Scenarios

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

AbstractÐThe purpose of the architecture evaluation of a software system is to analyze the architecture to identify potential risks and to verify that the quality requirements have been addressed in the design. This survey shows the state of the research at this moment, in this domain, by presenting and discussing eight of the most representative architecture analysis methods. The selection of the studied methods tries to cover as many particular views of objective reflections as possible to be derived from the general goal. The role of the discussion is to offer guidelines related to the use of the most suitable method for an architecture assessment process. We will concentrate on discovering similarities and differences between these eight available methods by making classifications, comparisons and appropriateness studies.

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and
feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decisionmaking processes work in specific contexts.

Within large integrative scenario studies, it is often problematic to fully link narrative storylines and quantitative models. This paper demonstrates the potential use of a highly participatory scenario development framework that involves a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods. The assumption is that the use of semi-quantitative methods will structure the participatory output, which provides a solid base for quantification. It should further facilitate the communication between stakeholders and modellers. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps is the main semi-quantitative method and has a central place in the proposed framework. The paper provides a detailed description of its implementation in participatory workshops, also because of a lack of documented testing of its implementation. We tested Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as part of the framework in two training sessions; both gave encouraging results. Results show that the tool provides a structured, semi-quantitative understanding of the system perceptions of a group of participants. Participants perceived the method as easy to understand and easy to use in a short period of time. This supports the hypothesis that Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can be used as part of a scenario development framework and that the new framework can help to bridge the gap between storylines and models.

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.

The rapid growth of renewable energy (RE) is disrupting and transforming the global energy system, especially the electricity industry. As a result, supporters of the politically powerful incumbent industries and others are critiquing the feasibility of large-scale electricity generating systems based predominantly on RE. Part of this opposition is manifest in the publication of incorrect myths about RE in scholarly journals, popular articles, media, websites, blogs and statements by politicians. The present article reviews the feasibility of large-scale electricity supplies that are predominantly renewable, including 100% renewable electricity (100RElec), and the technical, economic, institutional and political challenges that must be overcome in order to achieve 100RElec, which is the key to achieving 100% RE. We discuss specifically the motivation for the transition and the requirements of reliability, security and affordability, finding that the principal barriers to 100Elec are neither technological nor economic. We also find that the main criticisms published in scholarly articles and books contain factual errors, questionable assumptions, important omissions, internal inconsistencies, exaggerations of limitations and irrelevant arguments. Some widely publicized critiques select criteria that are inappropriate and irrelevant to the assessment of energy technologies, ignore key studies whose results contradict arguments in the critiques, and fail to assess the sum total of knowledge provided collectively by the published studies on 100RElec, but instead demand that each individual study address all the critiques' inappropriate criteria. We conclude that 100RElec is a technically and economically feasible global goal and that the barriers are primarily political, institutional and cultural.

Actors in competitive environments are bound to decide and act under conditions of uncertainty because they rarely have accurate foreknowledge of how their opponents will respond and when they will respond. Just as a competitor makes a move to improve their standing on a given variable relative to a target competitor, she should expect the latter to counteract with an iterative lagged asymmetric response, that is, with a sequence of countermoves (iteration) that is very different in kind from its trigger (asymmetry) and that will be launched at some unknown point in the future (time lag). The paper explicates the broad relevance of the newly proposed concept of " iterative lagged asymmetric responses " to the social study of temporality and to fields as diverse as intelligence and counterintelligence studies, strategic management, futures studies, military theory, and long-range planning. By bringing out in the foreground and substantiating the observation that competitive environments place a strategic premium on surprise, the concept of iterative lagged asymmetric responses makes a contribution to the never-ending and many-pronged debate about the extent to which the future can be predicted.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0961463X17752652

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what-if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water and the social system. Moreover, the two systems interact: society responds to events and the state of the water system changes in response to management. In this paper we discuss a transdisciplinary approach. Key elements in the concept are (1) the model of pressure, state, impact and response, (2) the Perspectives method to consider uncertainties of social and natural systems and (3) the evaluation of the system using transient scenarios in which we consider time series of trends, events and interaction between the water system and society. The effect analysis is executed with an integrated assessment meta-model based on simple cause–effect relations and response curves.

