Nearly two-thirds of people in Finland who took part in a survey support the government's proposed so-called deportation law, according to newspaper group Uutissuomalainen.
Prompted by suspected instrumentalised migration orchestrated by Russia, the proposed legislation aims to prevent people attempting to cross the eastern border from seeking asylum.
The newspaper group's survey found 62 percent of respondents in favour of passing the law, and 17 percent against it. Meanwhile, 21 percent did not take a position on the issue.
The survey found men more likely to support the legislation than women, while younger people were more critical of the bill than older respondents.
Uutissuomalainen's survey was carried out by polling firm Tietoykkönen, querying around 1,000 people in Finland between 11-18 June. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points in either direction.
Criticism and support
Apart from the government, supporters of the bill include President Alexander Stubb, who on Wednesday said that reopening Finland's land border with Russia hinges on passing the law.
The country's eastern border has been shut down since December 2023, due to an influx of undocumented migrants, which Finnish officials have attributed to a hybrid influence strategy coordinated by Russia.
Some legal experts have said the deportation law would breach Finland's international obligations on non-refoulement, meaning the return of individuals to a country where there is a real risk they may be subjected to human rights violations.
There have been several calls for Finland to reject the legislation, including from the UN's human rights agency UNHCR, the Council of Europe's human rights commissioner, as well as professors and writers.
For the exceptional law to pass in Parliament, it needs the support of five-sixths of MPs — at least 167 out of 200 — and would be in force for a one-year period.
MPs are expected to vote on the bill's fate before Parliament begins its summer break in July.
Concerns and uncertainties
MP Tytti Tuppurainen, who chairs the opposition Social Democrats parliamentary group, told Yle TV1's discussion show A-studio on Wednesday night that there has been a good deal of discussion about the proposed law within the party.
Parliament's Administration Committee is currently reviewing the bill.
Tuppurainen said that the committee needs to minimise risks of the legislation violating international agreements. If that does not happen, the bill would not necessarily receive support from the SDP.
Her party has insisted that the legislation needs to be reviewed again by the Parliamentary Constitutional Law Committee after the Administration Committee makes eventual amendments to it.
The Constitutional Law Committee approved the proposed legislation, with some caveats, and the decision was not unanimous. The matter was approved by a vote of 15–2, with opposition Green and Left Alliance committee members voting against it.
The Greens and Left Alliance, who hold a total of 24 seats in Parliament, have a generally negative view of the proposed law, while it is thought that the SDP could play a decisive role in whether the legislation is approved.
SDP could play pivotal role
Earlier this week, Yle carried out a straw poll of SDP MPs about the matter, with a total of 28 of its 43 parliamentarians responding.
Two SDP MPs said they thought it was unlikely that they would vote in favour of the legislation, while another voiced scepticism about the law. Another Social Democrat MP expressed plans to vote against the bill.
The law would not pass if nine SDP parliament members vote no, assuming that 199 MPs are present during the vote and that all of the representatives belonging to the four government parties vote 'yes'.
While the coalition government holds a majority of seats in Parliament, it remains unclear whether every member of its four parties will vote to approve the bill.
The youth wing of the Swedish People's Party is against the deportation law, according to Yle's Swedish-language news unit. The SPP's parliamentary group chair Otto Andersson said last week that the party's MPs were free to vote on the matter as they choose.
The unit asked all youth parties about their position about the proposed law, and found only two — the NCP and Finns Party, which are in the government — were in favour of it.
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