Land-use/ Land-cover Change

This paper reports a case study which examines the how mapping ecosystem services can be used to identify areas of significant natural value to be protected or restored. We mapped habitat quality in Lombardy (northwest Italy) using the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff) model. Model outputs were used to approximate the spatial distribution of ecological quality across the region provided a framework to support the implementation of the Lombardy Regional Landscape Plan. This resulted in a proposal for introduction of new protected areas in the updated Landscape Plan, while other areas were proposed to be removed.

The ecosystems provide a range of material as well as non-material services that contribute to human well-being as well as supply necessary resources for the organisms. The land use/ land cover (LU/LC) changes have been taken place due to several natural and anthropogenic reasons, which significantly influence the ecosystem services. Therefore, the present study aimed to explore the minor variations of ecosystem services provided by the particular land use types of the study area. Therefore, we have divided the study area into nine grids. The land use land cover classifications have been performed using support vector machine techniques (SVM) for 1999-2019. Based on the multi-temporal land use land cover maps, we have used the global coefficient value of 1997 and 2003 for valuation of ecosystem services for different land use types. Then we have employed elasticity techniques to analyse the response of land use land cover changes over the ecosystem service valuation. The findings showed that the overall built-up area has increased by 29.14% since 1999, while the overall water-body has decreased by 15.81%. Therefore, the ecosystem services provided by water-body have been decreased correspondingly and the 29.14% areas that converted to built-up area from others land use types do not able to provide any ecosystem services and the ecosystem service values become nil, which is not suitable for good health ecosystem. Therefore, the study can be the foundation to the planners and scientists to prepare sustainable plans for the management of local ecosystem based on minorly study on the impact of LULC changes on the ecosystem services.

Indigenous nations are on the frontline of the current climate crisis. With cultures and economies among the most vulnerable to climate-related catastrophes, Native peoples are developing responses to climate change that serve as a model for Native and non-Native communities alike.

Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) is an invasive insect native to Asia that arrived in the US in 2002. The adult emerald ash borer is a metallic green insect about one-half inch long and one-eighth inch wide making it hard to detect in the wild. The beetles lay eggs on the bark of ash trees which eventually hatch and bore through the bark to the fluid-conducting vessels underneath. The larvae feed and develop, cutting off the flow of nutrients and eventually killing the tree. EAB has killed hundreds of millions of ash trees since arriving in the United States in 2002, costing billions of dollars in removals, replacement plantings, and chemical treatments. This paper focuses on one of forty-three municipalities in New Jersey surveyed for frequency, diameter at breast height (DBH) and geographic location via GPS.  It is expected that New Jersey’s experience with emerald ash borer will be no different from that of the other states that have seen this insect move through their communities. As such we can assume that, in the landscape, there is a high likelihood that all untreated ash trees will become infested and die. Previous studies suggest that 80% of the costs related to EAB will be borne by municipal governments and homeowners. The first confirmed identification of EAB in New Jersey was in May 2014 in Somerset County. Since then EAB has been confirmed in fourteen municipalities across six counties in NJ as of August 2015. An important consideration should be realized; all species of true ash trees (genus Fraxinus), which are one of our most commonly used shade trees in New Jersey, are threatened by the emerald ash borer.

Il Centro di Ricerca sui Consumi di Suolo è un ente per la promozione di studi sulle trasformazioni del suolo istituito dai seguenti soci fondatori: il Dipartimento di Architettura e Studi Urbani (DAStU) del Politecnico di Milano, l'Istituto Nazionale di Urbanistica (INU) e Legambiente ONLUS. Il CRCS svolge attività di ricerca scientifica, monitoraggio e divulgazione dei risultati di ricerche condotte direttamente dal Centro e/o dai partner, aventi per oggetto l'uso del suolo e le sue trasformazioni, l'assetto del territorio, le politiche per il governo sostenibile delle risorse naturali e culturali del territorio e della sua organizzazione insediativa e infrastrutturale. www.consumosuolo.org La conoscenza qualitativa del suolo propedeutica alla strutturazione delle politiche di governo del territorio richiama il tema dei Servizi ecosistemici quale supporto conoscitivo specialistico finalizzato ad un reale dimensionamento ambientale. In Italia, il lavoro sulla strutturazione di un sistema della conoscenza interdisciplinare legata al suolo e finalizzata a informare i processi di co-pianificazione tra differenti livelli di governo richiede ancora un lavoro di condivisione e ricerca. Il Rapporto CRCS 2016 raccoglie i contributi scientifici articolati secondo quattro campi tematici attualmente rilevanti nel dibattito sul suolo: il primo è quello dei " servizi ecosistemici " e delle relazioni con la pianificazione territoriale, in cui si restituiscono alcune prime esperienze di applicazione di metodologie di valutazione della qualità dei suoli e dei relativi servizi ecosistemi a supporto dei processi decisionali di governo del territorio. Il secondo campo tematico affronta le questioni delle misure e dei metodi per il monitoraggio del consumo di suolo attraverso studi sulle morfologie, quantità e interpretazioni qualitative dei processi di variazione degli usi del suolo. Il terzo fornisce una breve rassegna delle ricerche e dei progetti finalizzati ad un uso sostenibile della risorsa suolo evidenziando le possibili strategie per limitare e contenere il consumo di suolo. Il quarto propone infine alcune riflessioni su criticità ed elementi di interesse nelle recenti leggi regionali approvate e nelle proposte in corso finalizzate alla riduzione del consumo di suolo.

