Papers by Lasha Tchantouridze
Voices on Peace and War, 2024
The arms reduction treaties negotiated between the United States and the Soviet Union have become... more The arms reduction treaties negotiated between the United States and the Soviet Union have become irrelevant. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, proclamations of threats of nuclear war have become commonplace. Proliferation of nuclear weapons has proceeded unabated. To get ahead of this set of runaway problems, the United States will have to walk away from its long-standing nuclear non-proliferation policy. Instead, Washington will better defend Western democracies and pro-Western nations by replacing it with a policy of controlled proliferation. America’s highly reliable allies, such as Canada and Australia, have to be encouraged and assisted in developing their own nuclear weapons. They will have to develop or purchase relevant delivery systems as well as maintain their own nuclear deterrence capabilities.
The Institute of Art and Ideas, 2024
With the war in Ukraine evolving into a protracted ground-based war of attrition, the true origin... more With the war in Ukraine evolving into a protracted ground-based war of attrition, the true origins of the conflict remain contested. Undoubtedly Putin's will was the defining factor, but what motivated that will? And does the Russian imperial spirit have a deeper origin? The current conflict is a result of an unresolved Russian chauvinism that once provoked fear in the hearts of Soviet leadership.
Voices on War and Peace, 2024
Since the early 2000s, the Arctic has become a hotbed of military and economic activities. The un... more Since the early 2000s, the Arctic has become a hotbed of military and economic activities. The uneventful 1990s in the great white north were replaced by the resumption of seabed explorations for economic claims, research expeditions, and military buildup. The two factors have contributed to the emergence of the Arctic as a venue for a new international competition: the warming up of the Arctic and the rise of the Putin regime in Russia. Warmer sea temperatures have seasonally reduced the area covered by the sea ice so that hitherto closed navigation routes have become navigable in most summers. In a parallel development, the Arctic nations have become engaged in disputes to demarcate continental shelves and exclusive economic zones. These developments, combined with increasingly appeasing Western policies toward Russia, have inspired Moscow to offer more aggressive policies and show of force in the Arctic.
Security Science Journal, 2023
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it became evident that the longstanding American deterrence... more With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it became evident that the longstanding American deterrence policy that had worked during the Cold War failed. In February 2022, Russia started a war of conquest against its neighbor, and the United States and its European allies were unable to prevent it. America's deterrence broke down for two main reasons. First, successive American Presidents failed to act when Russia used its brute military force against its neighbors. In 2008, Russia attacked Georgia and captured two provinces, proclaiming them "independent states." In 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine, annexed Crimea, and established military control over two other provinces in Donbas, and announced their "independence." In both cases, the United States and its European allies imposed mild trade sanctions on Moscow, most of which they soon repealed. The most remarkable act in this regard was sponsored by the Obama administration, which in 2011-2012 pushed hard for Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization by bullying Georgia not to veto Moscow's application. The second, more significant cause for the failure of deterrence was America's refusal to invest in a new generation of strategic weapons. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has developed very little in terms of upgrading its nuclear arsenal and creating new delivery systems. At the same time, Moscow invested hundreds of billions of dollars in developing and deploying new long-range cruise missiles, new hypersonic missiles, and a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2008
The Institute of Arts and Ideas, 2023
Observers of the war in Ukraine have noted that the Russian army has done considerably better in ... more Observers of the war in Ukraine have noted that the Russian army has done considerably better in 2023 than last year. Ukraine’s ground offensive of 2023, aimed at recapturing the territory lost to the Russians in 2022, has progressed slowly and methodically. Still, the Russians have so far avoided significant concessions and even managed occasional counterattacks. Ukraine's slow progress has been primarily due to the Russian troops' good battlefield and logistics organization. By comparison, Russia’s 2022 campaign was dominated by chaos and confusion. The infamous “meat grinder” push for Bakhmut, headed by the recently deceased Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, is what separates these two distinct phases of the war in Ukraine. The chaos of the first months of the war were the direct product of the 2008-2021 unsuccessful military reforms initiated by Putin and guided by General Valery Gerasimov. What’s responsible for the change of fortune the second year of the war has been the reversal of those reforms and a return to old Soviet military textbooks on defensive operations. Thus important shift in strategy could alter the outcome of the war.
