Map Generalization

OpenStreetMap (OSM) is a free map of the world which can be edited by global volunteers. Existing studies have showed that completeness of OSM road data in some developing countries (e.g. China) is much lower, resulting in concern in utilizing the data in various applications. But very few have focused on investigating what types of road are still poorly mapped. This study aims not only to investigate the completeness of OSM road datasets in China but also to investigate what types of road (called omission roads) have not been mapped, which is achieved by referring to both Street Map and Street View. Sixteen prefecture-level divisions in the urban areas of Hubei (China) were used as study areas. Results showed that: (1) the completeness for most prefecture-level divisions was at a low-to-medium level; most roads (in the Street Map), however, with traffic conditions had already been mapped well. (2) Most of the omission OSM roads were either private roads, or public roads not having yet been named and with only one single lane, indicating their minor importance in the urban road network. We argue that although the OSM road datasets in China are incomplete, they may still be used for several applications such as traffic flow analysis, road map representation, and backbone structure detection.

Ky libër është rezultat i përvojës shumëvjeçare të autorit të hartës në fushën e hartografisë, e posaçërisht në analizat mbi metodat e ndryshme dhe etapat e veçanta të përgjithësimit hartografik. Libri është i dedikuar për të gjithë profesionistët në lëmin e hartografisë, gjeodezisë, gjeografisë dhe GIS-it, si dhe të gjithë atyre të cilët në mënyrë direkte ose indirekte merren me paraqitjen e të dhënave gjeohapësinore në formë grafike, respektivisht në hartë. Duke pasur parasysh përmbajtjen e këtij libri, ai do ta pasurojë literaturën shqiptare në lëmin e hartografisë, në të cilin krahas përmbajtjes së përgjithshme janë paraqitur edhe tema të cilat deri më tani nuk janë  prekur, prej të cilave do ta veçonim  procesin e përgjithësimit hartografik. Gjatë gjithë tekstit, shpjegimi i çdo metode dhe standardi është dhënë në korelacion me trendet bashkëkohore të hartografisë digjitale, respektivisht si  mund të përdoren ata gjatë aplikimit të softverëve kompjuterikë në proceset hartografike. Duke pasur parasysh numrin e madh të standardeve të paraqitura në këtë libër, ai në të ardhmen do të shërbejë si bazë e shëndoshë për standardizimin e punimeve hartografike, respektivisht përpilimin e çelësave hartografikë për harta me shkallë të ndryshme.  Libri përmban tetë kapituj, të cilët janë të radhitur sipas një rendi logjik konform temave të cilat janë paraqitur në to. Krahas shpjegimit teorik, në libër janë dhënë shumë shembujsh, të cilët mundësojnë që metodat e shpjeguara teorikisht të mund të qartësohen se si ata mund të përdoren edhe praktikisht. E gjithë përmbajtja teorike është e përcjellë edhe me figura, të cilat ndihmojnë që në mënyrë vizuele të bëhet lidhje korelative mes përmbajtjes së shpjeguar teoretikisht dhe formës së dukurive përkatëse në natyrë.  Në kapitullin e parë janë dhënë disa përkufizime për hartografinë si shkencë dhe hartën si prodhim hartografik, mandej qëllimet, si dhe ndarja e tyre sipas shumë kritereve. Në këtë kapitull duhet të veçohet pjesa ku është shpjeguar lidhja korelative ndërmjet hartografisë me gjeodezinë dhe gjeografinë.  