In the Wadi Biskra arid and semi-arid area, sustainable development is limited by land degradation, such as secondary salinization of soils. As an important high quality date production region of Algeria, it needs continuous monitoring of desertification indicators, since the bio-physical setting defines it as highly exposed to climate-related risks. For this particular study, for which little ground truth data was possible to acquire, we set up an assessment of appropriate methods for the identification and change detection of salt-affected areas, involving image interpretation and processing techniques employing Landsat imagery. After a first phase consisting of a visual interpretation study of the land cover types, two automated classification approaches were proposed and applied for this specific study: decision tree classification and principal components analysis (PCA) of Knepper ratios. Five of the indices employed in the Decision Tree construction were set up within the current study, among which we propose a salinity index (SMI) for the extraction of highly saline areas. The results of the 1984 to 2014 diachronic analysis of salt – affected areas variation were supported by the interpreted land cover map for accuracy estimation. Connecting the outputs with auxiliary bio-physical and socio-economic data, comprehensive results are discussed, which were indispensable for the understanding of land degradation dynamics and vulnerability to desertification. One aspect that emerged was the fact that the expansion of agricultural land in the last three decades may have led and continue to contribute to a secondary salinization of soils. This study is part of the WADIS-MAR Demonstration Project, funded by the European Commission through the Sustainable Water Integrated Management (SWIM) Program (www.wadismar.eu). © (2015) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

La Región Pampeana Argentina, presenta características con
altas ventajas comparativas para el desarrollo de la agriculturización. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es analizar las tasas de cambio anual en el uso del suelo en el partido de Lobería, inserto en dicha región, entre 2003 y 2011, a fin de caracterizar el proceso de agriculturización al interior del mismo, mediante la definición de paisajes. Se utilizaron imágenes satelitales clasificadas (ENVI 5.1), estadísticas oficiales, estudios antecedentes y relevamientos de campo. La tasa de cambio anual de la agricultura (δ:0,06505), muestra un incremento de la superficie destinada a esta actividad en desmedro de la ganadería, especialmente en las Llanuras onduladas. El diagnóstico integrado de los paisajes del Partido permite generar bases para una gestión sustentable de las actividades agroproductivas.

The area surrounding the Mandulog River in northern Mindanao has been experiencing changes due to both conversion of forestland to agricultural lands and due to infrastructure and community development in the area. This changing landscape, and the possible effects of a changing climate in Mindanao, may have been factors to the destructive flooding suffered by the lowland areas during the rage of tropical storm Washi (" Sendong ") particularly in Iligan City. This article pieces together observations and researches on the general state of the Mandulog River from the past and the present.

Research on Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics, and an understanding of the drivers responsible for these changes, are very crucial for modelling future LULC changes and the formulation of sustainable and robust land‐management strategies and policy decisions. This study adopted a mixed method consisting of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based analysis, focus‐group discussions, key informant interviews, and semi‐structured interviews covering 586 households to assess LULC dynamics and associated LULC change drivers across the Dedza district, a central region of Malawi. GIS‐based analysis of remotely sensed data revealed that barren land and built‐up areas extensively increased at the expense of agricultural and forest land between 1991 and 2015. Analysis of the household‐survey results revealed that the perceptions of respondents tended to validate the observed patterns during the remotely sensed data‐analysis phase of the research, with 57.3% (n = 586) of the respondents reporting a decline in agricultural land use, and 87.4% (n = 586) observing a decline in forest areas in the district. Furthermore,
firewood collection, charcoal production, population growth, and poverty were identified as the key drivers of these observed LULC changes in the study area. Undoubtedly, education has emerged as a significant factor influencing respondents’ perceptions of these drivers of LULC changes. However, unsustainable LULC changes observed in this study have negative implications on rural livelihoods and natural‐resource management. Owing to the critical role that LULC dynamics play to rural livelihoods and the ecosystem, this study recommends further research to establish the consequences of these changes. The present study and future research will support decision makers and planners in the design of tenable and coherent land‐management strategies.

