The actual voting day for the European elections in Finland is June 9. This time, 15 MEPs will be elected from Finland to the European Parliament.
A recent party poll predicts success for Finland’s main governing NCP in June’s European elections. The poll result suggests that the NCP would hold onto its three MEP seats and possibly pick up a fourth. This time, voters in Finland will elect 15 MEPs, one more than in the last election.
According to the barometer, the NCP would once again be Finland's largest EU party with 22 percent support. The premier’s party is a member of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) bloc in the EU legislature.
The opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Finns Party, part of PM Petteri Orpo's coalition government, would be well behind in second and third places with support of 17 and 14 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, the opposition Greens, who came in second in Finland’s last European elections, are at risk of losing seats.
The survey, obtained by Yle, was carried out at the request of the parties by the research company Verian at the end of March. As part of a larger survey commissioned by the parties, respondents were asked which party or group representative they would vote for if the European elections were held now. According to Verian, this is an indicative estimate.
In addition to the parliamentary parties, a number of small parties are nominating candidates for the European elections.
Roughly converted into MEP seats, the result would mean that the NCP would keep its three MEP seats while aiming for a fourth. Each party must gain more than six percent support per MEP seat.
The NCP has traditionally done well in the European elections, as its actively voting supporters go to the polls even in the European elections, where the voter turnout generally tends to be weak. According to the survey, 65 percent of the NCP supporters definitely plan to vote this time.
Based on the survey results, the SDP would improve on its 14.6 percent result in the last European elections, rising to 17 percent support this time. With that result, the party would retain its two seats and perhaps gain a third.
According to the barometer, half of SDP supporters are sure they will vote.
Based on the survey, the Finns Party and the Centre, would probably keep their two seats each.
The problem for the Finns Party is low voter turnout among its supporters. That explains why the rise of right-wing populists, which has been widely predicted elsewhere in Europe, is not reflected in this Finnish party barometer. Only 39 percent of Finns Party supporters polled said they would definitely vote, compared to 54 percent of Centre backers.
Difficult election for the Greens
The poll suggests that the Greens, who achieved their best result ever with 16 percent support in the last election, will drop to 11 percent and be in danger of losing even two of their current three MEP seats. Six out of 10 Green supporters definitely plan to vote.
The Swedish People’s Party is also in danger of losing its sole seat in the European Parliament, despite the candidacy of outgoing party leader Anna-Maja Henriksson. The party does, however, enjoy high turnout, with 69 percent of supporters intending to vote this time.
The Left Alliance is set to gather nine percent support, keeping its single seat. Like the Greens, 60 percent of Left supporters say they are certain to vote.
According to the survey, the election alliance of the Christian Democrats and Movement Now (Liike Nyt) will have a hard time capturing a seat. Their combined support is around six percent.
In June's European elections, Finland will gain one more seat in the European Parliament for a total of 15.
The party barometer was carried out at the end of March, when nearly 1,400 adults were interviewed. The margin of error is estimated at 2.6 percentage points in each direction.
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