Military Operating Concept Development
Military Operating Concept Development
Military Operating Concept Development
Military Operating
Concepts Development
SHOPMYBOOK
USA
2012
The views expressed in this Scientific Monograph are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Ministry
of Defense. Authors of this publication enjoy full academic freedom,
provided they do not disclose classified information, or misrepresent
official Czech Republic policy. Such academic freedom empowers them
to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the interest of
further debate on key issues.
4
Military Operating
Concepts Development
Editorial revision:
Ing. Jaroslav MRAZ
Doctrine Centre, Vyskov, Czech Republic
Cover Picture: Roland Rawen Havran
Reviewers:
Prof. Ing. Pavel NECAS, Ph.D. Col (R)
Armed Forces Academy of General Milan Rastislav Stefanik, Slovakia
Ing. Josef PROCHAZKA, Ph.D. LtCol (R)
Ministry of Defense, Czech Republic
Authors:
© Ing. Ivo PIKNER, Ph.D.
Ing. Pavel ZUNA, MSS., Ph.D.
Ing. Jan SPISAK
Ing. Vlastimil GALATIK, CSc.
ISBN: 978-16-1627-370-5
5
Content
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Chapter 1
OPERATING CONCEPTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Essence of Military Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Typology of Military Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Institutional Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Functional Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Enabling (integrating) Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Operating Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Operating Concept’s Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Number and Structure of Potential Operating Concepts . . . . . . 24
Inputs for the Operating Concepts Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
National Security Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
National Defense Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Relevant International Strategic Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Security and Operational Environment Assessment . . . . . . . . . 27
Security Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Operational Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Relationship Between Security and Operational Environment . . . 29
Foreign Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
The U. S. Military Concept System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
The United Kingdom Military Concept System . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
The French Military Concept System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Comparison of the Selected Operating Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Recommendations for the Concept Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Possible Structure of Operating Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6
Chapter 2
OPERATING CONCEPTS AND DEFENSE PLANNING. . . . . . . . . . . 43
Defense Planning Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Utilization of Operating Concepts in Defense Planning . . . . . . . 48
Operating Concepts and Modernization Process
of the Armed Forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Operating Concepts and Doctrines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Operating Concepts and their Relationship to the Departmental
Legal and Normative Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Chapter 3
DEVELOPMENT OF OPERATING CONCEPTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Operating Concept Project Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Operating Concept Development Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Operating Concept Development Management . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Operating Concept Development Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Competence and Responsibility in Managing of the Operating
Concepts Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Fundamentals of Operational Analysis in the Operating
Concept Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Reasoning in the Operating Concept Development Process . . . . . . . 70
Reasoning Development by Deduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Reasoning Development by Induction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Reasoning Development by Abduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Integrated Reasoning Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
List of abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
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List of figures
8
Foreword
The book is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, Operating
Concepts, the authors discuss the essence of operating concepts, their typology
and structure. The managing inputs and background are very important for
the preparation of the operating concepts development. They are primarily
given by the national and international political and strategic documents.
Furthermore, it is necessary to define the situation and development trends
in the security and operational environment. Understanding the relationship
between the political strategic document, security and operational environment
and operating concepts is crucial for their successful development and use in
the process of building and developing the armed forces.
9
In the third chapter, Development of Operating Concepts, the authors
describe the project management behind the development and updating
of operating concepts. Nevertheless, the project management needs
to be understood both from the actual management of the concept
development perspective and from the competence and responsibility
of the organizational elements within the Department of Defense. This
chapter explains the operational analysis and research principles within the
development of operating concepts.
The target group of this book is primarily the management staff and
experts who are involved in the concepts development, either related
to the use of allocated resources (concepts of forces employment), their
internal function (functional concepts) or organization and building of
organizational entities (institutional concepts). The development of the
operating concepts is a complex process largely based on empiric research.
Therefore, this book may not, nor was it the intention of the authors,
cover all areas of this complex process. The specific procedures of the
concept development must be defined separately for each organizational
entity, based on its mission, objectives, personnel structure and internal
processes. The objective of this book is to provide a basic overview of
the mission and operating concepts development in relation to the
management of building, development and the armed forces employment.
10
Introduction
11
scheme in Figure 1, representing the most general philosophical approach
to planning the development and use of military tools.
This analysis serves as a basis for the preparation of a strategy for the future
without surprises, i. e. how will the factors develop according to the opinion
of the concept’s authors. Subsequently, this strategy is then developed into
various activities (partial strategies) addressing the expected options of the
factor development (uncertainty). In the third step, borderline situations
are identified and various activities dealing with these situations are
prepared. They concern security situation factors and their development,
which may seem completely unreal but, nevertheless, they may not be
ruled out. The fourth and very important step concerns the preparation of
a strategy designed to influence the security environment to develop and
behave in a manner preventing negative development (risk) options and
avoiding the establishment of conditions for borderline situations (shocks).
