With a military solution to the war in Ukraine – or actual peace – still far away, therefore there is now speculation about other options to end the war, ex-president Sauli Niinistö said in an interview with Yle published on Saturday.
Niinistö stepped down as president on 1 March after a 12-year term. At the request of the European Union, he is currently drafting a report on how to improve crisis preparedness.
In recent weeks, there have been calls for Ukraine to receive Nato security and membership in the territories that are under its control. The stated aim would be to bring the war to an end, even if Russia still occupies part of Ukraine's territory.
"If such a line were to be drawn, it would create a permanent, tense situation for a long time," Niinistö predicted.
Fighting might resume, pitting Russia and Nato directly against each other along the border, which could lead to an escalation, Niinistö said. He also expressed uncertainty as to whether such a solution would satisfy Ukraine at this stage.
German or Korean model?
Some western countries are now seeking a way for Ukraine to join Nato.
For example, Jens Stoltenberg, who stepped down as Nato Secretary General at the beginning of October, suggested Ukraine's accession to Nato in the same way that West Germany was once a member of the alliance, even though East Germany was not.
The division of South and North Korea has also been raised as a possible model for Ukraine.
Niinistö noted that such solutions tend to cement the status quo for long time. He pointed out that under Nato rules, a country that is at war cannot be accepted as a member.
"Russia is focusing on increasing its military power"
There is intensified discussion of possible endgames for the war as another winter looms ahead and the US presidential election creates uncertainty about continued support for Kyiv.
Nato countries, including Finland, have pledged to support Ukraine for as long as necessary.
"The support from the West has been massive. But right now it looks like it won't last forever, even if there is a wish to do so. Support resources are getting thinner," Niinistö observed.
"The West was really not very well prepared," he added, pointing to its slowness in replenishing military supplies.
Meanwhile, the situation in Russia is different. Even though it is using and losing enormous amounts of weapons and materiel on the Ukrainian front, it may be producing new equipment at an even faster pace.
"Possibly so. That is a clear sign that Russia is now focusing on increasing its military power," Niinistö replied.