International Journal, 2000
Part 1 The politics of security in Euro-Asia: Euro-Asian conflicts and peacekeeping dilemmas the ... more Part 1 The politics of security in Euro-Asia: Euro-Asian conflicts and peacekeeping dilemmas the "game" of security in Central Asia a new great game in the Transcaucasus? the geopolitics of Caspian energy. Part 2 The Euro-Asian economies in transition: modernization, neo-modernization and the transformation strategy economic transition in the Czech Republic - a real success? economic misconduct in Eastern Europe economic transition in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Central Asian regional integration and new trade patterns.
Institute of Arts and Ideas, 2023
Although Moscow has given occasional assurances to the contrary, it is widely accepted that the R... more Although Moscow has given occasional assurances to the contrary, it is widely accepted that the Russo-Ukraine war will eventually come to an end. However, it is also anticipated that Moscow may resume its campaign in Ukraine after a period of relative peace. Given this, it is in the interest of Kyiv and its supporters to seek a lasting peace settlement that would enable Ukraine to defend itself in the future. This will require catching and holding Moscow's undivided attention by targeting and threatening at least one major strategic asset of the Russian Federation, which is the Black Sea Fleet with its home base in Sevastopol. If Russia were to lose its Black Sea navy, its fight for Sevastopol and Crimea would lose strategic significance, and Moscow would be more willing to negotiate a compromise settlement in Ukraine.
Security Science Journal, Dec 31, 2022
Russia started its nuclear war threats with the commencement of its war in Ukraine.
In the curre... more Russia started its nuclear war threats with the commencement of its war in Ukraine.
In the current case of the war in Ukraine, the most critical question is whether the Russian Federation, the aggressor in this war, would use nuclear weapons. The purpose of this brief paper is to examine the scenarios that are available to Russia to carry out its threat. The theoretical framework employed here is that of Normal Accident Theory (NAT), one of the most prominent theories of catastrophe. Normal Accident Theory explains how Moscow's use of nuclear weapons can trigger a global catastrophe that could bring the international system down. There are scenarios according to which the decisions that may result in the destruction of the international system may cascade fast, and there are scenarios in which such cascading events may be avoided or delayed
The Journal of Central Asian Studies, 2011
The world of international relations is becoming increasingly defined by renewed competition for ... more The world of international relations is becoming increasingly defined by renewed competition for material and natural resources. The world population, and the economic output are growing, while the reserves of oil, gas, fresh water, arable land, potash, timber, fish, etc. are diminishing. Countries with significant natural resources would do well in coming years if they build state capacities, protect their natural resources, and use them judiciously for their national growth and development. Such counties have to create institutions of economic stewardship or management to provide for their own survival, and basic standards of living for their population.Kyrgyz Republic, a post-Soviet Central Asian state, is an example of misguided policies and lost opportunities during the last two decades. The country has experienced sets of violent uprisings, especially in 2005 and 2010, and still many other times during the last two decades.
The aim of this paper is to introduce systemic analysis in poliheuristic method of foreign policy... more The aim of this paper is to introduce systemic analysis in poliheuristic method of foreign policy decision-making analysis. It starts with theoretical review, and assessment of strengths and weaknesses of poliheuristic method, as developed by Mintz et. al. The paper proposes certain changes and/or amendments to the theory, and calls for better integration of this decision-making theory with other IR theories dealing with state behaviour in the international system. A hypothesis and potential tests are proposed and the paper ends with bibliography.
