Ukraine's energy shortage may increase the number of Ukrainians seeking temporary protection in Finland this winter, according to the Finnish Immigration Service (Migri). However, the agency says that it is difficult to predict the situation.
"Last winter, we also predicted that the number of Ukrainians arriving in Finland during the winter would increase, but in the end there was no significant increase in the number," said Minna Serradj, Regional Head of the Asylum Unit at Migri.
Tarja Fernández, who took over as Finland's ambassador to Kyiv in September, does not expect a large flow of people fleeing the country in the coming months. She believes that most of those in Ukraine now plan to stay in the country despite the difficult winter.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Ukraine has lost more than two thirds of its electricity production capacity as a result of the Russian attack.
The organisation warned in September that the upcoming winter will be the most difficult for Ukraine's energy supply since Russia launched its large-scale attack on the country in early 2022.
"No sense of panic"
Ukraine’s central bank estimates that about 400,000 people will leave the country this year. According to the Kyiv Independent, the main reason for leaving is the difficult energy situation.
At the moment, Ukraine is seeking solutions to get through the winter with help from the international community.
"Without international support, Ukraine will not survive the problems caused by the destruction of Russia's energy infrastructure. International aid gives Ukrainians confidence that they can make it through the winter," said Fernández.
In her view, the difficult winter ahead will certainly influence some people's decision to leave.
"However, the feeling, at least here in Kyiv, is that those who were planning to leave have already done so. I have asked local employees of the embassy, and none of them currently knows anyone who is planning to leave Ukraine because of the war."
Fernández emphasises that there are regional differences within Ukraine: while the situation along the frontline in eastern Ukraine is bad, conditions in Kyiv and western Ukraine are slightly better in terms of energy supplies.
While the largest peak of emigration has already taken place, smaller-scale internal migration is still taking place, the ambassador said.
"People don't necessarily go very far; they may move a few towns away and wait until they can return to their home region. Despite the electricity shortage and the coming difficult winter, there is no sense of panic here," she told the news agency STT.
Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression in February 2022, more than six million Ukrainians have fled to other European countries. Ukraine’s pre-war population was nearly 44 million.
75,000 Ukrainians in Finland, attitudes hardening
According to Migri, around 10,000 Ukrainians arrived in Finland during the first nine months of this year. The agency estimates that up to 12,000 Ukrainians will arrive in the country before the end of the year.
That is down from last year’s total of 19,000. In 2022, when the war began, 46,000 Ukrainians fled to Finland. Altogether, approximately 75,000 Ukrainians have arrived since February 2022.
According to Migri, around 22,000 of the Ukrainians who have arrived in Finland are in the reception system, while around the same number have been granted residence permits.
The rest are thought to have either returned to Ukraine or moved elsewhere within the EU, said Serradj. Migri does not have precise information about where the Ukrainians who left Finland have gone.
"It is difficult to assess where they’ve gone," said Serradj, noting that Germany is the European country that is currently housing the largest number of Ukrainians.
As of last July, more than 1.1 million Ukrainians had registered in Germany.
Finnish attitudes towards receiving Ukrainian migrants have become slightly more negative compared to spring 2022.
That is clear from a government survey that asked Finns whether they agreed that "Finland must take in significant numbers of Ukrainian migrants if necessary".
In March 2022, 44 percent of Finns completely agreed with the statement while 40 percent somewhat agreed. In September 2024, only 24 percent of Finns completely agreed while 42 percent somewhat agreed.
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