In Ghana, more and more of the food needs (especially vegetables) of the urban population are being met by people farming in the urban/peri-urban areas, giving rise to what has become known as Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA). UPA is a farm and non-farm activity adopted for livelihood and domestic food security improvements. These activities have had challenges and dwindled growth overtime the period due to urban expansion and the lack of proper land use plans for that activity. This study with funding from USAID-Ghana sought to identify some of the major UPA
activities in the key cities / big towns in Ghana that serve as a livelihood source for urban/periurban dwellers. It examined the major areas of production and marketing of UPA livelihood activities and assessed the profitability of the key UPA livelihood activities identified in the
designated cities and towns with particular attention to the cost of inputs such as land and its tenure security. In particular, it reviewed critical and relevant policies, laws and by-laws guiding land use and access in urban and peri-urban areas, the adequacy of regulations in guiding and
protecting UPA activities. Lastly, the study examined and described the changing land use patterns in each of the designated major cities and towns and their effect on the profitability and sustainability of UPA in the country. This study aims to provide a set of recommendations to influence policy that will contribute to a sustainable UPA and food security in Ghana.
Methodologically, the study adopted mixed method approaches including interviews, survey questionnaire, focus group and key informant discussions with some state institutions and UPA practitioners using a sample of 244 respondents through purposive and cluster sampling
frames as well as document reviews. Gross Margin Analysis and descriptive statistics were used for the analysis. The results indicate that policies on UPA were quite pronounced in the country’s agricultural and land policy frameworks. The relevant state institutions such as MoFA, LPSA and Metropolitan, municipal and District Assemblies have been established with the requisite mandates. However, there are overlapping and competing responsibilities between these institutions. With no strong coordinated and integrated effort at harmonizing similar and cross-cutting responsibilities of state institutions on UPA, implementation of UPA policies in the field was affected. The result is that UPA has been affected as land used for agriculture in those areas have been taken over by commercial, industrial and residential development. Many farmers have been pushed to the periphery of the urban areas which are mostly infertile. The study establishes that most lands used for UPA are government-owned (5.3%), owned by private individuals (27%), along streams and valleys (36%) and 8% for open spaces. The percentages of crops cultivated are Maize (29%), cabbage (16%), Lettuce (11%), Onions (10.2%) and Okoro (9%) in UPA in Ghana. The study also found out that farmers’ main reason for farming in these areas were mainly to earn an income (74%), food (19%) and for both
income and food (7%). In terms of land acquisition, 47% said they are farming on the land with permission and 14% without permission/squatters. About 57% claim they were not harassed, whilst 5% were constantly harassed by owners for farming on the lands. With an average seasonal revenue of GHC 2,081.40 GHC 1,460.90, GHC 826.80 and GHC 2,657.20 for onions, cabbage, lettuce and sweet pepper respectively per hectare per farmer in the study areas, UPA can be said to be profitable. This is because these earnings are higher than the average annual earnings of GHC340.00 reported by the Ghana Statistical Service Living Standards Survey Round 5 in 2008. With these findings, the study recommends that;
1. MOFA, Town and Country Planning and the Assemblies should collaborate to designate
agricultural lands for these urban and peri-urban areas
2. That institution like Town and Country Planning should use their regulatory powers to
carry through designated areas for use
3. That government should carry out nationwide zoning of lands into UPA, real estate and
industrial and lobby chiefs into it as stakeholders
4. That UPA activity should be regulated to ensure best practices and constant supply food to the urban areas
5. MOFA should establish a UPA desk at each regional office to support UPA activities
6. MOFA together with the chiefs and Town and Country Planning should liaise and ensure
that only zoned and mapped lands are sold to people.

In Italy, the sealing process over coastal areas is a documented phenomenon: the 19,4% of soils between 0 and 300 meters from sea are already sealed, and the 16% are sealed too in a distance that range from 300 and 1000 meters. Less explored are the environmental effects of such phenomenon, which depends from extended land use substitution. The biodiversity loss over coastal areas is one of the major issues for sustainability of urban development process. The paper aims to explore the qualitative effects of sealing process using ecosystem service changes as a key driver for environmental assessment.

Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of land use expansion on the natural
environment of the Little Zab River basin (LZRB). The specific objectives were to: (i) prepare a land use
land cover (LULC) map for the LZRB; (ii) detect changes between five dates within the time period
1976-2014 and to identify spatial and temporal changes that occurred within this time period using image
indices; (iii) assess LULC classes results and compare the differences between them.
Different remote sensing and GIS techniques were applied, such as digital image processing using
supervised classification and image indices. Supervised classification using a maximum likelihood
algorithm was only applied on the Landsat 8 OLI data (September 2014) to classify the LULC map. The
classified image was modified with the help of image indices and visual interpretation to produce a more
accurate map. The image obtained with supervised classification has an overall accuracy of 83.43 % and
an overall Kappa coefficient of 0.811. The results were validated using 507 ground truth points
distributed all over the study area. Six Landsat images from September 1976, 1984, 1990, 2000 and two
Landsat 8 OLI 2014 images from April and from September were georeferenced, radiometrically and
atmospherically calibrated to detect the changes in the LZRB and to identify seasonal changes. Changes
have been calculated for the vegetation cover (natural vegetation vs. cropland and pasture), surface water
features and urban and built-up land. Change detection of the LZRB was performed using three indices:
the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)
and the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI). From the results from supervised classification
six main LULC classes have been distinguished in the LZRB. They involve barren land, agricultural land,
natural vegetation, urban and built-up land, burned land and water. Barren land is the main class in the
basin; it is subdivided into six subclasses. Agricultural land is the second largest class; it is subdivided
into three subclasses. In this study, change detection analysis over the period (1976-2014) has revealed
highly dynamic interchanges between the LULC classes. The change detection results show a rapid
increase in urban and built-up land. A significant increase of the population number, the migration from
small villages to the main cities and economic growth has fueled the rise of the urbanization rate within
the last decades. Surface water features were shown to shrink mainly due to the shrinkage of Dokan Lake under the pressure of climate change and due to the construction of dams in the upper watershed area of
the LZRB. The natural vegetation displayed a wavy or irregular trend while cropland and pasture showed
an increasing trend.
With the NDVI two classes of natural vegetation, and one cropland and one pasture class have been
identified based on reflectance values. Areas with relatively high NDVI values indicate the cropland and
pasture class, while lower values represent natural vegetation. Two spectral water index methods were
employed in this study, an NDWI (Ji et al. 2009), which was applied on Landsat 8 OLI and TM5 images
and an NDWI (El-Asmar et al. 2013), which was only applied on Landsat MSS images. Different water
indices have been applied for the MSS sensor due to the large difference in the spectral range between
MSS bands and other Landsat sensor bands. Both NDWI indices were successfully applied to extract
water features. Finally, the NDBI changes were calculated based on visual interpretation.