Në kapitullin e dytë në mënyrë informative është bërë përshkrimi i të gjitha proceseve që përfshin përpilimi i hartave, dhe atë duke filluar prej punëve përgatitore e deri te azhurnimi i hartave. Në këtë kapitull duhet veçuar pjesa ku janë paraqitur disa metoda për zgjedhjen e shkallës më optimale të hartës, zgjedhjen e projeksioneve hartografike që përdoren për harta të territoreve të ndryshme dhe për destinime të ndryshme, si dhe digjitalizimin e hartave.  Në kapitullin e tretë janë paraqitur katër lloje të ngarkesës së hartës, të përcjellur me shembuj praktikë. 
Në kapitullin e katërt në mënyrë detaje është paraqitur modelimi i hartave, respektivisht të gjitha standardet për modelimin e shenjave hartografike, shkronjave dhe numrave, si dhe modelimi i  hartave në bazë të ngarkesës grafike të hartës. Në këtë kapitull veçohen dhe potencohen dimensionet e dhëna të shenjave hartografike, të cilat paraqesin standarde të domosdoshme që duhet të merren parasysh gjatë modelimit të shenjave hartografike.  Në kapitullin e pestë janë dhënë të gjitha standardet për paraqitjen e elementeve gjeografike në hartë, ku vëmendje të veçantë u është kushtuar metodave për paraqitjen e relievit në erën e hartografisë digjitale.  Në kapitullin e gjashtë në mënyrë detaje është përshkruar i gjithë procesi i përgjithësimit hartografik. Ky kapitull kryesisht është i ndarë në tri pjesë: në faktorët që ndikojnë në përgjithësimin hartografik, etapat e përgjithësimit hartografik dhe në përgjithësimin hartografik të elementeve gjeografikë. Qasja kryesore në shpjegimin dhe paraqitjen e standardeve për këtë proces është bërë duke marrë parasysh formën gjeometrike të objekteve dhe fenomeneve natyrore dhe shoqërore, si edhe karakteristikat e tyre natyrore dhe/ose shoqërore. Krahas shpjegimit të metodave klasike, të cilat përdoren në etapat e veçanta të këtij procesi dhe mundësive për automatizim të tyre me përdorimin e softverëve kompjuterikë, në këtë kapitull janë dhënë edhe principet e automatizimit, respektivisht të gjysmautomatizimit të proceseve të veçanta të përgjithësimit hartografik duke përdorur softverët kompjuterikë AutoCAD Map dhe PC ARC/INFO.  Në kapitullin e shtatë në mënyrë grafike janë paraqitur simbolet e hartave topografike të shkallës 1:50.000 sipas standardeve të NATO-s, të cilat janë përpiluar nga NIMA (National Imagery and Mapping Agency) dhe më pas ata janë përkthyer në gjuhën shqipe nga ana e IGjUSh-së (Instituti Gjeografik Ushtarak i Shqipërisë).  Duke pasur konsideratë të jashtzakonshme në literaturën që kam shfrytëzuar gjatë përpilimit të këtij libri, në kapitullin e tetë është dhënë listë të literaturës së shfrytëzuar.  Për kontroll të detajuar të tekstit dhe për sugjerimet mjaft të nevojshme  të cilët e rritën kualitetin e përmbajtjes së këtij libri, falënderime të veçanta u shprehi recensentëve Prof.Dr.sc. Murat Meha dhe Asoc.Prof.Dr.Ing. Pal Nikolli, si dhe lektorit gjuhësor Dr.sc. Xhemaludin Idrizi. Falënderime të veçanta po ashtu u shprehi edhe të gjithë anëtarëve të familjes sime, kolegëve në dapartamentin e gjeografisë pranë Universitetit Shtetëror të Tetovës, dhe të gjithë shokëve të mi. 
15.01.2006, Shkup                      autori

