MER February 2022
MER February 2022
MER February 2022
BANK OF TANZANIA
Monthly
Economic
Review
February 2022
BOT Monthly Economic Review i
February 2022
Contents
1.0 Prices and Food Stocks...................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Inflation Developments ........................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Fuel Prices.............................................................................................................................................. 2
1.3 Prices of Food Crops .............................................................................................................................. 2
1.4 Food stock ...............................................................................................................................................2
Glossary ............................................................................................................................................................ 23
1 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
1.1 Inflation 7
6
In January 2022, inflation remained within the target
5
of 3-5 percent and in line with EAC and SADC
4
convergence criteria (Chart 1.1a and 1.1b)1. Twelve-
3
month headline inflation was 4 percent, slightly
2
lower than 4.2 percent in December 2021, largely
1
on account of a decrease in prices of non-food
0
consumer goods and services. The inflation rate,
May-19
May-20
May-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
however, was higher than 3.5 percent recorded in the
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Tanzania
corresponding period in 2021, mainly as a result of computations.
an increase in food prices. On month-to-month basis,
Chart 1.1b: Twelve-month Inflation and Targets
prices of consumer goods and services increased by Percent
Headline inflation Country target EAC Benchmark
0.6 percent compared with 0.8 percent in December
SADC-Lower bound SADC-Upper bound
2021. 9
8
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
products and liquefied hydrocarbons (gas).
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Tanzania
Twelve-month food inflation (food and non-alcoholic computations.
Note: Data from January 2020 are rebased with base year 2020.
beverages) was 6.3 percent in January 2022
compared with 4.9 percent in the preceding month.
The increase is mainly associated with the price rise Table 1.1: Inflation Rates
Base Year 2020 = 100
expectations as a result of delay of seasonal short Month-to-month inflation Annual inflation
Main groups Weight Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
rains. Non-food inflation eased to 3.1 percent from Food and non-alcoholic beverages 28.2 -0.4 1.9 1.0 2.8 4.9 6.3
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 1.9
3.9 percent, driven by prices of information and Clothing and footwear 10.8 1.9 0.2 0.5 3.7 4.5 3.1
May-19
May-20
May-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
by 3.3 percent.
Sorghum Round potatoes Finger millet
Chart 1.2: Domestic Prices of Petroleum Products 70
TZS per litre
60
50
Petrol Diesel Kerosene White products
40
2,800
30
2,400
20
2,000 10
1,600 0
-10
1,200
-20
800 -30
May-19
May-20
May-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
400
0
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, and Bank of Tanzania
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
May-19
May-20
May-21
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
computations.
Billions of TZS
24,000 12
Percent
of 2021/22. The growth was due to accommodative 20,000 10
16,000 8
monetary policy and recovery of private sector credit 12,000 6
Mar-21
Feb-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
percent in preceding month (Chart 2.1 and Table
2.1). The growth rate was more than twofold of the Source: Bank of Tanzania and banks.
Note: LHS denotes left hand scale; and RHS, right hand scale.
outturn in the corresponding period in 2021.
Table 2.1: Money Supply and its Main Components
MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING
STATEMENT Outstanding stock (Billion of TZS) Annual growth (%)
Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Net foreign assets 11,862.2 13,966.0 13,201.8 0.4 30.2 11.3
Bank of Tanzania 11,389.7 13,219.1 12,979.8 -4.9 28.2 14.0
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held in
Banks 472.6 746.8 222.0 --- 80.5 -53.0
January 2022 was satisfied with the conduct of monetary Net domestic assets 18,061.6 20,592.1 21,193.8 10.8 7.3 17.3
and its outcome in November and December 2021. Based Domestic claims 25,161.9 30,030.5 30,081.5 6.2 14.9 19.6
o/w Securities held by banks 5,707.4 6,767.3 6,933.9 7.2 17.6 21.5
on low inflationary expectations, the MPC approved the Claims on the private sector 20,323.5 22,344.1 22,362.7 2.6 10.0 10.0
Bank to sustain accommodative monetary policy in January Other items (net) -7,100.4 -9,438.4 -8,887.7 -3.9 36.0 25.2
and February 2022 in order to support economic growth Extended broad money (M3) 29,923.8 34,558.0 34,395.6 6.4 15.5 14.9
Foreign currency deposits 7,167.5 7,469.7 7,333.4 2.6 8.4 2.3
through increase in lending to the private sector by banks. Broad money supply (M2) 22,756.3 27,088.4 27,062.2 7.7 17.6 18.9
Other deposits 8,535.1 9,462.8 9,410.7 8.9 8.6 10.3
Economic growth in Tanzania Mainland was satisfactory Narrow money supply (M1) 14,221.1 17,625.5 17,651.5 7.0 23.1 24.1
Currency in circulation 4,198.7 5,012.0 4,798.6 4.2 11.4 14.3
at 4.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2021, driven Transferable deposits 10,022.5 12,613.5 12,852.9 8.2 28.4 28.2
by construction, agriculture, mining and quarrying, Source: Bank of Tanzania, banks; Bank of Tanzania
computations.
manufacturing and transport. Inflation gradually increased Note: “---” denotes a change that exceeds 100 percent.
to 4.2 percent in December 2021 from 3.8 percent in July
2021, due to supply-side factors, but remained within the Domestic credit extended to the private sector and
target of 3-5 percent. The Zanzibar economy grew strongly central government by the banking system grew
at 8.8 percent in the third quarter of 2021 compared with 3.3 by 19.6 percent in the year ending January 2022
percent in the corresponding quarter in 2020, largely driven
compared with 6.2 percent in January 2021. Private
by resumption of tourism. Inflation edged up, driven by a rise
sector credit growth maintained strong recovery pace,
in non-food prices, but was lower than the target of 5 percent.
recording an annual growth of 10 percent, same as
Private sector credit growth improved to 7.8 percent and 10 in the preceding month, and significantly higher than
percent in November and December 2021, respectively, from
2.6 percent recorded in January 2021 (Table 2.1 and
less than 5 percent in most of 2021, and was consistent with
Chart 2.2). The strong growth was largely attributed
the target of 10.6 percent for 2021/22. This was attributable
to accommodative monetary policy and rebound of economic
to improving business conditions from adverse impact
activities following the re-opening of the global economy. The of COVID-19, coupled with accommodative monetary
external sector continued to recover from the effects of the policy and supportive fiscal policy. Much of the credit
COVID-19 pandemic. Foreign exchange reserves remained was for personal activities, which comprises of small
adequate, amounting to USD 6.4 billion and covering about and medium enterprises; trade; manufacturing and
6.6 months of imports. Government budget execution was
mining activities (Table 2.2). Personal loans, trade,
in conformity with the estimates due to improvement in
manufacturing and agriculture continued to account
revenue collection and foreign grants and loans receipts.
for the largest share of outstanding credit to the
The MPC observed that, due to the recent satisfactory private sector (Chart 2.3).
performance of the economy and continuing
recovery of the global economy, macroeconomic
targets for 2021/22 are expected to be achieved.