Water, which is accepted as the source of life on Earth, is vital for all living things. In this respect, conscious use of water resources is of utmost importance. The rapid increase in world population, industrialization and agricultural activities has increased the use of water resources. Moreover, the potential effects of climate change on water quantity make the problem bigger. Thus, conscious use of water resources becomes more essential. The annual available water per capita in Turkey is 1519 m3, so it is accepted as a country that experiences water stress. In this context; studies conducted for preservation, development and sustainability of natural water resources, should have priority. Management of water resources at watershed scale in Turkey constitutes the basis for sustainable development of these resources. On the other hand, integrated watershed management is accepted as the main tool for the achievement of the European Union Water Framework Directive objectives. Sakarya Basin was selected as the study area. It is located in the northwest of the Anatolian Peninsula, which is among the 25 river basins of Turkey. The basin covers about 7% of Turkey with 58160 km2 drainage area. Since, it is located between two major provinces Ankara and İstanbul, the basin has high importance in terms of interbasin water transfers, economy, cultural activities and transportation. Sakarya Basin is accepted as a location that experiences water stress, because the annual available water per capita changes between 1000 - 1700 m3. Due to population growth, climate change and water management problems in the basin, it is possible to have water scarcity in the near future. Modeling studies provide scientific support for the management of water resources, for analyzing the problem and for developing strategies for current and potential problems. Hydrological models are used to calculate water budget components; such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, base flow, ground water flow, evaporation and transpiration. Possible effects of climate, population, land use, crop pattern, irrigation practices etc. can be analyzed with various scenarios developed for present and future time periods. When a system is modeled, it is necessary to represent the real world as much as possible with the developed model. Data analysis phase is of utmost importance for modelling. When analyzing data, considering the scale of the study area, data must be used effectively. During this step, required data can be obtained from the related government agencies, if they are available. If data are not available at the related government agencies local and/or global open access data sets can be downloaded via various web sites. Geographical information systems, numerical calculations and spreadsheet programs are used for integration of data, for numerical and spatial data processing, and for analysis and visualization. WEAP model, which is developed by Stockholm Environment Institute, was selected as the hydrological model to be used in this study. Although, WEAP model has been used widely in various developed and developing countries, there are only a few studies existing in Turkey. Thus, this study is among the pioneer studies in Turkey, where WEAP model is used. Approximately 50% of the selected study area consists of agricultural land. Almost 74% of annual water consumption in Turkey is for agricultural irrigation, which has the highest share among the sectors. Since agricultural activities have high importance in the management of water resources, it was thought that a plant-based model will better reflect the hydrological behavior of the system; thus, PGM method of WEAP model was used for the hydrological modelling of the basin. WEAP-PGM model has an appropriate structure for water resources management, it includes the effect of changing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on plant water consumption and plant growth, in the hydrological process. Thus, effect of global climate change on plant efficiency and plant water consumption can be analyzed. By using the data analysis results; irrigation demand can be predicted with the spatial analysis of crops. Water consumption for agricultural production can be calculated; and the effect crop pattern changes on the hydrological system can be analyzed. After these analysis, suggestions can be made for the selection of products for efficient water use. The main objective of this study is to structure a high resolution hydrological model Sakarya Basin. Data analysis/integration has been done for setting up the model. Irrigated land, hydraulic structures and interbasin transfers in the basin were defined to the model and obtained data were entered. Water budget of the basin was calculated within the study, and a preliminary flow assessment was conducted for E12 A057, Adatepe stream gauging station. Drainage areas of the basin were determined by using ArcSWAT software. While setting up the hydrological model it was aimed to define a drainage basin for each water body in the basin. Finally, 379 sub basins have been defined for Sakarya Basin. Land use, crop pattern and soil characteristics data of the basin were compiled and organized in order to define the Hydrological Response Units (HRUs). ArcMap, MS Excel and MATLAB programs were used for defining site specific data for each HRU category. 1:25000 scaled National Soil Database produced at provincial level were obtained from Turkish Republic Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. ISRIC soil data set generated in Soil Grid 1 km Project were downloaded from its web site. 30 raster data were generated, which includes the average silt percentage, sand percentage, bulk density and coarse fragment characteristics, for six layers for each great soil group – depth combination. Raster data were overlaid with great soil group – depth combination areas of the national database, and average values were calculated for each of it. Average pixel values of ISRIC data, corresponding to each spatial area of Great Soil Group – depth combination elements were calculated, and physical and hydraulic characteristics of soil were analyzed for each combination group. Pedotransfer functions were used to determine the soil – water relations. In order to determine the spatial distribution of land use, crop pattern and planted land TÜİK Crop Production Database and CORINE Land Cover Project spatial data were integrated. National and global database, which is publicly available and can be accessed through internet, were utilized for this purpose. Spatial attributes were added to TÜİK database with this integration. As a result, the distribution of crops was calculated in an agriculture area (e.g. 70% wheat, 10% barley, 40% corn); instead of a general classification like "Agricultural land". An alternative solution has been presented, particularly for crop pattern analysis conducted within hydrological and agricultural studies in Turkey. According to the analysis conducted after CORINE - TÜİK data integration, the distribution is of agricultural land in Sakarya Basin in 2015 is as follows: 76% is non-irrigated agriculture, 22% is irrigated agriculture, and 3% is garden. Wheat has the highest share with 32% in non – irrigated agriculture, whereas barley is the second one with 14.4% share, and 24.3% of agricultural land is fallowed. Sunflower, beet, pea, alfalfa and corn appears to have high share in irrigated agriculture. The methodology developed for 2015 can also be applied to previous years. It is possible to identify and compare, crop pattern of previous years with this methodology. Stand type map of the study area was integrated CORINE data. According to analysis results of integration; 74.58% is pine, 14.92% is oak, 10.26% is maple and 0.23% is poplar trees. After the compilation and integration of all required data, the hydrological model was run. According to the model results, annual average precipitation was estimated as 29993 million m3. 5290 million m3 of precipitation is converted to runoff, and 2070 million m3 of precipitation infiltrates into groundwater. 11610 million m3 and 10960 million m3 of precipitation goes back to atmosphere through transpiration and evaporation, respectively. According to DSİ data, annual average rainfall is 524.7 mm, thus, annual precipitation in Sakarya Basin is 33183.6 million m3. Annual average flow in basin is 6400 million m3, and the groundwater potential is 2197.1 million m3, which is in agreement with model results. Calibration and validation of the model should be completed in the future studies. When calibration and validation step is completed it will be possible to develop effective strategies and scenarios for the management of water resources, such as water allocation for sectors like drinking – consumption, industry, irrigation and other sectors. Effects of climate change on water resources can be analysed within these scenarios.