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

PREFACE 
The book “General cartography with cartographic generalisation” came as a result of an engagement, lasting several years, in the field of cartography, post-graduate studies, as well as the performed practical analyses during the preparation of the Masters Degree thesis. The book is mainly meant for cartographers, geodetic engineers, geographers, GIS experts, as well as for all professionals whose activities are directly or indirectly linked to the cartographic presentation of the natural and/or social phenomenons on a map. Taking into consideration the big number of standards present in the overall text, this book may serve as a sound basis for the standardisation of the cartographic activities in our country. The book is composed of eight inter-linked chapters which represent a homogenous body, and in which theoretical clasifications of cartography as a science, the cartographic processes, methods, ways and standards for generalised presentation of the geographical elements on a map, followed with many practical examples are given.  The first chapter gives definitions on cartography as a science and its division, then it shows its relationship to Geodesy and Geography, and at the end gives definitions and division of maps as the main cartographic product. The second chapter shortly describes the process of making maps, starting from the measuring in the field to the printing of the maps. It is important to mention that in the second chapter an authentic approach towards the selection of the map measurements as a mathematical element of the map, with many practical examples, has been selected.  The third chapter gives an overview of the methods and ways of calculating the burden of the maps with particular geographical elements by giving several practical examples. The main principles of map modelling are presented in the fourth chapter, in which a special emphasis is put on the modelling and dimensioning (standards) of the cartographic symbols, then the modelling of the numbers, letters and format, and the principles of modelling the map in accordance with its burden. The cartographic presentation of the geographical elements of the map is explained in details in the fifth chapter, which gives an overview of the methods and standards for the presentation of the relief, hidrography, communication net, vegetation, inhibited places, borders and the titles on the maps. The sixth chapter gives detailed explanation over the frequent procedures of cartographic generalisation, then the methods of the procedures for cartographic generalisation, as well as the methods and standards for cartographic generalisation of the particular geographic elements followed with practical examples.
The seventh chapter gives a graphical annex of the cartographic symbols which are used to present the geographical elements in maps with scale 1:25000, 1:50000, 1:100000 and 1:200000. The cartographic symbols have been extracted from the Book “Military topography”, after receiving the approval of the author, Prof.D.sc. Jove Talevski, to whom I express my gratitude for the co-operation. Taking into consideration the significance of the utilised professional literature, the eighth chapter gives a list of titles of used literature. For the detailed overview and the useful suggestions, I would like to express my enormous gratitude to the reviewers Prof. Risto Ribarovski and Doc.D.sc. Zlatko Srbinoski, professors at the Geodesy Department by the Faculty of Civil Engineering – University “St. Kiril i Metodij” – Skopje.  For the financial support, I would like to express my enormous gratitude to the management and all colleagues of the State Authority for Geodetic Works, who is also the publisher of this book.  For the moral and financial support, I would like to express my great gratitude to my parents Xhemaludin and Rufie Idrizi. 