12
5. Security (operational) environment;
6. Other modeling assumptions for the given scenario.
13
Chapter 1
OPERATING CONCEPTS
„The first task of strategy is the final assembly (Bereitstellung) of the fighting
forces, the first deployment of the army. Here, multifarious political, geographic,
and national considerations come into question.“
15
• Enabling (integrating) concepts, describing the capabilities
required for the activity of the military functions and sub-functions.
Likewise, the operating concepts are hierarchical and if, with respect to
the level of war, it is necessary, they may be further classified. From the
higher level to the lower level there are strategic concepts, operational
concepts and tactical concepts.
16
Institutional Concepts
Strategic Level
Operating Concepts
(Capstone Concepts for Joint Operations)
Operational Level
(Joint Operating Concepts)
Tactical Level
Military Concepts
Focused Logistics
Force Protection
Maneuver
Fires
Digital battlespace
NEC Operational
Joint Undersea
using Concept
Environment
Global Strike
Superiority
Concept
A hierarchy also exists within each type of operating concept. For example,
a tactical concept describing the performance of a wide range of tactical
activities in a broader sense, such as employment of force component, is
of a higher level and provides more general authoritative instruction than
a tactical concept describing specific types of tactical activities in greater
detail, such as the use of a force protection at the tactical level.
Institutional Concepts
Institutional concepts rank the highest within all military concepts. The
institutional concepts provide a description of the higher level features and
the functioning of a military institution or institutions. They are based on
security and defense policy strategic documents (e.g. Security Strategy,
17
Defense Strategy). They provide contents (context) and give advice to all
other military concepts. Institutional concepts are also frequently made
public and are presented (promulgated) as the vision statement covering
a specific future time horizon.
Functional Concepts
18
Operating Concepts
19
Operating Concept’s Attributes
The NATO Glossary of Terms and Definitions AAP-6 defines the concept as
a notion or a statement of an idea, expressing how something might be done
or accomplished. The Canadian Experimentation Centre defines a concept
as a problem identification and hypothesis how to solve the problem. The
method of problem solution may be innovative, evolutional or revolutionary,
leading to the development of new military forces, implementation of new
technologies, organizational structures or processes.
Each operating concept has its own attributes. Attributes are not
individual structural parts being discussed by the concept. They rather
represent qualitative characteristics that the concept aims to achieve.
20
The development of an operating concept starts with expressing the
initial hypothesis that is to be verified and supported with arguments in
the course of the process. The concept should be comparable to historical
and experimental examples. A newly proposed operating concept does
not automatically guarantee its acceptance. It may be accepted with lack
of confidence. Therefore, it needs to reflect the depth of the thinking
and research. A concept should use a language fully respecting the
hypothetical and empirical nature of the statements. A good concept is
written in a language allowing as well as evoking critical views.
21
• Substitution – following another concept or replacing this concept;
22
Spišák, p. 19) Concepts are rarely based on abstract theoretical assumptions.
Hypotheses about the future are usually defined based on practical experience
and lessons learned. History represents the main resource for studying and
understanding military affairs. A concept that ignores the warfare lessons
learned loses its credibility. Concepts should reflect the understanding
of its own evolution as well as of previous concepts. History offers many
perspectives of employment of the armed forces, describing factors which
may be, at present and in the future, perceived as unique.
23
for strategic deterrence, maintaining the peace, stabilization operations,
regional unconventional war, etc.
If the specific type of forces is critical for the conduct of operations, the
operating concepts may be classified based on these types. Then there are
operating concepts for anti-submarine operations, air raid operations,
mechanized troops operations, anti-ballistic missiles defense operations, etc.
Should the operating concept be related to a specific level of war and should
the specifics of this level represent a decisive feature of the concept, the
concepts may be classified as strategic, operational or tactical. However,
not always is it suitable to classify the concept according to the level of
war , especially if it covers more than one level.
24
elaboration and increasing number of existing and future concepts
impose a risk, the point is not to purposelessly limit their number. The
decision on preparing a new operating concept should take into account
the mutual relationships and clear links to the existing system of the
operating concepts. Any new concept needs to clearly state its relationship
to the existing and comparable operating concepts.
25
The goal of operating concepts is to direct the process of transformation
and development of military tools for their operational readiness with
a perspective of future 10 to 20 years. Underlying documents (see Figure 4)
for the concept development include national security strategies, national
defense strategies, or other strategic documents of a similar character adopted
at the level of collective defense organizations (NATO), collective security
organizations (UN, EU) and cooperative security organizations (OBSE).
