A study by the Etla Economic Research Institute estimates that immigration should almost triple in order to stabilize the number of working-age people in Finland. This would mean net migration of about 44,000 persons per year.
According to the report, a higher level of immigration would have a significant positive impact on economic growth and, above all, on the sustainability of public finances.
Before the start of the war in Ukraine, Finland's net migration was around 15,000 people annually, according to Statistics Finland figures.
"Most immigration is so-called work-based immigration," Etla CEO Aki Kangasharju pointed out to news agency STT.
The Etla report, published on Friday, examines the economic effects of work-based immigration and how immigration can compensate for the effects of Finland's aging population structure.
If immigration continues at previous levels, the working-age population will shrink by almost a fifth by 2070, the report states.
"The biggest problems are related to the financing of the welfare society. The fall in the number of employed persons reduces income from taxes and public fees at the same time as the increase in life expectancy boosts the costs of health treatment and care services," it says.
Etla does not see an increase in the birth rate as a realistic solution to the growing imbalance.
Finns Party wants focus on employing existing immigrants
The current government has set a goal boosting the number of work-related immigrants to 50,000 by 2030.
The opposition Finns Party, on the other hand, believes that the workforce already in Finland should be better employed. In its recent immigration policy programme, the party states that, as a general rule, Finland should not allow work-based immigration from outside the EU, unless these immigrants are highly educated persons bringing valued-added skills to the workplace.
"If a person applies for a work permit in Finland, a prerequisite in the future for the permit must be earnings equivalent to the median salary in Finland," the Finns Party policy programme says.
Recent comments on immigration by Finns Party chair Riikka Purra drew sharp criticism from business leaders.
The criticism was levelled in particular at a statement made by Purra on Twitter, where she wrote, "The claims made about labour immigration are bluffs, because Finland hardly ever gets immigration that is economically beneficial, but receives a lot of immigration that is economically detrimental."
Less educated also spur growth
Etla points out that its calculations required many assumptions related, for example, to immigrants' educational levesl and their use of social services. This means that the economic results must be considered as approximate.
The study states that the impact of immigrants with low levels of education on the public economy is less positive than that of highly-educated ones. This is because the former group tends to benefit more from public programmes than they generate in tax revenues.
On the other hand, the report says that low-skilled immigration is also beneficial for economic growth, because it enables services to function and the general population to better target jobs that match their education.