Factors
The probability factor (kp) is used in the AS1170.4 to scale 1/500 AEP hazard values to different
probabilities of exceedance. The kp factor is calculated by normalising the hazard curve by its value at
a recurrence interval of 500 years. Figure 18 shows the comparison of kp factors for the eight capital
cities across Australia. Tabulated kp factors are provided for several representative localities in
Table 3. For each of the AS1170.4 localities and additional sites, a kp factor file is provided in comma
separated value (.csv) format in Folder 3.4 of the data package. The notation for the file names is:
“<city name>_kpfact.csv”.
Table 3: Calculated probability factors (kp) from the NSHA18 for representative capital cities, compared to the
factors given in the AS1170.4–2007 (Standards Australia, 2007).
AS1170.4–
Annual Probability of Adelaide Canberra Perth Darwin
2007
Probability of Exceedance Probability Probability Probability Probability
Probability
Exceedance in 50 Years Factor (kp) Factor (kp) Factor (kp) Factor (kp)
Factor (kp)
1/5000 1.00% – 5.63 4.56 3.77 2.75
1/4000 1.24% – 4.83 4.05 3.34 2.44
1/3000 1.65% – 3.97 3.42 2.85 2.12
1/2500 1.98% 1.8 3.48 3.07 2.58 1.96
1/2475 2.00% – 3.46 3.06 2.56 1.95
1/2000 2.45% 1.7 2.97 2.68 2.27 1.77
1/1500 3.28% 1.5 2.40 2.22 1.93 1.56
1/1000 4.88% 1.3 1.77 1.68 1.52 1.32
1/800 6.06% 1.25 1.48 1.43 1.34 1.21
1/500 9.52% 1.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1/475 10.0% – 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98
1/250 18.1% 0.75 0.53 0.56 0.63 0.75
1/200 22.1% 0.7 0.42 0.46 0.54 0.68
1/100 39.3% 0.5 0.20 0.24 0.32 0.48
1/50 63.2% 0.35 0.09 0.11 0.17 0.29
1/25 86.5% 0.25 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.10
1/20 91.8% 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06
Data grids are provided for the NSHA18 in several formats. The grids range from pre-computed
hazard values at a specified location for a uniform probability of exceedance and any spectral period,
to grids of hazard curves that can be interpolated to any probability of exceedance. The hazard is
calculated for a uniform grid spaced at 15 km intervals across the Australian continent between 109-
158°E and a latitude range between 7-47°S. The number of sites in oceanic regions is reduced by
randomly sampling points outside of the Australian continent to help optimise the hazard computation,
while still providing constraint to interpolate offshore hazard contours. In total, hazard outputs are
generated for more than 54,000 grid points over the Australian territory and surrounding areas.
This section describes the data grid formats and introduces scripts that can be used to interpolate
these grids (both spatially and for a given probability of exceedance) to determine site-specific hazard
attributes for localities not pre-computed in Section 3.
For each spectral period, a .csv file is provided that yields seismic hazard for 10%, 9.52% and 2%
probability of exceedance in 50-years at each calculation point. The filename convention is:
“hazard_map-mean_<period>.csv” where the value for <period> is “PGA” or the spectral period (i.e.,
“SA(0.1)”.
Taking the natural logarithm of this equation, we find the number of exceedances n in our observation
period is:
Further information on calculating exceedance probabilities can be found at the following link:
earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/learn/basics.php#make.
Once the hazard curves calculated across the NSHA18 grid have been converted to annualised
exceedances, they can then be interpolated to return site-specific hazard curves and UHS. These
processes are discussed below.
> python
This will launch a Python command terminal. Alternatively, the user may prefer to use an iPython
terminal (i.e., type: ipython). Next, issue these commands:
where the input variables interp_lon (in ° East) and interp_lat (in ° South) are the coordinates
(in floating point format) of the site of interest in decimal degrees, and the siteName is a text string
used in the output file name. An example of the function’s use for the suburb of Parramatta in western
Sydney would be:
> python
where the input variables interp_lon (in ° East) and interp_lat (in ° South) are the coordinates
(in floating point format) of the site of interest in decimal degrees, percent_chance is the
percentage probability of exceedance (i.e., 10%, etc.), investigation_time is the time period to
which the probabilities of exceedance correspond (i.e., typically 50 years), and the siteName is a text
string used in the output file name. The UHS file for the given probability of exceedance (in .csv
format) is exported to the folder 4.3.2_interp_uhs. The filename convention is given as: uhs-mean-
<exceedance probability>_<period>_<interp_lon>E_<interp_lat>S_<siteName>.csv. The function can
be embedded within other codes and returns three NumPy arrays for the given locality:
• periodsNum: an array of spectral periods in floating point format. Note that the acceleration
for PGA has been assigned to the spectral period, T = 0.0.