26
Relevant International Strategic Documents
Security Environment
27
of the country are met and get into conflicts with the interests of other
stakeholders (countries, international organizations, multinational corpora
tions, international non-governmental organizations, interest groups, etc.) and
run the processes that significantly influence the level of security. Moreover,
there are processes and phenomena within the security environment that
demonstrate a significant security impact, but can not be coped by the country
alone. The most significant and frequent source of threat to a country, however,
remain the intentional threats.
Operational Environment
• opponent (enemy);
28
• infrastructure;
• technological factors;
Foreign Experience
Approaches to the development and application of operating concepts
in militarily more experienced countries may serve as a guidance and
inspiration for particular nations. It should be emphasized that it is not
possible to merely copy the foreign system. The system must reflect the
national political interests and objectives and their specifications for
future missions and tasks of military tools.
29
For example, it is possible to mention the experience of the United States
or the United Kingdom. Their approaches to the operating concepts
development may be considered as the best elaborated and may thus
be a good guidance for countries that are yet uncertain which national
approach to the issue of the operating concept development to adopt.
These future operations concepts cover the period for the next 8 to 20 years,
see Figure 5.
30
The responsibility for the creation and development of the Capstone
Concept for Joint Operation and its integration with the subordinated
concepts rests on J7 – Joint Force Development and Integration Division
(JFDID). This division ensures that the set of joint concepts, known as
Joint Operations Concepts, is well presented in the policies and planning
documents such as Quadrennial Defense Review, Strategic Planning
Guidance, Military Strategy, Service Transformation Roadmaps, and
Service Concepts. These documents are reviewed every three years.
JOpsC Family
Strategic Guidance
NSS, NMS, QDR, TPG, SPG, CPG
Operational JOE
Context Joint Operating
JOCs Environment
Operational design
and effects
JFCs
1. Homeland Security Support Enduring Military
2. Strategic Deterrence
Functions
3. Major Combat
Operations
1. Battlespace Awareness 5. Force Protection
4. Stability Operations
2. Command and Control 6. Net-Centric Ops
5. Shaping
3. Force Application 7. Force Management
6. Irregular Warfare
4. Focused Logistics 8. Training
JICs
Narrowly scoped to describe specific military capabilities
31
The following section describes two groups of concepts, the Capstone
Concept for Joint Operations and a group of Joint Operating Concepts.
The Capstone Concept for Joint Operations dominates the set of subordinated
joint operating concepts and defines their contents, role and coherence for
the development of forces in the future. It analyzes the fact that the future
commander of the joint forces will have to adjust and combine a number of basic
military activities – deployment, combat, security assistance, humanitarian
and reconstruction tasks, etc., all that in compliance with the requirements
of each planning situation. The concept is not a guide specifying methods
in detail; it does not say how to write a concept and it does not introduce an
authoritative doctrine. It starts with describing the set of operating problems,
then it provides a possible operating solution and concludes with a search for
institutional consequences of adopting this solution.
32
specifying how the joint forces should operate in the future and providing
the systemic perspective of the operational environment, principal activities
of the joint forces commander and key characteristics of the joint forces.
In summary, the pivotal hypothesis describes what the future joint forces
will do to manage future challenges. The supporting hypotheses offer greater
details in how the joint forces will address the given military problem.
The systemic perspective of the environment includes the assessment of
complexity generated by the involvement of the human factor in the solution
to military problems and the difficulty to develop acceptable solutions. The
principal joint activities represent a range of activities performed by the
joint forces, regardless of a type of operation.
33
Joint Operating Concepts
Joint Operating Concepts (JOC) describe how the commander of the joint
forces will conduct the military operations in the campaign at the operating
level. They apply the Capstone Concept for Joint Operation to more specific
military problems. These concepts identify challenges, basic capabilities
that might be necessary to achieve objectives, and the respective conditions
under which the capabilities should be applied. They affect the development
of scenarios. Through the JOC the joint forces commander describes how
the future joint forces will be used to fulfill specific operations. The JOC
identify required operational capabilities necessary to achieve the required
effects and objectives and set the operational context for experimentation
and development of joint functional and joint integrating concepts.
• Deterrence Operations;
• Irregular Warfare;
The concepts give a rational and cautious assessment of how the United
Kingdom’s armed forces intend to operate in the medium to long term,
based on the changes in politics and emerging trends in strategic,
security and technological areas. The concepts analyze, systematically
evaluate and practically experimentally test the hypotheses in order to
draft justified methods of employment of the military forces and identify
34
the requirements for their capabilities. They have different forms, e.g.
a High Level Operational Concept (HLOC) describing the principles
and characteristics of the possible future employment of the United
Kingdom’s armed forces in general terms. An efficient use of military
forces is ensured with seven functions (command, inform, operate,
prepare, project, protect, sustain) of the Defense Capability Framework
(DCF), which provides a common language to describe the capabilities
required from the armed forces.
