Earthen Construction
Earthen Construction
Earthen Construction
To cite this article: Alastair T. M. Marsh & Yask Kulshreshtha (2022) The state of earthen housing
worldwide: how development affects attitudes and adoption, Building Research & Information, 50:5,
485-501, DOI: 10.1080/09613218.2021.1953369
The state of earthen housing worldwide: how development affects attitudes and
adoption
a b
Alastair T. M. Marsh and Yask Kulshreshtha
a
School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK; bMaterials & Environment Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences,
Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Introduction
to replace traditional and/or indigenous materials
Earthen construction has a long history in human habi- (including earth) with ‘modern’ materials (e.g. fired
tats, including cultural or communal buildings as well as bricks, concrete) in order to improve dwellings’ robust-
housing (Houben & Guillaud, 1994). It has been (and ness and their occupants’ quality of life. In contrast, in
still is) used in many regions around the world. There developed countries there has been a renewed interest
is great diversity in both the form and quality of earthen in traditional and/or indigenous materials (again,
buildings, ranging from poor quality housing (Kulsh- including earth) for a range of motivations including
reshtha et al., 2020) to luxury developments and show- culture, aesthetics, environmental impacts and health
piece ‘starchitecture’ buildings (Ramage et al., 2019). (Hall et al., 2012).
Housing is a key part of the United Nations Sustain- Despite earth being a major construction material for
able Development Goals (SDGs) (United Nations, housing, the global distribution of earthen housing is
2015), particularly SDG 11 ‘Sustainable cities and com- poorly understood. So far, understanding is limited to
munities’ (Smets & Van Lindert, 2016). It also strongly certain regions, including India (Kulshreshtha et al.,
relates to numerous other SDGs, including SDG 1 ‘No 2020), France (Leylavergne, 2012; Antoine & Carnevale,
Poverty’, SDG 3 ‘Good Health and Wellbeing’, and 2016), Germany (Lehmbau Atlas, 2012) and Europe as a
SDG 13 ‘Climate Action’. Hereafter, ‘housing’ will be whole (Akermann et al., 2011). A wide range of earthen
used to refer to residential building stock in general, buildings (not limited to housing) were included within
and ‘dwelling’ will be used to refer to an individual resi- a study on earthen structures in the UNESCO World
dential unit occupied by a single household. Over recent Heritage List, but this was restricted to 150 sites (Gan-
decades, the world housing stock has undergone rapid dreau & Delboy, 2012). The majority of these previous
change in both scale and material use (Okpala, 1992). studies focussed on describing construction method
In developing countries, there is a widely held aspiration and architecture of the earthen dwellings, rather than
a quantitative description of their numbers. Within The approach of this study was to use national demo-
SDG 11, earthen housing is crucial to achieving targets graphic datasets in order to interrogate the status and
11.1 (universal access to adequate housing) and 11.c trends of earthen housing. The aim was to fill knowledge
(maximizing use of local materials in construction). gaps around: the distribution of earthen dwellings
However, one of the barriers to achieving these targets around the world and within countries; the changes in
is information – and in particular, these two key knowl- prevalence of -and attitudes towards-earthen housing
edge gaps: a quantitative understanding around the at different developmental stages; and, the overall preva-
worldwide distribution of earthen housing; and, the lence of earthen dwellings around the world.
trends of adoption for earthen housing in both highly
developed and developing countries. Addressing these
knowledge gaps will enable more effective work on Methodology
earthen housing by many actors, such as researchers,
Countries investigated
policymakers and standards bodies.