Growing scientific evidence shows that world energy resources are entering a period shaped by the depletion of high-quality fuels, whilst the decline of the easy-to-extract oil is a widely recognized ongoing phenomenon. The end of the era of cheap and abundant energy flows brings the issue of economic growth into question, stimulating research for alternatives as the de-growth proposal. The present paper applies the system dynamic global model WoLiM that allows economic, energy and climate dynamics to be analyzed in an integrated way. The results show that, if the growth paradigm is maintained, the decrease in fossil fuel extraction can only be partially compensated by renewable energies, alternative policies and efficiency improvements, very likely causing systemic energy shortage in the next decades. If a massive transition to coal would be promoted to try to compensate the decline of oil and gas and maintain economic growth, the climate would be then very deeply disturbed. The results suggest that growth and globalization scenarios are, not only undesirable from the environmental point of view, but also not feasible. Furthermore, regionalization scenarios without abandoning the current growth GDP focus would set the grounds for a pessimistic panorama from the point of view of peace, democracy and equity. In this sense, an organized material de-growth in the North followed by a steady state shows up as a valid framework to achieve global future human welfare and sustainability. The exercise qualitatively illustrates the magnitude of the challenge: the most industrialized countries should reduce, on average, their per capita primary energy use rate at least four times and decrease their per capita GDP to roughly present global average levels. Differently from the current dominant perceptions, these consumption reductions might actually be welfare enhancing. However, the attainment of these targets would require deep structural changes in the socioeconomic systems in combination with a radical shift in geopolitical relationships.

The Mediterranean region faces significant challenges to supply its growing population with food and living space. The region's potential to do so in the future is even more uncertain in the light of global change effects. Climate change will impact water availability in the region, which is already limited and often used at un-sustainable rates. To investigate the effects of global change and explore alternative development pathways of Mediterranean land use, we simulated two future scenarios with different land, water and biodiversity management transitions. We adopted a land systems approach, where land use and land cover are combined with data on land management, irrigation and livestock density, taking into account the characteristics of Mediterranean multifunctional landscapes, specific agricultural products, such as permanent crops, and irrigation water demands. Future land system changes were explored using the CLUMondo model for different development pathways of the region. We constrained the withdrawal of irrigation water based on existing freshwater resources. In a 'growth' scenario, we simulated a hypothetical future without consideration of environmental constraints and where food production and urban expansion are main priorities. The 'sustain-ability' scenario represents a future where limited water resources are extracted in a sustainable way and where areas of high biodiversity value are protected. The growth scenario projected significant intensification of land management, and loss of agro-silvo-pastoral mosaic systems. To achieve this, we calculate that the region would need to increase water withdrawal for irrigation significantly, resulting in increased pressure on freshwater resources. The sustainability scenario presents a way of increasing food production and at the same time improving the state of water resources, wetlands and traditional landscapes. Achieving this future would require improvements of yields of rain-fed systems and efficiencies of irrigated systems. The results indicate that coordinated environmental policy together with appropriate market access are needed to steer the regions land management towards a more sustainable future while ensuring food production.

Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and
probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of
methodological choice possibilities.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English
language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have
arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations
to open up the methodological space available.
Findings – The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature –
and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a
richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities.

a b s t r a c t Urban areas are expanding at a very fast rate worldwide. The task of managing urban growth has increased in both scope and complexity and has become one of the most important challenges in the 21st century. This article aims to examine the urban development and optimize spatial patterns of future urban growth allocation based on scenarios to provide a basis for urban environmental management in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. We developed an artificial neural network based urban growth allocation model for the valley. This predictive model optimizes spatial patterns of future urban growth allocation under the three scenarios, i.e., spontaneous, environment-protecting, and resources-saving. The predicted spatial patterns mirrors where and how the urban development in the valley is likely heading by 2050 and provides a crucial information on land availability for future land development projects. The results suggest that the current urban development process is in critical stage where urban and peri-urban areas will face unprecedented stress on land resources costing river and forest ecosystems and other environmentally sensitive areas by the next decade. Rural vicinities will face regional imbalance on urban growth allocations. However, there are still possibilities to improve urban environment and manage the potential land demands in the valley by enforcing the urban growth policies strictly and altering the current growth trend as revealed in the environment-protecting and resources-saving scenarios.