Security science journal, 2021
The two-decade-long U.S.-led military mission in Afghanistan ended in August 2021 after a chaotic... more The two-decade-long U.S.-led military mission in Afghanistan ended in August 2021 after a chaotic departure of the NATO troops. Power in Kabul transferred back to the Taliban, the political force the United States and its allies tried to defeat. In its failure to achieve a lasting change, the Western mission in Afghanistan is similar to that of the Soviet Union in the 1980s. These two missions in Afghanistan had many things in common, specifically their unsuccessful counterinsurgency efforts. However, both managed to achieve limited success in their attempts to impose their style of governance on Afghanistan as well. The current study compares and contrasts some of the crucial aspects of counterinsurgency operations conducted by the Soviet and Western forces during their respective missions, such as special forces actions, propaganda activities, and dealing with crucial social issues. Interestingly, when the Soviets withdrew in 1988, they left Afghanistan worse off, but the US-backe...
Central Asia and The Caucasus, 2020
In the global fight against COVID-19, some success stories are truly surprising, as are some fail... more In the global fight against COVID-19, some success stories are truly surprising, as are some failures Some of the successful countries are in such volatile regions of the world as the Caucasus Perhaps one of the most surprising success stories in the fight with the novel coronavirus has taken place in the Republic of Georgia In executing its response, its national government has closely followed the advice and suggestions of a triumvirate of specialists composed of a doctor, a public health official, and a specialist in infectious diseases Frequently harassed by its neighbor to the north, Russia, the former Soviet republic is not known for its effective political leadership Quite the contrary, its leadership has often been fractious and disorganized However, in dealing with the current pandemic, they have shown good organization and leadership and have managed to rally the entire country for the cause Two main factors have helped Georgia in this fight In 2011, with the help of the United States, the country opened a new center for public health research named after former U S Senator Richard Lugar The Lugar Center, as it is commonly known, is one of the best laboratories in the world for biomedical and biosafety research This lab has played the leading role in Georgia’s fight against COVID-19 The second factor is an odd organization of the executive branch of the Georgian government Composed entirely by appointed officials, the Georgian executive government members owe their allegiance to an informal group of politicians known as “the ruling team,” headed and sponsored by the chairman of the ruling party While in many other countries the public health officials had to tiptoe around political priorities of the governments, the Georgian team was not only tasked with fighting COVID-19 but was also put in the driver’s seat by “the ruling team" © 2020, CA and C Press AB All rights reserved
Contemporary Turkish – Russian Relations From Past to Future, 2021
In the early part of the 21 st century, Turkey and Russia emerged as natural allies united around... more In the early part of the 21 st century, Turkey and Russia emerged as natural allies united around a few important issues of bilateral interest, namely, security and military navigation in the Black Sea, export of natural gas, cooperation in the energy sector, and combatting extremism. However, bilateral troubles have increased between Turkey and Russia since Moscow introduced combat troops to Syria in September 2015 and engaged in action to support the Syrian regime. Although Turkey expressed bewilderment as to the reasons of the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war, Moscow underlined several very good reasons to side with the Assad government. The most important cause for Russian involvement is to become an important player in the Middle East and to influence the future balance of threats in the region. The current chapter seeks to explain contemporary relations between Turkey and Russia, with specific attention to the key stages in the bilateral ties that have recently oscillated between close cooperation and violent conflict. The analysis presented here is guided by the balance of threat theory. In other words, we pay attention to certain epistemological aspects of the theory in explaining foreign policy behavior of both the Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation in matters of bilateral interests. The main argument of this chapter is that the processes in contemporary Russo-Turkish bilateral relations have been informed by threats, real or perceived, emanating from the civil war in Syria.