The most commonly quoted global estimate is that 1/ A ‘fat tail’ exists in the distribution of global population
3rd of the world’s population lives in earthen dwellings, over the number of countries – >75% of the world’s
with that figure rising to ∼50% for the population of population lives within just 26 countries (Figure 1).
developing countries (Houben & Guillaud, 1994). National demographic datasets offer an efficient way
These estimates were first given in 1983, and continue to assess a large proportion of the global population
to be regularly restated, often without indicating from a relatively small number of countries. The scope
whether the whole world or just the developing world of this study is therefore focussed on the 26 most popu-
is referred to (Rael, 2008). Other sources give worldwide lous countries. These countries span a range of income
values of around 50% or above (Agarwal, 1982; Avrami groups and stages of development (Table 1), and hence
& Guillaud, 2008). While the estimate from 1983 may provide the opportunity to make comparisons between
have been a representative ‘ballpark’ figure at the time, countries based on these attributes.
substantial changes in global demographics and housing This approach was used in order to obtain a balance
stock have taken place in the subsequent >35 years. The between assessing a substantial proportion of the global
use of the best available data to revise these values for population, whilst also limiting the scope to a feasible
the 21st century is long overdue. number of national datasets. It was also sought to
Figure 1. Individual and cumulative populations for the 26 most populous countries. 2020 population data from United Nations
(2019).
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 487
provide a balanced assessment for the world as whole, Census reports are published by countries’ statistics
rather than risk a positive selection bias by intentionally authorities, and data are typically presented by the num-
focussing on countries where earthen construction is ber of dwellings (rather than population). This was the
widespread and/or well-documented. It is acknowl- first preference of data source as it offers the most com-
edged that this sample of countries excludes several prehensive data with minimal subsequent processing.
countries (i.e. those in the remaining <25% of world Within the housing and health research area, census
population) in which earth construction is widely data has previously been used to analyse trends in hous-
adopted and/or very well documented (e.g. Mali, ing in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2015 (Tusting
Sudan, Yemen); at the same time, the sample also et al., 2019).
excludes many countries in which earth construction IPUMS is an open database which provides a sample of
is not widely adopted (e.g. Malaysia, Poland, Canada). census data (typically in the range of 10–15% of the popu-
lation), including for some countries whose census
reports are not readily accessible or available in English
Sources and limitations of national demographic
(Minnesota Population Center, 2019). However, the raw
data
census data are processed into universal categories and
Censuses and other national demographic datasets pro- so does not necessarily accurately represent the exact
vide valuable information but also present challenges. questions used in the original survey. It also sometimes
Census reports are not always publicly available, and are includes a conversion to numbers of people rather than
not always translated into English. To overcome the chal- numbers of dwellings. This was the second preference
lenges of limited access to census reports, three types of of data source when census reports were not accessible.
sources were used to provide national demographic data In the use of IPUMS data, it was assumed that the number
around housing materials and housing quality: of households and number of people are directly pro-
portional, so that values reported in terms of ‘proportion
1. Census reports of people living in earthen dwellings’ were equivalent to
2. IPUMS census data ‘proportion of households living in earthen dwellings’.
3. Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) question- Consequently, the latter term will be used throughout.
naire data Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data are
generated from household surveys undertaken every 5
A national census is the most wide-ranging and in- years, which include questions about housing character-
depth recording of data about a country’s population. istics and materials. They provide a snapshot of a
488 A. T. M. MARSH AND Y. KULSHRESHTHA
country, given that they collect data from a small sample Analysis methods
of the population. DHS data were used in a different way
The analysis of national demographic data is a novel
to the previous two sources, as described in the follow-
approach for interrogating the current state and his-
ing paragraphs.
torical trends of global earthen construction, which
These three source types have advantages and disad-
has not previously been used. Given that census ques-
vantages in terms of availability, comparability and
tions and response options are unique to each country,
transparency of data. To make best use of the data avail-
using census data presents challenges of making fair
able, the different source types were used for different
comparisons between different countries’ data. On
aspects of the analysis (Table 2). For comparing between
the other hand, a given country’s choice of questions
countries, the most recent census reports were used.
and response options itself provides information
When this was not accessible, the census data provided
about that country’s attitudes towards construction
by IPUMS was used as the best available substitute. For
materials. In order to identify common points of com-
countries for which either census data were not available,
parison and trends in countries’ surveys, a cascade of
or census data did not contain any data relevant to the
questions was used to assess how each census pre-
construction material of dwellings, other sources of
sented the relevant data (see Appendix A in Sup-
national or regional level data were obtained where poss-
plementary Information).
