Example

Time Period t Sales Observation Predicted Sales Residuals

2011.1 1 11 1 12.2941176471 -1.2941176471
2011.2 2 15 2 12.6882352941 2.3117647059
2011.3 3 12 3 13.0823529412 -1.0823529412
2011.4 4 14 4 13.4764705882 0.5235294118
2012.1 5 12 5 13.8705882353 -1.8705882353
2012.2 6 17 6 14.2647058824 2.7352941176
2012.3 7 13 7 14.6588235294 -1.6588235294
2012.4 8 16 8 15.0529411765 0.9470588235
2013.1 9 14 9 15.4470588235 -1.4470588235
2013.2 10 18 10 15.8411764706 2.1588235294
2013.3 11 15 11 16.2352941176 -1.2352941176
2013.4 12 17 12 16.6294117647 0.3705882353
2014.1 13 15 13 17.0235294118 -2.0235294118
2014.2 14 20 14 17.4176470588 2.5823529412
2014.3 15 16 15 17.8117647059 -1.8117647059
2014.4 16 19 16 18.2058823529 0.7941176471
2015.1 17 18.6
2015.2 18 18.9941176471
2015.3 19 19.3882352941
2015.4 20 19.7823529412
2016.1 21 20.1764705882
2016.2 22 20.5705882353

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.73037809985
R Square 0.53345216875
Adjusted R Square 0.50012732366
Standard Error 1.81635890282
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 52.8117647059 52.8117647059 16.007641365
Residual 14 46.1882352941 3.29915966387
Total 15 99

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 11.9 0.95250664437 12.4933511702 5.5671047E-09
t 0.39411764706 0.09850589209 4.00095505664 0.0013135868
Detrended Sales Time Period Sales Predicted Sales
0.89 2011.1 11 12.3
1.18 2011.2 15 12.7
0.92 2011.3 12 13.1
1.04 2011.4 14 13.5
0.87 2012.1 12 13.9
1.19 2012.2 17 14.3
0.89 2012.3 13 14.7
1.06 2012.4 16 15.1
0.91 2013.1 14 15.4
1.14 2013.2 18 15.8
0.92 2013.3 15 16.2
1.02 2013.4 17 16.6
0.88 2014.1 15 17.0
1.15 2014.2 20 17.4
0.90 2014.3 16 17.8
1.04 2014.4 19 18.2

Significance F
0.001313586805

Lower 95% Upper 95%

9.8570764290087 13.942923571
0.1828435210268 0.6053917731
Example
Time Period t Sales lnSt St = 12.01313(1.026)^t
2011.1 1 11 2.397895 12.325338
2011.2 2 15 2.70805 12.645796788
2011.3 3 12 2.484907 12.974587504488
2011.4 4 14 2.639057 13.3119267796047
2012.1 5 12 2.484907 13.6580368758744
2012.2 6 17 2.833213 14.0131458346471
2012.3 7 13 2.564949 14.377487626348
2012.4 8 16 2.772589 14.751302304633
2013.1 9 14 2.639057 15.1348361645535
2013.2 10 18 2.890372 15.5283419048319
2013.3 11 15 2.70805 15.9320787943575
2013.4 12 17 2.833213 16.3463128430108
2014.1 13 15 2.70805 16.7713169769291
2014.2 14 20 2.995732 17.2073712183292
2014.3 15 16 2.772589 17.6547628700058
2014.4 16 19 2.944439 18.1137867046259
2015.1 17
2015.2 18
2015.3 19
2015.4 20
2016.1 21
2016.2 22

St = S0(1+g)^t SUMMARY OUTPUT

lnSt = LnS0+tln(1+g)
lnSt = 2.486+0.0264t Regression Statistics
St = 12.01313(1.026)^t Multiple R 0.735421
R Square 0.540844
Adjusted R Square 0.508047
Standard Error 0.119742
Observations 16

ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 14
Total 15

Coefficients
Intercept 2.486914
t 0.026371

antilog(2.486) 12.01313
antilog(0.026371) 1.026722
 SS MS F Significance F
0.236445 0.236445 16.4907 0.001168
0.200733 0.014338
0.437178

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
0.062793 39.60489 8.917E-16 2.352236 2.621592 2.352236 2.621592
0.006494 4.060874 0.001168 0.012443 0.040299 0.012443 0.040299

S0
(1+g)
 Time Period 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4 2012.1 2012.2 2012.3 2012.4 2013.1
Sales 11 15 12 14 12 17 13 16 14
Predicted Sales 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
.1 .2 .3 .4 .1 .2 .3 .
011 011 011 011 012 012 012 012
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Predicted S
 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 2014.2 2014.3 2014.4
18 15 17 15 20 16 19
15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2

.3 .4 .1 .2 .3 .4 .1 .2 .3 .4 .1 .2 .3 .4
011 012 012 012 012 013 013 013 013 014 014 014 014
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Predicted Sales Sales

Time Period 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4 2012.1 2012.2 2012.3 2012.4 2013.1
Sales 11 15 12 14 12 17 13 16 14
MA_3 #N/A #N/A 12.66667 13.66667 12.66667 14.33333 14 15.33333 14.33333
MA_5 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 12.8 14 13.6 14.4 14.4

Moving Average
25

20

15
Value

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Data Point
 2013.2 2013.3 2013.4 2014.1 2014.2 2014.3 2014.4
18 15 17 15 20 16 19
16 15.66667 16.66667 15.66667 17.33333 17 18.33333
15.6 15.2 16 15.8 17 16.6 17.4

Moving Average

Actual
MA_3
MA_5

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Data Point
 Exp Smoothing Exp Smoothing w=0.9; alpha=0.1 w=0.7; alpha=0.3
Time Period t Sales w=0.9; alpha=0.1 w=0.7; alpha=0.3 SUM(A-F)^2 SUM(A-F)^2
2011.1 1 11 #N/A #N/A
2011.2 2 15 11.00 11.00 16.00 1.00
2011.3 3 12 11.40 12.20 0.36 135.49
2011.4 4 14 11.46 12.14 6.45 56.98
2012.1 5 12 11.71 12.70 0.08 142.04
2012.2 6 17 11.74 12.49 27.64 113.22
2012.3 7 13 12.27 13.84 0.54 155.37
2012.4 8 16 12.34 13.59 13.38 6.84
2013.1 9 14 12.71 14.31 1.67 152.01
2013.2 10 18 12.84 14.22 26.66 75.00
2013.3 11 15 13.35 15.35 2.71 150.98
2013.4 12 17 13.52 15.25 12.13 23.75
2014.1 13 15 13.87 15.77 1.29 188.07
2014.2 14 20 13.98 15.54 36.25 264.02
2014.3 15 16 14.58 16.88 2.01 195.65
2014.4 16 19 14.72 16.62 18.29 0.50
11.03 110.73
RMSE 3.32 10.52
 Exponential Smoothing
25

20

15
Sales
w=0.9; alpha
Value

10 w=0.7; alpha

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Data Point
 Sales
w=0.9; alpha=0.1
w=0.7; alpha=0.3

15 16