BOT Monthly Economic Review 4
February 2022
Chart 2.2: Credit to Private Sector from Banks Interest rates offered on deposits remained broadly
unchanged, with overall deposit interest rate
Stock of credit to the private sector (LHS) Credit growth (RHS)
24,000 14
Percent
12,000 8
Table 2.3: Selected Banks’ Lending and Deposits
8,000 6 Interest Rates
Percent
4,000 4
Jan-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Savings deposit rate 2.50 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.52 1.61 1.60 1.61
0 2
Overall lending rate 16.63 16.57 16.75 16.55 16.65 16.40 16.37 16.30
Feb-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Short-term lending rate
(Up to 1 year) 15.76 16.81 16.89 16.69 16.75 16.83 16.60 16.70
Negotiated lending rate
Source: Bank of Tanzania, banks and Bank of Tanzania 13.38 13.83 14.44 14.07 13.65 13.66 14.06 13.68
Overall time deposit rate
computations 6.68 7.35 6.64 6.60 6.64 6.80 6.79 6.79
Note: LHS denotes left hand scale; and RHS, right hand scale. 12-months deposit rate
Negotiated deposit rate
8.23 9.12 7.86 7.72 7.77 7.63 7.87 7.87
9.22 9.17 9.66 9.59 9.71 9.78 9.82 9.92
Margin between one year
Table 2.2: Annual Growth of Credit to Selected Economic lending and deposit rates 7.53 7.68 9.03 8.97 8.98 9.21 8.74 8.83
Personal
Jan-21
21.3
Aug-21
20.0
Sep-21
19.3
Oct-21
20.4
Nov-21
19.4
Dec-21
18.5
Jan-22
25.4
2.3 Financial Markets
Trade -12.4 7.8 12.5 12.6 14.2 19.7 19.6
Manufacturing -8.5 -0.8 4.6 4.0 7.1 12.4 7.0 The money market was characterized by adequate
level of liquidity, consistent with the accommodative
Mining and quarrying 1.3 -0.3 -1.0 0.7 1.8 10.4 10.9
Building and construction -5.4 -10.3 -12.0 -10.5 -6.5 -6.9 -1.1
Hotels and restaurants 5.3 -6.1 -4.6 -4.9 -2.5 -1.2 -8.0 monetary policy. As a result, interest rates remained
Agriculture -6.3 -14.6 -15.1 -14.0 -12.4 -7.7 -4.8
Transport and communication 8.0 -7.4 -8.7 -7.1 -5.7 -7.8 -2.9 low and stable. The government securities market
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations
recorded notable oversubscription. The foreign
Chart 2.3: Share of Credit to Selected Economic exchange market remained active, despite a
Activities
Percent decrease in market turnover.
Personal Trade
Manufacturing Agriculture
Transport and communication
Hotels and restaurants
Building and construction
2.3.1 Treasury Bills Market
2.4
2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 5.1
The Bank of Tanzania conducted two Treasury bills
5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.8
4.8
5.4 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6
5.4 7.3
8.0 8.1 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.3
8.2
auctions on behalf of the Government worth TZS
8.5 8.4
9.4
9.8 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7
9.7 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.1
15.3 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.5 16.6 16.7
16.5
157.8 billion in January 2022 for fiscal operations
and a small amount for development of the market.
34.8 35.5 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.9 36.2 36.8 37.0 37.2 37.0 36.8 39.6
The auctions were oversubscribed, receiving bids
amounting to TZS 319.8 billion, of which TZS 214.7
billion were successful. The overall yield increased,
Mar-21
Feb-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. albeit slightly, to 5 percent from 4.82 percent in the
preceding month (Chart 2.5).
2.2 Interest Rates Chart 2.5: Performance in Treasury Bills Market
Offer (LHS) Tender (LHS)
Interest rates charged on loans by banks continued 400
Sucessful bids (LHS) Overall WAY (RHS)
8
to respond to accommodative monetary policy and
measures adopted, albeit in subdued manner. 300 6
Percent
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
some banks reduced interest rates to single digit, Source: Bank of Tanzania.
especially for agriculture. Note: LHS denotes left hand scale; and RHS, right hand scale.
5 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
2.3.2 Treasury Bonds Market month (Chart 2.7). Meanwhile, reverse repos worth
TZS 259.3 billion matured. Reverse repo rate
The Bank of Tanzania re-opened previously issued
decreased to 5.37 percent from 5.87 percent in
5- and 25-year Treasury bonds by floating TZS 117.0
December 2021.
billion and TZS 133.5 billion, respectively3. The
Chart 2.7: Reverse Repurchase Agreements
5-year bond was undersubscribed, while the 25-year Operations
bond was oversubscribed. The value of bids for the Reverse repo sold (LHS) Matured reverse repo (LHS)
Reverse repo rate (RHS)
two bonds was TZS 774.5 billion, of which TZS 195.9 600 8
to 9.08 percent for 5-year bond and 13.82 percent for 450 6
375 5
25-year bond from 9.37 percent and 15.49 percent,
Billions of TZS
Percent
300 4
respectively, when the parent bonds were issued 225 3
150 2
2.3.3 Interbank Cash Market 75 1
0 0
The interbank cash market was vibrant throughout
Mar-21
Feb-21
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
the month, with the market turnover amounting to
Source: Bank of Tanzania
TZS 1,562.1 billion compared with TZS 1,638.2 Note: LHS denotes left hand scale; and RHS, right hand scale
billion in December 2021 (Chart 2.6). Transactions
for maturity of 2-7 days continued to dominate, 2.3.5 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market
accounting to 73.1 percent of the market turnover.
Interest rate on overnight transactions remained low The value of transactions in the interbank foreign
and stable at 4.03 percent, while that of 2-7 days exchange market (IFEM) decreased to USD 31.3
averaged 4.61 percent. million in January 2022 from USD 100.6 million in
December 2021. The Bank of Tanzania participated
Chart 2.6: Interbank Cash Market Transactions
Other transactions (LHS) 8 to 14 days (LHS)
in the IFEM, selling USD 3.5 million. The exchange
2 to 7 days (LHS) Overnight (LHS)
rate remained stable, trading at TZS 2,309.23 per US
Overnight interbank rate (RHS) Overall Interbank cash market rate (RHS)
2,400 6 dollar compared with TZS 2,307.39 per US dollar in
2,000 5 the preceding month (Chart 2.8). On annual basis,
1,600 4 the shilling registered a marginal appreciation of 0.02
Billions of TZS
Percent
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
180 2,315
140 2,310
Source: Bank of Tanzania
Note: LHS denotes left hand scale; and RHS, right hand Scale 100 2,305
Millions of USD
60 2,300
-20 2,290
May-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jan-22
Oct-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
628.6
465.4
424.3
391.0
340.5
342.2
(Table 4.1).
