Finland's Finance Minister Annika Saarikko's (Cen) first budget will be finalised this autumn, but it's a long process. First talks this week within the Finance Ministry will finalise the ministry's own view on what the state's income and expenditure should look like.
Then later in the autumn the government plans to reach specific decisions on employment and climate change action.
Smoking will get more expensive next year, assuming that the tax increase is passed on straight to consumers.
The increase will be 50 cents a pack next year, and the same again in 2023, with a pack of twenty coming in at around ten euros by 2024.
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That's one of the few certainties in this budget, as the government has agreed the increase already. The rest of the details on the Finance Ministry's proposal will become clear on Thursday and Friday, after two days of talks between officials at the ministry.
That is not the end of the matter, however. The parties in government then have to debate and adjust the proposal until the politicians are satisfied, which should take until late September.
Then the budget proceeds to parliament for a vote.
This story takes a look at some of the big issues to be decided during the budgeting process.
1. Petrol, alcohol and income taxes unlikely to rise
Next year the government is expected to avoid new alcohol taxes, as the government programme's planned alcohol tax increases have already been implemented. Saarikko's predecessor as Finance Minister Matti Vanhanen (Cen) said in May that increases in petrol taxes had also already been implemented for this electoral term.
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Rowing back on the statement would be politically difficult, especially for the Centre Party. The government has already announced cuts in subsidies for businesses using diesel from 2023, which could raise the cost of diesel for consumers by around one cent per litre.
The eventual impact of that change is difficult to predict, however, as global markets affect the diesel price.
It is expected that there will be no increases in income taxes, in line with recent years' practice.
2. Bigger deductions for household work
The budget proposal will include things that the government agreed in April. One of those is a temporary increased tax deduction for householders installing new equipment to replace an oil-powered heating system, due to be in force until 2027.
More specific decisions on deductions for other household expenses and care services are expected. Those will come under a two-year trial period.
3. Will there be changes to income-linked unemployment benefits or debt collection?
The government has said that by the end of the year it will decide on employment-boosting measures that should boost the public finances by some 110 million euros.
Finance Minister Saarikko has emphasised sticks rather than carrots as the unemployed are encouraged to get new jobs, to try and ease an expected labour shortage.
There is not yet consensus on this, with the left-wing parties in government opposing changes to Finland's income-linked unemployment benefit provision.
One change would be to set an earnings-based qualification requirement, so that people would have to earn 844 euros in each of the preceding six months to qualify. At present, people have to work at least 18 hours per week over 26 weeks, and be a member of an unemployment insurance fund.
Finance ministry number crunchers say that would nudge an additional 1,500 people into employment, saving several million euros a year in public spending.
White-collar trade union confederation STTK has criticised the model, saying that it favours higher-income workers over lower-income ones.
Another possibility is a change to the system for debt management to make it easier for heavily indebted people to enter a debt restructuring programme. At present compulsory salary deductions for debt repayment can make paid work unprofitable for some heavily-indebted individuals.
There were some 275,000 people in debt recovery proceedings last year. Research has shown debt recovery proceedings have a drastic effect on incentives to work.
Reforming the system is politically difficult, however, as the rights of lenders and holders of debt must be balanced against those of debtors.
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4. 100-150 million euros of new taxes on the way
In the spring, ministers agreed that tax revenues would have to rise by between 100 and 150 million euros from 2022. The details remained unspecified, and it is likely that the lion's share of the tax increases will come after next year.
One method would be to tax foreign investment funds' property investment profits. There is agreement within the government on this proposal, but it would be enacted in 2023 to ensure sufficient time to draft the law.
The government also has to reach an agreement on tax-free dividend payments to institutional investors.
The SDP wants to bring in a five percent tax on such payments to pension funds and mutual funds.
The tax would not, however, affect investments made by trade unions and charitable foundations.
Saarikko's proposal is unlikely to include the tax. A Finance Ministry working group found in June that a new tax would not work well with the current dividend taxation framework.
The government will also consider a crackdown on firms using debt to avoid taxation, which rose to prominence after a Finnwatch report on the electricity transmission firm Caruna and others.
Finnwatch said the legal tax avoidance schemes were worth tens of millions of euros to the electricity transmission firms.
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5. What about climate change?
The government's climate plans are also in the spotlight, with the Greens and Left Alliance particularly keen to see new decisions in the budget talks.
Green leader Maria Ohisalo has demanded emissions cuts from the agricultural sector, with peat fields and machinery emissions to be cut and crop management adjusted to better retain carbon in soils.
6. The income-debt balance
Economic growth and improving employment have been discussed all summer. The question now is whether improved growth will show in state revenues next year, and thereby reduce the need to take on new debt.
In the framework agreed this spring, the budget had a 7.6 billion euro deficit. That is slated to be covered by new debt.
7. Covid expenses
There are likely to be expenses related to Covid in 2022 as well. Testing and healthcare costs need to be covered, and the government has said it will cover them — but the numbers are expected to be lower.