35
Interim Concepts are analytical concepts subjected to further development
and assessment before their approval (confirmation) by the Defense Staff.
The term “interim” describes the period of development rather than
the specific outcome (product). After the interim concept is approved,
it becomes an applied concept. The applied concepts are brought to life
by officers with responsibility for capability development (Capability
Developers) and defense planning (Defense Planners). The time horizon
covers 10 to 20 years.
The following part describes two groups of concepts, the Joint High Level
Operational Concept and the Future Land Operating Concept.
36
Future Land Operating Concept
The Future Land Operating Concept 2008 (FLOC) stems from the National
Security Strategy and Defense Strategic Guidance. It is based on the HLOC
and is an input for further concepts. It is built on strategic trends and the
British Defense Doctrine. It provides a conceptual basis for the employment
of land forces by 2030 in order to develop their capabilities and establish the
structure of future forces. The land forces will cooperate in operations together
with other instruments of national power and international organizations.
The basic framework for the development of an armed forces concept (High
Level Operating Concept) consists of the French White Paper on Defense
and National Security. With respect to the Armed Forces Concept, the White
Paper is considered a truly fundamental document that defines principal
frameworks for the anticipated tasks and activities of the armed forces. The
Armed Forces Concept then represents a contribution of the armed forces to
the implementation of the White Paper into the military area.
The Armed Forces Concept provides a basis for the lower level concepts,
respecting the hierarchy of documents (concepts – doctrines – publications),
prepared by the Joint Centre for Concept Development, Doctrine and
Experimentation (Le Centre interarmées de concepts, de doctrines et
d´expérimentations, CICDE).
Concept Structure
37
France White Paper on Defense and
National Security
Capstone concept
Main concept
Communication and
Logistic Planning
Information Systems
38
highest level joint forces concept (such as Capstone or High Level Operating
Concept) is in place, which forms the basis for the subordinate concepts.
The foregoing part of this book analyzes the approaches of the military
concept development, focusing on the operating concepts of selected
countries. In addition, theoretical background, as well as the framework for the
preparation of these documents, have been clarified. The main findings and
general recommendations arising from the foregoing may be fully applied to
the development of the “Operating Concept of the Armed Forces in Future
Operations”as general rule. These findings and recommendations include:
39
• Framework for the development of an operating concept may be
seen in the certified Operating or Military Concept Development
Procedures, which is to determine the hierarchy, purpose and basic
form of these documents;
40
4. Identified threats and risks;
5. Basic principles of performance of the armed forces under the conditions
of a scenario or scenarios of future operational environment, description
of potential conduct of operations;
6. Risks arising from the methods of the forces employment and their
elimination;
7. Basic capabilities necessary to achieve the required efficiency of the
armed forces;
8. Consequences and impact for the forces development under the
respective DOTMLPFI areas:
41
The following may be recommended as appendices:
42
Chapter 2
The operating concepts are multipurpose documents. They are not used
merely as one of the starting points to define required future capabilities of
the armed forces but they also form the foundation of military doctrines.
They also represent a basis for the lower degree operating concepts, or
the institutional or functional concepts. They unify the joint efforts and
principal directions towards the achievement of future goals and missions
of the armed forces. Upon aligning the existing and required capabilities in
the defense planning process it is not possible to eliminate all risks. Under
restricted availability of resources it is necessary to focus the efforts on the
priorities of the development of capabilities addressing the most probable
risks and risks with the highest impact. (Bučka, Mačovský, 2012).
This chapter focuses on the position and role of the operating concepts in
the defense planning process and their importance for mid-and long-term
planning.
43
The approaches to defense planning have undergone a dynamic
development. After the collapse of the bipolar world and the elimination
of the extensive conflict threat between the armed forces of the Warsaw
Pact and NATO, fundamental changes in planning the armed forces took
place in the 1980s and mostly in the 1990s. The principle of planning
based on the main threat, represented by a potential global conflict, was
abandoned and ways how to respond to new crises under a very wide
spectrum of future threats have gradually started being explored.
44
National Intelligence
Political assessment
assessment
Available source
Balance of investment Defense priorities
framevork
Force generation
priorities
45
preparation time, time horizon for capabilities planning and achievement
of the desired status, responsibilities, relations to the previous cycle, etc.
The directive may also define defense priorities.
46
development and assurance of the resource framework. Under the defense
planning process, there is a partial process of comparing the current, planned
and minimum required capabilities of the forces. This partial process compares
the qualitative aspect of the capabilities and results in an overview documenting
gaps and surpluses in the future capabilities, compared to the present status.
