Jussi Niinistö, Finnish Defence Minister, was a guest on Yle’s Ykkösaamu show Saturday morning, responding to several timely topics. First, he was asked his views on the growing animosity between the US and Russia. Specifically, he was asked if he agreed with Germany's Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier's October 8 statement that rising East-West tensions had surpassed Cold War levels.
“Steinmeier probably meant that the situation is in many ways unpredictable. During the Cold War, some kind of horrible détente kept things in balance, but now the situation is exceptional in that Russia is acting in a completely unpredictable manner. They shocked the entire world with their invasion of Crimea, for example, and the resulting crisis in Eastern Ukraine with its hybrid war,” he said.
He said that Russia becoming involved in the Syrian civil war is part of the same campaign to reassert Russian might.
“Russia is trying to stake out its place on the world map and regain respect. It thinks fear will instil this respect. […] Now that it is participating in the Syrian war, it indicates that Russia is pursuing the superpower position that it indisputably held during the Cold War. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the Cold War has returned, but there are certainly clouds in the sky that resemble parts of the Cold War conflict,” Finland’s Defence Minister said.
Loose talk and the risk of war
Niinistö said there is a possibility that the East-West conflict would escalate.
“On the rhetorical level, there is reason for concern because of the casual references to nuclear weapon arsenals, for one thing. During the Cold War, everyone was far more cautious in their use of nuclear references in their communication,” he said.
The Defence Minister also commented on the possible repercussions of the two countries’ involvement in the five-year Syrian civil war. Could it lead to war between the two former superpowers?
“I don't believe that the US and Russia would embark on open war because of huge risks, but they could engage in a proxy war via their allies and end up in conflict,” Niinistö said.
No word on the airspace incursions
Niinistö said that he had not learned anything new about Russia’s recent airspace violations from the Foreign Ministry after their meeting last week with the Russian ambassador to Finland. He suspects the meeting to cross-examine the ambassador must have come up dry.
“Or they didn’t consider it necessary to tell me about it,” he said. “Apparently, it didn’t yield any new information.”
Two Russian SU-27 fighter planes are suspected of violating Finnish airspace south of Porvoo on two separate occasions on October 6. Despite photos taken by the Finnish Air Force of the offending planes, Russian officials deny any involvement.
A good show of readiness
Niinistö said that Finland had already stepped up its defence readiness before the Russian jet fighter’s airspace violation, due to the increased air traffic from massive Russian flight tactic exercises taking place over the Baltic Sea. He said the incident proved that the Finnish Air Force is well prepared and can respond immediately to various situations.
He doesn’t believe that there is a link between Russia’s airspace violations and the fact that Finland and the US were set to sign a declaration of intent to enhance their defence cooperation the very next day.
After a preliminary investigation, the Finnish Foreign Ministry officials said two days ago that the Russian fighter jets’ airspace incursions may be part of a broader propaganda effort by Russia. The bilateral pact between the US and Finland was signed as planned on October 7.