Previous estimates of the capacity of Finland’s forests to absorb planet-warming emissions have been overly optimistic, the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke) said on Thursday.
The institute’s latest research indicates that the nation’s forest carbon sinks have been overestimated.
In 2022, Finland's land use and forestry (LULUCF) sector became a net source of emissions for the first time. That means that the carbon absorbed by forests was no longer enough to counterbalance emissions from farming and other land use. Last year the sector constituted a small net sink.
Syke calculates that the felling of forests must be reduced significantly in order for Finland to reach its stated goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. The sustainable amount of felling would be 60–62 million cubic metres per year.
No more imports from Russia
Last year, less stemwood was cut than in previous years: 68.6 million cubic metres, down from 75 million in 2022.
According to the latest government report, the carbon-neutral goal recorded in the Climate Act could be achieved with an annual logging rate of approximately 80 million cubic metres. Syke's recommendation is about a quarter lower than this.
The level of felling has risen since Finland stopped importing timber from Russia due to EU sanctions imposed after its attack on Ukraine.
2035 goal "starting to look nearly impossible"
Syke estimates that the net sink of the land use sector should be around 21 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2035. In 2021-22, it was the opposite, around million tons on the emission side. The carbon-neutral goal is threatening to slip away, researchers warn.
"Against this background, it is challenging to say the least. If logging is not limited, it is starting to look nearly impossible to achieve unless something revolutionary is done in other emission sectors," says Sampo Soimakallio, a senior researcher at Syke.
Soimakallio points out that the government led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) has reduced the amount of biofuel that fuel distributors are required to blend with petrol and diesel, which will make lowering Finland’s greenhouse gas emissions even more difficult.
Earlier this year, the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) warned that Finland could be penalised by the EU for failing to meet emissions standards, noting that it was the furthest behind the EU's 2030 sink goals, along with Germany and Poland.
In June, Minister of Climate and the Environment Kai Mykkänen (NCP) said that Finland should limit logging levels in order to boost the carbon sink.
Mykkänen is stepping down to become mayor of Espoo early next year. The NCP has yet to announce who will take over the climate and environment portfolio.
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