Simultaneously, the discrepancy in the capabilities is identified in order to
eliminate duplicities and to identify missing capabilities, or to eliminate
negative mutual effects of the capabilities.
The above given scheme and descriptions of the node points in the defense
planning process demonstrate that the operating concepts are out of the main
line of the defense planning, likewise, the prognosis of the future security
and operational environment. Nevertheless, the information, conditions
47
and requirements for the capabilities of the armed forces resulting from
the operating concepts represent fundamental inputs for the actual process.
Without structured operating concepts that take into account the assumed
development of the security and operational environment it is not possible
to responsibly set any future minimum requirements for the capabilities
of the armed forces, name and describe them correctly and determine the
responsible entity and performance indicators.
The operating concept itself usually does not answer the question of what
armaments, weapons and organization the armed forces will have to have
in the future – these are usually not specified or are specified only generally.
With respect to the capabilities the operating concept has to be interpreted
by experienced commanders and staffs or doctrinal centers. Already at
this stage it is possible and desirable to use modeling and simulations to
verify the impacts of the assumed changes in the capabilities of the armed
forces on the fulfillment of appropriately selected military action scenarios
within the boundaries given by the operating concepts. By doing this it
allows to prevent wasting of resources for purchasing armament, weapons
and organizational structures that have no future and will not generate the
required and expected effect from the very beginning.
If the concept is prepared for the strategic level, such as “the concept of
the armed forces employment”, then the first step entails the definition of
the capabilities for achieving the political objectives at the strategic level.
Subsequently, the capabilities at the operational and tactical level need to
be defined, with more detailed capabilities representing the starting points
for the specification of armament, equipment, organization of forces, etc.
Scenario based capability planning provides a logical basis for the defense
planning process. The operating concepts allow the military organizations not
to only identify the future security challenges and appropriately get prepared to
address them, but also focus on the existing challenges as efficiently as possible.
This is not even in sharp conflict with the capability based planning since the
requested “product” of the defense planning process concerns the capabilities
of the armed forces to be used to face threats and risks in the future.
48
utilization of the available resources within the set time frameworks in
order to achieve the required capabilities. The requirements placed on the
minimal capabilities of the armed forces, based on the operating concepts,
form an integral part of the process of modernization or acquisition of the
armed forces. The operating concepts themselves form a part of the national
doctrinal system development process.
The actual build-up and development of the armed forces must be rested
on scientific prognoses of the operational environment development,
requirements placed on the capabilities of the armed forces as well as on
the efficient system of defense planning.
49
weaponry program Alocation of financial resources
Experimentation
implementation
Initiation of
weaponry
Development
Research
Capability requirements
Operating concepts
Implementation
of design Perspective of modernization next 20 − 25 (30) Y
modernization
Vision of weaponry modernization
Based on the prognoses in the “Modernization Plan Outlook for the Next
20-25 years” the requirements for the implementation of modernization
plans are continuously included in the prepared planning and conceptual
documents. The outlook of modernization plans is in a direct correlation
with the operating concepts of various levels and their resulting minimum
requirements placed on the capabilities of the forces. The outlook is used
as a starting point for the planning document development, especially of
a mid-and long-term plan. The relationship between the modernization
plan outlook, long-term and midterm plans and commencement of the
program of armament is clearly shown in Figure 8. The absence of any of the
steps and documents necessary for the efficient processes of modernization
and acquisition causes distortions and damages, not only financial and
material, but also moral.
50
The planning documents set the commencement and termination dates
of the respective stages of the modernization plan, competences and
responsibilities of the entrusted components and financial resources for
the purchase of new armament and technology, including contribution to
research, development, manufacturing and testing.
The operating concept itself is not a legal or normative document for the
processes of build-up and sustainment of the operational apabilities, or the
build-up and development of the armed forces. The operating concepts
51
form a comprehensive and structured set of underlying documents
enabling decision-making by top DoD officers about the target operational
capabilities. In order to ensure that the axioms and considerations included
in the operating concept become valid, they must be implemented into the
standard legal and normative documents, which are as follows:
The description how the armed forces will be used over the next 10-25 years
becomes the input for elaborating the strategy for the build-up and development
of the armed forces. Nevertheless, the operating concept must simultaneously
respect the political specification of the aim and purpose of employment of the
military tools to ensure the security interests of the country.
