The opposition National Coalition Party (NCP) topped the poll in Yle's first regional election survey. The party, which won the last municipal elections, received 21.8 percent of voter support in this latest survey.
The NCP's result is slightly better than in last summer's municipal elections, when the party scooped up 21.4 percent of the vote.
The results of the municipal elections are not directly comparable to the regional elections, because the residents of Helsinki also participated in the municipal elections, but will not in this election.
According to Research Director Tuomo Turja of polling research firm Taloustutkimus, the NCP has a good starting position for the January elections.
"In this survey, the party is clearly in first place and has loyal voters. The NCP is confident that they will maintain this level of support in the election, which cannot be said for all other parties," said Turja.
Regional elections will be held in January for the first time. Based on the survey, it looks like strong provincial parties, such as the Centre, will do well in the elections.
Social Democrats take strong second place
Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democratic Party (SDP) remains in second place in the poll, with 18.9 percent support.
The SDP says its candidate lists include a large number of healthcare staff.
In regional elections, decisions regarding social and health care are transferred from municipalities to wellbeing services counties. The administrative reform is huge, but in the eyes of the people it may still seem remote.
"This is a new election, and we are in somewhat uncharted waters. The SDP is a strong municipal party and support of just over 18 percent is by no means surprising. The party has strong backing regionally," said Turja.
Can the Finns Party engage their supporters?
The regional elections will mark the opposition Finns Party’s first election with new chair Riikka Purra at the helm. The party ranked third in the survey with 17.6 percent support.
Finns Party support in the last municipal election was 14.5 percent. The party's greatest problem was that many voters failed to show up at the polls on election day.
Now the party has more than 1,500 candidates on its lists and started campaigning before Christmas.
"It is very important for the Finns Party that they get their supporters mobilised. The support they have in the poll is good, but whether it will be realised is another matter," Turja said.
Election set-up reflected in the support for the Centre Party
In the regional elections, decision-makers are elected for 21 wellbeing services counties. Regional councils are responsible for social welfare, health care and rescue services.
In Helsinki, the city will continue to be responsible for its health and social services, so those who live in the capital will not vote in the elections. This weakens the position of the Green Party, who are popular in the capital region, and strengthens the position of the Centre Party, which has a stronghold in smaller towns.
In Yle’s first regional election survey, the Centre received 15.3 percent support, up from 14.9 in last summer’s municipal elections. In the last parliamentary elections, the Centre received 13.8 percent of the vote.
The Left Alliance edges past the Greens
The elections look to be a struggle for the Greens. This is reflected in the survey: the Left Alliance has edged past the Greens with 8.1 percent support.
Support for the Greens was at 7.6 percent. In last summer's municipal elections, the Greens received 10.6 percent of the vote.
"The fact that Helsinki is not participating in the regional elections will certainly be reflected in the result," Turja predicted.
Regional elections are still quite the conundrum for many citizens, who are likely to vote based on impressions a party has made on a national level.
"The voters are still a bit confused about what is being decided upon, and the campaigning has barely begun," said Turja.
Regional elections will be held on 23 January. Prior to election day, Yle will publish another regional election survey.