Quantitative point forecasts of energy and emissions have experienced difficulty with responding to uncertainty. Accuracy issues arise even in the short term with consequences for policy. The technique of scenario analysis is increasingly applied in scientific inquiry on the long term but it also has utility in the short term. This paper presents a discussion of the use of forecasts for prediction and proposes integrated or ´hybrid´ exploratory qualitative and quantitative scenarios in its stead. Various methodological issues are explored towards formulation of a scenario development process. Integrated scenarios structure thinking on the future, bound uncertainty, document important assumptions, aid communication, widen perspectives, can explore new dynamics and permit the exploration of ´softer´ issues in development paths such as governance, social and cultural drivers. These can be crucial to outcomes but are not captured by quantitative approaches alone. An example of the technique employed to construct integrated scenarios for Ireland to 2020 is presented, which as a process is applicable with diverse quantitative techniques. The advancement of more broad holistic perspectives on development and processes of change is policy relevant in all states, for which purpose integrated scenarios are an ideal analysis and mainstreaming tool even on short time scales.

Despite the high profile of climate change in scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has thus far failed to commit to an emission reduction target based on the latest science. Given Russia is a key supplier of fossil fuels, a major greenhouse gas emitter, and climate impacts on its vast territory likely to have far-reaching consequences, this contextual research shows that the country's current policies fall woefully short of what is required to implement the Paris Agreement. To support Russia in developing informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate energy policies, this paper presents low-carbon emission trajectories commensurate with the 2 °C goal, using stakeholder-informed backcasting. The results illustrate that even if Russia's CO2 emissions peak in 2017, a reduction rate of at least 9% per year between 2020 and 2030 is required to meet a 2°C budget constraint. These sustained rates are in excess of anything achieved globally or, indeed, deemed possible within most studies. Such emission reductions would involve unprecedented material changes to Russia's energy system, including both rapidly cutting energy demand and building extensive low-carbon infrastructures. Nevertheless, failure to transform Russia's existing policies will likely have global repercussions for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals.

Different mechanisms drive land use and land cover changes (LUCC). This paper presents an exploratory analysis aimed at understanding the complex dynamics of LUCC based on farmers' intentions when they are faced with four scenarios with the time horizon of 2025: (1) A0-current social and economic trend; (2) A1-intensified agricultural production; (3) A2-reduced agricultural production; and (4) B0-increasing demand for urban development. LUCC models are applied to a Torres Vedras (Portugal) case study. This territory is located in a peri-urban area near Lisbon dominated by forest and agricultural land, which has been suffering considerable urban pressure in the last decades. Farmers-major agents of agricultural land use change-were interviewed to obtain their LUCC intentions according to the scenarios studied. To model LUCC a Cellular automata-Markov chain approach was applied. Our results suggest that significant LUCC will occur depending on their intentions in the different scenarios. The highlights are: (1) the highest growth in permanently irrigated land in the A1 scenario; (2) the biggest drop in non-irrigated arable land, and the highest growth in forest in the A2 scenario; and (3) the greatest urban growth was recognized in the B0 scenario. To verify if the fitting simulations performed well, techniques to measure agreement and quantity-allocation disagreements were applied.These outcomes could provide decision-makers with the capacity to observe different possible futures in 'what if' scenarios , allowing them to anticipate future uncertainties, and consequently allowing them the possibility to choose the more desirable future.

This paper examines the dominant scenario of the communist manager's social role, using the metaphor of the theatre. Through an extensive retrospective study, mainly by means of a critical analysis of the press focusing on dominant symbols, or symbols created and transmitted by the political authorities. The scenarios or role scripts consisting of these symbols are first identified and then interpreted. The study focused primarily on Poland, but the observations have a certain relevance also for other ex-communist countries. The aim is to understand how the role developed, and also how it was meant to be received by the "audience" at whom the authorities were directing the symbols. Finally the implications of the performance of managerial roles in the past for the creation of new roles after 1989 are discussed. This historical context of contemporary managerial roles should be taken into consideration by institutions involved in management education in Poland.

In a turbulent environment characterized by unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp oil price decline, and dramatic economic crises, many organizations face not only challenges but also an “identity crisis” as they are unable to respond to the question "who are we as an organization?" Some organizations may concurrently hold multiple identities without being clear on whether these are shared and agreed upon, and on their role in potentially disruptive futures. In response to this challenge and addressing a methodological gap in the broader futures and foresight field, we draw on both futures and foresight as well as management and organization literature to propose a new organizational foresight method: Identity Wind Tunneling (IWT). Designed as an enhancement of wind tunneling approaches, IWT allows an organization to understand, test, and manage multiple organizational identities. Furthermore, IWT facilitates the alignment of organizational identities across a range of possible futures created during a scenario planning process with the ultimate goal of finding a strategic identity. This represents the central, enduring, and distinctive role that the organization embodies while pursuing a long-term and holistic strategic direction that is robust across all scenarios. The strategic identity either clarifies or reimagines the identity of the organization. The paper provides a step-by-step explanation of how to implement IWT and presents a case study of its application. The method is also presented with a series of open-source templates created on the whiteboard collaborative platform Miro (https://miro.com/app/board/ o9J_kqakY js=/).

