Finland’s largest circulation daily Helsingin Sanomat examined the options for easing tensions between Ukraine’s fledgling interim government and Moscow. The paper interviewed a panel of experts who laid down a series of prescriptions for reconciliation between the two sides.
The recommendations include: taking Russia onboard in discussions to resolve differences between factions supporting and opposing the Moscow-backed premier in exile Victor Janocovich; introducing observers from the crisis-prevention body the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe; ensuring that any solution allows Russian president Vladimir Putin to come up smelling like a rose; ensuring that the Crimean peninsula remains Ukrainian territory, and taking steps to forge a real sense of nationhood among all groups in the country – a process that could take decades.
Implications for Finland
The Turku-based daily Turun Sanomat focused on the possible implications of the Ukrainian crisis for the Finnish economy. Experts interviewed by the daily dismissed the idea of a full-blown military conflict in the region, pointing out that such a development would be too costly for both sides.
Turku University’s Professor Kari Liuhto and Danske Bank economist Pasi Kuoppamäki said that the current standoff may have the effect of scaring off potential investors in Russia. “Russia’s image has suffered greatly from this. It needs western investors,” Liuhto stressed.
The analysts warned of fallout for Finland too. While Russian tourists will continue to travel to Finland, their ability to spend will likely decline, resulting in lower tourism income for Finland.
Kuoppamäki also pointed out that Finnish growth forecasts have been predicated on increasing exports. Since Russia is Finland’s largest trading partner (trade with Russia accounts for four percent of GDP), further slowing down in the Russian economy could hit the Finnish export sector where it hurts.
Taboids review unintended fallout from sanctions
The country’s main tabloid dailies Ilta Sanomat and Iltalehti both distributed print supplements devoted to breaking down the crisis and its potential repercussions.
Ilta Sanomat argued against the effectiveness of proposed economic sanctions against Russia, offering a freeze on the assets of Russian oligarchs as a more effective and targeted strategy. The paper points out that economic sanctions would also spill over to punish international companies doing business in Russia.
Since Finland has considerable business interests in Russia, sanctions affecting sectors like construction would be disastrous for Finland. Moreover according to emeritus professor Tauno Tiusanen, it’s worth remembering that Europe depends on Moscow for energy. If sanctions are applied, Russia could turn off its gas pipelines, leaving Europe literally powerless to retaliate.
Iltalehti meanwhile looks at specific Finnish business interests in Russia that could be affected by an escalation of a crisis involving Russia and the west. Companies such as Nokian Tyres, Fortum, Stockmann and the construction company YIT all rely heavily on Russia. In the case of Nokian Tyres, 34 percent of its turnover comes from Russia, in the case of Fortum, the figure is 25 percent, and 15 and 27 percent for Stockmann and YIT respectively.