211.0
Millions of USD
r p
Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Borrower Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%)
Taxes on imports Income tax Taxes on local Other taxes Non-tax revenue
goods and Central government 19,001.5 77.6 20,532.6 72.7 20,714.3 73.1
services DOD 17,950.2 73.3 19,419.5 68.8 19,601.3 69.2
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of Interest arrears 1,051.3 4.3 1,113.1 3.9 1,113.0 3.9
Tanzania computations Private sector 5,430.9 22.2 7,685.0 27.2 7,578.8 26.8
DOD 4,284.6 17.5 6,310.5 22.3 6,243.7 22.0
Expenditure amounted to TZS 2,672.1 billion in Interest arrears 1,146.3 4.7 1,374.5 4.9 1,335.1 4.7
Public corporations 50.5 0.2 28.9 0.1 29.0 0.1
January 2022, of which TZS 1,390.9 billion and TZS DOD 36.9 0.2 23.7 0.1 23.7 0.1
1,281.2 billion were for recurrent and development Interest arrears 13.6 0.1 5.2 0.0 5.3 0.0
External debt stock 24,482.9 100.0 28,246.4 100.0 28,322.1 100.0
expenditure, respectively (Chart 3.2). Locally Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of
Tanzania
financed development expenditure amounted to TZS Note: DOD denotes disbursed outstanding debt; r, revised; and p,
provisional data.
937.6 billion, which was 73.2 percent of development
expenditure.
Debt owed to multilateral institutions continued to
Chart 3.2: Central Government Expenditure in January
Billions of TZS account for the largest share of external debt, followed
2021 Actuals 2022 Estimates 2022 Actuals
by commercial creditors (Table 4.2). In terms of use
of funds, transport and telecommunication were
937.6
830.8
801.7
476.3
474.0
343.6
338.5
153.3
121.6
Table 4.2: External Debt Stock by Creditors Chart 4.1: Government Domestic Debt Stock
Millions of USD Billions of TZS
r p
Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Creditor category Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%)
21,256.1
21,121.3
Multilateral 11,549.4 47.2 12,532.7 44.4 12,566.4 44.4
DOD 11,507.8 47.0 12,424.0 44.0 12,508.0 44.2
15,664.9
14,637.8
14,281.3
Interest arrears 41.6 0.2 108.7 0.4 58.4 0.2
13,618.8
11,940.1
Bilateral 2,221.2 9.1 2,279.1 8.1 2,273.8 8.0
DOD 1,169.9 4.8 1,166.0 4.1 1,160.8 4.1
9,926.9
8,217.3
Interest arrears 1,051.3 4.3 1,113.1 3.9 1,113.0 3.9
6,714.3
5,682.6
Commercial 8,079.2 33.0 9,470.2 33.5 9,576.9 33.8
4,363.0
3,515.0
DOD 7,453.3 30.4 8,748.0 31.0 8,848.4 31.2
Interest arrears 625.9 2.6 722.2 2.6 728.5 2.6
Export credit 2,633.0 10.8 3,964.4 14.0 3,905.0 13.8
DOD 2,140.6 8.7 3,415.6 12.1 3,351.5 11.8
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Dec-21
Interest arrears 492.4 2.0 548.8 1.9 553.5 2.0
External debt stock 24,482.9 100.0 28,246.4 100.0 28,322.1 100.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of
Tanzania. Tanzania.
Note: DOD denotes disbursed outstanding debt; r, revised; and p,
provisional data.
Table 4.5: Government Domestic Debt by
Table 4.3: External Debt by Use of Funds Borrowing Instruments
Billions of TZS
Millions of USD
Jan-21 Dec-21
r
Jan-22
p Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Activity Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Instruments Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%)
Balance of Payments and budget support 2,654.8 11.9 3,163.4 12.3 3,066.0 11.9
Government securities 15,646.6 99.9 19,893.1 94.2 20,022.5 94.2
Transport and telecommunication 5,916.0 26.6 5,865.8 22.8 5,768.6 22.3
Agriculture 1,385.0 6.2 1,369.0 5.3 1,357.0 5.2 Treasury bills 1,592.9 10.2 1,788.8 8.5 1,909.5 9.0
Energy and mining 3,156.0 14.2 4,086.0 15.9 4,081.0 15.8 Government stocks 252.7 1.6 252.7 1.2 252.7 1.2
Industries 799.0 3.6 899.0 3.5 1,239.0 4.8
Government bonds 13,800.9 88.1 17,851.5 84.5 17,860.2 84.0
Social welfare and education 3,960.3 17.8 4,322.2 16.8 4,207.0 16.3
Finance and insurance 1,142.4 5.1 1,437.0 5.6 1,454.6 5.6 Tax certificates 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Tourism 187.4 0.8 222.6 0.9 247.0 1.0
Non-securitized debt 18.4 0.1 1,228.2 5.8 1,233.6 5.8
Real estate and construction 1,671.0 7.5 1,742.1 6.8 1,855.0 7.2
Other Liabilities* 18.4 0.1 18.4 0.1 18.4 0.1
Other 1,399.8 6.3 2,646.5 10.3 2,593.5 10.0
Total 22,271.7 100.0 25,753.6 100.0 25,868.7 100.0 Overdraft 0.0 0.0 1,209.8 5.7 1,215.2 5.7
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of Total domestic debt
15,664.9 100.0 21,121.3 100.0 21,256.1 100.0
Tanzania. (without liquidity papers)
Note: BOP denotes balance of payments; r, revised and p, Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of
provisional data. Tanzania.
Note: * includes NMB bank Plc standard loan and duty
Table 4.4: Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency drawback.
Composition
r p
Table 4.6: Government Domestic Debt by Creditor
Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Billions of TZS
Currency Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%)
Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
United States Dollar 14,050.0 63.1 17,814.9 69.2 17,857.9 69.0
Euro 3,994.9 17.9 3,843.8 14.9 3,888.2 15.0 Holders Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%) Amount Share (%)
Chinese Yuan 1,669.5 7.5 1,473.0 5.7 1,488.5 5.8 Commercial banks 5,392.6 34.4 6,604.8 31.3 6,685.2 31.5
Other 2,557.3 11.5 2,621.9 10.2 2,634.1 10.2
Bank of Tanzania 1,243.7 7.9 2,305.0 10.9 2,310.4 10.9
Total 22,271.7 100.0 25,753.6 100.0 25,868.7 100.0
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, and Bank of Pension funds 4,890.5 31.2 7,428.9 35.2 7,413.3 34.9
4.2 Domestic Debt Others 2,405.4 15.4 2,941.7 13.9 2,988.2 14.1
Total 15,664.9 100.0 21,121.3 100.0 21,256.1 100.0
Chart 4.2: Government Securities for Financing Table 5.1 Current Account
Purposes Millions of USD
Billions of TZS Year ending January
p
T-Bills Bonds Items Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 2020 2021 2022
Goods account -228.1 -602.7 -546.3 -3,352.4 -1,492.2 -3,581.5
Exports* 433.5 433.5 434.0 5,549.7 6,252.3 6,756.2
Imports 661.6 1,036.2 980.4 8,902.1 7,744.5 10,337.7
Services account 135.60 136.7 93.5 2,383.0 915.1 1,390.8
Receipts 237.2 342.0 311.4 4,219.7 2,129.7 3,226.0
501.8 Payments 101.6 205.2 217.8 1,836.7 1,214.6 1,835.2
321.6 179.3 138.2 395.0 232.0 Goods and services -92.5 -466.0 -452.8 -969.4 -577.1 -2,190.8
Export of goods and services 670.7 775.5 745.4 9,769.4 8,382.0 9,982.2
230.5 311.1
365.4 103.0 Import of goods and services 763.2 1,241.4 1,198.2 10,738.8 8,959.1 12,172.9
146.3 172.4 Primary income account -59.0 -75.7 -140.9 -1,019.8 -873.0 -906.3
265.6
290.2 Receipts 4.9 12.5 12.5 212.6 96.8 110.9
253.6 235.8
188.4 194.5 Payments 63.9 88.2 153.4 1,232.5 969.8 1,017.2
139.5 159.3 153.2
111.3 111.0 103.8
60.3 Secondary income account 48.0 87.1 46.0 450.5 392.6 563.2
37.7
Inflows 52.9 96.4 55.7 504.3 445.5 653.5
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Oct-21
o/w General government 16.1 41.4 0.0 146.5 113.0 88.3
Outflows 4.9 9.3 9.7 53.8 53.0 90.2
Source: Bank of Tanzania. Current account balance -103.4 -454.6 -547.7 -1,538.7 -1,057.5 -2,533.9
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of
Tanzania computations.