ible. For comparing trends over time, DHS surveys were
The following developmental indicators were also
used, along with the census and IPUMS data. Whilst
used to compare between countries:
DHS surveys only represent a small sample of each coun-
try’s population (typically <0.01% of the population),
. Human Development Index (HDI) – a compound
these have the advantages of being carried out at regular
measure of a country’s development (higher value
intervals, and having a set of questions which are com-
= higher degree of development) (UNDP, 2020).
mon across all countries and across years as the surveys
. Multidimensional Poverty Index (MDPI) – a com-
were carried out by a single organization. Historical
pound measure of a country’s poverty (higher value
population estimates from the United Nations World
= higher degree of poverty). Scores are only calcu-
Population Prospects (2019) were used to convert the
lated for countries outside of the highly developed
historical values for the proportion of population living
HDI grouping (UNDP, 2020).
in earthen dwellings into absolute numbers of people
. Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP) – an over-
(see Appendix B in Supplementary Information).
all measure of the average wealth of a country’s citi-
zens (The World Bank, 2020a).
Classification of earthen construction
For the purposes of this study, an earthen dwelling was Estimate of number of households living in
defined as a dwelling in which a majority of the external earthen dwellings
walls of the building are constructed using unfired earth
as a major component. This included wholly earthen In order to test the validity of widely-used estimates
wall construction (e.g. adobe blocks, rammed earth, about the proportion of the global population living
compressed earth blocks) as well as part-earthen wall in earthen dwellings, an approximate estimate was
construction (e.g. wattle and daub). Stabilized and made for these 26 countries. Depending on the avail-
unstabilized earth construction techniques were both ability of data for a given country, the following pro-
included. Flooring material was considered separately, cedures were used to make an estimate, in order of
as earthen floors have distinct functional requirements preference:
and risks compared to walls – this distinction is
explored in the section ‘Reduced prevalence of earthen 1. Use of census data.
housing and higher development – correlation or 2. Use of other national statistical data.
causation?’. 3. Estimation on the basis of partial or regional data in
research articles.
4. Estimation based on benchmark data available for
Table 2. Data sources used for different aspects of analysis.
comparable countries (in terms of region and devel-
Comparison between
countries Comparison within each country over time opment level)
Census reports Census reports
IPUMS census data IPUMS census data To aid sourcing of non-census data sources for the
DHS surveys
numbers of earthen housing and the availability of
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 489
Figure 2. Breakdown of how many countries census data provided relevant information to earth dwellings, grouped by Human Devel-
opment Index (HDI) group.
490 A. T. M. MARSH AND Y. KULSHRESHTHA
Table 3. Response options for countries which included earth as a survey option for construction material of dwellings.
Country Data source Earth response options Non-earth response options
India Census 2011 Mud/unburnt brick Grass/thatch/bamboo; plastic/polythene; wood; stone not packed with mortar;
stone packed with mortar; G.I./metal/asbestos sheets; burnt brick; concrete; any
other walling material
Pakistan Census 1998 Unbaked bricks/earth bound Baked bricks/blocks/stone; wood/bamboo; others
Brazil Census 2010 Rammed earth (without coat/plaster), Brick masonry (coated), Brick masonry (uncoated), Equipped wood, harnessed
rammed earth (with coat/plaster), wood. straw, other material (plastic etc)
Nigeria Census 2006 Mud/reed Wood/bamboo; stone; cement/blocks/bricks; metal/zinc sheet; other
Bangladesh Census 2011 Mud/un-burnt bricks Straw/Bamboo/Polythene/Plastic/Canvas, Tin (C.I Sheet), Wood, Brick/cement,
others
Mexico Census 2010 Adobe; Mud or Adobe Cardboard, scrap, and miscellaneous materials; Waste, scrap, or discarded material;
(IPUMS) Cardboard sheet; Wood; Reed, bamboo, or palm; Brick, block, stone, or cement;
Metal or asbestos sheet
Ethiopia Census 2007 Unburnt brick with mud; Mud or adobe; Wood; Bamboo or cane; Brick, block, stone, or cement; Brick with plaster exterior;
(IPUMS) Mud with wood/wattle Brick; Cemented stone; Metal or iron sheet; Others
Egypt Census 2017 Bricks or clay (i.e. earth) Red bricks or their alternatives and other ceils; red bricks or their alternatives and
