Finland is committed to climate action and has marketed itself as a pioneer in climate policy. However, according to the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), the country’s commitment to becoming carbon neutral by 2035 is slipping out of reach.
The main reason is that the nation's forests are being cut down at such a rate that they will not bind climate-warming carbon dioxide sufficiently to reach the goal.
According to a new estimate, the land use sector may remain a sizeable source of emissions in 2035. It includes agriculture, forestry and other land use. Meanwhile, emissions may still rise from the current level. Researchers say that more means of reducing emissions are needed to close the gap.
Those trends are undermining the carbon neutrality commitment enshrined in the Climate Act of 2022, passed by the previous centre-left government led by ex-PM Sanna Marin (SDP). Achieving a net sink would require that forests absorb emissions in 2035 at a rate that corresponds to almost half of all current emissions in Finland.
Forests won’t bind more than they do now
According to a new assessment by Luke, the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by forests will instead remain at about one-fifth of what it should be. At the same time, there are no signs of a sufficient turnaround in soil emissions from agriculture.
In terms of Finland's 2035 goal of carbon neutrality, the land use sector is a net source of emissions, not a sink that binds carbon. Luke's assessment takes into account the latest statistical developments.
The forest sink is expected to remain close to its current level in 2035, due to heavy logging and the end of Russian imports in 2022, a response to its invasion of Ukraine. The calculation assumes an increase forest growth due to increased fertilisation.
Luke's calculation is the first update on the status of agriculture and the net sink of forests, based on the means planned by the previous government in order to strengthen the sinks.
The calculation also considers the foreseeable wood demand for the forest industry’s mills and planned investments.
"It is quite clear that the climate goal cannot be achieved, because they rely on an significant sink from the land use sector. Most of the change is due to the increase in demand for wood, and the rest is due to higher emissions from peatland forests," said Juha Mikola, a research manager at Luke.
"Serious, difficult situation"
The new estimate reveals a major gap between the 2035 target for land use and projected emissions trends.
The carbon neutrality goal depends on climate emissions being reduced by at least half of the current level by 2035. The biggest challenges are in reducing transport emissions, Luke says. These measures must be significantly intensified if the land-use sinks fail, as indicated by its calculations.
"This is a serious, difficult situation. There is enough research information, and the [lack of] adoption of the right solutions is not due to insufficient information," said Luke Research Professor Raisa Mäkipää.
Finland lags behind EU in carbon sinks
Based on statistical data from 2021, Finland was the furthest behind the EU's 2030 sink goals, along with Germany and Poland. Considering data from 2022, Finland's situation has weakened further.
"If the emissions of wood-using industry and energy production were monitored, it would create an incentive to recover carbon dioxide, at least if that would mean avoiding emissions penalties," suggested Mäkipää.
In addition to the forest industry, climate emissions are released from peat fields. According to Kristiina Lång, a research professor at Luke, the resulting emissions could be tackled by establishing climate wetlands. It is the only means of agriculture for which seed funding exists.
"This would be the most cost-effective method. Its effectiveness is based on the fact that the peat field is removed from cultivation," she explained.
According to Lång, taking 20,000 hectares of peatland out of use would not undermine Finland’s food production, but it would significantly reduce emissions.
Agriculture emissions reversal won’t help, if it even happens
In its update, Luke notes that the measures planned a few years ago to cut emissions and strengthen the sink are working and partially reducing emissions. However, the current government has removed subsidies that encourage action on wetland cultivation and afforestation of peat fields.
In addition, a proposed land use fee designed to prevent deforestation remains up in the air, as the government has no plans to prepare a bill on the issue.
According to the latest Luke analysis, the forest carbon sink will remain at a historically low level for the next decade. Its calculations assume that emissions from agriculture will be reduced by about a quarter thanks to improved methods. Despite that, though, the net sink of the land use sector will fall from the current level.
The assessment does not take into account how the nature conservation goals approved by the EU and Finland will affect the supply of wood and logging opportunities. Such measures are expected to limit felling areas available to supply industrial consumption.
According to the new Luke study, reducing logging would increase the sink quickly, and with a long-term effect.
In an Yle interview on 13 January, Minister of Climate and the Environment Kai Mykkänen (NCP) insisted that government plans to push toward the carbon neutrality goal.
The programme of the government led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP), published last summer, calls for bolstering carbon sinks. However, the government has announced that it will not update the climate plan for the land use sector in the next few years, despite the changed conditions and calls to do so from many sides, including a panel set up by the government to evaluate its economic policies.
The panel pointed out that reduced carbon sink could be costly for taxpayers. Luke estimated in December that EU penalties could be as much as seven billion euros, for instance.
The Finnish Climate Change Panel estimates that the need for net sinks might be somewhat lower, thanks to faster emission reductions in energy use.
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