5.0 External Sector Note: p denotes provisional data; o/w, of which; and * includes
adjustments for informal cross border export.
Performance
5.1 Exports
The external sector gradually improved during the year
ending January 2022, due to improvement in receipts Exports of goods and services increased to USD
from tourism. The overall balance of payments was 9,982.2 million in the year ending January 2022,
a surplus of USD 1,206.5 million from a deficit of compared to USD 8,382 million in the corresponding
USD 265 million in the corresponding period in 2021, period of 2021. Significant increase was registered in
owing to an increase in foreign financial inflows. The goods exports and travel receipts.
current account recorded a deficit of USD 2,533.9
Exports of goods rose by 8.1 percent to USD 6,756.2
million from a deficit of USD 1,057.5 million, driven
million, with non-traditional goods rising by 8.9
by an increase in imports of goods relative to exports.
percent to USD 5,725.7 million. Much of the increase
Foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD 6,236.7 emanated from exports of cereals, horticultural
million at the end of January 2022, sufficient to cover products and manufactured goods particularly
about 6.5 months of imports. The import cover was in cosmetics, plastics, and iron and steel.
line with the country target of at least 4 months, EAC
Gold exports, which accounted for 39.3 percent
convergence criteria (at least 4.5 months) and SADC
of total goods exports, fell by 10.6 percent to USD
(at least 6 months) (Chart 5.1).
2,656.5 million driven by slowdown in production
Chart 5.1 Foreign Exchange Reserves (Chart 5.2). On a monthly basis, exports of non-
Gross official reserves (LHS) Months of projected imports traditional goods were USD 330.8 million, lower than
Tanzania benchmark (RHS) SADC's benchmark (RHS)
EAC's benchmark (RHS) USD 368.1 million in January 2021. Export value of
8,000 8
7,000 7
traditional goods was USD 657.8 million, down from
6,000 6 USD 698 million in the similar period in 2021. The
5,000 5 decline was due to low export volume of cashew nuts
Months
USD Million
4,000 4
and tobacco. On a monthly basis, traditional exports
3,000 3
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
2020 2021 2022 Imports of goods and services rose by 35.9 percent
to USD 12,172.9 million in the year ending January
2,970.5
2,656.5
576.6
475.0
421.9
409.6
380.6
291.0
212.0
175.5
million, owing to both price and volume effects. Ser-
87.1
Gold Manufactured Traditional Horticultural Cereals Other non- vices payments increased to USD 1,835.2 million
goods exports products traditional
exports from USD 1,214.6 million in the year ending January
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania 2021, on account of a rise in freight payments con-
Computations. sistent with the surge in the import bill (Chart 5.4).
Note: Other minerals mainly include mineral concentrates,
tanzanite and diamond; and other non-traditional exports Month-on-month, services payments increased to
include oil seeds, cereals, cocoa, raw hides and skins, and
wood. USD 217.8 million in January 2022, from USD 101.6
million in January 2021, driven by freight payments.
Services receipts increased to USD 3,226 million,
Table 5.2: Goods Imports
from USD 2,129.7 million in the year ending January
Millions of USD
2021, mainly supported by travel and transport Year ending Jan
Percentage
contribution, year
the number of international tourist arrivals by 66.2 Electrical machinery and equipment
Other capital goods
16.9
15.3
35.2
20.5
23.6
18.7
261.3
236.5
294.3
217.1
2.8
2.1
percent to 943,008, reflecting steady recovery in Intermediate goods 451.3 765.3 747.3 5,208.1 7,400.1 71.6
Industrial supplies 226.6 357.6 382.5 2,662.5 3,532.3 34.2
tourism. On a monthly basis, services receipts were O/w Iron and steel and articles thereof 66.3 103.3 104.7 674.7 921.5 8.9
Plastic and articles thereof 35.9 58.3 78.0 415.5 632.3 6.1
in January 2021, where travel receipts accounted for o/w Refined white products
Parts and accessories
101.8
65.1
237.1
87.7
176.0
112.5
1,083.9
721.6
2,016.6
916.6
19.5
8.9
the majority of the increase. Food and beverages for industrial use
Wheat grain
22.3
2.5
51.9
20.4
50.9
20.7
426.4
148.6
615.0
223.1
6.0
2.2
Edible oil and its fractions not refined 9.0 18.5 11.2 141.6 201.5 1.9
Chart 5.3: Services Receipts by Category Sugar for industrial use 8.1 7.2 7.7 68.2 109.3 1.1
Millions of USD Motor cars for household 34.6 22.6 18.9 220.4 207.3 2.0
Year ending January Consumer goods 92.4 104.0 101.1 1,051.6 1,199.2 11.6
Food and beverages mainly for household consumption 8.1 13.0 11.9 119.6 171.3 1.7
2020 2021 2022
2,551.7
1,430.0
1,357.0
1,264.6
183.0
855.2
Year ending
January
Percent Percent
710.8
697.5
Commodity Unit of measure Dec-21 Jan-22 change 2021 2022 change
653.2
Crude oil* USD per barrel 74.3 85.5 15.1 41.5 73.0 75.8
563.5
Crude oil** USD per barrel 72.8 83.1 14.2 41.4 71.2 72.2
497.5
486.0
White products*** USD per tonne 675.8 776.9 15.0 366.9 655.8 78.8
Sisal under grade (UG) USD per kg 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.3
Cotton, "A Index" USD per kg 2.6 2.9 10.0 1.6 2.3 44.5
269.2
Robusta Coffee USD per kg 2.5 2.4 -2.4 1.5 2.1 35.4
153.5
Arabica Coffee USD per kg 5.9 6.0 1.1 3.4 4.7 40.4
Tea (Average prices) USD per kg 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.7 2.7 -0.3
Tea (Mombasa auction)USD per kg 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.2 9.2
Cloves USD per kg 8.0 8.2 1.7 5.8 7.8 35.0
Travel Transport Other services Gold USD per troy ounce 1,790.4 1,816.0 1.4 1,795.8 1,795.4 0.0
Source : www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-
Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. markets, Bloomberg and Tanzania Sisal Board
Note: Other services include construction, insurance, Note: * denotes crude oil Brent; ** crude oil Dubai f.o.b;
financial, telecommunication, computer and information, and *** average of jet/kerosene, premium gasoline and
government, personal and other business services. heat oil
in January 2022, owing to tight supplies and rising and narcotics 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Clothing and footwear 6.9 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.7 1.8
demand coupled with geopolitical tensions between Housing, water, electricity, gas
and other fuels 18.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.4 -1.1 3.7 5.4
Ukraine and Russia that exerted additional pressure Furnishing, household equipment 5.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.5