PREDGOVOR 
Knigata “Op{ta kartografija so kartografska generalizacija” proizleze kako rezultat na pove}egodi{en anga`man vo oblasta na kartografijata, poslediplomskite studii, kako i izvr{enite prakti~ni analizi niz izrabotkata na magisterskiot trud. Knigata glavno e nameneta za kartografi, geodeti, geografi, GIS eksperti, kako i za site stru~ni lica ~ija dejnost e posredno ili neposredno povrzana so kartografskiot prikaz na prirodnite i/ili op{testvenite fenomeni na karta. So ogled na golemiot braj na standardi koi se priklo`eni niz celiot tekst, ovaa kniga mo`e da koristi kako dobra osnova za standardizacija na kartografskata dejnost kaj nas.  Knigata e sostavena od osum poglavja, me|usebno povrzani koi pretstavuvaat edna homogena celina, niz koi poglavja se dadeni teoretski pojasnuvawa na kartografijata kako nauka, kako i za kartografskite procesi, metodi, na~ini i standardi za generaliziran prikaz na geografskite elementi na karta, prosledeni so niza prakti~ni primeri.  Vo prvoto poglavje se dadeni definiciite za kartografijata kako nauka i nejzinata podelba, potoa dadena e nejzina vrska so Geodezijata i Geografijata, i na krajot dadeni se definicii i podelba na kartite, kako osnoven kartografski proizvod.  Vo vtoroto poglavje kuso e opi{an procesot na izrabotka na kartite, po~nuvaj}i od premerot na terenot pa se do pe~ateweto na kartite. Od vtoroto poglavje bitno e da se potencira avtenti~niot priod kon izbor na razmerot na kartata kako matemati~ki element na kartata, so niza prakti~ni primeri.  Vo tretoto poglavje pak se dadeni metodite i na~inite za presmetuvawe na optovarenosta na kartite so oddelni geografski elementi, pri {to se dadeni nekolku prakti~ni primeri.  Osnovnite principi na oblikuvaweto na kartite se dadeni vo ~etvrtoto poglavje, pri {to poseben akcent e daden na oblikuvaweto i dimenzioniraweto (standardite) na kartografskite znaci, potoa na oblikuvaweto na brojkite, bukvite i formatot, kako i principite na oblikuvawe na kartata spored nejzinata optovarenost.  Kartografskiot prikaz na geografskite elementi na karta e detalno pojasnet vo pettoto poglavje, kade se opfateni metodite i standardite za prika`uvawe na reljefot, hidrografijata, komuni
kaciskata mre`a, vegetacijata, naselenite mesta, granicite i natpisite na karta.  Vo {estoto poglavje op{irno se pojasneti {este postapki na kartografskata generalizacija, potoa metodite na postapkite za kartografska generalizacija, kako i metodite i standardite za kartografska generalizacija na oddelnite geografski elementi, nadopolneti so prakti~ni primeri.  Vo sedmoto poglavje e daden grafi~ki prilog na kartografskite znaci koi se koristat za prika`uvawe na geografskite elementi na karti vo razmer 1:25 000, 1:50 000, 1:100 000 i 1:200 000. Znacite se prezemeni od knigata “Voena topografija”, po prethodna soglasnost od strana na avtorot Prof.d-r Jove Talevski, za {to mu izrazuvam blagodarnost za sorabotkata.  Imaj}i go predvid zna~eweto na koristenata stru~na literatura, vo osmoto poglavje e daden spisok na naslovite na koristenata literatura. 
Za detalniot pregled i korisnite sugestii, golema blagodarnost im upatuvam na recenzentite Prof. Risto Ribarovski i  Doc.d-r Zlatko Srbinoski, profesori na katedrata za vi{a geodezija na Grade`niot fakultet - pri Univerzitetot “Sv. Kirili i Metodij” - Skopje.  Za iska`anata finansiska pomo{, im izrazuvam golema blagodarnost na rakovodstvoto i site kolegi na Dr`avniot zavod za geodetski raboti - Skopje, koj vpro~em e i izdava~ na ovaa kniga.  Za iska`anata moralna i finansiska poddr{ka, im upatuvam golema blagodarnost na moite roditeli Xemaludin i Rufie Idrizi, kako i na brat mi Bujar Idrizi.

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this tendency appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration. HM Treasury recommends that these adjustments be based on data from past projects or similar projects elsewhere, and adjusted for the unique characteristics of the project in hand. In the absence of a more specific evidence base, HM Treasury has encouraged departments to collect data to inform future estimates of optimism, and in the meantime use the best available data. In response to this, the Department for Transport (henceforth DfT), has contracted Bent Flyvbjerg in association with COWI to undertake the consultancy assignment "Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning". The present Guidance Document is the result of this assignment.

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. Our article shows how planners may help achieve this.

Do different types of megaprojects have different cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart of research at the University of Oxford aimed at understanding the characteristics of megaprojects, particularly in terms of how they are established, run and concluded. In this study, we set out to investigate cost overruns in the Olympic Games. To do so, we examined the costs of the Games over half a century, including both summer and winter Olympics. We looked at the evolution of final reported costs and compared these to the costs established in the Games bids, submitted to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) up to seven years before the Games occurred. In so doing we established the largest dataset of its kind, and documented for the first time in a consistent fashion the costs and cost overruns for the Olympic Games, from 1960 to 2012. We discovered that the Games stand out in two distinct ways compared to other megaprojects: (1) The Games overrun with 100 per cent consistency. No other type of megaproject is this consistent regarding cost overrun. Other project types are typically on budget from time to time, but not the Olympics. (2) With an average cost overrun in real terms of 179 per cent – and 324 per cent in nominal terms – overruns in the Games have historically been significantly larger than for other types of megaprojects, including infrastructure, construction, ICT, and dams. The data thus show that for a city and nation to decide to host the Olympic Games is to take on one of the most financially risky type of megaproject that exists, something that many cities and nations have learned to their peril. For the London 2012 Games, we find that: (1) With sports-related real costs currently estimated at USD14.8 billion, London is on track to become the most costly Olympics ever. (2) With a projected cost overrun of 101 per cent in real terms, overrun for London is below the historical average for the Games, but not significantly so. (3) The London cost overrun is, however, significantly higher than overruns for recent Games since 1999. London therefore is reversing a positive trend of falling cost overruns for the Games.