International Journal: Canada's Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 2001
somehow disconnected, particularly Pupavac's study of children's rights. This is not to d... more somehow disconnected, particularly Pupavac's study of children's rights. This is not to deny that civil wars have a profound impact on children and their families, but the author fails to link her concern for the rule of law to the central theme of the volume. Although both the editor and Cockwell, in his introductory theoretical chapter, define what they mean by peacebuilding and outline its sectoral dimensions, the other authors do not use the terms systematically. The unfortunate consequence is that unless readers persevere, drawing out for themselves the interesting comparisons, sharp contrasts, and conceptual nuances that are to be found in the text, they may fail to discover the volume's many rewarding insights. Robert 0. Matthews/University of Toronto
Thesis (M.A.)--Queen's University at Kingston, 1996. Includes bibliographical references.
The Black Sea remains a sensitive area not only for the Russian Federation, and Georgia, but for ... more The Black Sea remains a sensitive area not only for the Russian Federation, and Georgia, but for the other litoral states as well. Russia would like to remain the only dominant naval power in the area as Moscow desperately tries to halt the extension of NATO’s naval Operation Active Endeavor (OAE) from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea. The Russians see the Black Sea as their sea, and would like to keep this perception alive. For that end the Kremlin has applied considerable pressure on both Georgia and Ukraine. For the latter it has been the question of Crimea, and the rights to the naval base in Sevastopol, which is due to expire in 2017. Abkhazia remains the sword of Damocles for the former. Georgia should assert its sovereignty and independence by establishing a noticeable military presence in the Black Sea. It needs a deterrent for potential invasion and intimidation by a hostile power. With the Black Sea coast exposed, Georgian territorial waters poorly defended, and its ex...
Eurasia, a geopolitical conceptual construct of the 20th century, has been analyzed from diverse ... more Eurasia, a geopolitical conceptual construct of the 20th century, has been analyzed from diverse perspectives. Many distinguished scholars have contributed to this effort. Such analytical exercises inevitably call for further study and commentary on complex dynamics of Eurasian political and economic processes. This global corner currently attracts substantial international attention from great powers and small players alike. Global geopolitical corners have historically been defined by great powers involved in theatrics of international struggle. International politics cannot avoid clashes of interests among participants; such is the nature of the international system composed of nation-states. Currently, the Russian Federation and the United States of America vying to have their vision of regional order prevail in Eurasia. Fortunately, their competition lacks drama of the Cold War, but is no less important, especially for the Eurasian countries directly affected by potential outco...
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Papers by Lasha Tchantouridze
In the current case of the war in Ukraine, the most critical question is whether the Russian Federation, the aggressor in this war, would use nuclear weapons. The purpose of this brief paper is to examine the scenarios that are available to Russia to carry out its threat. The theoretical framework employed here is that of Normal Accident Theory (NAT), one of the most prominent theories of catastrophe. Normal Accident Theory explains how Moscow's use of nuclear weapons can trigger a global catastrophe that could bring the international system down. There are scenarios according to which the decisions that may result in the destruction of the international system may cascade fast, and there are scenarios in which such cascading events may be avoided or delayed
In the current case of the war in Ukraine, the most critical question is whether the Russian Federation, the aggressor in this war, would use nuclear weapons. The purpose of this brief paper is to examine the scenarios that are available to Russia to carry out its threat. The theoretical framework employed here is that of Normal Accident Theory (NAT), one of the most prominent theories of catastrophe. Normal Accident Theory explains how Moscow's use of nuclear weapons can trigger a global catastrophe that could bring the international system down. There are scenarios according to which the decisions that may result in the destruction of the international system may cascade fast, and there are scenarios in which such cascading events may be avoided or delayed
because it is being waged between two nations that seem completely identical to an outside observer, but also due to few paradoxes that have characterized the conflict from the very beginning. The chief among these is the fact that the stakes appear to be very high for the parties involved, but few outsiders seem to understand why it is so. Further, some of the major victories in the conflict have been achieved without firing a shot, but some more minor objectives seem to be unattainable even with an application of massive force. Also, although conflict is seen as a decisive geopolitical battle influencing events for decades to come, it has remained strictly localized without involvement of major international actors. In this chapter we explore these paradoxes and attempt to address some of their implications.