on oil prices. Gold prices increased to USD 1,816 in Health 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 1.8 1.8
Transport 9.6 -0.2 1.7 0.0 -4.9 7.7 8
January 2022, owing to rising inflation that lowered the
Communication 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.7
treasury yields in the United States. Prices of coffee, Recreation and culture 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 1.3 1.3
cotton and other agricultural products continued to Education 1.9 10.3 0.0 0.0 10.3 10.7 0.3
Restaurants and hotels 3.9 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6
rise due to supply concerns. Miscellaneous goods and
services 2.3 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.8 10.6
2.4 2.8
On annual basis, prices of all commodities increased All items (Headline inflation) 100.0 1.1 0.4 1.5 0.5
Selected groups
(Table 5.3). Higher prices for oil and other agricultural Food 42.7 2.7 0.7 3.2 1.3 0.0 0.6
commodities particularly coffee and cotton was due Non-food 57.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.2 4.2 4.4
Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician
to recovering demand coupled with persistent supply
shortages since the second half of 2021. Gold prices
1 Petroleum products include kerosene, diesel and petrol
11 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
58.2
8
41.5
36.8
4
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.6
28.4
2
9.5
-2
Jan-19
May-19
Jan-20
May-20
Jan-21
May-21
Jan-22
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Wages and salaries Other recurrent expenditure Development expenditure
Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician Source: President’s Office, Finance and Planning, Zanzibar
Note: ‘Other recurrent expenditure’ includes transfers, domestic
debt interest payments, consolidated fund service and
6.2 Government Budgetary other charges
Operations
In January 2022, revenue collection amounted to 6.3 External Sector
TZS 77.5 billion, equivalent to 75.8 percent of the Performance
target. Domestic revenue was TZS 74.6 billion while
grants were TZS 2.9 billion. Tax revenue was TZS 6.3.1 Current Account
62.2 billion, representing an increase of 24.2 percent
During the year ending January 2022, current ac-
from the amount recorded in January 2021, whereas
count balance widened to a deficit of USD 237.1
non-tax revenue was TZS 12.3 billion (Chart 6.2).
million from a deficit of USD 213.7 million registered
Chart 6.2: Government Resources during the corresponding period in 2021. This was
Billions of TZS
Actual Jan-21 Target Jan-22 Actual Jan-22
largely attributed to an increase in imports of goods
(Table 6.2).
29.3
P p
17.3
14.9
14.8
14.4
13.6
13.0
12.8
12.3
Source: President’s Office, Finance and Planning, Zanzibar Imports of goods and services 30.3 41.9 38.7 427.4 440.7
Note: Other taxes include hotel and restaurant levies, tour Primary Income account (net) 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.7 4.3
operator levy, revenue stamps, airport and seaport service Receipts 0.6 0.4 0.2 17.3 8.3
charges, road development fund and petroleum levy. Payments 0.5 0.2 0.1 7.6 4.0
Secondary income (net) -0.2 0.0 0.2 103.7 9.4
Expenditure was TZS 104.8 billion, of which recurrent Inflows 0.4 0.3 0.4 113.1 15.6
Outflows 0.6 0.3 0.2 9.4 6.2
expenditure was TZS 63.2 billion, below the estimates Current account balance -15.5 -30.1 -15.3 -213.7 -237.1
by 0.6 percent. Wages and salaries accounted for 55.1 Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks and Bank of
Tanzania computations
percent of the recurrent expenditure. Development Note: p denotes provisional data; and fob, free on board
expenditure was TZS 41.5 billion, exceeding the
projection by 12.8 percent. Local sources spent 6.3.2 Exports
for development projects amounted to TZS 22.1 Exports of goods and services increased to USD
billion and the balance was from foreign resources. 189.9 million from USD 100.3 million recorded in the
An overall deficit of TZS 17 billion was realized in year ending January 2021, driven by growth in service
January 2022, which was financed through program receipts in particular tourism, coupled with increase in
loans (Chart 6.3). goods exports (Table 6.2). Service receipts increased
BOT Monthly Economic Review 12
February 2022
by 52.4 percent to USD 109.3 million, while cloves Table 6.4: Imports of Goods
Millions of USD
exports rose to USD 59.7 million from USD 6.5 million Year ending January Percentage
P P p
Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 2021 2022 change
earned in the year ending January 2021 (Table 6.3). Capital goods 5.6 11.0 6.5 159.4 92.0 -42.3
On month-to-month basis, goods exports rose to Transport equipment 1.6 1.1 1.3 33.5 24.2 -27.9
Building and construction 0.9 5.2 3.6 27.1 31.8 17.2
USD 10.9 million in January 2022 compared to USD Machinery 3.1 4.7 1.5 98.8 36.1 -63.5
0.5 million in January 2021 and USD 0.5 million in Intermediate goods 9.9 14.9 15.2 71.4 142.9 --
Oil imports 6.9 8.2 9.7 44.7 85.0 90.1
December 2021. Industrial raw materials 3.0 6.7 5.4 26.7 58.0 --
Consumer goods 7.5 9.1 11.1 91.2 105.6 15.8
Table 6.3: Exports of Goods Food and food stuffs 3.1 1.1 5.5 34.4 38.3 11.4
Year ending January All other consumer goods 4.4 8.0 5.6 56.8 67.3 18.5
Percentage
P P p
Units Jan-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 2021 2022 change
Grand total (c.i.f) 25.3 38.5 36.0 353.8 374.3 5.8
Traditional exports
Grand total (f.o.b) 23.0 35.0 32.7 322.0 340.6 5.8
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania
Clove
Value '000' of USD 0.0 0.1 9,360.0 6,479.9 59,739.9 --
Volume '000' Tonnes 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 8.0 --
computations
Unit price USD/Tonne -- -- 7,200.0 5,225.7 7,439.6 42.4
Note: p denotes provisional data; “---“, change that exceeds
Non-traditional exports 100 percent; c.i.f., cost, insurance and freight; and f.o.b.,
Seaweeds free on board.
Value '000' of USD 154.1 460.2 1,310.0 13,608.8 6,330.9 -53.5
Volume '000' Tonnes 0.5 0.9 3.3 16.7 15.3 -8.6
Unit price USD/Tonne 307.6 497.1 397.0 813.9 414.3 -49.1
Manufactured goods '000' of USD 240.2 0.4 120.0 4,828.6 7,634.4 58.1
Fish and fish products '000' of USD 123.9 0.1 120.0 1,363.6 2,005.1 47.0
Others exports '000' of USD 19.3 0.4 20.0 2,314.9 4,850.5 --
Sub-total '000' of USD 537.5 461.1 1,570.0 22,115.9 20,820.9 -5.9
Grand-total USD ('000') 537.5 461.2 10,930.0 28,595.8 80,560.8 181.7
Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania
computations.