The operating concepts represent an input for the strategies of build-up and
development of the armed forces in the long run. Before the conclusions of
the approved operating concept may be reflected in the plans of acquisition
of armaments and equipment, they have to be experimentally verified. It is
necessary to verify what material, which operating procedures, what kind
of organization of the troops, etc. may best ensure the identified capabilities
of the forces. For example, the proportion of fire power, requirements for
deployment and possible maneuver of a certain armament system will
differ between the technology produced by different manufacturers. Also,
the requirements for material functioning in combat will be different. Thus,
there is a large set of criteria to be applied when assessing the armament
and equipment. This process is relatively lengthy and thus it is necessary to
assume the period of 5-8 years when the armament and equipment will be
commissioned for the use in combat.
52
The operating concepts do not directly affect the midterm and annual
planning. The midterm planning covers the horizon of 0-5 years. It
is a period of time not covered by the operating concept. Midterm and
annual planning of the Department’s activities primarily addresses the use
of the existing military forces under ongoing operations. Midterm and
annual planning of the Department’s activities affects the development of
the operating concepts by the fact that the plan of the development and
update of the concepts represent one of the planned areas. Furthermore,
the midterm and annual plans should address the activities related to the
experimental verification of the conclusions of the operating concepts and
to the preparation of the acquisition process in order to commission the
required capabilities under all the DOTMLPFI areas into the armed forces
over a time span of 8 years.
53
Chapter 3
DEVELOPMENT OF OPERATING CONCEPTS
• Only with difficulties may the authors detect the point in time
when the concept development should be stopped as it has reached
a deadlock, or the problem has ceased to be relevant;
55
Operating Concept Development Process
56
The inclusion of the operating concept development or review into a plan may
arise from the standard defense sector action plans for the respective period. In
addition to a common method of including the requirements and proposals
into the concept development and review plan, an urgent request may be placed
resulting from a fundamental change in the security situation, development of
new technologies or, for instance, due to changes in the resource framework.
An extraordinary inclusion of the concept development or review project into
the plan may slow down other projects already included in the plan.
Since the operating concept development plan is the managing document, its
preamble should stipulate the strategic objective and operational assumptions
in relation to future operational capabilities. The strategic objective should
cover the scope of possible scenarios (military ambitions) under which the
armed forces may be employed, including the types of forces and their size.
57
Every operating concept project covers five principal development
stages: Assignment Clarification, Analysis, Evaluation, Experimental
Verification and Document Preparation. The procedure is managed by
the Concept Development Plan, as in Figure 9.
It should be noted that the studies are not processed for themselves but they
are initiated upon a client’s request. Clients, with respect to the operating
concepts of employment of the armed forces, are top officers of the DoD
with the respective decision making powers and responsibilities for the
development and preparedness of the armed forces, as well as those who
will be subjected to the resulting concept. The client’s request is satisfied by
the author of the operating concept. The authors may concern a group of
analysts of a specific institution in the client’s subordinated organizational
structure, or from an organization not subordinated to the client. The
analyst or group of analysts is not the only ones who prepare the operating
concept. To address a number of issues experts from the entire structure
of the armed forces and often from other organizations not subject to the
DoD are invited. Foreign experts and foreign partner organizations are
asked to join in the consultation process. Additionally, the departmental
organizational structure engages a group of officers who may influence
the proposed solutions in the concept, or may have to use them. The use
of chemical troops may serve as an example. Chemical troops support
combat troops and thus the manner of this support is logically affected by
the manner in which these troops conduct combat. On the other hand, the
concept of use of radiation and chemical surveying will be based on the
concept of employment of the chemical troops.
58
Task Experimental Document
Initiation Analysis Assessment
clarification verification processing
59
(author Zuna)
Analysis of initial Assessment of The choice of method Processing of final
models scenarios for experimental design concept
Orientation in the documents
verification
task and conceptual
assumptions Analysis of superior Proposing of Editorial
The choice of
and subordinate courses of actions experimental model
arrangement
Analysis of clients concepts and their evaluation of document
Project team
and experts Method selection and Processing of the
Assessment of Comment
development of causal relations plan and experiment
realization procedures
Intent of concept models scenarios
development Interpretation,
The main task for the assignment clarification stage is to get familiar with
the context of the respective operating concept and ensure a uniform
understanding of the problem within the team of authors. The team of
authors performs the following three tasks:
The main task for the officers with the decision making power is to provide
the team of authors with the assignment and conceptual prerequisites.
This stage requires intensive discussion between the team of authors, client
and other officers with the decision making power who may influence the
concept development or who may be influenced by the concept conclusions.
61
The team of authors is expected to capture, record and correctly interpret
the knowledge and understanding of the client with respect to the operating
concept under development. A mutually uniform understanding of
a problem addressed in the respective operating concept between the
client and team of authors represents the key prerequisite for successful
development of an operating concept. The results may be captured and
presented as cognitive maps and based on their analysis and convergence
it is possible to model a mutually uniform systemic understanding of
problems addressed in the operating concept.
