PLANNING INVOLVE? There are different forms of scenario planning. The most common used in strategic analysis is based on identifying Scenario planning is most useful in situations where critical the key drivers in the system, and exploring future uncertainties are high, but control over key drivers is low scenarios aligned with these. The steps are discussed in (Cork and Delaney 2007) detail in the description of the scenario planning process, and include:
Involve key Identify key Create multiple Test existing Revise or create decision makers drivers of possible future strategies against new strategies or implementation in the exercise uncertainty scenarios the different futures approaches
“What is interesting is how
the same strategy [that seems reasonable now] can appear quite different when you consider it under the different futures.” (paraphrased quote from workshop participant)
SCENARIO PLANNING Page 5
SCENARIO PLANNING – PROCESS IDENTIFY THE FOCAL QUESTION 1. The focal question should be relevant to critical issues facing the organisation, and broad enough for wide- ranging exploration of the issues.
ASSESS KEY DRIVERS
2. The first step in assessing key drivers is to brainstorm current and future drivers of change. Groups should consider these across a range of issues, e.g. social, environmental, economic, technological, and political. The second step is to classify these drivers according to their degree of uncertainty and importance (usually done in a matrix format with low, medium and high levels on each axis). Small group exercises work well for these steps. The critical drivers are those that have both high uncertainty and high importance; drivers that are high on one axis DEVELOP MULTIPLE and medium on another may also be considered as FUTURE SCENARIOS important. Each of these drivers is then ‘unpacked’ 3. The two most important drivers are chosen as the by looking at likely trends and shocks and surprises. basis for the scenarios. They are displayed on an The final step in identifying drivers is to rank them in axis, with low and high values for each, to create 4 order of importance, usually by voting. possible future scenarios. Each scenario is named and described to generate four possible scenarios. The workshop group begins the process by considering the potential impacts, likely trends and surprises for each scenario. C R I TI C A L U NCE RTA I N TY 1
Scenario Scenario DEVELOP SCENARIO NARRATIVES
1 2 4. Usually two scenarios are selected for development that will then be be used to test the robustness and veracity of future oriented options such as CRI TI CAL policies, strategies and programs that are directed U NCERTAI NTY 2 towards a future outcome. The scenario narratives are then developed, utilising the workshop outputs and supported by literature review and stakeholder Scenario Scenario interviews where possible. Narratives or storylines are 4 3 often used as quick and memorable ways to describe the scenarios. Importantly, the scenarios need to be reviewed to ensure they are plausible and internally consistent.
