This latest poll, conducted in December, indicated that 22.7 percent of Finnish respondents supported the SDP, while support for the election-winning Centre Party has fallen to 21.4 percent. This 1.3 percent difference is still within the poll’s 1.8 margin of error, however.
The popularity of the Social Democratic Party has risen from last summer’s reading of less than 15 percent to over 20 percent. The rise of the SDP seemed to lose some momentum in November, but in December support rose again by 1.7 percentage points.
Since its April election result of 16.5 percent, the SDP has seen an over six percent increase in support.
Last #1 in 2008
According to the pollster Taloustutkimus, the last time the Social Democrats were the most popular party in Finland was in May 2008, when the party was in the midst of a fight for party leadership, after the then party chair Eero Heinäluoma voluntarily stepped down.
Under Jutta Urpilainen, who won the chair’s position in June 2008, the SDP was never at the forefront.
Antti Rinne, who took over the party reins from Urpilainen in May 2014 in an upset victory, says he is pleased with the party’s good standing as the year comes to a close.
“Well, it looks as if the SDP parliamentary group has done good work in parliament. We have been successful in offering citizens an alternative to the coalition’s politics; at least this is what the regained trust says to me. At this juncture, we simply have to listen to the people and maintain the utmost humility,” Rinne said.
Centre and NCP at election levels
The prime minister’s Centre Party has seen a slight decline in support this autumn, but has still maintained 21.1 percent support in Yle’s December poll, slightly above its April election numbers.
The National Coalition Party has also kept its election support levels, with support for the NCP actually picking up some ground in December, proving the fuss over party chair Alexander Stubb’s figures flub on the parliamentary floor in late November did not put much of a dent in how the centre-right party was holding out.
Finns Party freefall ends
The collapse in approval of the populist Finns Party this autumn appears to have hit a plateau in December, with numbers staying stable at around nine percent.
According to polls, the party lost over half of its support since the April elections, but party chair Timo Soini can perhaps now take comfort that the freefall appears to have to leveled out.
Research Director Jari Pajunen of the Taloustutkimus polling agency says that in general, it seems as if the parties have now fallen into their post-election positions. He says Finns Party numbers are not likely to get any lower.
"They have reached their rock-hard, solid base now," he says.
Greens and Left Alliance lose ground
The high levels of support the opposition Green Party enjoyed all autumn took a slight blow in December’s poll, but their 12 percent approval is still a great improvement on their 8.5 percent haul in the spring elections.
Support for the Left Alliance has fluctuated between seven and eight percent since their disappointing election result, but this number fell back to election levels in the December poll.
Among the smallest political parties, the Swedish People’s Party support shrank to under four percent, and the Christian Democrat’s popularity also diminished slightly.
Support for parties without parliamentary representation rose to exactly two percent, cumulatively.
Taloustutkimus interviewed a total of 1,952 people for the December poll, 66.6 percent of whom agreed to reveal their political party affiliation. The poll was conducted between December 7 and 29, 2015, and the margin of error is 1.8 percentage points in either direction.