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? - Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure development pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, the paper explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. This results in the "survival of the unfittest," where often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, the paper presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large infrastructure projects, with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance structures, the latter being more important.

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The article presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.

Out-of-control information technology (IT) projects have ended the careers of top managers, such as EADS CEO Noël Forgeard and Levi Strauss’ CIO David Bergen. Moreover, IT projects have brought down whole companies, like Kmart in the US and Auto Windscreen in the UK. Software and other IT is now such an integral part of most business processes and products that CEOs must know their IT risks, which are typically substantial – and overlooked. The analysis of a sample of 1,471 IT projects showed that the average cost overrun was 27% — but that figure masks a far more alarming “fat tail” risk.  Fully one in six of the projects in the sample was a Black Swan, with a cost overrun of 200%, on average, and a schedule overrun of almost 70%. This highlights the true pitfall of IT change initiatives: It’s not that they’re particularly prone to high cost overruns on average – it is that there are a disproportionate number of Black Swans. By focusing on averages instead of the more damaging outliers, most managers and consultants have been missing the real risk in doing IT. In conclusion, the article outlines ideas as to what can be done to avoid Black Swans.

"Este artículo describe uno de los hechos geográficos más relevantes que se da en los municipios del litoral y prelitoral valenciano: el proceso de suburbanización desencadenado como consecuencia de la década de enorme auge inmobiliario que hubo entre 1997 y 2007. Para estudiar este fenómeno se han organizado una serie de ejercicios realizados en la clase de Cartografía dentro del grado de Geografía de la Universitat de València, consistente en fotointerpretar los usos del suelo (a partir de imágenes PNOA) de un municipio, elegido libremente por el alumno, y llevar a cabo una cartografía generalizada del mismo, mediante ArcGIS, a partir de una clasifi cación ad hoc (basada en CORINE). El estudiante debe posteriormente comentar el mapa."

2008. 352 pp. r150.00 (hardcover). This volume is intended to explain why major investment projects (the so-called mega-projects) often are not completed on time and cost more than originally budgeted. Drawing from experiences of European and North American countries, the book also suggests ways to avoid such failures. Although the topic is rather specific, the book is worth reading for both experts and nonexperts as infrastructure development continues to be a major key to economic expansion across the globe.g row_486 380.. 408 For those who only have a vague idea of what a mega-project is, the book begins by introducing the topic and reviewing the most important recent literature. The first part of the volume, then, provides numerous insights on the complexity of mega-projects, starting from the large number of reasons why mega-projects might fail. For example, the project might be "underdesigned," thus less costly but less robust to unforeseen developments, or it might be "overdesigned," when a large number of weaknesses and possible problems are considered in advance, and solutions are evaluated before the problem actually occurs. Overdesigned projects are more robust, less likely to fail, but are much more costly. The project might involve the use of innovative technologies that have never been applied to a similar context, and that involve more uncertain implementation costs and results. Most projects have an impact on the environment and might face opposition for example from environmentalist groups. If representative of these groups have not been directly involved in the design of the project, they might try to stop it, thus causing delays and increasing costs. Finally, because of incorrect predictions of 380 GROWTH AND CHANGE, JUNE 2009

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure developments pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, it explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not those of their competition, that gain approval and funding. This results in the ‘survival of the unfittest’, in which often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, it presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance structures, the latter being more important.