Future land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis has been increasingly applied to spatial planning instruments in
the last few years. Nevertheless, stakeholder participation in the land use modelling process and analysis is
still low. This paper describes a methodology engaging stakeholders (from the land use planning, agriculture,
and forest sectors) in the building and assessment of future LUCC scenarios.We selected as case study the Torres
VedrasMunicipality (Portugal), a peri-urban region near Lisbon. Our analysis encompasses a participatoryworkshop
to analyse LUCCmodel outcomes, based on farmer LUCC intentions, for the following scenarios: A0 - current
social and economic trend (Business as Usual); A1 - regional food security; A2 - climate change; and B0 - farming
under urban pressure. This analysis allowed local stakeholders to develop and discuss their own views on the
most plausible future LUCC for the following land use classes: artificial surfaces, non-irrigated arable land, permanently
irrigated land, permanent crops and heterogeneous agricultural land, pastures, forest and semi-natural
areas, and water bodies and wetlands. Subsequently, we spatialized these LUCC views into a hybrid model (Cellular
Automata - Geographic Information Systems), identifying the most suitable land conversion areas. Werefer
to this model, implemented in NetLogo, as the stakeholder-LUCC model.
The results presented in this paper model where, when, why, and what conversions may occur in the future in
regard to stakeholders' points of view. These outcomes can better enable decision-makers to perform land use
planning more efficiently and develop measures to prevent undesirable futures, particularly in extreme events
such as scenarios of food security, climate change, and/or farming under pressure.

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California's water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as " lowest of the low " and " highest of the high " anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm 3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm 3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm 3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm 3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm 3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Widespread use of promising solar energy is an integral attribute of governments toward global efforts in mitigating future emission and reducing the fossil fuel consumption trajectory. However, the outlook of solar energy development at the strategic level is driven by inherent uncertainties in a long-term perspective. As these unpredictable volatilities come into play, they heavily influence the future trends formed by a range of exoge-nous and endogenous factors including Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal (PESTEL). This study aimed at identifying, characterizing, and analyzing influential PESTEL factors shaping the dynamics of Solar Photovoltaics (SPV) in an uncertain environment. For this purpose, the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) method was employed for the case of Iran to investigate how involved factors dynamically interact and collectively behave in system. A participatory stepwise framework was developed consisting of three steps by conducting a survey and two workshops with the participation of multidisciplinary stakeholders. Aa a result, a semi-quantitative model was formed in an integrated FCM comprising 31 interwoven concepts. To further outline possible future trends, five key concepts were determined that explored four plausible projections of Iran's SPV sector. The scenario outcome suggests that the industry is profoundly affected by external economic and political factors. Two scenarios "Cornered in a Dead-End" and "At Wits' End" project that, by 2030, the sector experiences a declining growth trend. "The Period of Tolerance" scenario does not envisage a dramatic change from the current trajectory, while in only "Blue Sky" the country's SPV sector anticipate a moderate growth.

We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future.

Use Cases are widely seen as suitable for defining functional requirements for software. There is controversy about the suitability of Use Cases for Systems other than Software, and for Non-Functional Requirements (NFRs). This centres on the variety of methods proposed for use case analysis, the range of uses proposed for use cases in different contexts, and the perceived imprecision in some of the proposed approaches.

Despite the recent popularity of multi-scale scenario exercises, a review of the literature reveals missing elements regarding local-scale scenario-building. Scenarios built at the local level are often downscaled from higher-scale scenarios or developed within the boundary conditions of global and national scales without taking local circumstances
thoroughly into account. On this background, this paper discusses the issue of scale in local scenario development and develops a formal methodological approach for local-scale
scenario-building in general. The paper underlines in particular the role of local agency in coupling the larger scale and the local scale. To better illustrate how the proposed approach helps in designing local scenarios, lessons drawn from two local scenario development practices are also employed. Hence, the paper contributes to the formalisation of local scenario-building, which is believed to enhance the validity and credibility of local scenario outputs in the policy sphere.

