The document discusses the evolution of actuarial risk assessment tools for sexual offenders, including RRASOR, Static-99, and Static-99R. It compares the predictive ability of different tools and highlights factors like age, sample characteristics, and dynamic risk factors that impact recidivism rates. The assessment of risk should consider an individual's static, stable, and acute risk factors to determine the appropriate risk level and need for intervention.
The document discusses the evolution of actuarial risk assessment tools for sexual offenders, including RRASOR, Static-99, and Static-99R. It compares the predictive ability of different tools and highlights factors like age, sample characteristics, and dynamic risk factors that impact recidivism rates. The assessment of risk should consider an individual's static, stable, and acute risk factors to determine the appropriate risk level and need for intervention.
The document discusses the evolution of actuarial risk assessment tools for sexual offenders, including RRASOR, Static-99, and Static-99R. It compares the predictive ability of different tools and highlights factors like age, sample characteristics, and dynamic risk factors that impact recidivism rates. The assessment of risk should consider an individual's static, stable, and acute risk factors to determine the appropriate risk level and need for intervention.
The document discusses the evolution of actuarial risk assessment tools for sexual offenders, including RRASOR, Static-99, and Static-99R. It compares the predictive ability of different tools and highlights factors like age, sample characteristics, and dynamic risk factors that impact recidivism rates. The assessment of risk should consider an individual's static, stable, and acute risk factors to determine the appropriate risk level and need for intervention.
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Changes in Risk Assessment
RRASOR 1) Prior sexual charges or convictions
2) Victim gender
3) Age
4) Relationship to victim Static99 RRASOR plus 6 items
1. Prior sentencing dates
2. Noncontact offenses 3. Index nonsexual violence 4. Prior non-sexual violence 5. Stranger victim 6. Single Three Generations of Risk Assessment •Clinical Judgment
•Actuarial Assessment
•Actuarial Plus Dynamic
Approaches to Risk Assessment d Subjects Studies
Unstructured clinical .43 1,723 9
Structured professional judgment .41 844 5
Actuarial (sex) .70 14,160 55
(Hanson & Morton-Bourgon 2007) What Does Static99 Measure? Who Gets Caught Differential Disclosure Incest When Did Child Rarely Disclose Natural Parent
Immediately 17%
Later 30%
Never 55% Differential Disclosure
Abused and neglected children
Skillful offenders Decline in Crime 2008 Decline in Rape & Sexual Assault
1999-2008
53% Base Rates Matter
More Or Fewer Reoffenders for each score Multiple Norms Routine Sex Offenders (CSC)
Treatment Samples
Nonroutine Samples
High Risk Samples
Which Norms to Use Correctional Services of Canada Routine Cases N = 2406 No screening procedures No pre-selection for tx, or civil commitment Which Norms To Use? Preselected for Treatment
Referred for sex offender specific
treatment during current or prior incarceration
Selected but no beds still selected
Non-routine Treatment sample
High risk samples
Preselected for other reasons, e.g.,
offense severi Which Norms to Use High Risk Sample
Preselected for risk
Factors external to Static-99
SVP referral, mentally disordered, not
guilty by reason of insanity, referred for intensive treatment Norms “Most cases will use routine correctional sample” Scores Versus Recidivism Original Norms Score Risk Years 5 10 15
Dangerous Offenders- Indeterminate sentences Potential Dangerous Offenders Violent Offense after MR High Risk Sample Haag, 2005 All Canadian offenders released at MR
Knight and Thornton, 2007
Massachusetts Treatment Center- Assessed or treated between 1959 - 1984 Sexually dangerous persons High Risk Samples Nicholaichuk, 2001 Treated at Clearwater treatment program – maximum security forensic mental health facility
Wilson & colleagues
Detained in prison until MR Relative Risk vs Absolute Risk
Relative risk consistent across 22
samples
Absolute risk not consistent
Charges vs Convictions 13 samples used charges
15 used convictions Reconviction Vs. Rearrest Rearrest = 1.4 x reconviction
0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age-at-release from custody Age & Recidivism Reanalysis of Hanson All groups declined steadily
Own data – linear decrease with age
N = 468 (Barbaree et al., 2003) Fitted Sexual Recidivism Rates by Age Graphs 60
50
40 One SA 30 Two SA Three SA 20
10
0 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 Each one unit increase in age was associated with 98% of the recidivism rate of the previous (younger) age
Recidivism rate of 32-year-olds was
98% of recidivism rate of 31 year- olds Current age item did not adequately adjust for age
Could have left old item and “fitted a
complicated curvilinear age adjustment”
Decided instead to create a new age item
With New Age Item Age of release does not add significant incremental predictive validity
With old age item –
Age of release does add predictive validity
Meaning: New item adequately controls
for age Comparing Static-99 to Static-99R Validation Sample N = 2,392 ROC ROC 5 Years 10 Years Static-99 .713 .706 Static-99R .720 .710 New Age Item Age Score
18 – 34.9 1
35 – 39.9 0
40 – 59.9 -1
60 + -3 Score Range -3 to 12 Risk Categories Score Risk Category -3 through 1 Low 2,3 Low-Moderate 4,5 Moderate-High 6+ High Do Over-rides Help? Prediction of Recidivism (ROC) Recidivism Static-99 Static-99 + Static-99 + Type Over-ride Stable- 2007
Sexual .77 .75 .81
Any violent .74 .71 .77
Age 61
Attacked 73-year-old woman
Giving him a church tour
Stranger assault Mr. Johnson
Age Offense History
29 “Has a history of sexual
assault” 46 Attempted molestation of 11-year-old Mr. Johnson Age Offense History
48 Violent rape of 17-year-old
boy – beat with chain
58 Molestation 6 yr old boy
59.5 Exposure to officer
No High Risk Aging Sex Offenders? When to Over-ride? Recent Offense – within 5 years
History of continuous offending
No evidence of impact of aging
Static, Stable & Acute Static “Non-changeable life factors that relate to risk for sexual recidivism, generally historical in nature” Static, Stable & Acute Stable “Personality characteristics, skill deficits, and learned behaviours that relate to risk for sexual recidivism that may be changed through intervention
Acute “Risk factors of short or unstable
temporal duration that can change rapidly, generally as a result of environmental or intra-personal conditions” Static99R + Stable 2007 Static99R 3 Year Recidivism 5 Year Score Recidivism Stable = 5 Stable = 14 Routine High Risk 2 3% 7% 5% 12% 5 7% 18% 11% 25% 7 14% 32% 19% 38%
Personality Pathology of Adults With Autism Spectrum Disorder Without Accompanying Intellectual Impairment in Comparison To Adults With Personality Disorders.
Personality Pathology of Adults With Autism Spectrum Disorder Without Accompanying Intellectual Impairment in Comparison To Adults With Personality Disorders.