concrete ceils; prefabricated materials; concrete ceils and pillars
Vietnam Census 2009 Wood and earth adobe; Netted bamboo Brick, stone, concrete; Concrete; Mixed material; Others
(IPUMS) or cane with mud;
Iran Census 2016 Adobe and wood; Adobe and clay Reinforced concrete; Brick and steel or stone and steel; Brick and wood or stone and
wood; Cement block (kinds of roof); All brick or stone and brick; All wood; others
Tanzania Census 2012 Poles and Mud; Sundried bricks; Stones; Cement bricks; Timber; Timber and Iron sheets; Grass; tent
South Census 2011 Cement and adobe bricks; Mud with Cardboard sheet; Plastic sheeting, cardboard; Wood, formica, and other; Wood or
Africa (IPUMS) wood/wattle bamboo; Grass, straw or reed; Bricks; Cement blocks; Asbestos; Metal or Iron
sheet; Others
Myanmar Census 2014 Earth Tiles; Concrete; bricks; Wood; Bamboo; Corrugated sheeting; Non-woody
vegetation
flooring was at least as widespread as earthen walling in demonstrated a high degree of similarity. In Brazil, a
each country (Figure 3). The exception to this is Mexico similar trend of earth construction mostly being in
– however, it only deviated by a small amount. rural areas was also seen, albeit this was much less
obvious given that for the country as a whole, the
majority of the population is urban (85.9%).
Rural–urban distribution of earthen dwellings
Several censuses made a distinction between dwellings
in rural and urban areas. However, only a small number Earthen construction and development status
included data for earthen dwellings as well as a rural– For the countries reporting data for earthen dwellings, a
urban breakdown. Within this sample (Figure 4), weak negative correlation was observed between HDI
earth construction was consistently more prevalent in and the proportion of earthen dwellings (Figure 5),
rural areas. The overall distributions within the South meaning that higher levels of development are associ-
Asian region (i.e. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) ated with a lower proportion of a country’s population
living in earthen dwellings. For MDPI, a weak positive
correlation was observed (Figure 6), meaning that
lower levels of poverty are associated with a lower pro-
portion of a country’s population living in earthen
dwellings. The overall narrative trend observed is
hence the same for both metrics. The clearest outlier
on both plots is Myanmar, which has a very low pro-
portion of households living in earthen dwellings
(0.2%) and a relatively low level of development (i.e.
low HDI and high MDPI scores).
Figure 3. The proportion of households living in dwellings with For some countries, comparable earthen data were avail-
earth floors and earth walls (for countries which provided both able for different time points (Figure 7(a)), which was
sets of data). then plotted against changes in each country’s wealth
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 491
Figure 4. The proportion of households living in earthen and non-earthen dwellings in urban and rural areas.
(using GDP per capita as an indicator) for the same years Current global prevalence of earth construction
(Figure 7(b)). A clear overall trend was observed between
The number of households living in earthen dwellings
increasing wealth and a decreasing proportion of the
was estimated for the 26 countries (together represent-
overall population living in earthen dwellings over recent
ing >75% of the world population), in order to interro-
decades. Despite differences in absolute values between
gate the validity of two widely used statements around
countries, the overall trend is common for all the
the global prevalence of earthen dwellings.
countries for which data were available.
The first widely used statement, that ‘one third of
Presentation of these values in terms of absolute
the world’s population lives in earthen dwellings’ is
population, rather than simply proportions, revealed
now shown to be a substantial overestimate. From esti-
more nuanced trends (Figure 8). With the exception
mates for the 26 countries, the real range is expected to
of South Africa, the populations living in earthen dwell-
be 8–10% (Figure 9(a)). Whilst this is a small pro-
ings in these countries have remained fairly constant
portion relative to the remainder of the population liv-
over time (India, Mexico), or have even undergone a
ing in non-earthen dwellings, earthen dwellings are
fairly modest increase (Bangladesh, Tanzania). In con-
nonetheless estimated to provide shelter for around
trast, all these countries underwent large increases in
650–700 million people worldwide. The second widely
the population living in non-earthen housing.