A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a promising new method called "reference class forecasting," which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects and thereby bypassing both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Fourth, the paper presents the first instance of practical reference class forecasting, which concerns cost forecasts for large transportation infrastructure projects. Finally, potentials for and barriers to reference class forecasting are assessed.

Improving the use of vector data in web mapping is often shown as an important challenge. Such shift from raster to vector web maps would open web mapping and GIS to new innovations and new practices. The main obstacle is a performance issue: Vector web maps in nowadays web mapping environments are usually too slow and not usable. Existing techniques for vector web mapping cannot solve alone the performance issue. This article describes a unified framework where some of these techniques are integrated in order to build efficient vector web mapping clients and servers. This framework is composed of the following elements: Specific formats for vector data and symbology, vector tiling, spatial index services, and generalization for multiscale data. A prototype based on this framework has been implemented and has shown satisfying results. Some principles for future standards to support the development of vector web mapping are given.

This paper proposes an algorithm for road density analysis based on skeleton partitioning. Road density provides metric and statistical information about overall road distribution at the macro level. Existing measurements of road density based on grid method, fractal geometry and mesh density are reviewed, and a new method for computing road density based on skeleton partitioning is proposed. Experiments illustrate that road density based on skeleton partitioning may reveal the overall road distribution. The proposed measurement is further tested against road maps at 1:10k scale and their generalized version at 1:50k scale. By comparing the deletion percentage within different density interval, a road density threshold can be found, which indicate the need for further operations during generalization. Proposed road density may be used to examine the quality of road generalization, to explore the variation of road network through temporal and spatial changes, and it also has future usage in urban planning, transportation and estates evaluation practice.

Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman must be commended for their clear identification of causes and cures to the planning fallacy in “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions” (July 2003). Their look at overoptimism, anchoring, competitor neglect, and the outside view in forecasting is highly useful to executives and forecasters. However, Lovallo and Kahneman underrate one source of bias in forecasting—the deliberate “cooking” of forecasts to get ventures started. My colleagues and I call this the Machiavelli factor.

Results from the first statistically significant study of the causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects are presented. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on: (1) the length of the project‐implementation phase, (2) the size of the project and (3) the type of project ownership. First, it was found, with very high statistical significance, that cost escalation was strongly dependent on the length of the implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: decision‐makers and planners should be highly concerned about delays and long implementation phases because they translate into risks of substantial cost escalations. Second, projects have grown larger over time, and for bridges and tunnels larger projects have larger percentage cost escalations. Finally, by comparing the cost escalation for three types of project ownership - private, state‐owned enterprise and other public ownership - it was shown that the oft‐seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. The type of accountability appears to matter more to cost escalation than type of ownership.

This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits – used in the business cases, cost-benefit analyses, and social and environmental impact assessments that typically support decisions on projects – are typically significantly different from actual ex post costs and benefits, and are therefore poor predictors of the actual value and viability of projects. Second, it is discussed how Kahneman and Tversky’s theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may help explain and remedy this situation through quality control of decisions. Third, it is described what quality control and due diligence are in the context of project management, and an eight-step procedure is outlined for due diligence based on the outside view. Fourth, the procedure is tested on a real-life, multibillion-dollar project, organized as a public-private partnership. Finally, Akerlof and Shiller’s recent discussion in economics of “firing the forecaster” is discussed together with its relevance to project management. In sum, the paper demonstrates the need, the theoretical basis, a practical methodology, and a real-life example for how to de-bias project management using quality control and due diligence based on the outside view.

Automated generalisation to take fields into account : the GAEL model.

Geographic data generalisation is the process of simplification of these data when their representation scale decreases. This thesis is based on the automated generalisation model of (Ruas & Duchêne, 2007), which has been successfully applied to the generalisation of discrete geographic objects (buildings, roads, etc.). Our purpose is to take into account a new kind of themes, the "field themes", such as the relief and the land use cover. These themes have the specificity to be defined at each point of the space. We aim at preserving the relationships between geographic objects andfields, such as for example, the fact that a river should flow down on the relief.