Note: Other exports mainly include souvenirs and spices; p,
denotes provisional data; and “---“, change that exceeds
100 percent.
6.3.3 Imports
Imports of goods and services amounted to USD
440.7 million in the year ending January 2022, up
from USD 427.4 million in the corresponding period in
2021 (Table 6.2). The increase was more pronounced
in imports of intermediate and consumer goods.
Much of the rise in imports of intermediate goods
was observed in oil and industrial raw materials,
while for consumer goods were dominated by food
and food stuffs. Capital goods imports declined by
42.3 percent. Oil imports increased by 90.1 percent
to USD 85.0 million, largely on account of high prices
in world market. On month-to-month basis, imports
(f.o.b) amounted to USD 32.7 million in January
2022 compared to USD 23 million in January 2021
and USD 35 million in December 2021. Imports of
intermediate and consumer goods increased from
the corresponding period of the previous year due to
recovery in economic activity (Table 6.4).
13 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
Statistical Tables
Table A1: Selected Economic Indicators
Balance of payments
3.1 Exports of goods (f.o.b) Mill. USD 4,510.8 4,292.7 5,377.6 6,371.7 6,755.6
3.2 Imports of goods (f.o.b) Mill. USD -7,551.7 -8,298.6 -8,793.1 -7,656.7 -10,018.7
3.3 Trade balance Mill. USD -3,041.0 -4,005.9 -3,415.5 -1,285.0 -3,263.1
3.4 Current account balance Mill. USD -1,827.1 -2,050.2 -1,490.9 -994.8 -2,089.4
3.5 Overall balance Mill. USD 1,669.6 -784.0 587.0 -764.9 1,852.1
3.6 Gross official reserves Mill. USD 5,900.3 5,044.6 5,567.6 4,767.7 6,386.0
3.7 Reserves months of imports (of goods and services)
(excluding FDI related imports) Months 6.6 4.9 6.4 5.6 6.6
3.8 Exchange rate:
Annual average TZS/USD 2,228.9 2,263.8 2,288.2 2,294.1 2,297.8
End of period TZS/USD 2,230.1 2,281.2 2,287.9 2,298.5 2,297.6
r
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22p
Public finance
1
4.1 Current revenue to GDP ratio Percent 14.6 13.9 14.6 13.3 n.a
1
4.2 Grants to GDP ratio Percent 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.5 n.a
1
4.3 Current expenditure to GDP ratio Percent 10.1 10.4 9.9 9.6 n.a
4.4 Development expenditure to GDP ratio 1 Percent 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.6 n.a
1
4.5 Budget balance to GDP ratio (excluding grants) Percent 2.0 2.8 2.2 3.9 n.a
1,3
4.5 Overall Budget balance to GDP ratio Percent -1.9 -3.2 -1.9 -3.9 n.a
Total external debt stock Mill. USD 20,503.0 21,920.9 22,952.7 25,519.3 n.a
5.1 Disbursed debt Mill. USD 18,765.1 20,029.3 20,958.4 23,250.9 n.a
5.2 Interest Arrears Mill. USD 1,737.9 1,891.7 1,994.3 2,268.4 n.a
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning; Bank of Tanzania; and Tanzania Revenue Authority
Note: 1 Calculated on the basis of GDP at current market prices; 2 annual average; 3 includes grants, expenditure float, adjustment to cash and other items (net); GDP
denotes gross domestic product; GNDI, gross national disposable income; r, revised data; p, provisional data and n.a, not available
The National Bureau of Statistics has revised national account statistics using 2015 as the base year. Also n.a means not available.
BOT Monthly Economic Review 14
February 2022
Development expenditure and net lending 13,678,946.3 8,690,999 8,084,533 984,171 1,281,159
Local 10,723,023.0 7,320,488 6,327,092 830,828 937,604
Foreign 2,955,923.3 1,370,511 1,757,441 153,343 343,555
Balance before grants -4,095,472.2 -3,847,966 -3,905,410 -343,458 -490,220
Grants 1,138,076.3 588,762 508,360 70,335 296
Program 0.0 0 52,186 0 0
Project 915,506.3 474,529 405,768 55,316 296
Basket funds 222,570.0 114,233 50,405 15,020 0
Balance (cheques issued) after grants -2,957,395.9 -3,259,205 -3,397,051 -273,122 -489,924
Expenditure float 0.0 0 -2 0 0
Adjustments to cash and other items (net) 0.0 0 -78,495 0 7,964
Overall balance -2,957,395.9 -3,259,205 -3,475,548 -273,122 -481,959
Financing 2,957,395.9 3,259,205 3,475,548 273,122 481,959
Foreign financing (net) 1,118,599.7 1,343,975 2,787,341 -153,229 444,797
Loans 4,169,954.0 3,133,856 4,294,260 83,007 600,656
Program loans 0.0 0 1,310,650 0 0
Development project loans 4,110,218.0 3,114,107 2,976,850 83,007 600,656
o/w: Non-concessional borrowing 2,352,106.9 2,352,107 1,639,658 0 257,397
Basket support 59,736.0 19,750 6,760 0 0
Amortization -3,051,354.3 -1,789,881 -1,506,919 -236,236 -155,859
2
Domestic (net) 1,838,796.2 1,915,230 688,207 426,351 37,162
Bank and non-bank financing 1,838,796.2 1,915,230 688,207 426,351 37,162
Bank borrowing 1,638,796.2 1,706,916 105,506 379,978 32,349
Non-bank (net of amortization) 200,000.1 208,313 582,701 46,373 4,813
Borrowing/roll-over 3,150,336.7 1,478,227 1,545,385 272,714 273,714
Domestic and contingent debt amortization -3,150,336.7 -1,478,227 -1,545,385 -272,714 -273,714
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning
1
Note: Exclude amortization and expenditure float, includes road fund and retention expenditure
2
Positive value means financing and a negative value means repayment/ build up of deposits
LGA stands for Local Government Authority; VAT, value added tax
Net foreign assets 11,862.2 11,517.5 11,307.8 10,595.2 11,778.3 12,144.6 12,757.9 12,751.4 14,129.9 13,754.6 12,715.9 13,966.0 13,201.8
Bank of Tanzania 11,389.7 11,371.9 11,076.2 10,890.8 11,312.0 11,700.7 12,367.1 11,940.4 13,960.7 13,424.5 13,058.5 13,219.1 12,979.8
February 2022
Other depository corporations 472.6 145.6 231.6 -295.7 466.3 443.9 390.8 811.0 169.2 330.1 -342.6 746.8 222.0
Net domestic assets 18,061.6 18,289.1 18,850.6 20,406.8 19,547.5 21,189.2 19,810.3 20,222.6 19,036.6 19,986.8 21,311.5 20,592.1 21,193.8