An example of the function’s use for Parramatta for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years would
be:
This script currently only returns hazard curves for a single locality and exceedance probability at a
time. The script could be modified to optimise the interpolation of hazard curves for multiple sites
should a user require this functionality.
For the first time, the Geoscience Australia is providing the national seismic hazard maps in
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-enabled GeoTIFF files and as ESRI shapefile contours. These
data are intended to be easily uploaded into GIS platforms to enable analysis with other spatial
datasets. These GIS datasets are briefly discussed below.
The GeoTIFF files are generated by parsing the tabulated values for the various ground-motion
periods and exceedance probabilities. For each period and probability, these values are interpolated
across a uniform grid spacing of 0.05° (approximately 5.4 km at 15°S) using a 2-D cubic-spline
interpolation (scipy.org). Interpolated values outside of the region covered by the approximate
Australian maritime boundaries are assigned to NaN or “no data” values and are masked. The
interpolated grid values were subsequently converted to the GeoTIFF format using the Python
GDAL/OGR API (pcjericks.github.io/py-gdalogr-cookbook/). All GeoTIFF image files have been
generated using the WGS84 geodetic reference system.
A limited number of spectral periods and probabilities of exceedance are provided in GeoTIFF format
due to the file sizes. For each spectral period and probability, two GeoTIFF files are provided: one
single-band greyscale file and another three-band file coloured similarly to those shown in the maps
from Section 2. Single band GeoTIFF files provide acceleration values (in g) for PGA, and spectral
periods at 0.2 and 1.0 second for two exceedance probabilities (2% and 10% in 50-year exceedance).
Unfortunately, when recolouring the GeoTIFF image using the GDAL/OGR API, the underlying data is
replaced by an RGB value. It therefore depends on the end user’s application to determine the
preferred file of use. If users require both a coloured image and the underlying values, both files of
interest could be loaded into GIS platforms with the colour image overlying the single-band data file.
However, the latter file could be selected to query acceleration values at a given locality. The file
names of the coloured images are appended with the text “_coloured”. All GeoTIFF files can be found
in Folder 5.1 of the associated data package. Should users require GeoTIFF files for spectral periods
or probabilities of exceedance other than those within the data package, they may contact:
hazards@ga.gov.au.
• .shx: shape index format; a positional index of the feature geometry to allow quick searching;
• .dbf: attribute format; columnar attributes for each shape, in dBase IV format.
The feature attributes can be examined in the GIS software, or through opening the .dbf file in
Microsoft Excel, for example. There are also several optional files in the shapefile format. The most
significant of these is the .prj file, which describes the coordinate system and projection information
used.
This Geoscience Australia Record provides an overview of the data products generated through the
development of the NSHA18. Time-independent, mean seismic hazard values are calculated on
Standards Australia’s AS1170.4 Site Class Be for the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and
for the geometric mean of horizontal component ground motions for 5% damped response spectral
accelerations, Sa(T), for T = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 s over a 15-km national grid spacing.
The NSHA18 data package can be downloaded in concert with this Record as a compressed data
directory. As described throughout this Record, data files are located in a numbered folder structure
similar to the contents table provided at the beginning of this document and illustrated in Figure 1. The
data package contains static maps of hazard for different spectral periods and probabilities of
exceedance, .csv data files, GeoTIFF raster files and GIS shapefiles. Also provided herein are
Python codes that will enable end users calculate their own site specific hazard parameters from
gridded hazard curve files of different spectral periods.
This is the most complete data publication for any previous Australian National Seismic hazard
Assessment. It is intended ensure the NSHA18 outputs are openly available, discoverable and
accessible to enable end-users to integrate these data into their own applications.
It is important to note that distal grid points, beyond the Australian territory, are not likely to be as
accurate because the full model characterisation at these sites was not required to model contributing
earthquake ground motions for Australian localities. In these circumstances, Geoscience Australia
recommends users consult alternate regional seismic hazard assessments (Ghasemi et al., 2016;
Irsyam et al., 2017) developed specifically for these regions where it is appropriate to do so.
Note also that the locality values in the tabulated grid files are the definitive hazard values calculated
directly from the hazard model. Derivative products such as the GeoTIFF files or interpolated hazard
curves and spectra are an approximation to these values. However, the relative error with respect to
these interpolated values is typically expected to be less than 3-4% relative to site-specific
calculations.