To reach this goal, we propose a generalisation model called GAEL (Generalisation based on Agents and ELasticity). This model allows to apply deformations to the fields in order to preserve the object-field relationships. Fields are modelled as "elastic agents", which are able to deform themselves to propagate the generalisation operations applied on the geographic objects (buildings, roads, etc.). These deformations are performed by using a decomposition of the fields into small constrained elements (points, segments, triangles, etc.) and by modelling the points composing the fields as agents. Because it is merged with the model of (Ruas & Duchêne, 2007), the GAEL model offers a hybrid generalisation model, able to manage both discrete and continuous operations.

Many geographical data generalisation models have contributed to improve the automation of this complex simplification process. This paper focuses on the agent-based generalisation model GAEL, which provides a generic way to compute continuous object deformations. The principle of this deformation model is to make objects deformable by decomposing them into small constrained objects (segments, triangles, etc.). An object deformation is computed by balancing these constraints. Depending on the constraints choice, the object can be deformed in many different ways. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how this model can be relatively easily reused for three new applications: building squaring, contour lines displacement, and buildings displacement. We then discuss the notions of genericity and easiness of reuse of generalisation models, and finally propose some methodical points helping to improve these important characteristics of generalisation models.

Este artículo describe uno de los hechos geográfi cos más relevantes que se da en los municipios del litoral y
prelitoral valenciano: el proceso de suburbanización desencadenado como consecuencia de la década de enorme
auge inmobiliario que hubo entre 1997 y 2007. Para estudiar este fenómeno se han organizado una serie de ejercicios
realizados en la clase de Cartografía dentro del grado de Geografía de la Universitat de València, consistente en
fotointerpretar los usos del suelo (a partir de imágenes PNOA) de un municipio, elegido libremente por el alumno,
y llevar a cabo una cartografía generalizada del mismo, mediante ArcGIS, a partir de una clasifi cación ad hoc
(basada en CORINE). El estudiante debe posteriormente comentar el mapa.

Process modelling has always been an important part the research in generalisation. While in the early days, this would take the form of a static sequence of generalisation actions, today the focus is on modelling much more complex processes, capable of generalising geographic data in to various maps according to specific user requirements. This chapter discusses several aspects of the problem of building such systems. As the system get more complex, it becomes important to be able to reuse components which already exist. Web services have been used to encapsulate generalisation processes in a way that maximises their interoperability and therefore reusability. However, for a system to discover and trigger such service, it needs to be described in machine understandable way, and the system needs to have the knowledge about where and when to use such tool. This chapter therefore explores the requirements and potential approaches to design and build such systems.

The field of Qualitative Spatial Reasoning is now an active research area in its own right within AI (and also in Geographical Information Systems) having grown out of earlier work in philosophical logic and more general Qualitative Reasoning in AI. In this paper (which is an updated version of [25]) I will survey the state of the art in Qualitative Spatial Reasoning, covering representation and reasoning issues as well as pointing to some application areas.

Listening to music calls forth a construction of meaning as the result of an interaction with the sound. This process of sense-making can keep pace with the unfolding through time but it can keep distance with respect to the sonorous unfolding as well, allowing the listener to deal with music both at the level of sensory experience and at the level of imagery and representation.As such we argue for an enactive approach to music cognition that brings together the experiential and cognitive points of view.We provide the concept of pointing as a heuristic tool for sense-making, both as a primitive marking system and as a mechanism of selection. It allows us to use deictic devices which locate individual elements in context and stress the field of pointing rather than the symbolic field of cognition. Deictic elements, furhter, are related to the concept of indexicality which entails processes of singling out, as is obvious from the use of pragmatic anaphora which allows us to refer back and forward in a text. In order to do so we must have access to the flow of discourse as a whole, where parts may be re-taken up and anticipated. It invites the listener to build route-descriptions and cognitive maps which allow him/her to navigate mentally through the music and to compare the actual sounding elements with their projections in imagery.