Figure 7. Changes in proportion of households living in earthen dwellings for India, Bangladesh, Mexico, Tanzania and South Africa
plotted against: (a) time, (b) GDP per capita (current USD$).
used statement, that ‘half of the population of develop- Availability of national standards for earthen
ing countries lives in earthen dwellings’ is also a sub- construction
stantial overestimate. Choosing here to classify
Whilst the census survey questions (Figure 2) indicated
developing countries as either low or medium HDI
attitudes towards earth construction and the importance
group, the real range is expected to be 20–25% (Figure
of construction materials in different countries’ surveys,
9(b)). Nonetheless, there is still a clear difference in
attitudes are also reflected by how well-developed
prevalence between the ‘Global North’ and the ‘Global
countries’ national standards are (Niroumand et al.,
South’ (Figure 10).
2017). Normative documents were excluded from con-
Despite the difficulties involved in some of these
sideration, due to their lesser influence relative to standards
estimates, the magnitude of uncertainties are relatively
and greater difficulty of finding. The most recent review of
small. This arises from the fact that quantitative data
national standards and normative documents for earth
exist for several of the world’s most populous
construction was given by Schroeder (2012). The relevant
countries, namely China (4.2%), India (28.2%), Paki-
national standards for the countries considered in this
stan (34.5%), Brazil (1.6%), Nigeria (36.6%), Bangla-
study are given in Table 4. Comparing the availability of
desh (16.7%) and Mexico (16.4%). This helps to
national standards with the HDI group (Figure 11), it
compensate for the higher levels of uncertainty in
can be seen that these are more widely available for the
other, less populous countries. Furthermore, many of
very high HDI countries compared to other groups.
the census datasets are now over 10 years old, and
there is a historical trend of much faster growth in
non-earthen housing stock relative to earthen housing Discussion
stock in some countries (Figure 8) – as a result these
Developing and highly developed countries have
estimates are likely to be an over-estimate. It is con-
different attitudes towards housing walling
sidered unlikely that the countries which make up
materials
the remaining <25% of the global population exhibit
a distribution which is substantially different from The divide in census survey questions between low,
that presented here. Given that the absolute numbers medium and high HDI countries (whose census surveys
of earthen housing have been relatively stable for did include questions about dwellings’ construction
some countries in recent decades (Figure 8), it may material) and very high HDI countries (whose census
well be that the earlier estimate of ∼33% may have surveys did not) was shown in Figure 2. In turn, this
been broadly accurate for a time period in the 20th reflects assumptions about which factors strongly influ-
century – perhaps the 1950s or 1960s. Nonetheless, it ence citizens’ quality of life. In less developed countries,
is concluded that these two widely used statements there is a wider palette (and level of quality) of the hous-
now over-estimate the proportion of earthen dwellings ing materials themselves, and hence housing materials
– they are out of date and therefore should no longer be are a strong indicator for the quality of life and econ-
used. omic status. Earthen materials in particular are
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 493
Figure 9. (a) The estimated proportion of households living in earthen dwellings in the 26 countries considered in this study, including
estimates of the uncertainty in estimates generated in this study. (b) A breakdown in HDI group of the estimated number of house-
holds living in earthen dwellings in the 26 countries considered in this study. Previous widely used estimates are marked in dashed
lines.
Anecdotal observations from local experts and et al., 2011). This is also expressed by a growing num-
other sources suggest that there is a growing interest ber of earth-based products and earth construction
in earthen construction in several of these countries companies (Leylavergne, 2012; Dachverband Lehm,
(e.g. France, U.K., U.S.A.). This interest is largely dri- 2021), and a growing stock (albeit still relatively
ven by the desire for sustainable housing with low small) of modern earthen buildings (Akermann
embodied carbon (Niroumand et al., 2017; Swan et al., 2011; Antoine & Carnevale, 2016). The
Figure 10. A global choropleth map for the prevalence of earthen dwellings in the countries considered in this study. The colour code
is based on the proportion of households living in earthen dwellings.
