Alexander Stubb is in one sense a grandee of his National Coalition Party — a former Prime Minister and party leader who has the stature many expect of a presidential candidate.
In another sense his arrival back in Finland after a spell in academia, as an urbane, pro-European liberal, was another chapter in the internal struggles within that party.
Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen (NCP) had announced he was considering running against Stubb for the NCP nomination, once the former MEP turned professor emerged as the frontrunner.
Häkkänen said this was due to a groundswell of support from more conservative elements within the party, and the move showed Stubb's strength and weakness in the race: he is a socially liberal politician heading up a campaign relying on conservative support.
In that sense he is well-positioned to form the kind of coalition that tends to win presidential elections, and he is the bookies' favourite to win. But he faces pressure from some strands of opinion he doesn't quite share.
This is part of a series of profiles on candidates in the presidential election. Our really simple guide provides some essential information about the race to become Finland's next president.
Quick ascent
Stubb’s political rise came quickly. Disgraced politician Ilkka Kanerva’s political demise was Stubb's ticket to promotion in 2008, when the then-foreign minister Kanerva was dumped by the NCP over a series of explicit text messages to an exotic dancer. Stubb, then an MEP, was called home from Brussels to replace Kanerva, even though he was not, at that point, a Finnish MP.
A passionate europhile, he then went on to serve as Minister for European Affairs and Trade from 2011, becoming Prime Minister in 2014. Managing a fractious, ideologically disparate six-party coalition was a tough task, but perhaps good preparation for the conciliatory figurehead aspects of the presidential role.
He lost the prime minister's office when his party came second in the election in 2015, switching to the finance minister's portfolio.
The ignominy was compounded the following year when he was also ditched as NCP party leader, defeated in a vote at party congress by his old friend, Petteri Orpo, who's now prime minister.
Stubb left the Finnish parliament two years later in order to serve as a vice-president of the European Investment Bank (EIB).
He went on to chair the board of Martti Ahtisaari’s Crisis Management Initiative, an international peace and conflict resolution NGO.
In 2018 he ran for the EU Commission presidency, aiming to become the Spitzenkandidat for the European People’s Party. He lost the nomination to German politician Manfred Weber, and opted not to run for election to return to Brussels as an MEP.
Instead he returned to his academic roots, taking on the role of Director of the Florence School of Transnational Governance in May of 2020. Shuttling between Tuscany and his home in Espoo, he has occasionally commented in the media on international affairs but has stayed out of domestic politics.
Aside from Pekka Haavisto, 55-year old Stubb is the only other candidate in the race with a foreign-born spouse. His wife, Suzanne Innes-Stubb, is a dual Finnish-British lawyer. The couple have two young adult children.
“When the fatherland calls, you go”
Stubb says his decision to rejoin the political fray is founded in concern over Russia's attack on Ukraine.
"I can say, hand on heart, that consideration of the presidential candidacy was not relevant before the war started,” he said when declaring his candidacy in August. "In this global political situation, the response is clear. When the fatherland calls, you go."
Over the years Stubb has sought to carve a unique place for himself when it comes to Russian relations — with varying results.
In a recent interview with tabloid Ilta-Sanomat he revealed that in the war’s early days he sent a text message to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urging him to "stop this madness."
Back in 2014 he faced intense criticism from the Green Party, who split from the coalition government after its in-principle decision to allow the construction of a nuclear power plant in partnership with Russian state-owned power firm Rosatom. Then prime minister, Stubb characterised the criticism as "Russophobic".
Eventually Stubb conceded in 2022 that including Rosatom in the nuclear power project was one of his biggest mistakes in office.
The centre-right candidate has also expressed concern about developments on Finland’s domestic scene, with his stump speech emphasising the importance of freedom of the press and a respectful public discussion culture.
Gifs and gaffes
Alexander Stubb's passion for networking and social media have often propelled him into the headlines.
In 2018 he took top spot in European Politico magazine’s “7 most regrettable tweets” of the year, his trademark grin coming back to bite him when he tweeted a picture of himself with "old friend and colleague" Sergei Lavrov. The cheerful post was widely circulated when Russia fired on Ukrainian ships off the coast of Crimea a few days later.
Among other things, Stubb has also been lambasted by the press for fist bumping fellow government leaders after agreeing widespread pay cuts, getting his percentages wrong, appearing at the Duudsons theme park as a human dartboard and wearing shorts.
Brand-recognition for the win?
Despite frequently being ridiculed over his love of the limelight, it could be argued that Stubb has achieved a level of visibility and "brand recognition" that may be the envy of other candidates.
Undeniably energetic, he has a long track-record on the conservative side of politics and is relying on this to market himself as a strong, new era candidate in a world of realpolitik.
In the lead up to the vote, Stubb has been a consistent frontrunner, with the former Prime Minister overtaking independent candidate Pekka Haavisto (currently a Green Party MP) to claim top spot in the latest election polls.
27.1. Correction: Stubb was a vice-president, not the president of the EIB.
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