Speaking in an Yle Radio Finland interview, Lt Col Forsström fears the situation has all the makings of a military confrontation. The former defence attaché to the Finnish Embassy in Moscow regarded the unfolding situation with concern.
“Russia is clearly giving a very strong message that it is undergoing military preparations. It is of course a clear threat and strong signal to the government of Kiev. On the other hand, it is likely also a calming signal to some members of the government and population in Kiev,” says Forsström.
He feels the core issue is how the population of the Crimea responds to the latest developments. Slightly more than half hail from Russian backgrounds, while a fifth identify as Tatar, and the rest are Ukrainian. Some support Moscow, while others side with Kiev. For now, however, the streets are peaceful.
One possibility is a bid for Crimean independence
“The worst-case scenario is that the Crimean administration embarks on a strong drive for independence. In this case, Russia will feel it must protect its own installations and military bases and therefore assume a presence in the Crimea, in effect leading the development towards autonomy. On the other hand, it could turn into a skirmish between the Crimea and Kiev. Either way, Russia will protect its own interests, as the agreement regarding the military base requires.”
Forsström notes that although there is a clear danger that one spark could set off a powder keg; he doesn’t believe that the Ukrainian Coast Guard and the Russian’s Black Sea troops will clash.
“I believe that the threshold to open fire is very high on both sides. I do not see it as likely to happen. As a matter of fact, I see Ukraine’s choice to move its Coast Guard vessels out of the harbour as essentially a protectionist measure. In this way they are not vulnerable to marauding leagues or other groups that may wish to take them over. This way they will remain under the leadership of Kiev,” says Forsström.