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 495
availability of standards for earth construction is still development for earthen construction (Swan et al.,
lacking in several very high HDI countries, but stan- 2011).
dards are still on average more widely available than In summary, in very high HDI countries, earth is
in the lower HDI group countries (Figure 11). Given viewed as perhaps a niche material, but not a ‘poor’
the importance of standards in enabling widespread material – because the quality of earthen buildings is
adoption, there are movements to accelerate their generally high. Hence, earth construction is viewed as
Figure 11. Availability of national earth construction standards and/or normative documents for countries in different HDI groups
(very high, high, medium, low).
496 A. T. M. MARSH AND Y. KULSHRESHTHA
a respectable and reliable construction material that can facilitate some disease vectors due to crumbling
provide a decent quality of life. A high-level finding of (Wiese et al., 2017), it is arguably earthen floors which
these observations from the national demographic are most directly involved in increasing risk factors,
data and standards is that attitudes towards earth con- including Visceral Leishmaniasis (Younis et al., 2020)
struction are not fixed and immutable. In less developed and Tungiasis (Wiese et al., 2017), and also attracting
countries the average quality of earthen dwellings is mosquitoes to enter (Wanzirah et al., 2015). Whilst
typically lower, which has informed the prevailing atti- occupants of earthen dwellings do suffer higher malarial
tudes. In highly developed countries, the much smaller risk, this is attributed to poor design and finished quality
number of earthen dwellings are of much higher quality, (e.g. open eaves which allow mosquitoes to enter) rather
and their adoption is supported by a greater availability than the earthen material itself (Ogoma et al., 2010;
of national standards (although this is still lacking over- Lindsay et al., 2002).
all). These arguments are based on the country-scale In developing countries, the typical preference of
data analysed in this article, which are highly useful upgrading building elements runs in the order of roof,
for obtaining a global perspective that is lacking in the walls and lastly, floor (Tusting et al., 2019). Walls rep-
existing literature. Nonetheless, future research using a resent the largest volume and typically most expensive
range of methods is needed to obtain a more granular element of a dwelling. The available data shows the
understanding of attitudes towards earthen dwellings prevalence of earthen floors is typically higher than
in different countries and the different sectors of their the prevalence of earthen walls (Figure 3). Therefore,
populations. How (and how quickly) prevailing negative it is arguable that policymakers and researchers should
attitudes towards earth construction in less developed prioritize the replacement of earth floors, along with
countries could be changed remains a matter for debate. low-cost design interventions such as closing eaves, to
protect from disease vectors (Wanzirah et al., 2015).
In highly developed countries, the arguments made
Reduced prevalence of earthen housing and
for earthen housing are the opposite –with an increasing
higher development – correlation or causation?
proportion of time spent indoors, the moisture buffer-
There is a weak correlation between the proportion of ing capacity and intangible aspects of earthen dwellings
earthen dwellings and HDI and MDPI scores, as make for healthier indoor environments (Mcgregor
shown in Figures 5 and 6 respectively. This correlation et al., 2016). This supports the argument that the pro-
appears much stronger if countries without a strong blem of poor quality earthen dwellings lies fundamen-
use of earth in traditional construction (e.g. Myanmar) tally in poor design and finishing of the structure and
are excluded. On initial inspection, a policymaker might materials and the surrounding environment, rather
conclude that the way to accelerate a country’s develop- than the fundamental nature of the material itself.
ment is to replace earthen housing stock with housing Therefore, housing policymakers should not assume
made of other materials as quickly as possible. However, the correlation between lower prevalence of earthen
correlation does not always mean causation – it is cru- dwellings and higher levels of development is entirely
cial to interrogate to what extent this trend is attribu- causative. Rather, focus should be on replacing or
table to the material itself, versus other factors of upgrading poor quality earthen dwellings, whilst not
housing design and the wider urban environment. ignoring the potential health benefits that high-quality
An argument can be made that the issue is not earth earthen dwellings can provide.
