As it happened: Stubb wins presidency

That's a wrap

Finland's next president will be Alexander Stubb, the centre-right candidate who was the favourite since entering the race late last summer. In the second round he defeated his rival Pekka Haavisto, a green running as an independent, by 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent. The president has a role in foreign and defence policy, but not in the day-to-day running of government. On his victory, Stubb told international media that he wanted to put Finland in the 'core' of Nato. ”I want to continue Niinistö's line, but it's understandable that a new era is beginning,” said Stubb. ”We are a Nato member and the post-Cold War era has ended.” The margin was closer than polls suggested, but not close enough to put the result in doubt for long once advance voting results were announced. Haavisto had toured provincial petrol stations to try and capitalise on his personal popularity and touch with the voters, and narrowed the gap as the campaign went on, but in the end it was not enough to get Finland its first green and gay president. Haavisto said he will now focus his attention on his job as an MP. ”If you ask me today if I'll ever be involved in any elections again, my answer is probably no, not for a while and maybe never,” Haavisto said on Sunday night. The 65 year-old, who has run for the presidency twice before, conceded that campaigning had been tough. ”If life could go on for a little while without any elections, that would be very good,” he said, but did not want to comment on whether he would stand as a candidate in this summer's European elections.

The international press were keen to ask Stubb about Finland's position on foreign and security policy. Having recently joined Nato, the country is now engaged in defence planning that includes the Nato military alliance. One reporter asked Stubb about US presidential candidate Donald Trump's recent comment that he would ”encourage” Russia to ”do whatever they want” with European countries. Stubb started his answer by contrasting Finnish elections with those that tackle place in the United States. ”I'm very proud of the way we have conducted the elections here in Finland,” said Stubb. ”It's been very constructive, very positive, and in many ways very respectful. It's been a victory I think for liberal democracy. The reason for that is for us foreign and security policy is existential. We fully understand that we cannot have tough debates on foreign and security policy, especially not in this world political situation.” ”I've lived in the United States, I've studied in the United States and I'm fully aware that American presidential elections are slightly different in nature. I've been following them from the time when Bill Clinton was elected. I'm sure we all agree that Nato is the strongest military alliance in the world, collective defence is based on [Nato's] Article 5.” ”I personally feel that we in Finland have three locks that keep us safe as part of the alliance. Including by the way 2.3 percent of GDP defence spending this year. Secondly our Nato and EU membership, and thirdly our Defence co-operation agreement, DCA agreement with the United States. The US is a very close ally of ours and I predict and believe that this alliance will continue.”

We're wrapping up the live blog for the evening. Be sure to tune into the special edition of our All Points North podcast on Monday where we dissect the results.

And of course our website has all the news and reaction, including an election special paper review on Monday morning.

Thank you for joining us!

Who is Alexander Stubb?

Finland's new head of state hung up his academic robes to take a run at the presidency after a seven year hiatus from the public eye.

Pro-European Stubb's political rise came quickly some 15 years ago when an NCP politician's political demise became Stubb's ticket to promotion.

Over the years Stubb has sought to carve a unique place for himself when it comes to Russian relations — with varying results.

Read Yle News' profile on Alexander Stubb here.

Voter turnout nearly 71 percent

Second-round turnout was 70.7 percent, down from 75 percent in the first round of the presidential elections two weeks ago.

Yle forecast: Stubb wins by a whisker

With some 93.9 percent of the vote counted, Yle's election result forecast is that Alexander Stubb (NCP) will be Finland's next president.

The model suggests that Stubb will finish on 51.4 percent of the vote, while his rival Pekka Haavisto will get 48.6 percent.

Haavisto took the vote in the bigger cities and university towns, while Stubb won suburban municipalities like Espoo and Vantaa, and rural areas.

The results had been closer than expected, with the final polls putting the candidates some eight percentage points apart, but in the end Haavisto was unable to close the gap.

Haavisto leads in Helsinki and Tampere, Stubb in Espoo and Vantaa

Advance voting saw Pekka Haavisto ahead in Helsinki and Tampere, while Alexander Stubb took the majority of advance votes in Vantaa and Espoo.

Haavisto was ahead in Helsinki, Central Finland, Pirkanmaa and the autonomous province of Åland.

Stubb led in Espoo, Vantaa, Lahti and Pori. The Oulu and Lapland electoral districts voted heavily for Jussi Halla-aho (Finns) and Olli Rehn in the first round, and both saw Stubb take an early lead in advance voting in the second round.

Overall, the provinces saw a dip in turnout compared to the first round, according to Yle election expert Sami Borg.

He said that the advance voting totals could be some 5-10 percent lower than they were in the first round of voting, but reminded viewers that younger voters — who are more likely to vote for Haavisto, according to polling — tend to vote on election day rather than in advance.

Haavisto: ”It's possible to catch up”

”We're starting a bit behind, but it's possible to catch up with election day votes,” Haavisto said after advance votes were announced. He emphasised that the game was not lost. ”We have to wait to the end…I won't start analysing anything yet.”

Watch candidates react to advance vote results

Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto react to the early voting results as they came in.

Here Stubb's reaction as captured by our reporter Ronan Browne.

Valtonen: Exciting evening ahead

Yle News' Ronan Browne spoke with Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (NCP) at Stubb's election event.

She said that the results from advance voting suggest it could be a close race as votes are counted across the country.

”It looks very promising,” said Valtonen. ”My own prediction was close to 53 percent and we are close to that now. But we have an exciting evening ahead, and every vote counts.”

Stubb: ”A great start to the evening”

”It's a great start to the evening,” Stubb told Yle as the results from advance votes were published, putting him in the lead.

”Feeling great, but there's still a lot of votes left to count.” While in the top spot at the moment, Stubb said the night had yet to play out. ”At this point, all I'm thinking about is gratitude.”