The operating concept development plan should not merely list the schedule
of activities and deadlines for task completion. Nor should it concern the
directive saying why, how, what, who and when. The operating concept
development plan should document the assignment as well as the conceptual
prerequisites, aspects of uncertainty, analysis of organizational entities
and individuals engaged in the development, interpretation of mutual
understanding of the operating concept problems between the client, team
of authors and the other officers with the decision making power, aspects of
uncertainty and other issues.
62
entities and individuals engaged in the development of the respective
concept, the analytical stage begins, covering the following main tasks:
The main outcome of this stage concerns the understanding of the problems
addressed in the operating concept. This stage requires intensive interaction
with the client and the other decisionmakers in order to specify the task.
As soon as a mutual agreement between these stakeholders is reached, the
team of authors may begin selecting a suitable method for developing and
modeling scenarios, and determining the content and scope of information
necessary to design and assess the solutions. At the same time, the content
and scope of information necessary to assess the aspects of uncertainty need
to be defined. Technically, the analytical stage is complete when the scenario
model development methods have been designed, the relevant information
of the necessary content and scope has been collected and sorted out and the
basic models of scenarios and employment of the forces have been generated.
Based on the previous stage outcomes the team of authors addresses the
following tasks:
63
c. Assessing the causal relationships towards the security and
operational environments and towards the respective applicable
operating concepts;
To assess the scenario models and the role of uncertainty within these
models, and to generate options of the forces employment for their
subsequent assessment, various applied scientific methods of operational
analysis and operational research may be used.
Assessing the scenario models and options of the forces employment is a key
step towards the operating concept development. It is not the mission of
the team of authors to select the option of the forces employment for the
given scenario. It is the client or officers with the respective responsibility
and decision making power who are to select the solution. The role of the
team of authors is to generate scenario models, propose solutions and their
assessment, both with respect to the uncertainty and risks, and the causal
relationships towards the security and operational environment as well as
towards other related operating concepts.
Strategic risks cover the state’s ability to achieve its priority goals in terms of
security and defense. The strategic risks for the armed forces may be determined
by the ability to conduct a certain military operation under a given scenario
and allocate sufficient resources for this operation.
Operational risks cover the ability to fulfill the military strategy or objectives
of military operation with a given range of resources. In other words, it is the
ability of the armed forces to conduct operations in accordance with the crisis
and contingency operational plans and achieve the set political objectives.
64
Tactical risks mean the ability to complete a tactical combat task, such
as seizing and holding a base, conducting maneuvers with forces, block
enemy maneuvers, etc.
From a global perspective the risks may be classified under two groups. The
first group is associated with a militarily stronger enemy and the second group
with conflicts such as irregular warfare, counter insurgency or stabilization
operations. The second group of risks affects the ability of military forces to
achieve the set of political objectives within the given scope and under given
conditions of these types of operations. In other words, which military forces
are needed to gain superiority and defeat the rebels, or gain stability within
the area of the responsibility? For example, what proportion of forces will be
needed considering the size of local population?
65
This is actually obtained as the output from the previous operating concept
development process stages. During the pre-experiment phase the model
of the experiment is determined and a detailed experimentation plan is
prepared. The experimentation plan covers the objectives, experiment
scenario description, dependent, measured and checked variables, observed
data and method of their collection, members of the experimentation team
and a detailed plan of the experimentation.
In all five stages of the operating concept development the team of the authors
and the group decisionmakers have specific tasks associated with the milestones
of the entire development process. If at a given milestone of the development
process a conflict between the team of authors or the group of officers with the
decision making power occurs, it is necessary to go back into the process to the
previous milestone, or cease the concept development altogether.
66
assigned to the armed forces, service branches and troops. The individual
competence and responsibility are implemented within the organizational
structure under the supervision of a particular person. To ensure collective
competence and responsibility it is necessary to establish specific elements of
operating concept development management and coordination. These may
include the Committee for Management and Coordination of Operating
Concept Development, working groups for operating concept development
or special-purpose groups established to harmonize the sets of concepts.
A certain competence and responsibility is also assigned to the officers
managing the service branches in the MoD structure.
A person with the responsibility and decision making power for development
and preparation of forces chairs the Committee for Management and
67
Coordination of Operating Concept Development and, in terms of
administration, supports the Committee’s activities. He provides resources
for the activities carried out by the project teams (teams of authors) and
should there be a disagreement between the individuals representing the
types of forces and types of troops, he makes the final decision.
68
The process starts with defining the expected effect achieved by using
the troops and continues towards the search for sequence of causes
and consequences resulting from the given effect. It generates a list of
identified causes and consequences (axioms and postulates) which
confirm or disprove the hypothesis of employment of the forces.