Domestic claims 25,161.9 25,154.5 26,240.4 27,514.9 26,895.3 28,214.7 27,408.5 28,011.1 26,973.8 28,121.3 29,680.7 30,030.5 30,081.5
Claims on central government (net) 4,838.4 4,755.4 5,762.6 6,855.2 6,187.3 7,613.2 6,675.9 7,041.5 5,846.4 6,719.7 7,700.7 7,686.4 7,718.7
Claims on central government 12,081.2 12,506.0 13,162.8 13,902.0 13,663.0 12,670.5 12,509.0 12,993.6 13,321.4 14,215.4 14,614.1 14,775.4 14,820.5
BOT Monthly Economic Review
Liabilities to central government 7,242.8 7,750.6 7,400.2 7,046.7 7,475.7 5,057.3 5,833.1 5,952.1 7,475.0 7,495.7 6,913.4 7,089.0 7,101.7
Claims on non-government sector 20,323.5 20,399.0 20,477.8 20,659.7 20,708.0 20,601.5 20,732.6 20,969.6 21,127.4 21,401.6 21,980.0 22,344.1 22,362.7
Other items (net) -7,100.4 -6,865.3 -7,389.8 -7,108.0 -7,347.8 -7,025.5 -7,598.2 -7,788.5 -7,937.2 -8,134.5 -8,369.1 -9,438.4 -8,887.7
Broad money liabilities 29,923.8 29,806.6 30,158.4 31,002.0 31,325.9 33,333.8 32,568.2 32,974.0 33,166.6 33,741.5 34,027.5 34,558.0 34,395.6
Currency outside depository corporations 4,198.7 4,326.7 4,299.2 4,359.0 4,404.5 4,700.5 4,811.7 4,945.0 4,963.9 5,034.0 4,996.5 5,012.0 4,798.6
Transferable deposits 14,429.6 14,500.6 14,691.8 15,158.3 15,553.3 16,793.2 16,120.4 16,318.0 16,453.6 16,559.3 16,879.9 17,421.4 17,483.2
Non-transferable (other) deposits 11,295.5 10,979.2 11,167.4 11,484.7 11,368.1 11,840.2 11,636.1 11,711.0 11,749.1 12,148.2 12,151.1 12,124.7 12,113.8
Memorandum Items:
Monetary aggregates
Reserve money (M0) 7,105.6 6,935.5 7,221.1 7,703.0 7,477.5 8,568.2 7,990.1 7,785.7 8,110.0 8,189.2 8,398.7 8,407.3 8,286.2
Extended broad money (M3) 29,923.8 29,806.6 30,158.4 31,002.0 31,325.9 33,333.8 32,568.2 32,974.0 33,166.6 33,741.5 34,027.5 34,558.0 34,395.6
Deposits in foreign Currency (FCD) 7,167.5 7,042.6 7,166.6 7,416.5 7,479.7 7,678.4 7,255.6 7,474.0 7,532.5 7,371.7 7,192.9 7,469.7 7,333.4
FCD in millions of USD 3,118.4 3,064.0 3,117.9 3,226.6 3,254.0 3,339.9 3,155.7 3,250.2 3,279.4 3,214.2 3,136.3 3,251.1 3,191.0
Broad money (M2) 22,756.3 22,764.0 22,991.8 23,585.5 23,846.2 25,655.4 25,312.6 25,500.0 25,634.1 26,369.8 26,834.6 27,088.4 27,062.2
Other deposits in national currency (i.e.
savings and time deposits) 8,535.1 8,337.8 8,487.9 8,633.6 8,737.9 8,945.5 8,940.1 8,964.4 9,036.8 9,378.6 9,424.7 9,462.8 9,410.7
Narrow money (M1) 14,221.1 14,426.2 14,504.0 14,951.9 15,108.3 16,710.0 16,372.5 16,535.6 16,597.3 16,991.2 17,409.9 17,625.5 17,651.5
Currency in circulation 4,198.7 4,326.7 4,299.2 4,359.0 4,404.5 4,700.5 4,811.7 4,945.0 4,963.9 5,034.0 4,996.5 5,012.0 4,798.6
Transferable deposits in national currency 10,022.5 10,099.5 10,204.8 10,592.9 10,703.7 12,009.5 11,560.8 11,590.6 11,633.4 11,957.1 12,413.4 12,613.5 12,852.9
Source: Bank of Tanzania
BOT Monthly Economic Review 16
February 2022
7. Discount rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
8. Savings deposit rate 2.50 2.53 2.57 2.16 2.15 2.16 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.52 1.61 1.60 1.61
9. Overall time deposits rate 6.68 6.88 6.94 6.95 6.89 7.05 7.35 6.64 6.60 6.64 6.80 6.79 6.79
1 month 9.09 9.70 6.99 7.48 7.35 7.16 7.97 7.12 6.36 7.57 6.80 7.06 6.86
2 months 6.16 7.42 7.61 7.72 7.20 7.98 7.86 6.81 7.48 6.70 7.18 7.04 6.62
3 months 7.53 5.33 7.61 6.78 7.39 7.32 7.48 6.88 6.57 6.73 7.11 6.59 7.00
6 months 6.37 7.32 7.86 8.23 8.17 8.26 8.06 7.00 7.27 7.33 7.70 7.50 7.56
12 months 8.23 8.67 8.80 8.77 8.75 8.69 9.12 7.86 7.72 7.77 7.63 7.87 7.87
24 months 8.50 8.67 8.52 8.62 8.16 8.81 8.95 8.89 8.92 8.52 9.17 9.44 9.66
10. Negotiated deposit rate 9.22 9.50 9.18 9.36 9.23 9.37 9.17 9.66 9.59 9.71 9.78 9.82 9.92
11. Overall lending rate 16.63 16.66 16.61 16.58 16.61 16.69 16.57 16.75 16.55 16.65 16.40 16.37 16.30
Short-term (up to 1year) 15.76 15.88 15.97 16.05 16.14 16.76 16.81 16.89 16.69 16.75 16.83 16.60 16.70
Medium-term (1-2 years) 18.51 18.40 18.36 18.34 18.30 17.98 17.70 17.95 17.92 18.01 17.59 17.49 17.58
Medium-term (2-3 years) 16.85 17.00 16.82 16.59 16.69 16.78 16.76 16.85 16.54 16.84 16.50 16.58 16.25
Long-term (3-5 years) 16.06 16.07 16.06 16.13 16.10 16.04 16.01 16.11 15.95 16.01 15.74 15.84 15.79
Term Loans (over 5 years) 15.99 15.92 15.85 15.82 15.82 15.91 15.59 15.96 15.66 15.63 15.34 15.32 15.20
12. Negotiated lending rate 13.38 13.96 14.05 13.76 13.64 13.98 13.83 14.44 14.07 13.65 13.66 14.06 13.68
B: Foreign currency
1. Deposits rates
Savings deposits rate 0.79 0.92 0.91 0.41 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.33
Overall time deposits rate 2.39 2.33 2.57 3.21 3.42 3.27 3.06 3.15 3.23 3.24 3.21 4.21 3.48
1-months 1.73 1.77 3.06 3.09 4.45 3.09 3.04 3.06 3.05 3.34 3.12 2.34 3.59
2-months 2.68 2.44 2.19 3.82 3.43 3.98 3.31 3.61 3.82 3.05 2.33 4.06 3.24
3-months 2.70 2.66 2.63 2.80 2.99 3.18 2.08 2.21 2.41 2.59 3.40 3.99 3.27
6-months 1.75 1.72 2.16 3.16 3.10 3.00 3.27 3.45 3.50 3.46 3.44 5.83 3.78
12-months deposit rate 3.09 3.06 2.83 3.20 3.14 3.10 3.58 3.40 3.37 3.76 3.79 4.82 3.53
2. Overall lending rate 6.84 6.83 7.46 8.10 8.19 8.22 8.19 8.17 8.18 8.15 8.23 8.22 8.17
Short-term (up to 1year) 8.41 8.96 8.31 8.88 8.63 8.78 8.73 8.62 8.64 8.65 8.88 8.90 8.62
Medium-term (1-2 years) 4.50 4.00 7.53 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.72 8.72 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.73 8.74
Medium-term (2-3 years) 5.33 5.20 6.84 6.52 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07
Long-term (3-5 years) 8.98 8.99 7.21 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.86 8.72 8.88 8.88 8.88
Term loans (over 5 years) 6.98 6.99 7.40 7.40 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.54 7.54 7.54
Note: p denotes Provisional data.