Using the Python functions included in this package, hazard factors can be exported for any
reasonable exceedance probability. However, in practice Geoscience Australia would not recommend
extending the ground-motion return period significantly beyond the 1% in 50-year exceedance
probability (or a 1/4875 AEP). The NSHA18 uses national-scale datasets to calculate ground motion
hazard at uniform probabilities of exceedance across Australia. There is still significant uncertainty in
long-range hazard forecasts and users that require very low exceedance probabilities should consider
site specific assessments. Because the NSHA18 is a national-scale product, it is not intended to be
used as a replacement for site specific hazard studies for major infrastructure projects that may have
lower tolerance for risk.
The author wishes to thank the NSHA18 team members that have been integral to developing, testing
and reviewing input source and ground motion models for the NSHA18. In particular, the author
thanks Jonathan Griffin, Mark Leonard, Dan Clark, Hadi Ghasemi and Theodora Volti. Jane Sexton,
Mark Leonard and Martyn Hazelwood are thanked for their internal reviews and thoughtful comments
of this document.
The NSHA18 was calculated on the NCI using the OpenQuake-engine (Version 3.1; Pagani et al.,
2014). The Geoscience Australia NSHA18 team are particularly grateful to the Global Earthquake
Model team, in particular Marco Pagani, Michele Simionato and Graeme Weatherill (now at GFZ) for
their continued development, maintenance and support of the OpenQuake-engine. Rui Yang is also
thanked for the provision of support on the deployment and maintenance of the OpenQuake-engine on
the NCI. Python libraries Matplotlib (matplotlib.org/) and Basemap (matplotlib.org/basemap/) are used
for all figures in this report.
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(2016). Probabilistic seismic hazard map of Papua New Guinea, Nat. Hazards 81, 1003–1025, doi:
10.1007/s11069-015-2117-8.
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H. Ghasemi, R. Hoult, N. Lam, M. Leonard, T. Mote, M. Quigley, P. Somerville, C. Sinadinovski, M.
Stirling, and S. Venkatesan (2018). Expert elicitation of model parameters for the 2018 National
Seismic Hazard Assessment: Summary of workshop, methodology and outcomes, Geoscience
Australia Record 2018/28, Canberra, doi: 10.11636/Record.2018.028.
Irsyam, M., S. Widiyantoro, D. H. Natawidjaja, I. Meilano, A. Rudyanto, S. Hidayati, W. Triyoso, N. R.
Hanifa, D. Djarwadi, L. Faizal, and Sunarjito (2017). Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia
Tahun 2017, Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat, pp 376 (in Bahasa
Indonesia).
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The table below provides a comparison of the 1/500 annual exceedance probability (or 9.52%
probability of exceedance in 50-year) PGA on Site Class Be as calculated by the NSHA18, relative to
the values in the AS1170.4 and those calculated through the NSHM13 (Leonard et al., 2013)..
2007 PGA 500 2013 PGA 500 2018 PGA 475 2018 PGA 500
Place Longitude Latitude (9.52% in 50- (9.52% in 50- (10.0% in 50- (9.52% in 50-
Year) Year) Year) Year)
The table below provides a comparison of the 1/2500-year annual exceedance probability (or 1.98%
probability of exceedance in 50-year) PGA on Site Class Be as calculated by the NSHA18, relative to
the values in the 1/500 AEP AS1170.4 design values multiplied by a kp factor of 1.8 and those
calculated through the NSHM13 (Leonard et al., 2013).
The table below provides PGA hazard values for the mean and several fractiles for a 10% probability
of exceedance in 50 years (or 1/475 AEP). The percentile that corresponds to the mean hazard value
is provided in the final column. Hazard fractiles for alternate spectral periods at the same probability of
exceedance are provided in (Allen, 2018).