Many research works in map generalisation concern building and road themes. Several generalisation models, such as an agent-based generalisation model on which this paper focuses, have been designed and applied for these themes and give promising results. Our purpose is to take into account field themes, such as the relief and the land use cover. Many relationships exist between these themes and other objects and should be preserved during the generalisation process.

The focus of this work is to design an hybrid generalisation system able to manage both discrete and continuous operations. Thus, we propose a model, called GAEL (for Generalisation based on Agents and ELasticity), which extends the existing agent-based model in order to make the triggering of continuous operations possible. The objects to deform are decomposed into small constrained objects and the points composing the geometry of these objects are modeled as agents. We apply this model to the deformation of fields.

The COMPUTATIONAL ECOLOGY AND SOFTWARE (ISSN 2220-721X) is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal that considers scientific articles in all different areas of computational ecology. It is the transactions of the International Society of Computational Ecology. The journal is concerned with the ecological researches, constructions and applications of theories and methods of computational sciences including computational mathematics, computational statistics and computer science. It features the simulation, approximation, prediction, recognition, and classification of ecological issues. Intensive computation is one of the major stresses of the journal. The journal welcomes research articles, short communications, review articles, perspectives, and book reviews. The journal also supports the activities of the International Society of Computational Ecology.

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long-term uncertainty due to land use change and policy decisions). Sources of uncertainty arise from nonrecurrent congestion because of accidents, earthquake, traffic signal failure, or road maintenance or because of recurrent congestion, that is, regular change in demand throughout the day. It is desirable to design a network so that it is resilient to such conditions. Most studies adopted stochastic programming (SP) to model such situations (10-12). However, SP models account for only the first moment of the uncertain variable by minimizing the expected system costs. The robust network design problem (RNDP) is a recent advancement in network design paradigms which accounts for the sensitivity of the design by accounting for higher moments. The genesis of RNDP can be traced back to robust optimization (RO), a modeling methodology for solving optimization problems in which data are uncertain (13-16). The approach is to seek optimal or near-optimal solutions that are not overly sensitive to any realization of uncertainty (17 ). It aims for a solution that is robust or insensitive to the uncertainty considered and thus is an efficient solution in practice. In addition, this approach can obtain robust solutions by solving a problem that is not harder than the deterministic problem (15). A distinction between RO and SP methods is that whereas the latter accounts for uncertainty by minimization of the expected value objective function, the former considers higher moments of the probability distribution in addition to the expected value of the objective function. Although both RO and SP allow the NDP problem to account for uncertainty, the RO model has little sensitivity to demand.

This paper presents a new approach to the delineation of local labor markets based on evolutionary computation. The aim of the exercise is the division of a given territory into functional regions based on travel-to-work flows. Such regions are defined so that a high degree of inter-regional separation and of intra-regional integration in both cases in terms of commuting flows is guaranteed. Additional requirements include the absence of overlap between delineated regions and the exhaustive coverage of the whole territory. The procedure is based on the maximization of a fitness function that measures aggregate intra-region interaction under constraints of inter-region separation and minimum size. In the experimentation stage, two variations of the fitness function are used, and the process is also applied as a final stage for the optimization of the results from one of the most successful existing methods, which are used by the British authorities for the delineation of travel-to-wo...

Este trabalho apresenta um método para generalização cartográfica automática de bases cadastrais contendo arruamentos usando algoritmos de processamento digital de imagens (PDI). A implementação de algoritmos robustos e eficientes para generalização cartográfica é uma tarefa de alto grau de complexidade, uma vez que diversos problemas devem ser analisados simultaneamente. A principal característica do método proposto é o emprego de uma sequencia de técnicas de PDI para generalização de uma base cadastral. Primeiramente, a resolução espacial da imagem digital de uma base cadastral é reduzida e transformada para níveis de cinza. Em seguida, a imagem é limiarizada e os ruídos são atenuados através de um processo de suavização de imagens. Finalmente, os pixels de borda são detectados e um algoritmo conhecido com Convex Hull que extrai a área de influência das ruas. Para validar o método proposto foi conduzido um experimento usando uma base cadastral na escala 1:50000, contendo apenas ar...