Commercial bank rates have been revised from November 2012 backwards
Source: Bank of Tanzania
17 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
Aug 3.8 3.6 2.4 4.7 4.2 3.1 2.8 5.7 1.8 2.3 1.1 5.0 0.3 2.8
Sep 4.0 4.0 2.4 4.8 4.1 3.2 2.8 5.9 1.8 4.1 1.1 5.0 0.3 2.8
Oct 4.0 3.9 2.5 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.9 5.6 1.9 3.7 1.1 5.0 0.3 2.9
Nov 4.1 4.4 2.7 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.0 5.4 1.4 3.8 1.1 5.3 0.3 3.5
Dec 4.2 4.9 2.2 4.5 3.9 4.1 2.9 5.9 1.5 3.8 1.1 4.9 0.3 3.5
2022-Jan 4.0 6.3 1.9 3.1 3.5 3.0 1.9 4.4 1.3 1.9 1.0 3.7 0.3 2.2
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Note: r denotes revised data
February 2022
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19 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
Base: 2020=100
All items less
Energy, fuel food and non-
and utilities Services Education services alcoholic
Period Core index Non-core Index index index Goods index and products beverages
Weight (%) 73.9 26.1 5.7 37.2 62.8 4.1 71.8
2021-Jan 3.8 1.5 1.6 2.9 3.4 2.5 3.8
Feb 3.6 2.1 1.4 2.3 3.7 2.5 3.2
Mar 3.6 2.5 1.1 1.9 4.1 2.7 2.7
Apr 3.5 3.1 2.3 2.1 4.2 3.2 2.7
May 3.7 2.8 2.1 2.3 4.1 3.2 2.7
Jun 4.0 2.7 3.2 3.0 4.1 3.1 3.2
Jul 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.1 4.3 3.3 3.3
Food and non- Alcoholic Housing, water, Furnishings, household Restaurants and Insurance Personal care, social
Headline alcoholic beverages and Clothing and electricity, gas and other equipment and routine Information and Recreation, sport Education accommodation and financial protection and miscellaneous
Period overall index beverages tobacco footwear fuels household maintenance Health Transport communication and culture services services services goods and services
Weight (%) 100.0 28.2 1.9 10.8 15.1 7.9 2.5 14.1 5.4 1.6 2.0 6.6 2.1 2.1
2021-Jan 0.8 -0.4 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 0.2 3.2 0.3 1.6 0.1 2.2
Feb 0.9 1.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.3
Mar 0.9 1.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.1
Apr 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
May 0.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jun 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2
Jul 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Aug -0.5 -2.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Sep -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Oct -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nov 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
Dec 0.8 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2022-Jan 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
February 2022
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21 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
Table A6(iv): National Consumer Price Index (Urban and Rural), Month-on-Month
Percentage Change (Other Selected Groups), New Series
Base: Dec 2020 = 100
Note: Data for actual debt service and disbursement is revised from July 2021. Multilateral arrears are those ow ed by the private sector. 1 denotes debt flow s during the period and 2 denotes stock position at the end of period.
r Debt position is revised. p Debt position is provisional.
23 BOT Monthly Economic Review
February 2022
Glossary
Broad money (M2) Food inflation
A definition of money that comprises narrow money This is a measure of the rate of change of price of
(M1) plus domestic currency time and savings food both processed and unprocessed.
deposits of residents with banks in the country.
Gross official reserves
Currency in circulation outside banks
Notes and coins of Tanzanian shillings circulating Gross official reserves consist of external assets that
outside the banking system, i.e., outside the Bank of are readily available to, and controlled by the Bank of
Tanzania and other depository corporations. Tanzania for direct financing of balance of payments,
and for indirectly regulating the magnitude of balance
Core inflation of payments imbalances through intervention in
This measures the rate of change in prices of foreign exchange markets. Gross official reserves
goods and services other than energy, utilities and comprise the Bank of Tanzania’s holdings of monetary
unprocessed food, over a specified period of time. gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), reserve
The unprocessed food items, energy and utilities position in the International Monetary Fund, and
are excluded since they are volatile and hence may foreign exchange resources, available to the Bank of
be affected by non-monetary events, which do not Tanzania for meeting external financing needs.
constitute the underlying monetary inflation.
Inflation
Disbursed outstanding debt The rate at which the average level of prices of a
This is the amount of debt that has been disbursed basket of selected goods and services in an economy
but yet to be paid back or forgiven. is increasing over a period of time. It is often expressed
as a percentage. Inflation indicates a decrease in the
Discount rate
purchasing power of a nation’s currency.
The rate of interest that the Bank of Tanzania charges
on loans it extends to banks. It uses Treasury bills Interbank cash market
rate as a base plus a loaded factor, which can be A money market in which banks extend loans to
changed from time to time depending on the liquidity one another for a specified term of not more than
situation in the market. 90 days. Each transaction represents an agreement
Exchange rate between the banks to exchange the agreed amounts
The price at which one unit of a currency can be pur- of currency at the specified rate on a fixed date.
chased with another currency, for instance TZS per
US dollar. Lombard facility
An overnight facility established to enable banks
Extended broad money (M3)
to borrow from the Bank of Tanzania at their own
A definition of money that consists of broad money
discretion, by pledging eligible government securities
(M2) plus foreign currency deposits of residents with
as collateral.
banks in the country.
Lombard rate
External debt stock
The rate the Bank of Tanzania charges a bank for
The stock of a country’s debt that is borrowed from
borrowing through the use of a Lombard Facility. This
foreign lenders through private commercial banks,
rate is computed based on the prevailing weighted
foreign governments, or international financial
average yield of 35-day T-bill, repo or overnight inter-
institutions. It is the sum of public, publicly guaranteed,
bank rate, whichever is higher in the market plus a
and private non-guaranteed long-term debt, use of
margin.
IMF credit, and short-term debt, which includes all
debt having an original maturity of one year or less
and interest in arrears on long-term debt.
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February 2022
TANZANIA