th th th
16 50 84 PERCEN-
PLACE LON LAT MEAN PGA PERCEN- PERCEN- PERCEN- TILE AT
TILE TILE TILE MEAN
Adelaide 138.60 138.60 0.035 0.019 0.034 0.051 52
Albany 117.88 117.88 0.019 0.010 0.016 0.026 66
Albury/Wodonga 146.90 146.90 0.022 0.012 0.020 0.030 52
Alice Springs 133.88 133.88 0.010 0.005 0.009 0.015 62
Ballarat 143.86 143.86 0.021 0.014 0.022 0.030 49
Ballidu 116.76 116.76 0.088 0.035 0.064 0.158 63
Bathurst 149.58 149.58 0.024 0.014 0.026 0.031 44
Bendigo 144.28 144.28 0.018 0.012 0.016 0.024 56
Brisbane 153.02 153.02 0.008 0.005 0.007 0.011 56
Broken Hill 141.46 141.46 0.010 0.005 0.009 0.014 59
Broome 122.23 122.23 0.045 0.029 0.043 0.061 56
Bunbury 115.66 115.66 0.020 0.012 0.018 0.028 60
Bundaberg 152.35 152.35 0.012 0.008 0.011 0.014 56
Burnie 145.90 145.90 0.014 0.011 0.014 0.017 53
Busselton 115.35 115.35 0.017 0.010 0.015 0.023 57
Cairns 145.76 145.76 0.011 0.008 0.010 0.014 58
Camden 150.70 150.70 0.025 0.016 0.026 0.032 47
Canberra 149.13 149.13 0.048 0.016 0.055 0.067 37
Carnarvon 113.66 113.66 0.033 0.028 0.033 0.039 50
Coffs Harbour 153.11 153.11 0.007 0.004 0.005 0.010 58
Coolgardie 121.16 121.16 0.046 0.012 0.022 0.091 70
Cooma 149.13 149.13 0.037 0.016 0.041 0.051 39
Dampier 116.71 116.71 0.035 0.026 0.033 0.042 61
Darwin 130.83 130.83 0.031 0.013 0.030 0.039 56
Denham 113.53 113.53 0.028 0.020 0.028 0.036 51
Derby 123.63 123.63 0.042 0.029 0.038 0.054 63
Dowerin 117.03 117.03 0.073 0.035 0.057 0.122 66
Dubbo 148.60 148.60 0.015 0.009 0.014 0.022 55
Esperance 121.88 121.88 0.017 0.010 0.015 0.022 61
The table below provides PGA hazard values for the mean and several fractiles for a 2% probability of
exceedance in 50 years (or 1/2475 AEP). The percentile that corresponds to the mean hazard value is
provided in the final column. Hazard fractiles for alternate spectral periods at the same probability of
exceedance are provided in (Allen, 2018).
th th th
16 50 84 PERCEN-
PLACE LON LAT MEAN PGA PERCEN- PERCEN- PERCEN- TILE AT
TILE TILE TILE MEAN
Adelaide 138.60 138.60 0.126 0.059 0.138 0.174 44
Albany 117.88 117.88 0.058 0.032 0.045 0.073 68
Albury 146.90 146.90 0.064 0.038 0.061 0.085 53
Alice Springs 133.88 133.88 0.035 0.015 0.027 0.047 67
Ballarat 143.86 143.86 0.065 0.041 0.066 0.083 48
Ballidu 116.76 116.76 0.312 0.106 0.199 0.465 70
Bathurst 149.58 149.58 0.068 0.039 0.071 0.081 43
Bendigo 144.28 144.28 0.057 0.041 0.055 0.071 54
Brisbane 153.02 153.02 0.029 0.018 0.029 0.037 51
Broken Hill 141.46 141.46 0.049 0.034 0.048 0.065 52
Broome 122.23 122.23 0.142 0.083 0.131 0.190 60
Bunbury 115.66 115.66 0.055 0.033 0.047 0.076 61
Bundaberg 152.35 152.35 0.038 0.031 0.036 0.043 60
Burnie 145.90 145.90 0.044 0.037 0.043 0.051 53
Busselton 115.35 115.35 0.046 0.030 0.042 0.060 61
Cairns 145.76 145.76 0.034 0.027 0.033 0.040 56
Camden 150.70 150.70 0.077 0.047 0.073 0.104 61
Canberra 149.13 149.13 0.152 0.046 0.157 0.210 43
Carnarvon 113.66 113.66 0.096 0.080 0.093 0.115 57
Coffs Harbour 153.11 153.11 0.023 0.011 0.018 0.032 58
Coolgardie 121.16 121.16 0.192 0.039 0.070 0.311 75
Cooma 149.13 149.13 0.106 0.046 0.108 0.138 46
Dampier 116.71 116.71 0.116 0.081 0.098 0.142 69
Darwin 130.83 130.83 0.061 0.038 0.055 0.079 64
Denham 113.53 113.53 0.086 0.060 0.085 0.103 52
Derby 123.63 123.63 0.131 0.083 0.113 0.159 64
Dowerin 117.03 117.03 0.236 0.100 0.176 0.387 71
Dubbo 148.60 148.60 0.050 0.034 0.045 0.065 60
Esperance 121.88 121.88 0.052 0.030 0.045 0.070 65