The process of synthesis proceeds from the identified causes and consequences
towards proposing the option of employment of the forces. The individual
causes and consequences are linked into a tree structure resulting in the
identification of the tasks performed by the forces.
The conclusive facts and evidence needed for reasoning are generated
from the areas describing security environment, operational environment
and combat area. Specific military models are utilized to describe these
environments, such as PMESSII, METT-TC or ASCOPE, or a general
model, such as PESTLEM, POFFEO, etc. may be used as well.
69
As a standard there are several MoD elements taking part in the operating
concept development process, such as intelligence, force planning, operational
planning, strategy and policy, building and development of forces, etc. The
person with the decision making power and responsibility who selects
the solutions and the next steps in the concept development is involved in the
individual stages and steps of the operating concept development process.
Figure 10 shows an example of engagement and roles of the MoD elements in
the analytical process of the operating concept development. A similar table
should be included in the operating concept development plan.
70
Reasoning Development by Induction
71
then option COA3 corresponds with the criteria the best ” and thus this
option will be presented to the commander as the most suitable one. In
order to obtain the most possible objective reasoning development by
abduction it is necessary to use analytical methods as much as possible
and thus limit the influence of the subjective factor on the final conclusion.
72
DEDUCTION
Hypothesis Detection of
test and its Assessment
conditions and
comparison with of the hypotheses
courses for use
the known probability
2 of force
model
1
RETRODUCTION Understanding Evaluation
of new hypotheses criteria:
Search of beyond the harmony
evidence recognition connection
4 confirming the framework pragmatism
Knowledge new hypothesis
base (data,
information) ABDUCTION 3
Inclusion of
5 evidence and Clarification of
The best Assessment
facts into the conditions and
explanation of of the hypotheses
model courses for use
the evidence and probability
facts evidence of force
6
INDUCTION Arrangement
of evidence
7 Validation of Discovery of
into generalized
Creation of a new hypotheses conditions and
model
generalized probability courses for use
hypothesis of force
8
73
• Scenarios, factors of the operational situation expressed by the
PMESII, METT-TC, ASCOPE and other models;
Knowledge Explanation
Argumentation Abduction
(Data) Operational Force development
Planning
situations Political
(scenarios) Organization Military
and structuring
of the facts, Economic
Data Decomposition assumptions
searching and hypotheses Social
Information Doctrines
METT-TC Training
Command
Testing and Composition ASCOPE and Control
refinement of Equipment
hypotheses ... and armament
Personal
Infrastructure
Interoperability
74
Conclusion
75
List of abbreviations
77
Summary
The book is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, Operating
Concepts, the authors discuss the essence of operating concepts, their
typology and structure. In the second chapter, Operating Concepts
and Defense Planning, the authors define the relationship between
the operating concepts and the defense planning process. In the third
chapter, Development of Operating Concepts, the authors describe the
project management in terms of development and updating of operating
concepts. The target group of this book is primarily the management
staff and experts involved in the concepts development, either related
to the use of allocated resources (concepts of forces employment), their
internal functions (functional concepts) or organizing and building of
organizational entities (institutional concepts).
78
Bibliography
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Joint High Level Operational Concept. Joint Doctrine & Concepts Centre
(JDCC), Ministry of Defence, Shrivenham SWINDON, Wiltshire,
October 2001
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programming. 4th ed. Boston, Mass: Thomson Course Technology, 2005.
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MONTGOMERY, Evan Braden. Defense Planning for the Long Haul: Scenarios,
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www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a522190.pdf
81
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82
Authors
Ivo PIKNER
LtCol, Dipl. Ing., Ph.D., (born 1963),
ivo.pikner@unob.cz
Jan SPISAK
Colonel (Ret.), Dipl. Ing., (born 1958),
jan.spisak@unob.cz
83
at the Czech Armed Forces Training and Doctrine Centre. During years
2007–2009 served as a chief Department of the Military Art Studies at the
Institute of Operational and Tactical Studies and Institute of Strategic and
Defense Studies. He retired from military service in 2009. He currently holds
the position of the assistant professor at the Department of Career Education
of the Faculty of Economics and Management with specialization in military
strategy, operational art and force capabilities.
Pavel ZUNA
Colonel (Ret.), Dipl. Ing., MSS. Ph.D.,
(born 1962),
pavel.zuna@unob.cz
84
Vlastimil GALATIK
Colonel (Ret.), Dipl. Ing., CSc.,
(born 1956),
vlastimil.galatik@unob.cz
85
Title: Military Operating Concepts Development
Ing. Jan SPISAK
Publisher: SHOPMYBOOK
Pages: 88
Edition: First
Format: 6˝× 9˝
ISBN: 978-16-1627-370-5
86