itself – but rather poor quality dwellings in general, and
the use of earth when built within a way that is detri-
A conceptual model for understanding the
mental to health outcomes. In a study in Sub-Saharan
relationship between earthen housing and
Africa, controlling for poverty and other known health
development
factors, the influence of ‘finished’ building materials
resulted in a reduction in odds of malaria, stunting The trends of countries’ earthen dwellings with develop-
and underweight of 0–5–year–olds (Tusting et al., ment (Figures 5 and 6) and wealth (Figure 7(b)),
2020). In comparison, the influence of ‘finished’ build- together with the attitudes reflected in surveys (Figure
ing materials had no association with diarrhoea, acute 2) and availability of standards (Table 4) altogether
respiratory infections, wasting or anaemia, which were suggest that countries’ attitudes towards, and adoption
improved by other aspects of higher quality housing of, earth construction changes with their position on
(i.e. drinking water and sanitation). Within this, the the development trajectory. Using the findings in this
role of the individual building elements needs to be study, a conceptual model is proposed which broadly
interrogated. Whilst poorly finished earthen walls can characterizes the trajectory of earthen dwellings by
BUILDING RESEARCH & INFORMATION 497
four phases, aligned with the HDI development group- production of more carbon-intensive construction
ings (Figure 12): materials. Conversely, the number of people who cur-
rently live in earthen dwellings can be considered as
1. Low HDI countries – from a starting point of high an emissions ‘time bomb’ – if and when they ‘upgrade’
prevalence, low-quality earthen construction is very to brick or concrete dwellings, this will collectively cause
common amongst the poor, and uncommon a large amount of emissions from the manufacture of
amongst the wealthy. those materials. Whilst earthen dwellings now make
2. Medium HDI countries – as the country grows up only a small proportion of buildings worldwide
richer, the proportion of earthen dwellings decreases (Figure 9) this is still a large absolute number. When
(although the absolute number may not actually scaled across hundreds of millions of households, the
decrease, or decrease by a smaller amount, due to prospect of upgrading dwellings presents a large poten-
population growth). Low-quality earthen dwellings tial source of carbon emissions which will make it more
are replaced with concrete or brick. Rural-urban challenging to meet the 1.5°C target (as well as the tar-
migration levels are high. gets of SDG 13). Through developing a more accurate,
3. High HDI countries – after the country’s housing up-to-date estimate of the extent and distribution of
stock is largely built and population growth starts earth construction around the world (Figure 9),
to decrease, the proportion of earthen dwellings researchers and policymakers will be better informed
remains low. Rural-urban migration levels are lower. to best support the upgrading of dwellings to maximize
4. Very high HDI countries – with low levels of popu- health benefits and minimize environmental costs.
lation growth and increasing amounts of wealth, The trends observed around earthen dwellings and
there is a renewed interest in building new earthen countries’ wealth (Figure 7(b)) suggest a ‘valley of
buildings of high quality. neglect’ for earthen dwellings in the medium and high
HDI stages of development. These stages typically
coincide with the period of highest demand for housing
A caveat to this model is that it only applies to due to increasing wealth, a growing population and
countries in which earth construction is a widely estab- rural-urban migration (Figure 12). Advocates of earth
lished part of vernacular architecture. Within the per- construction identify this as the window of opportunity
spective of construction in developing countries, it is where earthen dwellings can have the largest positive
crucial to assess the construction industry as entwined impact. Comparing the adoption trajectories with a
with the availability of resources, and also the socio- business-as-usual approach (Figure 13), successful
economic environments of that country (Ofori, 1994). adoption of high-quality earthen dwellings at the
Whilst the exact form and rate of these changes cannot
be tested with quantitative data (due to the lack of data
for highly developed countries previously described),
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tative way in which to evaluate earthen construction
for the range of countries across the development
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