Over the past few years the sharing economy has grown tremendously, driven in part by traveler desires for authentic and unique experiences. In response to these modern changes, peer-to-peer (P2P) marketplaces (e.g. Airbnb) are seeking additional revenue streams, expanding beyond room rentals into guided tours, recreational, and cultural experiences. Rather than act solely as sharing economy lodging establishments, in the near future providers will increasingly supply authentic and immersive vacation experiences, acting as a host, guide, concierge and travelling companion to their guests. This paper explores the ability of P2P providers to command premium pricing for authentic and immersive P2P offerings. The paper details this possibility, listing drivers of change before positing a scenario that helps envision a future in which P2P providers seize this opportunity. Finally, the paper closes with limitations, practical implications and future research recommendations.

Author: Joachim H. Spangenberg.
Abstract: In situations of uncertainty, scenarios serve as input for scientifically informed decision making. However, past experience shows that not all scenarios are treated equally and we hypothesise that only those based on a world view shared by scientists and decision makers are perceived as credible and receive full attention of the respective group of decision makers. While intuitively plausible, this hypothesis has not been analysed by quantitative correlation analyses, so instead of drawing on quantitative data the paper analyses the archetypal scenarios developed in the ALARM project to substantiate the plausibility by a comparative analysis of world views, value systems and policy orientations. Shock scenarios are identified as a means to explore the possibility space of future developments beyond the linear developments models and most scenario storylines suggest. The analysis shows that the typical scenarios are based on mutually exclusive assumptions. In conclusion, a comparison of storylines and empirical data can reveal misperceptions and the need to rethink world views as a necessary step to open up to new challenges. Deeply held beliefs will make this transition unlikely to happen without severe crises, if not dedicated efforts to explicate the role of world views for scenarios and policies are undertaken.

The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times is a new method for foresight and futures researchers and practitioners. Designed and developed to explore the complexity, chaos, and contradictions of postnormal times and what might come next, the three tomorrows method uses a multi-layered approach to situate and analyze trends, emerging issues, and imaginings of the future(s), including complex, horizonspecific forecasts. In this paper, we provide a theoretical overview of the key concepts underlying our approach, including the three forms of ignorance and uncertainty as well as the Menagerie of postnormal potentialities, which we developed as a mechanism for challenging deeply held convictions, illuminating entrenched contradictions, and enlivening novel considerations.

Over the last 20 years, transfer of the management of natural resources to local populations has been a major trend in the tropics. Many of these initiatives today incorporate the development of monitoring systems based on Criteria and Indicators (C&I), used to gauge environmental, socio-economic, and institutional consequences over a long period of time. The design of C&I at a local level involves combining scientific expertise with traditional ecological knowledge. There are numerous methods of merging these two branches of knowledge and developing a local monitoring system. The difficulty lies in setting up these local monitoring systems. A review of the literature available demonstrates that the handing over of monitoring systems to local communities has rarely been successful. In almost every case study, when the donor agency initiating the process withdrew, monitoring was either much less intensive or came to a complete stop. Despite this blatant deficiency local monitoring systems constitute an almost compulsory component of any donor-funded program/project dealing with sustainable management of natural resources. In our views, the real implementation of C&I by and for communities can only be achieved if there is a genuine devolution of management power, including responsibilities and benefits, to local stakeholders. Unless they link environmental changes to the communities' own management decisions, formal participative monitoring systems will continue to fail.

Little has contributed more to the emergence of today's world of financial globalization than the setup of the international monetary system. In its current shape, it has a hierarchical structure with the US-Dollar (USD) at the top and various other monetary areas forming a multilayered periphery to it. A key feature of the system is the creation of USD offshore-a feature that in the 1950s and 60s developed in co-evolution with the Bretton Woods System and in the 1970s replaced it. Since the 2007-9 Financial Crisis, this 'Offshore US-Dollar System' has been backstopped by the Federal Reserve's network of swap lines which are extended to other key central banks. This systemic evolution may continue in the decades to come, but other systemic arrangements are possible as well and have historical precedents. This article discusses four trajectories that would lead to different setups of the international monetary system by 2040, taking into account how its hierarchical structure and the role of offshore credit money creation may evolve. In addition to a continuation of USD hegemony, we present the emergence of competing monetary blocs, the formation of an international monetary federation and the disintegration into an international monetary anarchy.

This exploratory project emerged from the question, "do different scenario building methods generate distinctively different outputs?" Using base data from a completed scenario project, the authors and volunteer participants re-processed the raw and filtered drivers and interview data through four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. We retained the issue question from the original project ("what are possible futures for civil society?") as our focus. This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences.