This document contains information about different forecasting techniques including moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend projections, seasonality, and associative forecasting. It includes examples of sales data and calculations of errors for each forecasting method. Key metrics discussed are mean absolute deviation (MAD) and tracking signal (TS).
This document contains information about different forecasting techniques including moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend projections, seasonality, and associative forecasting. It includes examples of sales data and calculations of errors for each forecasting method. Key metrics discussed are mean absolute deviation (MAD) and tracking signal (TS).
This document contains information about different forecasting techniques including moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend projections, seasonality, and associative forecasting. It includes examples of sales data and calculations of errors for each forecasting method. Key metrics discussed are mean absolute deviation (MAD) and tracking signal (TS).
This document contains information about different forecasting techniques including moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend projections, seasonality, and associative forecasting. It includes examples of sales data and calculations of errors for each forecasting method. Key metrics discussed are mean absolute deviation (MAD) and tracking signal (TS).
MONTH DEMAND TREND, INCLUDING TREND, t At Ft Tt FITt JAN 10 10 FEB 12 MARCH 13 APR 16 MAY 19 JUNE 23 JUL 26 AUG Total
TREND PROJECTIONS: LEAST SQUARES METHOD
YEAR TIME PERIOD ELECTRICAL POWER DEMAND
x y X^2 xy 1999 1 74 2000 2 79 2001 3 80 2002 4 90 2003 5 105 2004 6 142 2005 7 122 Total
SEASONAL INDEX DEMAND AVERAGE AVERAGE SEASONAL FORECAST 2003-2005 MONTHLY INDEX MONTH 2003 2004 2005 JAN 80 85 105 FEB 70 85 85 MAR 80 93 82 APR 90 95 115 MAY 113 125 131 JUN 110 115 120 JUL 100 102 113 AUG 88 102 110 SEP 85 90 95 OCT 77 78 85 NOV 75 72 83 DEC 82 78 80 Total ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING
SALES, y PAYROLL, x X^2 xy
2.0 1 3.0 3 2.5 4 2.0 2 2.0 1 3.5 7
Standard Error of the Estimate
Sy,x =
r=
r^2 =
MONITORING AND CONTROLLING FORECASTS: TRACKING SIGNAL
